by neilgin1 » Tue Dec 07, 2010 2:18 pm
just a thought, and i said it before, we punch above 30...which we did. a bull trap is sprung.
we then re-test 25. stronger possibility is that 25 holds. we then get range bound, back and forth, grinding it out between 25 and 30.
the longer we stay in this range the better, long term.
obviously, there have been shenanigans played with the silver market for quite a few years. These game players arent going to give up that easily, which is why you could even see silver take out 25, and retest the major support in the 20-21 area.
This will seem like the end of the world to those, who can see thru the mist, those who actually hold physical silver, but its not.
i noticed something very curious this morning on Ebay, i've never seen before; when i punch search...then silver, then coins and collectibles, you'll see "US Coins"...and i saw a figure i've never seen before, over 89,000 offerings. its my habit then to hit "rolls", coz thats what i buy.....349 offerings, the most i've ever seen.
people just coming out of the woodwork, dealers i've never seen, a lot of good stuff offered, a lot of junk offered, seems like some guys just emptying their hoards, and they're doing it at way above prevailing market, making you reach for the silver.
i've seen this on the trading floor in the past, in other markets, when you get a spiky blow off to the upside, guys get panicky and just start reaching for anything they can get their hands on, either they're shorts getting royally nailed, and just giving in...OR, they're guys who ARE NOT in, that just think "heck with it', and buy anything offered......and usually what happens after the dust settles, the market trades back down to support, and i believe that's what's happening right here.
believe me, i am not "talking" my position. i'm long, i know in my gut silver is going WAY higher, but the worst thing, technically that could happen now, is if we start spiking crazy to the upside. in my opinion, a lot of these Ebay buyers are buying weak, meaning a lot of people are going to holding ASE rolls they bought at $700 (35 ea)...or 90's, they paid 23 to 27X (i've seen a whole bunch of "BTN"'s offered at 30X PLUS).....and they are going to sit on them, hoping for the moon, or WORSE, bought their silver with credit cards, and sooner or later, when they dont see that 50 to 100 an ounce silver, they are salivating over...then they bomb out.
Holding physical silver is a currency insurance policy....a good one, but it's nothing to get passionate over.
meaning i wish to offend nobody by my opinion, which i make dispassionately. i hope every member of this board is indeed enriched by their holdings and trade. my opinion is just that, an opinion, and i could very easily be wrong.
respectfully, neil