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I think I looked and silver was up about $.20 this morning. Then I looked less than an hour later and it was down $.30. Did TPTB manipulate and make a lot of profit this morning? Do any posters on here take advantage and 'buy on the drop'? Or is it a sign that silver will fall further?

If they are manipulating anything it is the USD. Which took a turn up along with the market on news that trump is delaying tariffs.

Catfish4u wrote:I think I looked and silver was up about $.20 this morning. Then I looked less than an hour later and it was down $.30. Did TPTB manipulate and make a lot of profit this morning? Do any posters on here take advantage and 'buy on the drop'? Or is it a sign that silver will fall further?

You are talking about a total move of about 3%. That isn't enough to excite a lot of people, unless of course they are daytraders.

There is a saying "One day does not a trend make." You can't get too excited about a big move up or down in a single day. That said, there are things to look for and I'm being very simplistic when I write about this. One thing I look at is volume. For silver I use the volume of the stock (actually it is a silver ETF- exchange traded fund) traded under the symbol SLV. If silver is moving up or down, the move will have more meaning if it is accompanied by big volume. So, let's look at what SLV did today.

SLV (the silver ETF) closed at $16.08, up 21 cents. That was ok, but I'd have thought a bigger move would have been more appropriate on a day when the Dow was down about 800 points. Volume was very solid- 33 million shares were traded today vs. an average of 14 million. I look for volume of at least 50% more than usual to help confirm significant up or down moves.

Another thing is confirmation. If a stock (or metal if you will) makes a new high or low, I'd like to see confirmation the following day. Confirmation here means that the item hits a higher high or lower low the following day, again with good volume. Often times you will get mixed signals which include:

1) Volume was above normal, but not by much (not enough to be truly significant)
2) Huge volume but the security closes the day near unchanged

And there are many many more items to consider. Nobody knows for sure whether this is the real move. It is a little like predicting an earthquake. We may know that California is overdue for a really big one in the San Francisco Bay Area, but trying to guess when it will actually occur is very, very difficult. Otherwise they would have warning sirens just like they do for tornadoes.

There is much much more. You have to understand how to look at charts with 50 day moving averages and 200 day moving averages, overbought and oversold indicators, and perhaps dozens more items. It is also important to understand currency moves and how they affect precious metals, but that is beyond the scope of this post (which is already long enough).

And there are lots of hidden agendas. Someone talking about silver and gold being ready to breakout could be someone who is getting up in years and would absolutely love to sell their piles to pay for expenses. Or someone younger who doesn't really believe in what they are preaching, but is just looking to make a quick buck. You just never know.

I think that perhaps the one thing that is best to get a handle on is your own personal situation. What is your appetite for risk? Do you tend to be a person who goes all in when you buy something and then gets clobbered when it goes down 10%-20% and it might make sense to actually buy more (since it is on sale)? Are you patient enough to hold onto silver or gold for perhaps 10-20 years? Are you disciplined enough to put only what you can afford to lose into an investment?

Bitcoin was a great example of what they call the FOMO (fear of missing out) trade. Many people who bought bitcoin purchased near the highs and got clobbered when it came down. Some of these people got hurt so badly they may never have the gumption to speculate on something again, even when it make sense.

Good luck with whatever you do.

Catfish4u wrote:I think I looked and silver was up about $.20 this morning. Then I looked less than an hour later and it was down $.30. Did TPTB manipulate and make a lot of profit this morning? Do any posters on here take advantage and 'buy on the drop'? Or is it a sign that silver will fall further?

It could get hit again and again all the way back down to $14, but so what. In 5-10 years that move will be a tiny blip on the chart. Physical PMs are not a trade, they are a store of value and l-o-n-g term insurance against currency devaluation/collapse.

Silver is down $.46 this morning to $17.63. I would take this as a buying opportunity if I had the extra funds.

Silver.com only has 3 Sunshine Mint rounds in stock. I went to Provident metals and was going to purchase 90% only to find out our new governor has placed a sales tax on 'silver bullion'. That was a deal breaker and I will hold off for now. 7% or whatever it is sales tax would be a huge burden to overcome. Is there a site that is updated for what states charge sales tax? Also, I utilize https://comparesilverprices.com/ for comparing prices for different companies. I think I found that link on this site.

Cu Penny Hoarder wrote:'? Physical PMs are not a trade, they are a store of value and l-o-n-g term insurance against currency devaluation/collapse.

I think that is the mindset of most posters on here. Although, I think tptb like G.S., J.P.M, etc perform a lot of 'day trading' and also purchase options for taking great advantages of these 'market moves'. Am I alone in that belief?

Catfish4u wrote:Silver is down $.46 this morning to $17.63. I would take this as a buying opportunity if I had the extra funds.

Still a decent buy here if holding long term, but my target for this pullback is $16.50. Will buy another 100oz when/if it gets there.

Catfish4u wrote:

Cu Penny Hoarder wrote:'? Physical PMs are not a trade, they are a store of value and l-o-n-g term insurance against currency devaluation/collapse.

I think that is the mindset of most posters on here. Although, I think tptb like G.S., J.P.M, etc perform a lot of 'day trading' and also purchase options for taking great advantages of these 'market moves'. Am I alone in that belief?

Don't know about GS, but JPM has accumulated the greatest physical silver hoard since Buffet's and the Hunt Bros. Estimates are over 150 million ounces. Gee, you think they know something?

Cu Penny Hoarder wrote: JPM has accumulated the greatest physical silver hoard since Buffet's and the Hunt Bros. Estimates are over 150 million ounces. Gee, you think they know something?

I've heard this line so many times that it is making me skeptical. How would this private info ever be leaked unless JPM wanted it to be? Why would they want it leaked? Perhaps they have a huge long position and an even bigger short position. So, in other words, they are telling you part of the story (as a former president whose last name rhymed with Hinton used to do).

And JPM may be playing the two positions against each other. It may not make sense to you to be long and short at the same time. But JPM is a different animal. Don't underestimate them.

Recyclersteve wrote:

Cu Penny Hoarder wrote: JPM has accumulated the greatest physical silver hoard since Buffet's and the Hunt Bros. Estimates are over 150 million ounces. Gee, you think they know something?

I've heard this line so many times that it is making me skeptical. How would this private info ever be leaked unless JPM wanted it to be? Why would they want it leaked? Perhaps they have a huge long position and an even bigger short position. So, in other words, they are telling you part of the story (as a former president whose last name rhymed with Hinton used to do).

And JPM may be playing the two positions against each other. It may not make sense to you to be long and short at the same time. But JPM is a different animal. Don't underestimate them.

It's true. There are too many insiders that know what's going on. Yes, they probably have shorts on too, especially since it went up 3-4 bucks rather quickly... the chart indicators were very overbought.

Bottom line... silver cannot stay at these bargain basement prices forever. I'm buying more at $16.50

Cu Penny Hoarder wrote:

Recyclersteve wrote:

Cu Penny Hoarder wrote: JPM has accumulated the greatest physical silver hoard since Buffet's and the Hunt Bros. Estimates are over 150 million ounces. Gee, you think they know something?

I've heard this line so many times that it is making me skeptical. How would this private info ever be leaked unless JPM wanted it to be? Why would they want it leaked? Perhaps they have a huge long position and an even bigger short position. So, in other words, they are telling you part of the story (as a former president whose last name rhymed with Hinton used to do).

And JPM may be playing the two positions against each other. It may not make sense to you to be long and short at the same time. But JPM is a different animal. Don't underestimate them.

It's true. There are too many insiders that know what's going on. Yes, they probably have shorts on too, especially since it went up 3-4 bucks rather quickly... the chart indicators were very overbought.

Bottom line... silver cannot stay at these bargain basement prices forever. I'm buying more at $16.50

YES!!!!!....yes! yes! yes!!!
that'a the BULL SPIRIT we need!!!!!!!!!!!

I had thought JPM was the steward of SLV in which case they need people to know they have the phys to keep faith in their paper. I also thought they had liquidated their short position among the big 5 a few years ago so that they alone wouldn't bear the brunt of a price boost. I'm not real sure about the current state of things though. As for GS they were responsible for junk bonds that ruined Greece and much of the EU, and seem to often make contrarian recommendations to make money off their followers, but haven't seen them have much to do with silver.

Catfish4u wrote:Silver.com only has 3 Sunshine Mint rounds in stock. I went to Provident metals and was going to purchase 90% only to find out our new governor has placed a sales tax on 'silver bullion'. That was a deal breaker and I will hold off for now. 7% or whatever it is sales tax would be a huge burden to overcome. Is there a site that is updated for what states charge sales tax? Also, I utilize https://comparesilverprices.com/ for comparing prices for different companies. I think I found that link on this site.

Here is a site with some pretty comprehensive sales tax info by state.

https://thecoinologist.com/sales-tax-st ... breakdown/

I don't see dates listed for when the information was added, so call in advance before making purchases in case laws have changed. Also, you might consider bookmarking this thread so you can find it more easily in the future.

Good luck.