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Curious to see what everyone is thinking. With the rise on Friday, do you think the bleeding has stopped, or do you expect silver to go down more?

I think most of the damage was done on Thursday, but we might still have a flat to slightly downward bias on Monday. Would be surprised (pleasantly so) if we had a strong up day.

Lacking the Comex changes, I would expect an uptick at start, and close over $36. But I understand the 5th recent comex margin increase is supposed to take effect Monday, so I won't be surprised at yet another small drop.

However, I would tend to think that is largely already priced in by now. There was an uptick at close on Friday, with afterhours trading continuing to move up nicely for a couple of hours. That signals bargin hunting.

It seems like the weak hands have sold out by now, so there is a good chance we've put in a bottom. However, if there are further restrictions placed on margin trading there could be more selling. The next major support is at $28, which is the 200 day moving average.

I don't expect a huge upside move next week either (perhaps 5%). I suspect a lot of margin traders were mauled badly last week and it will take a little while to recover pyschologically.

Here is an interesting article on what happened next week.

http://news.coinupdate.com/by-using-fal ... lver-0814/

I think we go backwards again. i expect to give back all that was made on Friday and end somewhere in the 34's to high 33's.

Based on my analysis, we will either rise sharply beyond $50 on Monday, or decline downwards to $10. A third possibility I see is that it will be somewhere in between.

brian0918 wrote:Based on my analysis, we will either rise sharply beyond $50 on Monday, or decline downwards to $10. A third possibility I see is that it will be somewhere in between.

Are you a weather man?

The trend is your friend until the bend at the end.

Nobody really knows for sure but in the short term I think the dollar is going to continue its little rally to maybe 76-77 and silver will re-test $30 in the next week(s). The cartel has effectively executed a strong downward move in silver. Long term the trend in the dollar is down but occasionally we will get these kinds of counter trend rallies to confuse people.

NDFarmer wrote:

brian0918 wrote:Based on my analysis, we will either rise sharply beyond $50 on Monday, or decline downwards to $10. A third possibility I see is that it will be somewhere in between.

Are you a weather man?

Economist.

Actually I kind of like Brian0918's analysis. Surely somewhere in the range he suggested ought to be a comfort level for about everyone.

On a more serious note, I still think 'holding physical' be it every so small a stack, is perferable in times like these.

Just my .5 cent worth

sheba

Nobody knows, and anyone who says they do is a dirty fibber!

Going to take some time to repair the damage even though silver still has many fans throughout the world. Physical silver wasn;t the problem, though, it was the paper silver in the ETFs and that sold through the COMEX. I've heard 1001 reasons for the crash dive, but there's some behind-the-scenes forces pulling the strings for their own benefit.

Regardless, my thought is that we'll continue to drift lower during May and may even bounce against the $30/oz support level. That's where we take a stand and begin to rebuild as most everyone who has even a modicum of sense will realize this is a buying opportunity extraordinaire. From there, we begin to climb the wall again. Should be able to retrace our recent flight to the stratosphere before the end of 2011.

Just my luck that silver will double in price on December 20, 2012. That'd be the day before the world ceases to exist if you subscribe to the Mayan calendar theory.

With my free advice and speculation (as well as all others), you get what you pay for. I don't think we're any worse, though, than the Goobers and Gomers who write the PM newsletters. Probably better, now that I think of it................

Can paper "spot" disconnect from physical metals?

Temporarily, it can. It will always come back together. But, people make money (and others lose money) on these disconnects...

the real question is , where will YOU be May 22

I think the primary price driver on Monday will be the news about Greece's problems.

I hate ETF's and think they are suppressing the price of physical. Next time we get near $50 I’m sure they will just smack it down again. As long as SLV is running do we really think we could get back to a GSR of 1:16? Probably not unless gold spot goes down to $800. I think that’s what makes physical such a long term hold. We have to be willing to wait and wait until all this corruption is brought to light and that could be years and years away. In the meantime if you have the knowledge and tools you can probably make a ton of money shorting SLV when it reaches the $50 mark. And I bet next time we near the $50 mark it will be much tougher to find a buyer of our physical. I know a couple coin shops in my area own lots of physical around $50 and they are taking a beating right now and probably will be a little weary next time around. With physical trading between 35 and 50 there isn’t enough room to really make any significant gains flipping physical because of the markups. I'm jealous of you guys who can trade SLV but I guess I'm also happy I’m not a part of it at the same time. Conflicted

timmus0382 wrote:. I know a couple coin shops in my area own lots of physical around $50 and they are taking a beating right now and probably will be a little weary next time around. With physical trading between 35 and 50 there isn’t enough room to really make any significant gains flipping physical because of the markups.

This is a situation I've really been wondering about. I bet a lot of dealers were clamoring to buy during the run-up because of the demand. But the inventory they bought at around $50 is now going to sell for 25% less. Are they putting it in the safe and waiting or like timmus said just taking a beating.?

Back on topic, I have no idea what's in store Monday - I would love to see oil drop a couple dollars a day all week though..

I try not to talk conspiracy theory here, but a particular theory has it that the Euro will crash then the Dollar nearly on it's heals. The action in Greece has me concerned. I don't care what they sell silver for in the short term, I'm a buyer as long as it is on sale.

tn-dave wrote:

timmus0382 wrote:. I know a couple coin shops in my area own lots of physical around $50 and they are taking a beating right now and probably will be a little weary next time around. With physical trading between 35 and 50 there isn’t enough room to really make any significant gains flipping physical because of the markups.

This is a situation I've really been wondering about. I bet a lot of dealers were clamoring to buy during the run-up because of the demand. But the inventory they bought at around $50 is now going to sell for 25% less. Are they putting it in the safe and waiting or like timmus said just taking a beating.?

I have been a good customer of my main dealer. I buy two to three times a week no mater his price so I think he feels like he has to sell to me to keep me coming in. I went in on Friday and he had a small box of rounds and bars that he pulled out for me. He said he owns a lot of silver around the $50 dollar mark but was willing to sell to me for $38. I bought 7 ounces so I'm guessing he lost $50 to $70 on that purchase. I know he keeps the majority in the back room and will wait to bring that out when the price comes back up, so it’s going to be thin pickings for his best customers and no silver or high priced silver to some guy off the street. I guess what I'm saying is, he is managing his beating the best he can while still holding his position as the place to go to acquire physical. It's a balancing act for him through this large dip. If we come out Monday in the hole again when he opens on Tuesday I wouldn’t be surprised if he only has a couple rounds and one ounce bars for sale. If we see prices continually dipping next week I think you will start to see the price of physical detach from the price of spot at the local dealer level. These guys aren’t going to lose their businesses over this and I can guarantee you they are buying like crazy right now to make up for some of their losses. This mini crash is a buying opportunity for the public and the corrupt custodians keep digging the hole deeper and deeper and deeper to the point where the sides are going to collapse in around and be buried alive. I say let them continue to mess with margins ect., I think the word is out enough now to the point where the small % of physical buyers have the power to seal their fate. I don’t know the numbers but worldwide there has to be millions and millions of ounces a week going into the hands of hoarders.

Well, apart from some people being able to be lucky enough to find a few overextended desperate sellers, I'm not seeing much physical for sale at any bargins. We should expect it to lag the market because of belief it will go back up, but - for example - in quick review of ebay for franklin halves I just now did, the cheapest roll of junk franklin halves I found (by the time you include shipping) was 28.5x. Not bad compared to last week, but this was just the one seller - most were far higher, and that cheapest one is still 3x over spot. If anyone finds any source selling at spot or below, and large enough to split up, please let us know.

68Camaro wrote:Well, apart from some people being able to be lucky enough to find a few overextended desperate sellers, I'm not seeing much physical for sale at any bargins. We should expect it to lag the market because of belief it will go back up, but - for example - in quick review of ebay for franklin halves I just now did, the cheapest roll of junk franklin halves I found (by the time you include shipping) was 28.5x. Not bad compared to last week, but this was just the one seller - most were far higher, and that cheapest one is still 3x over spot. If anyone finds any source selling at spot or below, and large enough to split up, please let us know.

And they aren't there anymore, because I just bought that roll and the next one up that was $5 higher...

(There are BIN prices, may be some better sniping bargins...)

So cheapest is now 29.2x as of now, and only 2 rolls of that...

pickins are few and far between on ebay right now. That $10 roll is about the largest lot you'll find. Went thru 12 pages of buy it now and didn't find a single thing worth buying.

Bullion Direct Nucleo has all the 90% you want around 26X face.

http://www.bulliondirect.com/nucleo/showProducts.do?cat=Silver_Bullion&category=1

Country wrote:Bullion Direct Nucleo has all the 90% you want around 26X face.

http://www.bulliondirect.com/nucleo/showProducts.do?cat=Silver_Bullion&category=1

Haven't actually used their process - anyone familiar with it? What are pros/cons?