How much 90% Silver is left?

[Contradiction]

RecyclerSteve recommended that I read The Big Silver Melt. I am slowly making my way through it. If you have read it, what do you think of it?

Do market prices reflect the true value of the remaining 90%?

[pennypicker]

I'd venture to say that it would be a monumental task for smelters to melt down "just" the 1964 silver coins that are still out there--when it comes to books don't believe everything you read.

[smackvay]

My local coin shop just smelted 2-5 gallon buckets of 90% as they get more money out of it that way

[Country]

Here's an interesting article written in 1999:

AFTER THE MELTS: WHAT'S LEFT IN SILVER COINS?

https://www.pcgs.com/news/After-The-Melts-Whats-Left-In-Silver-Coins

Coen estimated that of all the silver coins produced by the United States Mint, only about one-quarter survived the ongoing melts. He confided that he himself sold refiners $400 million worth of fabricated silver, mostly silver coins, during the one-year period from July 1, 1979 to June 30, 1980 -- "and," he commented, "other guys were doing the same thing."

Hendrickson suggested that with silver dollars, at least, the melts may have had a positive aspect.

"They helped us get rid of a lot of the garbage dollars," he observed. "I'd say we got rid of 75 percent of the cull dollars -- and that was all to the good. It pruned the supply of dollars, so to speak; it made the ones that were left more collectible.

"With the other series, though, the melts went way beyond pruning. Everything was affected across the board. With Franklin halves, for instance, I'd hate to say how big a majority were melted, but I know the percentage was high."

[Contradiction]

I'd venture to say that it would be a monumental task for smelters to melt down "just" the 1964 silver coins that are still out there--when it comes to books don't believe everything you read.

The book says, for example:
1958 quarter: 7,335,652 minted & 1,809,000 maximum quantity remaining
1940 quarter: 35,715,246 minted & 8,929,000 maximum quantity remaining
1946 dime: 255,250,000 minted & 63,812,000 maximum quantity remaining
1964 half: 277,254,776 minted & 110,902,000 maximum quantity remaining
1964D half: 156,205,446 minted & 62,482,000 maximum quantity remaining

So if the author's data is correct, a lot were melted down. How can this data be verified?

[Contradiction]

My local coin shop just smelted 2-5 gallon buckets of 90% as they get more money out of it that way

Is it legal now to melt 90% coins?

[pennypicker]

I'd venture to say that it would be a monumental task for smelters to melt down "just" the 1964 silver coins that are still out there--when it comes to books don't believe everything you read.

The book says, for example:
1958 quarter: 7,335,652 minted & 1,809,000 maximum quantity remaining
1940 quarter: 35,715,246 minted & 8,929,000 maximum quantity remaining
1946 dime: 255,250,000 minted & 63,812,000 maximum quantity remaining
1964 half: 277,254,776 minted & 110,902,000 maximum quantity remaining
1964D half: 156,205,446 minted & 62,482,000 maximum quantity remaining

So if the author's data is correct, a lot were melted down. How can this data be verified?

All I can say is I was standing in those long lines at the Covina Coin Shop back in 1980 and nobody cared about the dates on 90%. During that time the "numismatic" aspect on 90% was thrown out the window and the dealers just dumped the coins that they purchased from customers in their bulk coin counting machines. The lines were long and the dealer and his employees didn't have the time or concern to search for better dates. And I would guess that when he sent off a bunch to the smelter the smelter didn't give a darn what the dates where either and I can guarantee you the smelter didn't take the time to log the dates of each coin. It was all about volume and profit and the author of that book can estimate all he wants but the fact is nobody has a clue as to how much 90% was melted nor is there anyway to verify the dates melted because dealers and smelters cared less during the hysteria of that time. I specifically remember someone standing in line in front of me selling to the owner of the coin store a stack of late '50's & early 60's proof sets at the price of spot and I asked the owner what he was going to do with them and he said he was going to open them and throw the dime, quarter & half into the smelter bag and put the penny and nickel in his register for use as regular change. The point I'm trying to make is there's still a massive amount of 90% out there and it isn't rare and won't be become rare during my lifetime. If it was even remotely rare then APMEX wouldn't have been selling it recently for just .29 cents over spot--all it is is bullion.

[Contradiction]

OK, I understand your point better now. Thanks.

[Recyclersteve]

I was just out of college in January, 1980 and remember going through all my silver coins to pull the good dates out first before taking the rest to the coin shop to sell. For quarters I remember pulling out 1955-D's and most mintmarked coins before 1940. Also, I pulled out some that were decent dates and had blazing lustre.

On one particular sale, I pulled out dimes, quarters and halves. Then, for the final sale in early 1980, I dipped into my silver dollar collection and determined that a bunch of them needed to be melted.

I agree that many did NOT have time to go through everything. On the other hand, there were refiners dealing with a two month or so backlog, so I can imagine there may have been some people (I would have volunteered to do this as a young whippersnapper) who may have gone through and catalogued a bag or two that were waiting in the long line to be melted. Something like this may have been done in the Big Silver Melt book. Dad may have told his teenage son to itemize the coins in a bag and watch the shop for him. It may have been too dangerous for Junior to work the melting operation itself.

A few more thoughts on this:

1. I remember buying a roll of 1958-P quarters a few years back for a modest premium above melt and considered it a bargain. The dealer only had one roll.

2. For those who did have time to go through rolls, I'd imagine that some may have operated this way. Look at Barber quarters, for instance, and only pull those out that have mintmarks. None of the P-mint quarters in the Barber series were valuable in the late 1970's/early 1980's. All the P-mints were therefore to be melted (possible exception: those in very high grades). That would then lead to the 1913-P quarter becoming quite a scarce issue. Also, the 1905's (all mints) have suddenly gone up sharply in price over the past 5-10 years or so. I'm guessing that many were melted back in the day and someone figured that out and started to hoard all of them in quantity. I'd love to see a study comparing the surviving amount of 1905's to the 1913-P's. If this were done in detail, the 1913-P (with exactly the same original mintage as the 1909-S-VDB penny (both had 484k minted), but now much less with all those quarters melted) could quickly become a $100-300 coin in just good condition. If I could recommend a coin to set aside a bunch of, the 1913-P would be right at the top of the list. If someone were to promote this on the Home Shopping Network or somewhere with a big audience, it would be very interesting how far and fast this one could go up. No I am not selling mine because I think they are way too cheap!

3. Note that what I said about Barber quarters doesn't hold true for dimes or halves. There were more valuable dimes (several from the 1890's) that likely would have survived the big melts. Ditto for the 1913, 1914 and 1915 P-mint halves. The point here is that one could have gone through a bunch of Barber quarters much faster than dimes or halves, since they only had to look at one side of the coin for many of them.

One shop I went to had 20-30 bags sitting on tables and the floor behind the counter. They also had an armed guard out front and the owner of the shop said that there was too much silver to put into his vaults! I remember when I watched the national news on TV (before the days of cable) that they had the price of gold and silver on the news every day for a while. It was certainly a very very interesting phenomenon to witness first hand.

By the way, I read the Merton book cover to cover at least a couple of times and liked it so much that I have created a Word document on my computer where I've typed some of the spectacular quotes from the book. It is one of the very best books of any kind that I have ever read in my life.

[Recyclersteve]

Another thought, and I don't remember this being covered in the Big Silver Melt- how much 40% silver is there left? Was much of that melted down in the 1979-1980 timeframe? Anyone have any info on this?

[Cu Penny Hoarder]

An interesting subject that has been debated for many years. I think a realistic assumption is at least half of all 90% coins have been melted down. No sense trying to get more specific than that because no one truly knows.

Premiums were still very low when silver dipped back to $14.40 last week. Yes, I bought I bought a couple more $100 FV bags. After I did that, premiums rose 50-100%. I don't think we'll ever see premiums that low again anytime soon. If the Ag price drops again, the premiums will only go higher.

I own so much 90% now it's ridiculous, but I simply cannot help myself... it's too damn cheap to NOT buy it!

[pennypicker]

OK, I understand your point better now. Thanks.

I would like to add that contrary to the tone of my previous post I do enjoy hoarding 90% and in fact 90% is my favorite bullion type due in part to its wonderful eye appeal when looking at a large pile of it, and due to the sentimental value it has for me as it brings back memories of my childhood back in the late '60s when you could still find a mercury dime or Franklin half in your change from time to time. What I don't do is buy 90% based on the notion of any current or future "perceived scarcity".

[bankmining]

I think what is sometimes overlooked in the frantic nature to sell silver, and silver coin in particular, back in 1980 was the fact that 50 dollars back then meant something a lot different than in 2011. I don’t doubt that a hell of a lot of coins were destroyed.

[Recyclersteve]

I do enjoy hoarding 90% and in fact 90% is my favorite bullion type due in part to its wonderful eye appeal when looking at a large pile of it, and due to the sentimental value it has for me as it brings back memories of my childhood back in the late '60s when you could still find a mercury dime or Franklin half in your change from time to time. What I don't do is buy 90% based on the notion of any current or future "perceived scarcity".

I totally agree with this. Now, you wonder as many of us age another 10, 20, 30 years what this will do to sentiment for 90% silver coins.

I love the 90%ers but have learned to like 90% silver American Eagles. Silver guru Ted Butler was pounding the table about SAE's many years ago and quoted a friend of his named Izzy (not sure who that is/was) for introducing him to SAE's. I know this is a thread about 90%- so I apologize for diverging from the pertinent topic.

[Recyclersteve]

Also, for those who feel left out by not being able to get a copy of The Big Silver Melt (128 pgs.), you can go to CopperCave.com (Nate from this website) and order a copy. The price (just under $30 with shipping included) is well worth it in my opinion. This is an out of print book that is hard to find.

And, no, I don't get any compensation from Nate for sending people to him.

[Contradiction]

Providentmetals.com is now selling $100 face value of 90% for $1074.65. Is this a good deal? Should I drain my bank account and get a bag? Do you guys think the price will go substantially lower than this? I'm mighty antsy over this deal.

[coppernickel]

Providentmetals.com is now selling $100 face value of 90% for $1074.65. Is this a good deal? Should I drain my bank account and get a bag? Do you guys think the price will go substantially lower than this? I'm mighty antsy over this deal.

Use your best judgement. The deal looks good, if you have the cash, go for it.

Treat debt like a plague.

There are smaller portions, more bite size than the whole elephant, available. RealCent is an excellent place to get some fair deals.

For me, now, that is too big a bite. New tires on the car come first, even with specie being clearly in "buy" territory.

[Contradiction]

Providentmetals.com is now selling $100 face value of 90% for $1074.65. Is this a good deal? Should I drain my bank account and get a bag? Do you guys think the price will go substantially lower than this? I'm mighty antsy over this deal.

Use your best judgement. The deal looks good, if you have the cash, go for it.

Treat debt like a plague.

There are smaller portions, more bite size than the whole elephant, available. RealCent is an excellent place to get some fair deals.

For me, now, that is too big a bite. New tires on the car come first, even with specie being clearly in "buy" territory.

Thanks for the advice. Just checked again. Now only $1070...save $4.65 from earlier. Maybe it's still going down some more?

[Recyclersteve]

Providentmetals.com is now selling $100 face value of 90% for $1074.65. Is this a good deal? Should I drain my bank account and get a bag? Do you guys think the price will go substantially lower than this? I'm mighty antsy over this deal.

I wouldn't drain my bank account. What do you do if some type of emergency comes up? What if your parents said "Something has happened. We need you to loan us $500 now, and it might be a long-term loan."

Now if you said you worked somewhere and had a $2,000 bonus check coming in the next few weeks, then that might be different. There are always exceptions like this that can change normal guidelines.

You might also consider taking, say, $500, and using it to buy half dollars in order to find some silver. Look at what Saabman has done with silver halves. Go through and add up the number he has gotten for free. It is probably in the neighborhood of 2-3 per box of $500, but with as much activity as he has (often 3 boxes a week or so), that can really add up. You will need to think through this strategy before doing it though. Is there a bank, credit union or other place in your area that will allow you to dump coins without paying a fee or having to roll the coins? If not, it may not be worth it.

[68Camaro]

Shorter version of same advice. Don't buy what you can't afford to lose. Wealth preservation consists of a balanced approach that includes self protection, food, water, shelter, essential medicines, and cash.

[Recyclersteve]

Let me add something else. Think in terms of “What would happen if it went down 10-20% pretty quickly after you bought it.” If your answer is that you would be hurting, then you would have been better off not buying in the first place. If, on the other hand, you say that whatever you bought the first time would be even more of a bargain and you could then afford to buy more, then you will have more staying power. I came up with this after speaking with a good number of people who had $5-20 million in the stock market and it made a big difference to me with my own personal trading. A key part of this is you don’t want to be all in on one thing and have to sit around for years with your fingers crossed hoping to get out at break even.

I’m quite certain there are people on this site who know what that feels like.

[charlie1023]

Providentmetals.com is now selling $100 face value of 90% for $1074.65. Is this a good deal? Should I drain my bank account and get a bag? Do you guys think the price will go substantially lower than this? I'm mighty antsy over this deal.

Like others here have already said, no need to buy the whole enchilada if it puts you at risk, buy what you can. I bought $20 FV 90% from Provident last night at 10.74x's face so no need to go heavy if you can't lay it out, they are selling 90% at slightly over spot by the dollar amount. Little by little wins the race and minimizes risk, buy an amount you are comfortable with. Happy stacking!

PS. Remember orders of $99 or over have free shipping as well!

[Contradiction]

OK, thanks everyone for the advice. I think I just wanted to be able to brag that I bought a pile of silver at its lowest price in 2018. I reduced my order down to enough to get free shipping. So that's all good.

But...thanks to 68Camaro I now need to worry about food and water and protection. Talked with my dad about that stuff some. He says it never hurts to get a few more shells and cans. Dad was raised poor and in really small towns so he knows what it's like to not have work or to go to bed a bit hungry.

[Cu Penny Hoarder]

Providentmetals.com is now selling $100 face value of 90% for $1074.65. Is this a good deal? Should I drain my bank account and get a bag? Do you guys think the price will go substantially lower than this? I'm mighty antsy over this deal.

While you debated and hesitated the Ag price rose 0.35 cents. Premiums also going up. Ag is cheapest hard asset on the planet. What are you waiting for?

Lots of penny pinchers here. You have extra discretionary cash?, then buy it.

[Contradiction]

Providentmetals.com is now selling $100 face value of 90% for $1074.65. Is this a good deal? Should I drain my bank account and get a bag? Do you guys think the price will go substantially lower than this? I'm mighty antsy over this deal.

While you debated and hesitated the Ag price rose 0.35 cents. Premiums also going up. Ag is cheapest hard asset on the planet. What are you waiting for?

Lots of penny pinchers here. You have extra discretionary cash?, then buy it.

Tell me about it. I'm kicking myself this afternoon. Oh well, maybe it will drop again.