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Imminent Silver Rally is on the way. Now that 38xx has printed, buying on dips is the preferred strategy, replacing selling on rallies.
Cheers

Quick,

Follow Jon into battle. Do what he says.

Thank G I'm a hoarder and not a trader. Thanks Jon. You do add an edge to the physical buyer.

Every little bit helps.

Jon... I hope you're right... but how do you expect a rally to occur in the face of the double slap down newly raised limits that CME just stated will be enforced as of tomorrow and then again on Monday?

Thanks guys. I honestly do not know what will happen in the future. I never do. The only expectation I have is to follow discipline. Plan the trade and trade the plan. Measured losses on any given trade are the insurance premiums paid to protect overall success and big profits. Perhaps I'll be 100% wrong on this theme, but something tells me otherwise. Always DYOD etc etc.

Cheers!

With SILVER touching $38.91 tonight that makes the extent of the decline from $49.75 a 21.8% dropoff from the high. With a few exceptions, this decline fits in well with historical SILVER declines of the past. While the decline has not officially ended, it gives me a warm and fuzzy that JonFly is seeing the end of this decline draw near.

Thanks Country. Just triggered a long at $38.88. Will add more if lower is seen. After the first swing rally we'll see where the structure is. Could be that the structure shifts and holds for buy on dip or time to short again for a deeper run towards the mid to low 30's. Work is pretty busy the next few days so not sure that I'll be able to keep anything position-wise up to date here. Good luck y'all.

beauanderos wrote:Jon... I hope you're right... but how do you expect a rally to occur in the face of the double slap down newly raised limits that CME just stated will be enforced as of tomorrow and then again on Monday?

My question is, why the has the dollar barely moved on the DXY as silver declines 22% and Gold nearly 4%? I realize the DXY shows the dollar against other major currencies (not gold and silver), however past sell offs (2008 for example) strengthened the dollar. My concern is that as silver and gold rebound in the coming months the dollar could get pushed below 70.

beauanderos wrote:Jon... I hope you're right... but how do you expect a rally to occur in the face of the double slap down newly raised limits that CME just stated will be enforced as of tomorrow and then again on Monday?

100% with you on this one Ray.

theo wrote:

beauanderos wrote:Jon... I hope you're right... but how do you expect a rally to occur in the face of the double slap down newly raised limits that CME just stated will be enforced as of tomorrow and then again on Monday?

My question is, why the has the dollar barely moved on the DXY as silver declines 22% and Gold nearly 4%? I realize the DXY shows the dollar against other major currencies (not gold and silver), however past sell offs (2008 for example) strengthened the dollar. My concern is that as silver and gold rebound in the coming months the dollar could get pushed below 70.

Note my dollar thread on the topic, slim though it is. Dollar is weak because it's weak, and it's so weak it not only isn't going up, they are having to prop it up. It wants to go down, but starting a few weeks ago when it got below 73, everytime it tries to go below 72.7 it gets propped back up. Imagine what would happen to it without being propped up, and when the PM rally returns.

Rodebaugh wrote:

beauanderos wrote:Jon... I hope you're right... but how do you expect a rally to occur in the face of the double slap down newly raised limits that CME just stated will be enforced as of tomorrow and then again on Monday?

100% with you on this one Ray.

I'm revising my expectations downward, expecting even lower for a few more days. Will redo my limit positions of today (which weren't triggered) in the morning.

Rich.......Ditto

Predictions are tough to make these days. On one hand a lot of technical (read psychological) damage has been done to silver that may take several months or longer to recover from.

But then with the weakness in the dollar (referenced earlier in the thread) another negative announcement from the Chinese, the IMF, George Soros etc, or any one of a dozen different events could cause a full on currency crisis, making the last few days seem like a distant memory.

Finally, there is the matter of the debt ceiling, which will probably pass without incident, but will (at the very least) call still more attention to our fiscal troubles. I could see that coverage putting in a floor in on silver at $36 to $38.

I feel like we are running on a knives edge these days and we shouldn't lose site of that.

I sure hope Jon is right and the rally starts now. I was about to sell some at $50 to buy land. That is my sell number. IF it drops all the way to $20, I still won't get hurt! My brain is stuck on $30 - 32 for the low of this correction. Time will tell.

As a physical buyer, I don't care what Crimex does. You can't get delivery from them now anyway.

How many people do you know willing to sell below $30? I guarantee no coin shop in my area will.

Second larger allocation @ $37.89

And third allocation @ $37.60. That should do it for now. Let's see...

Fourth allocation long @ $37.40. Will hold off on a fifth and final for a bit.

Cheers!

Feels like the market is finding a swing floor here.

Jonflyfish wrote:Feels like the market is finding a swing floor here.

bounce could take us $1 below daily b... approx $43.50ish

Good to see the volatility is making specs some money... that's a sign of a great market (direction doesn't matter, but amplitude does)

edit: I'm surprised to see that under $38 is actually tradeable... my target was $38.50

Has the silver supply increased significantly? Do coin dealers have a lot of silver for sale at $35-$37? Will mining production increase or decrease at these price levels? Has the dollar increased in value?

The free market took a major hit with these rule changes that benefit the big boy network, however it will rule in the long term.

Expect prices to go back up to balance the demand-supply of silver, which is and will be very short of supply at these prices.

I dont expect to see 45 for a while. 30 is possible.

This run was way to good to be true.

I am still reloading after buying the 2 2011 ATB's at top dollar. If it continues to go lower I will DEFINITELY be stocking up!!! The fundamentals have not changed.

Position size doubled on final allocation @ $36.67
Will hold this as a core position.
Cheers

i don't think it goes up until very late afternoon or tonight. margin calls galore today.

but nothing has changed except to get worse so yeah i think it goes right back up.

its hard to see silver going up before early next week at the earliest

Lemon Thrower wrote:i don't think it goes up until very late afternoon or tonight. margin calls galore today.

but nothing has changed except to get worse so yeah i think it goes right back up.

Looks to be the case. Hence, positioning before the turn. In these volatile opportunities, waiting too long will freeze a trader. Perfect example would be the first $5-8 move down. It happened before most people even knew about it.

Cheers!