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Well Im feeling a little lightheaded about the price of silver these days,folks....wheres the pullback gonna be why didnt i buy more last week Are the powers that be loosing thier ability to hold down the price of silver as a direct result of the weakening dollar?I never really understood the manipulation stuff,much as I try to read up on it....all I know is were seeing some real gains this week..I gotta go look at my stach

Its just the end of the month run-up for the futures contracts.

Some contract holders really prefer not to default, so they run up the price of Ag at the last week of every month, so they can pay the demands for metal, instead of rollovers.

Sure is running up! 38++

Short silver at $38.03.

I think besides the end of the month futures contract issue; the very insecure global political economy with the over extension of the US military, Germany breaking the NATO alliance, the middle east mass instability, more than 30 million people in the greater Tokyo area getting irradiated, and Portugal not wanting to play ball with the IMF banksters certainly adds fuel to the on-fire precious metal markets. The world is getting crazier and less stable. Silver just might hit 50 bucks rather soon. It keeps surprising me!

I disagree. I think that this rapid rise in silver is being fueled by speculation.
Surfing on the speculative wave can leave you wiped out fast...
I think everything you have mentioned is priced into the market, and although we may see another leg up in this bull market, silver has extended itself far from its fundamentals.
Looks like silver has been in a "hot potato" market since 12:30...We are now at $37.46...all of silver gains for the day have been wiped away, now.

Watch the $USD. It is currently 75.67 and looking weak. If the $USD breaks support right here and tumbles lower, speculators will push SILVER to $40 fast. If you're short SILVER when this occurs, which is very probable, you will get CRUSHED.

I'm thinking we are going to see a bounce off the $USD support...Euro is looking very weak lately. We are down to $37.02.
If the bounce off $USD support happens, the speculative silver run up will be pummeled, at least in the short term.
Congrats, JFF!

The $USD is going to move. I guess we'll see which direction it will move real soon.

From zerohedge and reason for resulting plunge...

And Like Clockwork, CME Hikes Silver Margins Halting Surge

In tried and true fashion, just as Silver was about to viciously destabilize the global capital markets as it surged to new 31 year highs, the CME stepped in and did its usual 3-6 half life intervention by hiking initial and maintenance margins on silver futures from $11,138 and $8,250 to $11,745 and $8,700 respectively. This is merely the latest margin hike in what appears to be a neverneding series designed to reduce speculative "fervor" courtesy of endless liquidity. What it will do is merely provide a better entry point for those who by now realize that silver's next stop in the fiat endgame is $40, then $50, and so forth. Naturally, the price drop in silver caused gold to sell off too. And now that the CME accepts gold as collateral, we can't even visualize the reflexive loops that develop once the metal that is also a collateral currency becomes more and less valuable at the same time.

And while they are at it, the CME decided to remove some of the Uranium volatility by hiking maintenance and initial margins in Uranium Futures (UX) by about 50%.

HISTORY OF RECENT CME MARGIN REQUIREMENT INCREASES

11/9/10 - SILVER margin raised from $5000 to $6500

SILVER peaks around $29.30 on 11/9.

11/16/10 - SILVER margin raised from $6500 to $7250

SILVER bottoms around $25 shortly thereafter.

12/17/10 - SILVER margin raised from $7250 to $7750

SILVER climbs to almost $30 and retreats to around $28 a week later.

1/21/11 - SILVER margin raised from $7750 to $8250

SILVER retreats from $29.50, falling to $26.60 a week later.

3/24/11 - SILVER margin raised from $8250 to $8700

After a monster move from around $27, SILVER climbs to $38.20, as the CME raises margin requirements once again.

The “initial” margin for speculators in the 5,000-ounce silver contract will rise to $11,745 from $11,138. The margin for hedge/members and “maintenance” of speculative positions will rise to $8,700 from $8,250.

Conclusion: The effect of raising margin requirements, while initiating minor selloffs in SILVER, have not had any effect.

Country wrote:HISTORY OF RECENT CME MARGIN REQUIREMENT INCREASES
...
The “initial” margin for speculators in the 5,000-ounce silver contract will rise to $11,745 from $11,138. The margin for hedge/members and “maintenance” of speculative positions will rise to $8,700 from $8,250.

Conclusion: The effect of raising margin requirements, while initiating minor selloffs in SILVER, have not had any effect.

- As it shouldn't.
Nice charts and timeline Country- Thanks for that.

Today's margin adjustments were not a focus of silver. It is not silver story. Many instruments had adjustments.
Having said that, with the new requirements, one still only needs less than 5% margin to maintain control of 5,000 ounces of SILVER. If any speculator needs that much (or more) in leverage then their fate is sealed in advance.

DeanStockwell wrote:Short silver at $38.03.

reminds me of the pit, we'd be standing there, couple guys offering "20 at 8" (37.98)

i'd shriek at them, "buy 'em! buy 'eM!!" (i'm long 40 cars now, i'll settle up with them in a second)

but then i scream, "EVEN on a HUNNERD!!!" (38.00)

now either two things would happen, i'd have 10 guys in my face, "SOLD! SOLD! SOLD!!!"...or that would trigger stops, and Dean if you're 03 order was in there, you'd get it back in an hour, endorsed at 38.03, with the market trading at 38.37.

but thems are the old days, days of the pit.

Jonfly, Dean ....you're grown men, i assume astute in the ways of speculation, but there is no way you could EVER get me to short this bull, outside of the run in Crude the last decade, i've never seen a bull like this, wheat being the exception, another market, right now i would never sell short. But best of luck, neil

AGCoinHunter wrote:From zerohedge and reason for resulting plunge...



And while they are at it, the CME decided to remove some of the Uranium volatility by hiking maintenance and initial margins in Uranium Futures (UX) by about 50%.

son of a buck, i was just looking at Uranium last night, seeing the post tsunamai sell off, and thinking to myself, this might be a good market to trade, even though the Vol and OI are low.

the things i could tell you about the CME......i know Comex is worse, been that way for decades...ah, nuff said.

How did you land a job at the CME? How long were you in the pit?

DeanStockwell wrote:How did you land a job at the CME? How long were you in the pit?

Dean, that kind of made me laugh...not AT you, just in general.

How did i land a job at the Merc?....i walked in.

serious, got a job as a runner for a hundred bucks a week, didnt know nothing from nothing, but i kept my eyes open, ears open, listened, watched. To this day, i always like to watch the "boards", just watch a market trade, or when they still had pit trading LISTEN to a market trade.

3 months at Paine, i got hired at a small hedge firm. kind of like upping to Special Forces, and thats where i settled, took over running the desk, then got a seat from a meatpacker to trade for him, i was there all thru the 80's.

i laughed, coz its like that line from Wall Street where Gecko's dressing and talking about "how all these MBA's dont amount to dogshit, give me guys who are smart hungry and have no feelings"...that's true, at least it was then......now it's all electronic, the "edge" to having a seat is gone, ("edge" being a fun way to say 'thieve") and a lot of supposedly good traders go BUST sitting behind a screen these days. Good, serves 'em right for stealing and theivery.

Do you still trade?

DeanStockwell wrote:Do you still trade?

no.i dont trust the exchanges anymore, very nervous about defaults, and the whole financial industry/enviroment. i know where everything trades at, price, but i think futures.options/EFT speculation is the not the way to deploy capital. Insuring your capital, thats important now. Sure you can risk, go for the home run, but too many black swans flying about, know what i mean?

I'm not a very active trader...95% of my days i'm in 75+% crash. I see these black swans as money making opportunities. The USD/JPY rise and Japanese ETF's caused me to gain huge amounts during that week when everyone was scared...
I aim to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful(thanks Warren).
Anyways...the dollar is near highs of the night across forex markets...silver has been bouncing between $37.25 and $37.40.
Off to bed for the night, good night and good luck all!

Silver shouldn't be up today...
The $DXY bounced off support and GDP was in line with estimates. Seems now that the main catalyst behind silver is speculation. Buyers here may not be able to sell to a "greater fool."

DeanStockwell wrote:Silver shouldn't be up today...
........... Seems now that the main catalyst behind silver is speculation. Buyers here may not be able to sell to a "greater fool."

I have known about 2-3 dozen of my peers who all talked like you. All convinced they understood markets. All of them were taught lessons the hard way though. A few still actively trade but their philosophies vastly different. I suspect with this type of reasoning your day is coming I would be careful.

A huge correction for silver certainly may be do if for no other reason then many people expect it. Theres much more globally pushing silver investing at this point then speculation though. Im not going to try to convince you, I never could, just saying be careful.