Realcent.org

Posted: **Sat Dec 03, 2022 7:38 am**

Ag has had a nice move up over the past 7 weeks. However, until it breaks out over $30, it's just in a trading range.

https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=SI&p=w1

Perhaps the crypto HODLers who got obliterated over the past year are finally beginning to see the light.

When the stock market dumps again and Ag continues moving higher, that will be a very positive confirmation.

I started collecting coins in 1975, but did not begin seriously accumulating Ag until 1985. It's been a long time. Extreme patience is required. I'm firmly convinced we will win, eventually.

Posted: **Sat Dec 03, 2022 1:36 pm**

I believe this has been suggested (maybe even by me) but many forum posts are conflating paper silver prices with street physical prices and I think it would be helpful to ensure that readers understand what we mean in any given thread.

True price discovery is what physical metal sells for when it changes ownership. "Spot silver" or futures prices often diverge from "street" price because the system that has developed allows for an infinite amount of paper silver to be represented by a finite amount of physical. Periodically the paper shorts come up "short" and have to pay up - which can boost the price temporarily - but they are generally offered an off road from having to literally supply the silver they have promised by simply paying a penalty. That does not result in correct price discovery, and the entire system has been shown to result in major abuses.

(Other factors like form and seniorage also affect price but only by a buck or two per toz.)

I would estimate that the street price of basic bullion silver is at least $5 over "Spot" - perhaps even $10. That would put the street price of silver at more than $30 already. Despite some flucuation the street price has been largely over $30 for more than two years.

So how do we separate the terms so that posts can be most clear?

Posted: **Sat Dec 03, 2022 4:50 pm**

For some reason when I think of street value, I think of cocaine and heroin more than silver!

Camaro, that is a valid comment you made…

Posted: **Sat Dec 03, 2022 5:50 pm**

68Camaro wrote:I believe this has been suggested (maybe even by me) but many forum posts are conflating paper silver prices with street physical prices and I think it would be helpful to ensure that readers understand what we mean in any given thread.

True price discovery is what physical metal sells for when it changes ownership. "Spot silver" or futures prices often diverge from "street" price because the system that has developed allows for an infinite amount of paper silver to be represented by a finite amount of physical. Periodically the paper shorts come up "short" and have to pay up - which can boost the price temporarily - but they are generally offered an off road from having to literally supply the silver they have promised by simply paying a penalty. That does not result in correct price discovery, and the entire system has been shown to result in major abuses.

(Other factors like form and seniorage also affect price but only by a buck or two per toz.)

I would estimate that the street price of basic bullion silver is at least $5 over "Spot" - perhaps even $10. That would put the street price of silver at more than $30 already. Despite some flucuation the street price has been largely over $30 for more than two years.

So how do we separate the terms so that posts can be most clear?

I'm aware of those things and totally agree... it's worth much more than the "spot" price. I was simply looking at technicals and doing basic analysis on the chart using the spot price.

As the price rises I believe premiums will come down, initially. Then when the spot price really starting rocketing, premiums will soar again based on availability and FOMO.

Many of us here loaded up on Ag many years ago. All we have to do now is sit back and wait.

We could also get phucked back to the stone age after the next crash/collapse. If that does happen water, food and ammo will be worth 1000x more than any PM. I'm hoping that does NOT happen.

Posted: **Sat Dec 03, 2022 6:48 pm**

Yes diversify... In all the possibilities that word means.

Posted: **Sun Dec 04, 2022 2:26 pm**

I think actual is probably at 30 already.* :

(*disclaimer...I don't own any, or at least any significant amount, and likely never will again at my age.)

In other news: I attended our pre-winter Insulator show today and one of the dealers had some non-insulator items. Among them a 100 oz unbranded (I think) silver bar which he was asking $2400 for. Looked like an older bar maybe from the '80s or '90s, had a serial number and an eagle on it. I bought a bunch of nicely dated buffalo nickles from him and moved on to the next table.

My glass doo-hickeys may be as intrinsically valuable as a crypto coin but they look a whole lot cooler in a sunny window than a brick of metal locked in a safe! :lol: