Realcent.org

Several metals (base and precious) are doing very well now, yet this site is amazingly quiet about the subject.

Silver is currently above $16- hey it was in the high $13’s recently.

Nickel is $6.62- it is up steadily from around $5.30 in early January.

Gold broke above $1,400 recently.

How much more does everyone need to get excited?!? I hope this isn’t true, but is this site one where most people are deeply under water on their silver and not in a position to add to their holdings?

Mixed feelings, of course. Sure, let's talk about it, but be tempered when we do. a) I believe PMs have never left a long-term trend up; perspective is everything because if we could look back on today from 20 years from now I believe we would just see a continued persistent rise in value (drop in value of USD) with the last 8 years just being a blip and hold. b) I'm even or above water in everything significant except silver, where I "need" it to get beyond the low 20s in order to get to the technical surface (though I don't regret holding a store of value even if it is temporarily undervalued by others).

Why are my feelings mixed?

1) it needs to become a mid-term trend (multi-month, to start, >12 months to really show itself as a return to a longer term trend) in order to validate my long-term beliefs; short-term blips don't excite me a lot.

2) if it does become a mid-term trend (again) soon I believe that will be because other things are turning down, so while I do believe that is inevitable we are also approaching a time where (maybe not the next time, but eventually) when the world economy porpoises down it won't be able to re-surface without a complete reset of some type (which are never easy, and could be devastating to many). Thus my mixed feelings. It's hard to feel good about being validated when the result is destruction for many.

Yes, what Rich said (well).

I might like to add: Some people feel superstitious If they say, "YAY!" then it goes down. If they say that they believe that it will go up huge, then it drops precipitously. So, I think a lot of people avoid posting at all because they are afraid of being wrong on the public stage. I'm not afraid to say it, so here it goes:

SILVER IS GOING TO MAKE NEW HIGHS IN TERMS OF ANY FIAT CURRENCY

I just don't know when

I never thought PMs would come back strong so quickly. Past iterations of the resurgence of PMs seem to have been on 20-30 year duration. I am glad, but I need to see more to be sure this is truly the real move. Accumulation of PMs when premiums are low is the way to go; the premiums are still low because most folks have not seen it yet. I'd say risk/reward won't get much better than this if you've got some cash to diversify into PMs.

And Kitco is showing silver up yet another 2%+ today... Currently showing bid at $16.30.

I'm excited to see it go up, but honestly I don't expect much. 2016 was pretty impressive at the time, but in the end it didn't change anything. We're nowhere near that level yet. I'll get really excited if it can stay over $20 for a while.

its been over 6 months since ive bought any silver ...

There is certainly a record now in my world. I bought silver during a 4th of July weekend sale. And for once, it didn't tank right afterwards.

It doesn't seem that long ago when silver for months was moving up and down within the $16 to $17.25 range. And here we are again entering that same price range so for this reason silver at $16.40 doesn't excite me at all....when it finally gets back up to $18 then I will start to get "somewhat" excited and even then I will find more interest in the upcoming football season. When silver gets to $20 then I'll get excited!!!

chris6084 wrote:There is certainly a record now in my world. I bought silver during a 4th of July weekend sale. And for once, it didn't tank right afterwards.

I feel ya.I bought the majority of my stack a few years back when silver was $30 and all the dealers told me "its got nowhere to go but up."

Still, it's fun to look at and I can just hope the market explodes before my kids hit college .

pennypicker wrote:It doesn't seem that long ago when silver for months was moving up and down within the $16 to $17.25 range. And here we are again entering that same price range so for this reason silver at $16.40 doesn't excite me at all....when it finally gets back up to $18 then I will start to get "somewhat" excited and even then I will find more interest in the upcoming football season. When silver gets to $20 then I'll get excited!!!

I feel the same way. Chart wise, $26 is a strong resistance point and is the main hurdle. After it breaks above that, Ag may reach $50 rather quickly. Going to sell a few 100oz bars at $50.

Cu Penny Hoarder wrote:

pennypicker wrote:It doesn't seem that long ago when silver for months was moving up and down within the $16 to $17.25 range. And here we are again entering that same price range so for this reason silver at $16.40 doesn't excite me at all....when it finally gets back up to $18 then I will start to get "somewhat" excited and even then I will find more interest in the upcoming football season. When silver gets to $20 then I'll get excited!!!

I feel the same way. Chart wise, $26 is a strong resistance point and is the main hurdle. After it breaks above that, Ag may reach $50 rather quickly. Going to sell a few 100oz bars at $50.

I remember that $26 support level very well. Silver had been trending downward but support kept kicking in at $26. The owner of the local coin shop and I were discussing it and he said that he believed silver would eventually break through $26 and reach the low 20's. He added that if it gets real close to $20 he would then back up the truck. I don't know if he ever did back it up but it turns out it would have been a very costly move.

pennypicker wrote:

Cu Penny Hoarder wrote:

pennypicker wrote:It doesn't seem that long ago when silver for months was moving up and down within the $16 to $17.25 range. And here we are again entering that same price range so for this reason silver at $16.40 doesn't excite me at all....when it finally gets back up to $18 then I will start to get "somewhat" excited and even then I will find more interest in the upcoming football season. When silver gets to $20 then I'll get excited!!!

I feel the same way. Chart wise, $26 is a strong resistance point and is the main hurdle. After it breaks above that, Ag may reach $50 rather quickly. Going to sell a few 100oz bars at $50.

I remember that $26 support level very well. Silver had been trending downward but support kept kicking in at $26. The owner of the local coin shop and I were discussing it and he said that he believed silver would eventually break through $26 and reach the low 20's. He added that if it gets real close to $20 he would then back up the truck. I don't know if he ever did back it up but it turns out it would have been a very costly move.

LCS owners usually pull their inventory rather than sell at a loss. They sit on it until the price goes back up. This is what my LCS guy does.

Cu Penny Hoarder wrote:

pennypicker wrote:

Cu Penny Hoarder wrote:
LCS owners usually pull their inventory rather than sell at a loss. They sit on it until the price goes back up. This is what my LCS guy does.

Dealers can also hedge their metals exposure by having a futures account.

And silver has cleared $17 while gold cleared $1,500- a six year high.

If someone wants to see the opposite, look at zinc. It was $1.35ish early this year and has gone down steadily to where it is now $1.02/lb. If I knew a good way to speculate on zinc, I’d be willing to bet some (not all but some) on zinc finding support near $1/lb.

Let me add that (per Bloomberg) September silver surged 75.1 cents/oz. (almost 4.6%) to finish at $17.196. This marks the largest one day gain (on a dollar basis) since 9/6/16 and largest on a percentage basis since July, 2016 according to FactSet data.

December Comex gold finished up $35.40 (up 2.4%) at $1,519.60, the highest since 2013 based on most-active contracts (whatever that means) per Dow Jones Market Data.

Notice that silver (up 4.6%) was up quite a bit more on a percentage basis than gold (2.4%). Silver often outperforms and underperforms gold whether the two are going up or down, so there is nothing shocking there. Now I'm gonna talk out of the other side of my mouth- YTD gold is up 18.5% and silver just 9.3%.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/gold- ... yptr=yahoo

It's hard for me to get excited about inflation, because that's what I view PM prices as a reflection of. I've invested out of what I consider due diligence, but would be perfectly happy to be wrong, because high metal prices are not good for the common person. I'd rather have everybody able to keep their savings than having a homelessness crisis, but that seems to be the way things are going.

If it were me from 10 years ago looking at today's prices, I'd probably start getting excited at $30 silver and $1600 gold, more so at $40 silver and $1800 gold. The last time we saw those prices there was some global instability in Libya back in 2011. Incidentally that scenario seems to be occurring again. So much for getting rid of Gadaffi. My spidey sense says the powder keg is pretty full.

I meant to add that nickel cleared $7/lb. Closed today at $7.12 per Kitco Metals. Was actually above $7.50 in our premarket hours either Wed. or Thurs. If only storage didn’t take so much space...