Technical Analysis of Silver

[highroller4321]

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/a ... 4913002747


This article is a few years old but the fundamental findings make me think that silver might not be going up that much for the next several years.

[68Camaro]

Duuno but we hit peak silver 2 years ago, not what they guessed in 2013.

[highroller4321]

Duuno but we hit peak silver 2 years ago, not what they guessed in 2013.

I think the production numbers are the most interesting.

[InfleXion]

I found this graphic I was messing with last year, and it reminds me that silver is the long game. People often say better late than never. How about better early than late? It's still early, and some people seem to think the party is already over. BitCoin is going to be passed out by dinner time.

[IdahoCopper]

This makes sense. I was wondering where/when to put the Bitcoin profits.

[68Camaro]

Duuno but we hit peak silver 2 years ago, not what they guessed in 2013.

I think the production numbers are the most interesting.

I skimmed it a bit more completely and while still skimming (a detailed review would have to dig into each model and how they were applied and interacted) it appears to be a very complete attempt to model the extremely complex interactions underway. I believe their long-term trend results are right on the mark. I was overly critical of their miss for peak silver, because the models can't be that accurate on the time scale. They are having to estimate a lot of the inputs, and world events can create a short-term difference between model and real life, but I think the message and trend is solid. (And matches the intuition of many long-term market followers.) If a human lifetime was 300 years and I was still young now, I would be personally very concerned about the results showing that we're running out of key minerals early in my mid-life. This is about the world 7, 10, 30, 50 years from now. The world in 2100 is going to be very different from the world we're in now.

I may not benefit due to my stock from the eventual shortages to come, but my children hopefully will (they have been conditioned to not sell unless it is a life emergency - hopefully that will stick with them after I"m gone).

This type of modeling easily explains why JPM might actually be looking at the long-game themselves. If they have come to believe this type of modeling (or perhaps have even refined it further in private data and even more sophisticated models - and maybe they are seeing a crisis point coming even sooner), then what Ted Butler alleges might be true, and would explain why they have accumulated a massive physical stockpile.

[Bigjohn]

I truly believe gold and silver will make a huge comeback....................it might take some time though, probably years. We will have another recession and all of the sudden everyone will be talking about PMs. Stack before that happens