Realcent.org

We might trade a dollar lower, into the 32 USD range, but i have a very strong feeling, this quiet, this calm, as we melted lower, will be the last chance to get onboard at a relatively decent level in silver. There are personal indicators too numerous and boring to waste your time with, but we are going higher... now two things can happen, we drift lower, i'm a dunceski, wouldnt be the first time, we trade higher, i'm a genius, and i know the lie of that assessement.....its just i feel it CLEAR, we trade higher in the silver in the months ahead, 2 Aug 2011's silver price will be higher than 2 July 2011's price.

neil

Hope you are right. I am banking on it, too.

Just a matter of when the move higher begins. IMHO, the last couple week's of July will be the best time to make the "Big Buy". This should occur when the fear of the Federal budget deadlock should be the greatest. Of course, we all know that Washington politicians are addicts to the money, and will not go "cold turkey" to spending other peoples money.

You could be right... I hope you are. But last time I based a buying decision on "inner feelings" I got a gut check instead

beauanderos wrote:You could be right... I hope you are. But last time I based a buying decision on "inner feelings" I got a gut check instead

i hear ya Ray...y'know, some guys get to 'talking' their position..or they get to 'hoping', or they so emotionally attached to their position, if you nay say them, you'd think you were banging their sister, they way they react.

no, none of that, which actually ther liberating them about holding a physical commodity, especially hard money like silver, you can get very dispassionate about it, especially if you stack and forget.

i'll tell you what tripped my trigger.....Ebay. Ebay is a kind of nice indicator. i'm still learning to clock it, what it means, etc. But i noticed this, when we started into the 40's on the way up, (and i'm just talking about "rolls") you began to see more offerings, good stuff...then as we neared 50, and reversed that way, offerings got larger, some really good stuff coming on, intense bidding, and this continued all the way down until about 3 weeks ago, right about the time we started banding up 37 to 33....then offerings began to get lower, quality lower....oh sure on sertain rolls, there'd be intense bidding, but its like watching the tide.

right now, just a few good rolls, a LOT of 'im sniffing glue" BIN offers, and a lot of bottom feeders offering their "poss silver, unsearched rolls" , and i've seen this before, and so far, it seems to presage a bottom.

neilgin1 wrote:

beauanderos wrote:You could be right... I hope you are. But last time I based a buying decision on "inner feelings" I got a gut check instead

i hear ya Ray...y'know, some guys get to 'talking' their position..or they get to 'hoping', or they so emotionally attached to their position, if you nay say them, you'd think you were banging their sister, they way they react.

no, none of that, which actually ther liberating them about holding a physical commodity, especially hard money like silver, you can get very dispassionate about it, especially if you stack and forget.

i'll tell you what tripped my trigger.....Ebay. Ebay is a kind of nice indicator. i'm still learning to clock it, what it means, etc. But i noticed this, when we started into the 40's on the way up, (and i'm just talking about "rolls") you began to see more offerings, good stuff...then as we neared 50, and reversed that way, offerings got larger, some really good stuff coming on, intense bidding, and this continued all the way down until about 3 weeks ago, right about the time we started banding up 37 to 33....then offerings began to get lower, quality lower....oh sure on sertain rolls, there'd be intense bidding, but its like watching the tide.

right now, just a few good rolls, a LOT of 'im sniffing glue" BIN offers, and a lot of bottom feeders offering their "poss silver, unsearched rolls" , and i've seen this before, and so far, it seems to presage a bottom.

Those "indicators" could be no more than a reflection of sentiment among ebay retailers that they are getting discouraged awaiting an eventual price rise... while having little to do with macroeconomic factors which have more of an effect on prices than do the influence of the feelings of a few hundred ebay sellers. I think you may be trying to identify the elephant by describing the tip of its trunk. I'm waiting right now, not buying, not selling.

I'm selling a little here and there. Despite the recent spike and pullback 30+ per OZ is still hard to digest. Seems like a really high price.

A wise RC member once told me "Don't be afraid to take some profit"

I'm taking nice big margins now on small lots, mostly Foreign stuff.

It's still easy to sell US .90, especially if you offer a discount to spot.

Are y'all looking at it from the physical metal POV or from the futures POV?

I think you'd be right if physical determined spot, but futures?

"It's a M-y-y-y-y-stery-y-y-y-y."

this kinda feels like last june-aug when silver was trading between 16 and 19, seems like were stuck somewhere between 32 and 36

Back in the 90's, I thought talk about gold and silver going up was just a bunch of foolish talk. "Gold over $500? Silver over $10? What you smoken?" Not even 9-11 persuaded me that either was going to reach even half of what we see now.

i'm just saying....Tuesday...true, its just one day, which aint over, its just a buck forty higher, and the day aint over, but one thing i have learned, NEVER FADE YOUR GUT. Your "gut" (instinct) is that well pool of knowldege you might have spent 10, 20, 30 years to attain, thru all sorts of painful days.

two points to Mr Neil.

To reach higher it would require ebay sellers to hold more than sell. You mention this as price goes downquality goes down, but at what point do ebay sellers start seeing the future(as you see it) over a quick buck? That is the problem right there.

No supply problems either, never was never will.

I'm not seeing the need to own silver around me, only the people selling it say anything like that.
Mr sprott is not done taking profits either nor any other guru.

@"whatsnext"....you wrote: "I'm not seeing the need to own silver around me, only the people selling it say anything like that.
Mr sprott is not done taking profits either nor any other guru."

if you dont see the need to insure currency...then i cant skool you, and brother i sell NO silver, only buying ii hand over fist,time is running short friend.......far as "gurus"...[shucks], i only seek my own counsel, and i never care what anybody else thinks.....or is doing, in fact i feel more comfortable when EVERYBODY disgrees with me.....

btw, check the last three up seesions since this orginal post, the volume keeps getting higher each day.

whatsnext wrote:No supply problems either, never was never will.

We have freedom of speech in this country, so you can state whatever you want. But it's obvious to me that you haven't done your homework on this issue.

beauanderos wrote:

whatsnext wrote:No supply problems either, never was never will.

We have freedom of speech in this country, so you can state whatever you want. But it's obvious to me that you haven't done your homework on this issue.

I'm never looking through the numbers on this one. I dont believe they are correct to begin with. If I owned a mine I would never tell how much I would be dumping into the market long term.

In fact I would be like "OMG the stuff just doesnt come out like it use to." As for david morgan I dont think he knows quite as much as he thinks he does. He only has information that people want to give him, there is alot not reported on.

Dumping the market lower is the last thing miners want to do "Thats money money money boy !" is what mr crab would say. These sweet spot times for mines are the stuff of their dreams.

The internet makes things sound better or worse than they actually will be the majority of the time.

I aswell am not trying to school anyone but this is a place to write my dribble opinion so why not.
Peace

whatsnext wrote:

beauanderos wrote:

whatsnext wrote:No supply problems either, never was never will.

We have freedom of speech in this country, so you can state whatever you want. But it's obvious to me that you haven't done your homework on this issue.

I'm never looking through the numbers on this one. I dont believe they are correct to begin with. If I owned a mine I would never tell how much I would be dumping into the market long term.

In fact I would be like "OMG the stuff just doesnt come out like it use to." As for david morgan I dont think he knows quite as much as he thinks he does. He only has information that people want to give him, there is alot not reported on.

Dumping the market lower is the last thing miners want to do "Thats money money money boy !" is what mr crab would say. These sweet spot times for mines are the stuff of their dreams.

The internet makes things sound better or worse than they actually will be the majority of the time.

I aswell am not trying to school anyone but this is a place to write my dribble opinion so why not.
Peace

Although I don't agree with you, I'm glad that you are willing to argue counter to the prevailing opinion. Holding back information to keep the price level high is always possible, but its important to remember that it violates several Federal and state laws; especially for publicly traded companies. The penulty would likely include jail time for the corporate officers. This would also have to involve a massive conspiracy among several dozen mining companies; again highly unlikely. Given all that the exchanges have done to restrict silver futures trading, and the huge short position JPM holds, I'd have to say that a shortage is far more plausible.