fb101 wrote:JJM wrote:Thanks for posting here when you do JFF, it's nice to have you back!
You once talked about blogging your silver buying/selling experiences, did that ever happen? If so, can you share the blog address?
Care to enlighten us a bit on your system? I know you follow the tidal wave of investment money, and when it moves into the USD it moves out of silver (and the other markets generally speaking, at least at the present time). I'm sure there are other key indicators that I'm not aware of, it would be nice if you could share those or anything else for that matter if/when time avails.
TIA, jjm
+1
Many kind remarks by so many friends. Instead of replying individually since I'm so delayed, please accept a general response about how I trade in this post. If I missed anyone else about anything in particular, it was not intentional so please forgive me and ask again if still applicable.
This isn't intended to sound like a resume or impress anyone so please bare with me as I outline answers to questions previously asked but not necessarily answered.
I'm writing this very late at night so please don't mind any typos or incoherent babble!
The blog adderess isn't available at this time but I will post it when it is. I think it is better to post frequent trades there and not so much here. I trade A LOT all day (and night) in the energy complex, financial, foreign exchange, and of course metals markets, only having posted a few trades here that were appreciated by some and not so much by others.
The time frame of any trade or position can be from less than a few seconds to many months depending on the trade type and purpose. However, time is generally not what determines the length of the trade- performance is. Example- If the markets swing 10-50% in a matter of a few days, weeks or months etc, to me that is "long term".
Volatility and performance drive duration, not the other way around. Although time and volatility are generally logarithmically related, especially when classified in magnitudes similar to octaves in music.
My trading is based purely from price related data. There are two primary focuses stemming from my career background. One focus is quantitative modelling for total return speculation and the other is hedge modelling for stabilizing cost where short a commodity (i.e. airlines and jet fuel) or protection from price volatility in the case of and asset (like PMs).
Being a quant at heart, the tools used are unique and tailored to my studies. Not to get to jargony but these areas of focus are from fractal geometry, nonlinear dynamics, neural nets and genetic algorithms. A bunch of boring subjects to many but fun for those who are passionately curious about the art of chasing a moving target; something I've loved doing professionally and personally full time since 1993.
To make it simple the idea is to never predict the future but to identify areas where the probability of conditional change has taken place. In other words, we look to classify and categorize the market as "good" or "bad" from an exposure standpoint or "up" or "down" in the case of direction, instead of predicting what comes next. In the case of speculation, the future is always unknowable becasue it doesn't exist. Once that is fully accepted, you don't need to know the future in order to benefit from what comes next. The output of such a system has to be simple and effective in being able to take one look in a fast market and know exactly what needs to be done either mechanically or manually.
In terms of hedging an asset, with proper implementation, you can reduce or eliminate negative price exposure, thus eliminating any need to liquidate the asset based on price or market curve fluctuations.
In the end, a trading system isn't complete without the most important elements- discipline, position sizing and risk management. Just to be sure, I can be 100% wrong on a trade or idea just like anyone else. In fact, the best way to make a lot of money trading is to know how to lose. Paying a small insurance premium to protect profits is the best. Cutting losses fast and pressing hard in a big move is where the big returns are made- the "ten baggers". However, it never ceases to amaze me how many have befriended that devil named martingale. Most people try to be "right" instead of doing the right thing. Think about that. No wonder 90%+ people lose in a zero sum game.
Hope this answers what I remember being asked. If not, please forgive and ask again.
Thank you all for your kind support and comments. This is what makes places like Realcent such a treat- friends helping and sharing with friends.
Cheers!
