Realcent.org

Posted: **Sun Aug 21, 2011 3:01 am**

Should've known better than to have coffee after dinner.. and it's got me to thinking. Grandpa always told me never to eat to the seeds for next spring. Didn't have any idea what he was talking about back then, but it's starting to make sense.

The wife and I have been ardently buy-and-hold types since we were unplugged back in '08. But on a soldier's salary, and a new baby boy, I haven't got much cash to go hunting with. So I've been considering the pros and cons of selling a percentage of our holdings in order to free up some to capital to search more.

To make the math easy, we've got 218 Toz. at last count, or $9352 as of friday. I'd like to sell all of it and order 18 boxes of halves a week, but the risk seems too great that we'd miss a jump in prices or the balloon goes up and we're left holding the bag, sans silver. Then again, only 1 or 2k seems weak considering how many skunk boxes have been turning up, but that could be isolated to my experience. Guess it all boils down to: a) Where is the balance b/w risk and reward? and b) At what amount of cash will the volume of silver found v. time spent looking graph start to look like an exponential function going vertical?

I appreciate yalls thoughts and suggestions.

Posted: **Sun Aug 21, 2011 3:33 am**

I wouldnt dream of that myself. but then I dont even have the ability to sort myself. there have been several times silver rose fast enough in a short period that you wouldnt be able to readily re invest and be at the same number of ounces.

How easy is it for you to get 18 boxes anyway weekly? How long will it stay that way? how long will your banks put up with it at those levels? to many variables for my tastes.... Ultimately do what you think is best of course but I wouldnt play around with more then 10-20 percent myself.

Could you set up 2-4 boxes a week from 5-6 different banks instead? simply sort them ASAP and flip it faster.

Posted: **Sun Aug 21, 2011 3:46 am**

That's about what I've been managing when I'm not in the field (a few boxes a week). My percentages have been much higher with CWR but it gets the wife upset when I'm gone driving cross town til the last bank closes.

A thought.. say I sell 3k tomorrow. Even if silver hit $100 ounce on monday, I could still plug along paying $1.40 per ounce from the banks. Sure it'd be a bummer, but I'd only take a hit if I pushed the cash back into silver at spot.

Posted: **Sun Aug 21, 2011 3:50 am**

Well 40% would be more then a 1.40 an ounce but...
If thats an acceptable risk for you then go for it. but then youd be doing tons of work replacing those ounces covering lost ground. Just my take, its your stack.

Posted: **Sun Aug 21, 2011 3:57 am**

Hell, I guess I'll take 3.50 an ounce...

Tons of work is right. I've got 12 months 'til I'm out of the service, and as an infantryman with little to offer professionally, I'm gonna be attempting to amp up my volume by one or two orders of magnitude (100 boxes weekly.. I'm out of my mind). But that leads into another thread on volume I've been meaning to start.

Posted: **Sun Aug 21, 2011 4:00 am**

sounds like you should get into pennies as well to me, where you have a more guaranteed rate of return, presuming you have buyers. Logistically 100 boxes a week I guess your in a large city?

Posted: **Sun Aug 21, 2011 4:10 am**

I'm stationed at an unnamed active army station in the pacific northwest next to an unnamed metropolitan area full of interestingly shaped people that call each other satellites or some such nonsense. Lots of banks in my neck of the woods. Same troubles dumping as everyone else though. Guys with the machines are sick of my dimes and it's getting harder to receive instant credit when I turn in the sealed bags to the rest of them. Don't have the cushion to wait for the vaults to count them. But we're managing.

First time I heard about a ryedale I stayed up half the night running numbers with dreams of copper by the bucket. Then I saw how thin the market was and guys sitting on tons of the stuff and got pretty discouraged. Hand sorted a box and had a pretty high percentage of coppers, then looked at my watch and couldn't believe how long it took me. Wife is reluctant to get a ryedale with the market as thin as it seems.

Posted: **Sun Aug 21, 2011 5:14 am**

mortarman wrote:

To make the math easy, we've got 218 Toz. at last count, or $9352 as of friday. I'd like to sell all of it and order 18 boxes of halves a week, but the risk seems too great that we'd miss a jump in prices or the balloon goes up and we're left holding the bag, sans silver. Then again, only 1 or 2k seems weak considering how many skunk boxes have been turning up, but that could be isolated to my experience. Guess it all boils down to: a) Where is the balance b/w risk and reward? and b) At what amount of cash will the volume of silver found v. time spent looking graph start to look like an exponential function going vertical?

I appreciate yalls thoughts and suggestions.

I would not sell your entire hoard. Too much speculation with no cushion. Beauanderos was averaging 1 silver coin per box, when the bank started charging him a fee for their service. That wiped out his profit. PM him for the full story.

Do you really have time to sort 18 boxes per week?

If you want to play around with a percentage of your hoard, okay, I can see that. But, to sell off the whole thing is unwise IMHO.

Posted: **Sun Aug 21, 2011 6:21 am**

mortarman wrote:Should've known better than to have coffee after dinner.. and it's got me to thinking. Grandpa always told me never to eat to the seeds for next spring. Didn't have any idea what he was talking about back then, but it's starting to make sense.

The wife and I have been ardently buy-and-hold types since we were unplugged back in '08. But on a soldier's salary, and a new baby boy, I haven't got much cash to go hunting with. So I've been considering the pros and cons of selling a percentage of our holdings in order to free up some to capital to search more.

To make the math easy, we've got 218 Toz. at last count, or $9352 as of friday. I'd like to sell all of it and order 18 boxes of halves a week, but the risk seems too great that we'd miss a jump in prices or the balloon goes up and we're left holding the bag, sans silver. Then again, only 1 or 2k seems weak considering how many skunk boxes have been turning up, but that could be isolated to my experience. Guess it all boils down to: a) Where is the balance b/w risk and reward? and b) At what amount of cash will the volume of silver found v. time spent looking graph start to look like an exponential function going vertical?

I appreciate yalls thoughts and suggestions.

Your 10 grand stash is a good work. Don't lose it. Keep in mind it's a 20 grand stash when silver is at $80, and a 30 grand stash when silver is at $120. And there may come a point in time when physical silver is literally hard to come by, no matter the comex price.

You'll have to work out the math of your situation; yield vs effort/gas/time spent. But - AT MOST - I wouldn't sell more than 25% of it to raise capital, and that only if your yield indicates you can replace that capital within a month or two. I believe your timing is a bit off on this so you need to be cautious. At most, I would take a small portion, call that your working silver, sell it to buy more boxes, and keep that stash separate from the hoard. Build that capital over time, sell it off as you go and buy more boxes, yielding more silver, etc. Until you get your capital up to where you need it. Then start keeping ALL the culls in your hoard and start re-growing your hoard.

Posted: **Sun Aug 21, 2011 8:37 am**

I agree on only a small portion sold an would sell only 40% not any 90% as the value of 40 will always be less than the 90 or .999

Try to find a part time gig an buy .999 with the income JMTC

Posted: **Sun Aug 21, 2011 9:12 am**

mortarman wrote:Should've known better than to have coffee after dinner.. and it's got me to thinking. Grandpa always told me never to eat to the seeds for next spring. Didn't have any idea what he was talking about back then, but it's starting to make sense.

The wife and I have been ardently buy-and-hold types since we were unplugged back in '08. But on a soldier's salary, and a new baby boy, I haven't got much cash to go hunting with. So I've been considering the pros and cons of selling a percentage of our holdings in order to free up some to capital to search more.

To make the math easy, we've got 218 Toz. at last count, or $9352 as of friday. I'd like to sell all of it and order 18 boxes of halves a week, but the risk seems too great that we'd miss a jump in prices or the balloon goes up and we're left holding the bag, sans silver. Then again, only 1 or 2k seems weak considering how many skunk boxes have been turning up, but that could be isolated to my experience. Guess it all boils down to: a) Where is the balance b/w risk and reward? and b) At what amount of cash will the volume of silver found v. time spent looking graph start to look like an exponential function going vertical?

I appreciate yalls thoughts and suggestions.

Are you trying to give me a HEART ATTACK!!??? This is a TERRIBLE idea. First, you've been running across lots of skunk boxes? Well, just multiply that by the number you would be increasing. Second... You would be converting REAL money into FIAT... only in the form of litle clad rounds. I would never in a million years do what you are considering. You will do nothing but cause yourself a great deal of stress, shattered expectations, disillusionment, and remorse. Am I being clear enough???

Posted: **Sun Aug 21, 2011 9:26 am**

Well, Ray, the original complete thought is BAD - selling all. But the concept may have merit, *IF* he is getting more silver up there than you are. Depends on his yield. If he's getting a couple ounces of new silver a week, and could triple that by selling off 48 oz now, then he'll be moving from 8 oz/month to 24 ounces of silver a month. So he could afford to sell off 48 oz now if he recoups that in two months, and then continue to bring in 24 oz every month after. So don't be so quick to kill the whole thing off. He needs to let this play out in his head.

Posted: **Sun Aug 21, 2011 9:43 am**

68Camaro wrote:Well, Ray, the original complete thought is BAD - selling all. But the concept may have merit, *IF* he is getting more silver up there than you are. Depends on his yield. If he's getting a couple ounces of new silver a week, and could triple that by selling off 48 oz now, then he'll be moving from 8 oz/month to 24 ounces of silver a month. So he could afford to sell off 48 oz now if he recoups that in two months, and then continue to bring in 24 oz every month after. So don't be so quick to kill the whole thing off. He needs to let this play out in his head.

You're whole premise is based on IF. Those of us who had been sorting for awhile know how poor the returns are (it's a hobby). Price appreciation on his silver stack is a surety, finding circulating silver is a low-percentage bet. As silver prices rise, even MORE people are getting into searching. Why do you think I've abandoned it? Not worth the time, effort, or stress involved. The best idea I've seen in this thread is a variant on an idea, and one my own bank was willing to implement. If he has only $500 to invest in rolling searches, then order $2500 a week, and pick up one box a day from the bank as he searches and returns $500 daily to different locations. More work, no capital increase. There is no guarantee to silver roll hunting, despite the sometimes spectacular (but RARE) instances in which one person strikes a mother lode. The only guarantee is that you will be parked in fiat... which carries OPPORTUNITY COST, the price increase you will LOSE by not maintaining the existing stash... and this during a phase of rapidly increasing price acceleration. He can make up his own mind, but the idea makes me cringe. Backtest the idea over the last year and calculate where it would have got him. Sorry if my views run contrary to the majority here... but I'm adamant on what I've expressed here. Also... does he plan on paying taxes on the sale? Another wrench in the monkey works.

Posted: **Sun Aug 21, 2011 11:00 am**

Our best week was 65 Toz in 40/90 halves, but was a mother lode fluke. Best week in CWR dimes recently was $5.00 face. I wouldn't be considering it if my past experience didn't merit pursuing it. My average is about 1/2500 or 1 per box on the dimes, same as you beau. CWR has always been way higher. Found five the other day in about $820. Boxes of halves have been ordered intermittently (?) with 0-3% yields.

And Ceaser is getting his pound of flesh via inflation...

Posted: **Sun Aug 21, 2011 11:11 am**

beauanderos wrote:
68Camaro wrote:Well, Ray, the original complete thought is BAD - selling all. But the concept may have merit, *IF* he is getting more silver up there than you are. Depends on his yield. If he's getting a couple ounces of new silver a week, and could triple that by selling off 48 oz now, then he'll be moving from 8 oz/month to 24 ounces of silver a month. So he could afford to sell off 48 oz now if he recoups that in two months, and then continue to bring in 24 oz every month after. So don't be so quick to kill the whole thing off. He needs to let this play out in his head.

You're whole premise is based on IF. Those of us who had been sorting for awhile know how poor the returns are (it's a hobby). Price appreciation on his silver stack is a surety, finding circulating silver is a low-percentage bet. As silver prices rise, even MORE people are getting into searching. Why do you think I've abandoned it? Not worth the time, effort, or stress involved. The best idea I've seen in this thread is a variant on an idea, and one my own bank was willing to implement. If he has only $500 to invest in rolling searches, then order $2500 a week, and pick up one box a day from the bank as he searches and returns $500 daily to different locations. More work, no capital increase. There is no guarantee to silver roll hunting, despite the sometimes spectacular (but RARE) instances in which one person strikes a mother lode. The only guarantee is that you will be parked in fiat... which carries OPPORTUNITY COST, the price increase you will LOSE by not maintaining the existing stash... and this during a phase of rapidly increasing price acceleration. He can make up his own mind, but the idea makes me cringe. Backtest the idea over the last year and calculate where it would have got him. Sorry if my views run contrary to the majority here... but I'm adamant on what I've expressed here. Also... does he plan on paying taxes on the sale? Another wrench in the monkey works.

That's fine - not disagreeing. Just noting that the calculation depends on what HE finds in HIS yields, and his specific situation. He needs to run the numbers.

Posted: **Sun Aug 21, 2011 11:28 am**

That's the problem with running the percentages. It's easy to find X% and think if only I could net the same percentage at a volume that is orders of magnitude above my present one, I'd be doing alright. CardsNCoins made a good point one time when he said:

"I bought 90% silver coinage from 11/2009 to 11/2010 acquiring 129.75 ounces which cost me $2,901.32 or $22.36 per ounce.

From 11/2010 to now I have not "bought" any 90% silver coinage (only adding through searching), and I have a acquired and additional 407.29 ounces which cost me $805.40 or $1.98 per ounce.

It is because of the 2nd scenario that I will never "buy" silver again, even if the searching dried up completely for me."

Pretty sure he's on the other coast, but my experience has led me to feel similarly irked every time I pay spot for AG anymore, which is rarely as a result. The good stuff is still, we just have to have the wherewithal to snag it up. One other point is this: the higher silver goes, the more coins we can search by selling some. Dimes still only cost .10 at the bank.

Posted: **Sun Aug 21, 2011 11:32 am**

If you're FRN constrained, but not time constrained, that's all absolutely true.

But I have no more time in my day. If you're time constrained, but not FRN constrained, it's best to buy from the searchers like you.

Posted: **Sun Aug 21, 2011 11:43 am**

geez I wish I could get coins readily....

Posted: **Sun Aug 21, 2011 12:23 pm**

Treetop wrote:geez I wish I could get coins readily....

Posted: **Sun Aug 21, 2011 12:33 pm**

I actually seriously thought of doing that over this last summer but it never happened....

Posted: **Sun Aug 21, 2011 1:43 pm**

Yikes! While I'm no financial expert, selling your entire hoard doesn't seem like a great idea, IMO. Maybe up to 25%?

Posted: **Sun Aug 21, 2011 2:07 pm**

The market for physical is real strong right now. Everything is selling at or above melt. Nothing wrong with taking a profit. I sold some gold yesterday. Sold it for 5% over melt. You don't have to be an all or none investor. If you only paid face, sell a little now, wait and see, maybe sell a little later. But be sure to keep a core position to provide diversification to your portfolio.

Posted: **Sun Aug 21, 2011 2:13 pm**

RR GUY wrote:The market for physical is real strong right now. Everything is selling at or above melt. Nothing wrong with taking a profit. I sold some gold yesterday. Sold it for 5% over melt. You don't have to be an all or none investor. If you only paid face, sell a little now, wait and see, maybe sell a little later. But be sure to keep a core position to provide diversification to your portfolio.

I once heard/read "don't be afraid to take a profit". Very wise words, IMO.

Posted: **Sun Aug 21, 2011 8:35 pm**

FWIW I sell for capitol but more controlled I guess

I wouldnt risk my whole egg basket that way. I've been working Silver since 1985 started out with a few ounces every pay check. Anyway what I have done for the past couple of years is work 100 troy ounces at a time. My last sale I got just over 39.80 an ounce after premiums.I am now waiting for a drop to 34/36 with premiums then re-buy 100 ounces plus whatever my profits from the sale got me. It''s not 100% super efficent requires some patience but it does provide extra silver on "their" dime so to speak.

If any

Posted: **Sun Aug 21, 2011 10:14 pm**

I would just sell a couple of thousand and plan on turning your halves in very quickly so you have the money to buy more halves. Search and flip so you can search more.

As you find 40%, you could liquidate it so you have more $$ to search.

That way you are not liquidating all of your silver holdings.

If you are consistent with searching and finding 40%, you should be able to have more and more purchasing power.

There are too many variables --- what happens if a nice merchant teller or manager leaves and you have to start from scratch with a new merchant teller or manager and have to try to get them to order you coin or your bank starts charging fees.

I wouldnt jump in with both feet and sell all or most of your silver holding; I would just start slow and build yourself up.

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