BOTTOM!!

[chris6084]

Apology accepted And upon reading my text again... something leaps out at me that I unintentionally wrote, but becomes more clear to ME on the second reading.

I am AFRAID of the market dropping to $22 or even $19. I have held fast to my triple-leveraged position in USLV throughout the downtrend... and that magnifies the losses that everyone else is experiencing. To answer your question in a different thread... yes, any losses in one's hoard represent merely a "contraction," hopefully temporary. But when you play with dynamite, as I do with my high risk paper position in USLV, then ... when the fuse burns short, you can become quite nervous about your entire position becoming obliterated, and that temporary loss becoming permanent. Oh well, I was a fireman, I know when you play with fire you can get burned. Just hoping I can outlast their games on this one and come out smelling like a rose.

Glad I'm not the only one getting killed in that investment.

[deacon]

That's what makes this so interesting. Volatility. I think uncertainty on Greece and the Euro will overpower temporary USD strength. I guess we will see.

[shinnosuke]

Great to see you again Doug! I saw you lurking here the other night but didn't have time to say anything then.

Thanks, glad to be back. Was only going to lurk, but this topic has consumed me for the last several months.

[shinnosuke]

Great to see you again Doug! I saw you lurking here the other night but didn't have time to say anything then.

Don't scare him off! Just pretend he never left

Too kind, Thogey. Hope you're doing well.

[beauanderos]

Yay, Doug's back. That's better news than the silver rally today

[68Camaro]

Gotta keep Doug interested...

A lot of content, so I'll have to parse it up....

The argument can be made that the lower prices of late were caused by a strengthening of the US dollar. That strength could, in turn, be tracked back to a weakening of the euro due to the market realizing how bad things are in Greece, and Spain. If we subscribe to that theory, then we have witnessed a decrease in PM prices due to the "fear" of a Greek default. What then are we to expect if there is an actual default?

I don't think there is any doubt that there is a correlation at times between USD index (driven by Euro) and PM price. I've been watching it for a year plus. I've seen it. And we've just witnessed it recently. But I've seen that correlation come and go. And it is not proportional. And when the index takes a major turn PMs seem to take that same turn, but then after enough times passes, the correlation fades. So it has caused me to wonder the why and when of it. It has just recently faded again, tonight. The index has dropped, but silver has up slightly to flat. I'll speculate on that some below - interested to hear other comments.

We have watched for over a year as European leadership, led by Merkozy, played paddycake with one another as they pretended to solve the Greek debt woes. That same leadership has spoonfed a willing and complicit press, which would on the occasion of the conclusion of each summit, trumpet that, hallelujah, a solution has been found. These antics are nothing more than a manifestation of an open secret combination intended to continue to deceive the sheeple of all lands. They were merely buying time for the elites to drain more wealth from their respective middle-class citizenry.

If Greece shuffles through a sovereign bankruptcy, orderly or otherwise, the euro will take a beating the likes of which we have not seen since its illegitimate creation. A laughable "flight to safety" will temporarily boost the US$. These conditions make it hard for any of us to predict PM prices. However, one might safely assume that gold and silver could find multi-year lows given the recent rumor-based price gyrations.

I agree the antics have been time-buyers. Can kickers. The why of this? Could be what you say. Or something else. Or a half-dozen different reasons at same time, all different, but with the same path. Not sure it matters at this point - the reasons will become clear enough soon enough. I've stopped paying attention to what people say, and watch more what they actually do. So what have they done? (I'll leave that for discussion.)

I'll just flat out be honest I'm not sure what will happen in the short-term if several Euro countries default. I have several thoughts, but no certainty. In the long-run, however, both the Euro and USD are dead meat. I do believe that another currency is going to be created by another set of countries and it will be gold based, at least in part. I believe the Chinese are accumulating at a rate of 1000 tons a year, give or take, with official estimates off by a factor of 5-10, and they are in it for the long haul to dominate.

[beauanderos]

As far as the dollar up metals down correlation goes, there is some validity to that, but not to the extent that metals are oversold on dollar strength, nor recapture an uptrend on dollar weakness. When I watch netdania with their streaming minute by minute quotes it's simple to see anomalous trading patterns that defy any explanation other than outright manipulation. Normal markets don't trade like that.

[Rodebaugh]

Doug = Doc

[shinnosuke]

68,
Go easy on me as I slide back into activity here. For all their communistic rhetoric, the Chinese love shiny things just as much as any of us here. Watch them flex some muscle in the near future. In the mean time, the theatrics in Europe aren't over. Wish I knew how to invest in times like this.

beauandros,
If we could figure out the dollar/metals correlation we'd all be rich as JFF.

Rodebaugh,
Doc = Maestro

[Country]

NO matter the technicals, or the fundamentals, I enjoyed the ride up today. Most pleasureable!

What happens in the future with the confluence of so many dynamic variables within global economies makes predictability fractal and nearly random.

Still, I enjoyed today even if tomorrow may not be as good....

[beauanderos]

NO matter the technicals, or the fundamentals, I enjoyed the ride up today. Most pleasureable!

What happens in the future with the confluence of so many dynamic variables within global economies makes predictability fractal and nearly random.

Still, I enjoyed today even if tomorrow may not be as good....

It was thrilling. Loved it more than the rollercoasters at the amusement parks.

[Engineer]

It looks like supplies are starting to dry up. APMEX's inventory levels of 90% are getting low (for Washington quarters, they have ten $100 bags and two $500 bags in stock), and Goldmart has raised their premiums by a dime an ounce.

[beauanderos]

It looks like supplies are starting to dry up. APMEX's inventory levels of 90% are getting low (for Washington quarters, they have ten $100 bags and two $500 bags in stock), and Goldmart has raised their premiums by a dime an ounce.

Back in 2008 I personally had more 90% silver than APMEX. Of course, that's not sayin much... they got pretty low.

[theo]

Its difficult to predict where PMs are going but I'll take a shot anyway. Conventional wisdom says that PMs will implode (at least tempoarily) when Europe comes to a head. Now I agree that this is a logical conclusion; however, conventional wisdom is often wrong. Although the destruction of the Euro may cause a knee-jerk flight to the dollar, it may also serve as an important lesson for those who are paying attention - fiat currencies will not hold their value because politicians cannot control their spending. As we anticipate the collapse of Euro there may continue to be selling pressure on most hard assets, but I think the actual event may bring renewed interest real money. In other words, more attention will be paid to the dollar's continued viability because (to paraphrase Nixon) they won't have the Euro to kick around anymore.

[68Camaro]

It looks like supplies are starting to dry up. APMEX's inventory levels of 90% are getting low (for Washington quarters, they have ten $100 bags and two $500 bags in stock), and Goldmart has raised their premiums by a dime an ounce.

Back in 2008 I personally had more 90% silver than APMEX. Of course, that's not sayin much... they got pretty low.

Apparently I've bought more of Ray's "spare" 90% than APMEX has left at the moment...

[beauanderos]

It looks like supplies are starting to dry up. APMEX's inventory levels of 90% are getting low (for Washington quarters, they have ten $100 bags and two $500 bags in stock), and Goldmart has raised their premiums by a dime an ounce.

Back in 2008 I personally had more 90% silver than APMEX. Of course, that's not sayin much... they got pretty low.

Apparently I've bought more of Ray's "spare" 90% than APMEX has left at the moment...

I was just tryin for a laugh. APMEX got down to ZERO bags of 90% silver in 2008. They were sending me emails asking to buy junk from me for a $2.50 an ounce premium. So imagine how you would feel, selling at $11 an ounce... and then seeing the price rise to + $49 within barely three more years? They'll be playing the same tune again, eventually.

[Treetop]

My gut tells me this is a "local bottom"... and I get the "feeling" we might see 22-24 or so... Im not basing any of this on charts or anything. Just how I view the forces that seem to move the markets...

[twentybux]

My gut tells me this is a "local bottom"... and I get the "feeling" we might see 22-24 or so... Im not basing any of this on charts or anything. Just how I view the forces that seem to move the markets...

With you on this one. My spider senses are tingling for a little bit lower bottom too. Nothing other to base it on.

[beauanderos]

The markets tend to do what we don't expect. If enough of us are pessimistic... does that mean they'll go back up?

[neilgin1]

scream and yell at me, but something different happened on Thursday and Friday. Usually when you had equities getting slammed, PM's would follow suit, but on those two days, it seemed there was a decoupling, global stocks slammed, PM's higher....

something else has me spooked. Did you notice how the whole Iran/Israel thing has gone radio silent? same thing with the mess in Syria....its all quiet, too quiet. i'm just saying.

you know guys, i dont know anybodies financial situation, or your worldview, but if you can...at all, get your 'country' place NOW. somethings in the wind i cant put my finger on. Nov 2012 is the first election, i'm actually dreading....i dont mean to go off topic, but the way i see it, it all ties into stacking, so..........

[barrytrot]

You are always entertaining neilgin1


What is "get your 'country place"

Please explain that.

[beauanderos]

You are always entertaining neilgin1


What is "get your 'country place"

Please explain that.

He's talking about a redoubt, a safe place (out of urban areas), stocked with supplies and defensible (with the means to do so), that you could escape to in order to ride out the storm if things unravel quickly and become VERY ugly. There are some who feel that the street riots in Greece will soon be playing in a theater near you.

[neilgin1]

You are always entertaining neilgin1


What is "get your 'country place"

Please explain that.

thank you Barry...very much....ummmm, it means trying to get a place OUT of the city or suburban areas. i KNOW that work, jobs, comfort, ease, stand in the way of that, for a lot of guys, but if in any way, you can find a cabin with 5 to 40 acres in a rural county with a population base of 30,000 folks, do it, if you can. i realize a lot of folks dont LIKE rural, like my whole family! they been urban/suburban their whole lives, and they think i've gone batshite crazy. i've never been happier in my whole life, except the fact, i miss them all.

Barry, i just think that in the coming years, life in or near MAJOR population centers will be ...trying, untenable. i'm NOT a 'survivalist', "lone wolf", i dont live in fear, or paranoia...none of that. When i look at the macro picture, i see a huge paradigm change, what that looks like? i dunno. The Upper Midwest is good, wood, water, protein, and a killing winter. Why a "killing winter"? its keeps you hardy, it kills a lot of pestilence, and keeps the part timers away.

and if you're a trader, y'know, for a living, you can still rock-n-roll in the sticks, no problem. it was just a rejoinder, a suggestion, i hope this missive finds you well. gratefully, neil

[neilgin1]

You are always entertaining neilgin1


What is "get your 'country place"

Please explain that.

He's talking about a redoubt, a safe place (out of urban areas), stocked with supplies and defensible (with the means to do so), that you could escape to in order to ride out the storm if things unravel quickly and become VERY ugly. There are some who feel that the street riots in Greece will soon be playing in a theater near you.

YES!!!! Raymundo you said WAY better than i ever could!!!! i guess i am going batshite goofy, i cant even describe things accurately.

i know this is the second recco, but watch this film guys...i'm telling ya'll, it'll rock your world!

"Take Shelter"
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I5U4TtYpKIc

[Treetop]

You are always entertaining neilgin1


What is "get your 'country place"

Please explain that.

thank you Barry...very much....ummmm, it means trying to get a place OUT of the city or suburban areas. i KNOW that work, jobs, comfort, ease, stand in the way of that, for a lot of guys, but if in any way, you can find a cabin with 5 to 40 acres in a rural county with a population base of 30,000 folks, do it, if you can. i realize a lot of folks dont LIKE rural, like my whole family! they been urban/suburban their whole lives, and they think i've gone batshite crazy. i've never been happier in my whole life, except the fact, i miss them all.

Barry, i just think that in the coming years, life in or near MAJOR population centers will be ...trying, untenable. i'm NOT a 'survivalist', "lone wolf", i dont live in fear, or paranoia...none of that. When i look at the macro picture, i see a huge paradigm change, what that looks like? i dunno. The Upper Midwest is good, wood, water, protein, and a killing winter. Why a "killing winter"? its keeps you hardy, it kills a lot of pestilence, and keeps the part timers away.

and if you're a trader, y'know, for a living, you can still rock-n-roll in the sticks, no problem. it was just a rejoinder, a suggestion, i hope this missive finds you well. gratefully, neil

I was slowly heading towards being a homesteader before I ever thought it may one day be needed.... Im not moving so slow presently though. Im also setting up to be more off grid then I probably would have been naturally.

My plans encompass a range of scenarios because of our current economic issues, and the frailty of many of our modern systems and how they might react to various inputs. The food grid for instance is now a just in time set up. A delay of a week anywhere in the line would be devastating and potentilly cause deep issues. Lots of other similar factors... It wouldnt have to take much to upset the ccurrent paradigm and if people react poorly (we now have millions who believe life is an entitlement) it could be painful to put it mildly..

I think you are spot on myself.

Id point out, larger tracts like 5-40 acres sure make it easier but with the right knowledge you can get by on much less land then it seems you believe is needed.

My wife and I had a very conservative plan to get to our homestead. We bought a cheap place in town and were already growing a decent amount of food. It was half paid off, but the winds are speeding up in our opinions, and instead of paying off the other place and saving a few years to buy the dreamplace, we found a new place out of town early. financially speaking this was a very unwise move, even though the spot is top notch. We can afford it of course or we wouldnt have done it, but we lost all the capitol invested in the cheap place in town. We didnt save up a nice stash to get this place, in fact we sold some of our savings for the down payment.

our long term plans work in any future not excessively draconian or mad max style. (orchards) Im just about as ready as one could be if things do unravel. Im not saying they WILL, but our food grid especially concerns me in light of a dozen or more issues and how fragile of a system it actually is.