Is it worth all this hoarding?

[Treetop]

honestly Im not sure why people think PMs will hold value during a collapse of the dollar. If the dollar actually collapses food will be scarce, we buy it on international markets. (yes even the stuff produced here) Wed have the martial law our leaders are gearing up for no doubt. lots of other potentials come with that to chaotic to predict. But what of PMs?

I think its to complicated to put into easy terms. If you had to flee the country and carry wealth in your pocket only gold works. But your in a fading empire whos currency just burst, martial law in the streets, people angry and hungry.... what will shiny metal buy you? probably nothing. I know many here do not agree. Even as things start stabilizing from such an event.... people will want tangiles, shiny metals wont matter much to most.

If PMs would result in the biggest transfer of wealth the worlds known it would be outlawed tomorrow, or whenever its politically convenient.

so for me owning my home, owning the means of production to keep my family fed and extra for trade THAT is the key... any pms I can save in addition to that are the bonus not the other way around. because I DO think the dollar is fiat and will not last much longer. Our world is very compartmentalized and fragile at the moment. shiny metal never does well during an actual famine and make no mistake that is where we will be if the dollar actually fails. If you have the rest in line though, PMs should retain wealth through a collapse, if the feds let you keep them....

[Lemon Thrower]

IGold is not money. Gold is wealth. Money is not wealth.

68, i have to disagree with you. Gold is money.

Good money such as gold is a store of value, what you call wealth.

Currency is merely a money subustitute. it is used because it is superior in narrow respects - e.g. is more convenient becuase it weighs less. But it is not better because it has no intrinsic value and is not a store of wealth.

I suspect what you mean is that gold is not used as money presently because the Fiat Tender law makes FRNs (currency) better money. Gresham's law says that people will spend FRNs and hoard real money (gold and silver).

If you don't understand these concepts, you will be lost. Doug Casey has often written that the first 89 pages of Harry Browne's book "The Coming Devaluation of the Dollar and How to Profit From It" are the best explanation of money which he has ever read. I found Casey's highly-specific recommendation intriguing so i bought a used copy of the book several years ago and I have to say that Casey was not exaggerating. I highly recommend that book.

[Sheikh_yer_Bu'Tay]

honestly Im not sure why people think PMs will hold value during a collapse of the dollar.

They always have in times of famine and war. So do other tangibles needed for survival and merriment.

If PMs would result in the biggest transfer of wealth the worlds known it would be outlawed tomorrow, or whenever its politically convenient.

Treetop, we just fought our latest war because Libya was on the verge of introducing a gold Dhinar to be used by African & the Arab States. That would have wrecked the fiat system the banksters depend on. We invaded Iraq only after it stopped numerating the value of it's oil in dollars for the euro. The United States of America has made it utterly clear we will go to war for oil and to stop a gold standard.

so for me owning my home, owning the means of production to keep my family fed and extra for trade THAT is the key... any pms I can save in addition to that are the bonus not the other way around. because I DO think the dollar is fiat and will not last much longer. Our world is very compartmentalized and fragile at the moment. shiny metal never does well during an actual famine and make no mistake that is where we will be if the dollar actually fails. If you have the rest in line though, PMs should retain wealth through a collapse, if the feds let you keep them....

You are right. If you don't own your house and land... you will spend PM's trying to save them. It is better to the have security of a home and land enough to fend for yourself. Do that first. PM's will be extremely valuable to you to barter for the other things you will need. Medicine will be worth it's weight in gold.

[68Camaro]

IGold is not money. Gold is wealth. Money is not wealth.

68, i have to disagree with you. Gold is money.

Good money such as gold is a store of value, what you call wealth.

I believe we are "merely" having a difference over terminology. I like the terminology that FOFOA uses, which I have adopted. Read his article before you continue this, which I linked above. I personally believe distingushing between money and wealth is important for the reasons he notes. For those reasons he doesn't have to say gold is "good" money (vs bad money). Money can be gold, but money is not necessarily wealth. But gold is always wealth. So they can't be the same thing. And it is important to keep them distinct in thought.

[pennypicker]

This is one of the best threads I've read in a while on this board. I always find it extremely interesting when members speak of how they feel our society will be like when the SHTF. I recently moved from the Los Angeles area to a small town called Medford, Or. One of the primary reasons I moved was that I can only imagine how incredibly chaotic and violent the Los Angeles area will become when the SHTF and I don't want to be anywhere near it.

Sorry but your still on the Drift line an those troubles can hit both of Us I'm trying to organized so I can get to Eastern Oregon I see the problem but just like Stacking I'm slow moving, and my DCA is high because of this.

Do our best an build our teams, we can't do this alone Pray for Guidance.

Rosco you are absolutely correct about Medford being on the Drift line. When I first looked over Medford I quickly saw that northern California hispanic gangs had already established themselves in south Medford around the Columbus St area. These gangs are like termites and either you eradicate them or they spread and over time the eat away at the foundation of a city.
As you know just three weeks ago three hispanic gang members (two were from California) randomly opened fire on two non gang member teenagers driving down the road. The innocent driver was shot in the face. Police said it was a "ritual" shooting to let the public know this particular gang is in that part of town and it is their turf. And two months ago three more hispanic gang members, based from California, were arrested at their residences and drugs and weapons were confiscated.

So when I chose Medford I did so mainly because it is still close enough for family visits and conditions here in Medford are still very liveable. However in ten years I will be retiring and like you eastern oregon will be my final destination at that time.

[Mossy]

Just attended a CCW course. Oregon is listed on one of the handouts as being a very hostile to CCW state, in fact, hostile to firearms in general. Of course we are going to see a large rise in violence, especially in the Western part of the state.

[Jonflyfish]

46.3 million people on food stamps. I'd say that reflects quite a shortage of FRNs. The base money supply has shrunk. The primary increases have been deep and narrow from three primary channels-
1. Excess reserves to recapitalize the banks for their Tier 1 and 2 on balance sheets.
2. ZIRP has put capital in the hands of some financial markets.
3. Selective Central Bank QE to prop up false hopium and prevent certain markets from losing all bids.

Until the reserves are increasing velocity, you won't see base money increases from fractional reserve mainstreeters. Last I checked demand is low and credit guidelines have tightened. Will need a surging economy for real inflation. Meanwhile it is sector based stagflation and deflation ( yes deflation). Deflation in housing continues to destroy the wealth of many whereby a large % of folks invested their "wealth"

Cheers!

[pennypicker]

Just attended a CCW course. Oregon is listed on one of the handouts as being a very hostile to CCW state, in fact, hostile to firearms in general. Of course we are going to see a large rise in violence, especially in the Western part of the state.

Interstate 5 is one of the major drug trafficing routes used by the Mexican Drug Cartel. Therefore all Oregon cities, Medford included, located on or near Interstate 5 will see increasing gang activity, crime, drug use, jail overcrowding, unsafe schools and a general deteriorating quality of life in the future; UNLESS the Federal Government decides to finally do something to secure or borders.

[68Camaro]

46.3 million people on food stamps. I'd say that reflects quite a shortage of FRNs. The base money supply has shrunk. The primary increases have been deep and narrow from three primary channels-
1. Excess reserves to recapitalize the banks for their Tier 1 and 2 on balance sheets.
2. ZIRP has put capital in the hands of some financial markets.
3. Selective Central Bank QE to prop up false hopium and prevent certain markets from losing all bids.

Until the reserves are increasing velocity, you won't see base money increases from fractional reserve mainstreeters. Last I checked demand is low and credit guidelines have tightened. Will need a surging economy for real inflation. Meanwhile it is sector based stagflation and deflation ( yes deflation). Deflation in housing continues to destroy the wealth of many whereby a large % of folks invested their "wealth"

Cheers!

There is an interesting dichotomy between the record numbers on food stamps and the significant corporate profits, which must be coming from some flow of money.

I agree with your observation above (as well as many months ago) that the velocity of money is still low. And I agree with your observation that the different sectors have widely different economies. To the two you list I would add inflation, as foods and consumer products are inflating significantly, and it blows my mind that we can have inflation over here and deflation over there, with stagflation overall. Credit is tight, and has been since at least 2009 - banks are only offering easy lending terms in theory; in practice the terms are very difficult to meet even when you have excellent credit and no real need to even borrow, and the roadblocks and impediments severe. This adds to the low velocity of money.

[Mossy]

46.3 million people on food stamps. I'd say that reflects quite a shortage of FRNs.

Food stamps stand in for money and are therefor a type of money. No idea if it should be called M1 or M2.

I'm not following the rest. Housing was over priced against dollars and reality caught up. Welfare housing is paid for by phantom money, similar to food stamps, and that also increases the "money" in circulaton, further decreasing the relative value of housing.

Cost for simply staying alive, absent government help with some sort of phantom money, has gone up. Basic food and housing have gone up against the dollar, indication to me, an oversupply of "money" in the system, generally expressed in terms of FRNs.

[nero12345]

Here's my peace, imagine your grandfather or father walked in a gave you boxes upon boxes of morgans, peace, and indian head pennies today. Imagine what you'd have. I plan on doing this someday. If in the mean time things get crazy then you may be covered or not. But look at what ya got and what you've learned. Its all fun and a hell of a hobby. You could be a golfer I guess.

[DirtyFingers]

Here's my peace, imagine your grandfather or father walked in a gave you boxes upon boxes of morgans, peace, and indian head pennies today. Imagine what you'd have. I plan on doing this someday. If in the mean time things get crazy then you may be covered or not. But look at what ya got and what you've learned. Its all fun and a hell of a hobby. You could be a golfer I guess.

Well said sir! My sentiments to a tee.

Life is a crap shoot. So are metals and paper. Live beneath your means and the
hobby we all enjoy will enrich your life as well as others.

[theo]

46.3 million people on food stamps. I'd say that reflects quite a shortage of FRNs.

Food stamps stand in for money and are therefor a type of money. No idea if it should be called M1 or M2.

I'm not following the rest. Housing was over priced against dollars and reality caught up. Welfare housing is paid for by phantom money, similar to food stamps, and that also increases the "money" in circulaton, further decreasing the relative value of housing.

Cost for simply staying alive, absent government help with some sort of phantom money, has gone up. Basic food and housing have gone up against the dollar, indication to me, an oversupply of "money" in the system, generally expressed in terms of FRNs.

I agree. Deflation in housing doesn't surprise me. We will probably also continue see deflating prices in luxury/discretionary items. To continue Mossy's point, inflation will hit lower two levels of Maslow's Heirarchy, physiological (survival) and security needs. Beans, bullets and band aids (along with energy) will increase in price while leather passport holders (seriously!) will get cheaper.

I think food stamps would quality as M1 as they are immediately spendable.

[everything]

The dollar was strengthening this week because people are getting out of Euro's, where else to go?, dollars.. In fact we traded dollars for Euros last week when we had that huge run up in the DOW, by giving European banks dollars to pay off euro bondholders, what investors to do with all those dollars?, the next safe haven?, besides uhhhummm, gold, is the equities market.
The fed policy wants a lower dollar which helps our exports..
The most current book, called currency wars is by James Rickards, excellent reviews from Amazon reviewers.

[ZenOps]

If you are going to hoard, it might as well be metal dollars.

95% of the population hoards electronic dollars, which did make sense back when you could make 6% more electronic dollars on it each year, and then trade them in for whatever dollars you wanted to later. But nowadays you might be lucky at 0.00% to 0.25% to break even, and the mass consciousness is waking up to this fact.

3% of the population hoards cotton dollars, which historically has only benefitted one when a bank run occurs.

1% of the population hoards metal dollars.

and the last 1% hoards Zhu-Zhu pets

[tractorman]

Its Zhu Zhu pets now? Remember when it was Beanie Babies?

[Mossy]

Its Zhu Zhu pets now? Remember when it was Beanie Babies?

"Fool and his money..."

[Sheikh_yer_Bu'Tay]

46.3 million people on food stamps. I'd say that reflects quite a shortage of FRNs.

For some yes, for others it's just easy "money". I have a machinist for a brother. He got laid off about 70 weeks ago. He opened up his own mechanic shop and works strictly for cash all the while he collects every government handout he can get. I have tried to hire other men and some will flat out tell you they are doing fine on the dole and the cash they get from odd-jobbing.

The base money supply has shrunk. The primary increases have been deep and narrow from three primary channels-
1. Excess reserves to recapitalize the banks for their Tier 1 and 2 on balance sheets.
2. ZIRP has put capital in the hands of some financial markets.
3. Selective Central Bank QE to prop up false hopium and prevent certain markets from losing all bids.

Until the reserves are increasing velocity, you won't see base money increases from fractional reserve mainstreeters. Last I checked demand is low and credit guidelines have tightened. Will need a surging economy for real inflation. Meanwhile it is sector based stagflation and deflation ( yes deflation). Deflation in housing continues to destroy the wealth of many whereby a large % of folks invested their "wealth"


Sorry, Jon, but housing and real estate are actually up in my area (Tulsa Metro/ Okla. City Metro). I wish they were not... I want to buy some more!
Cheers!

You have got a good point. Inflation has not hit like many predicted 2-3 yrs. ago. Other areas of the economy have experienced large price increases. The wholesale cost of asphalt shingles is three times what it was ten years ago.

[silverflake]

Back to the hoarding (silver in particular is my favorite):

Back in the early 2000s, I started 'hoarding' (as best I could with 2 kids and a mortgage) based on good info from Ted Butler. I had basically converted from being a coin collector (Franklin halves and Walkers being my favorite) to being a hoarder. I bought ASEs and Maple Leafs with every spare cent I could. Now, during that time I had this really weird feeling. The feeling was one where I was so sure that silver was going to go up, that I just bought and bought. And yet the price would just move sideways most of the time. Then it would pop to a newer level, then move sideways...Anyhow I got to the point where I had manic thoughts (a little overdramatized there), On the one hand, I couldn't wait for the price to take off because I knew I was ahead of the game. Yet at the same time, I wanted it to remain flat so I could keep accumulating. Go up, no wait, stay down. Needless to say I kept scraping funds together and buying what I could and it finally moved up over the last 2 years.

SOOOOO, guess what? I have that feeling again. Since the pull back from the spring highs, I am happy to be buying at a lower price, confident that it is going to go up and yet inpatient waiting for the rise. What to do, what to do...KEEP STACKING!

Anybody else?

[Mossy]

Me too, but I'm a pessimist anyhow.

[penny pretty]

to quote P.J. Orourke. in this economy. my 38 special is my future mastercard.

[Mossy]

to quote P.J. Orourke. in this economy. my 38 special is my future mastercard.

Are you thinking that you can take from those who are prepared?