highroller4321 wrote:68Camaro wrote:Duuno but we hit peak silver 2 years ago, not what they guessed in 2013.
I think the production numbers are the most interesting.
I skimmed it a bit more completely and while still skimming (a detailed review would have to dig into each model and how they were applied and interacted) it appears to be a very complete attempt to model the extremely complex interactions underway. I believe their long-term trend results are right on the mark. I was overly critical of their miss for peak silver, because the models can't be that accurate on the time scale. They are having to estimate a lot of the inputs, and world events can create a short-term difference between model and real life, but I think the message and trend is solid. (And matches the intuition of many long-term market followers.) If a human lifetime was 300 years and I was still young now, I would be personally very concerned about the results showing that we're running out of key minerals early in my mid-life. This is about the world 7, 10, 30, 50 years from now. The world in 2100 is going to be very different from the world we're in now.
I may not benefit due to my stock from the eventual shortages to come, but my children hopefully will (they have been conditioned to not sell unless it is a life emergency - hopefully that will stick with them after I"m gone).
This type of modeling easily explains why JPM might actually be looking at the long-game themselves. If they have come to believe this type of modeling (or perhaps have even refined it further in private data and even more sophisticated models - and maybe they are seeing a crisis point coming even sooner), then what Ted Butler alleges might be true, and would explain why they have accumulated a massive physical stockpile.
Posted: Thu Jan 18, 2018 5:18 pm