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I am wondering if any of you caught the recent article from numismatic news (link below) where the president of NWT Mint expects a 14,000 ton surplus of silver this year. This flies in the face of everything I have read this year. I am wondering what y'all make of this article, specifically the 14,000 ton surplus.

http://www.numismaster.com/ta/numis/Art ... id=2173371

Well, how did the President of the NWT Mint find out I was hoarding 13,999 tons of that amount. I thought he was sworn to secrecy.

Seriously, though, from everything I've read, there's a net deficit of above ground silver available. I believe this includes coin silver, industrial reclamation, sterling jewelry scrap and other sources. If this was the case, why is there an extensive campaign in progress to re-process siulver tailings from long-abandoned mines? Just don;t see how that's possible, ADA.

I agree with you. I found the article to be surprising (14,000 ton surplus) frankly, and a bit strange (silver dealer not trying to pump up sales volume even more than what they have experienced). I read a lot of the top guys in the field, and of course I get my metal breaking news from RC, and I have only read and heard about shortages and how JP Morgan and gang are shorting silver futures, etc. I'm in for the long haul so this article doesn't impact my future purchases. I had to put this on RC for feedback because that part of the article is contrary to everything I've read, seen and heard of the past few years. Things that make you say hmmmm. Thanks for the feedback!

If you look on Kitco, their supply / demand charts clearly show a surplus for 2006-2009. With the price going up so high, demand probably fell and production rose. So it's not unreasonable.

That's 450 million ounces. Don't know if it's really surplus, but that doesn't go far in the world. I expect the recent drop in prices has sucked up at least tens of millions in just a few weeks just into one ounce bullion coins. So the world mints are, in turn, having to buy more stock in order to resupply for all the coins recently produced and consumed. Is industrial use down, or production up? Relative to historical numbers, I believe stockpiles are at recent lows, but I would have to go dig up the data to prove that. Maybe someone else wants to do that.

68Camaro wrote:That's 450 million ounces. Don't know if it's really surplus, but that doesn't go far in the world. I expect the recent drop in prices has sucked up at least tens of millions in just a few weeks just into one ounce bullion coins. So the world mints are, in turn, having to buy more stock in order to resupply for all the coins recently produced and consumed. Is industrial use down, or production up? Relative to historical numbers, I believe stockpiles are at recent lows, but I would have to go dig up the data to prove that. Maybe someone else wants to do that.

No one... and I do mean no one, has reliable comprehensive information regarding the drawdown of existing silver "stockpiles" over the years. All evidence is anecdotal, and parties that favor the concealment of such information outnumber those who would prefer precise numbers. It is presumed that we are running out of above-ground silver, and generally recognized that we are now experiencing "peak" silver.

Agree...

ditto, and thanks for everyone's input. The tone of the article, in my opinion seems motivated perhaps by the parties that favor concealment?? Am I reading too much into this? Or is it possible tha NWT Mint is in bed with JPM and HSBC, and their collective motivation is to continue to suppress the silver price? Either way silver is on sale and I am stocking up.