SILVER - WAS $31-$49, WAS $33-$43, NOW $44+

[Country]

I guess the big question is did everyone buy the one-year dip increasing your SILVER holdings, or have you sold off some your holdings of SILVER since then? Personally, I have more SILVER now then I did then. How about YOU!

For the past few months, SILVER has been consolidating. I think things will get HOT again this fall, starting in August. NOW is a great time to stack, and we are in the OFF-SEASON, moving into summer.

[Chief]

I have not bought much this year with the decreased prices, except when Ag was at around $28. All my new Ag is from CRH. Haven't sold a damn dime. I agree right now is a great time to stack cheaper than last summer/fall. The prediction for $100/toz. Ag has seemed like a crazy thought the past 5 months, but damn, all the QE and Federal spending will come into play and make a big impact on PM prices.

[Engineer]

I'm wondering if today's spike in silver has anything to do with the spike in lease rates 2 weeks ago.

[shinnosuke]

About $26.90 now. Group buy time? Wait for Europe to fully crater and then buy?

[blackrabbit]

Wow, some drop today! I am surprised it got down to 26 and change and if I had a stack of FRN's that were not already allocated I would be buying now. Too bad I jumped the gun too many over the past year since the peak. I should have waited, but then again I probably would have blown the money some other way. I am not too worried about it. Actually I going to check e-bay for deals right now. I do have some paypal funds I can blow.

[Coppergot]

I understand when buying silver from a business paying a little over spot to cover overhead. But lately as the spot price drops I'm running into individuals asking a premium for junk silver! So am I just a tight ass or are these people crazy?? I understand when buying eagles and maples they carry a small premium, but 90% and rounds? ?

[blackrabbit]

I would not pay premiums except on rare stuff because if the Euro totally blows it could drop some more.

[henrysmedford]

Big up today.

[shinnosuke]

Big up today.

Thanks for resurrecting this thread. We had some great discussions here.

I was in my LCS about an hour ago trading some Au for Ag. They were puzzled why PMs, especially silver, were up so much.

[Country]

I guess the big question is did everyone buy the one-year dip increasing your SILVER holdings, or have you sold off some your holdings of SILVER since then? Personally, I have more SILVER now then I did then. How about YOU!

For the past few months, SILVER has been consolidating. I think things will get HOT again this fall, starting in August. NOW is a great time to stack, and we are in the OFF-SEASON, moving into summer.

Told Ya...

[68Camaro]

I used the time to buy, and to lower my average unit cost by $1.50. I don't sell - I'm like a silver black hole... It comes in - it never goes out again.

[twentybux]

I guess the big question is did everyone buy the one-year dip increasing your SILVER holdings, or have you sold off some your holdings of SILVER since then? Personally, I have more SILVER now then I did then. How about YOU!

For the past few months, SILVER has been consolidating. I think things will get HOT again this fall, starting in August. NOW is a great time to stack, and we are in the OFF-SEASON, moving into summer.

Told Ya...

+1 Yes you did.

[scyther]

So how do you guys think it's going to go? I still didn't get my order done yet because my dad's being paranoid and doesn't want me to buy on the internet. Should I buy as soon as possible before it goes higher or wait and see if it goes back down?

[henrysmedford]

Looking forward to $31

[68Camaro]

We've got too many 30+ silver threads going at once for me to be interested in, so I'm going to limit any of my posting to this one and PM Rally.

I'm happy to see it back over 30, but I personally can't get too excited until we have a multi-week close over 35. (I understand traders will be very excited at the movement itself, because that's what they make money on, but that's not my interest.) This COULD be the start of the next phase of the bull rally, and I would definitely want to be in the market now versus later, but it's truly impossible to be sure where we are.

Except that if you have physical, you are protected.

What I tend to believe?

There is a pattern to the price manipulation, remember. First QE. Intervention reduced, and PM prices surge. Then TPTB realize that the QE effect has maxed, and is dropping. Then back to PM manipulation to force small investors from fleeing to PMs.

I tend to believe that we have only one more round of major QE left before people realize that the emperor has no clothes. That the next major round of manipulation will occur 6-12 months after the next major round of QE, and silver will drop again. But that will be the end of both QE and price manipulation. QE will be seen to be ineffective. PMs will be seen to be manipulated and physical will reign, and prices will surge. As part of this we will likely see a major headline event (bank/currency failures, war, realization that physical is tight, etc) that will cause the next bull run phase to kick-off.

[68Camaro]

Adder - Murphy of GATA is saying http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RuwkztXa8qQ that JPM is toast and the manipulation is over. That would be a game-changer, but I'll believe it for sure when I see it.

[reddirtcoins]

Up $1.00... wow!!

[brian0918]

One of these days, I'll start buying low and selling high. The only time I've ever done that was when I first started buying, and even then it didn't seem low at the time, only later in hindsight. I guess it's in human nature to not want to buy before the bottom, and to want to be sure it is consistently going up before buying (at which point the price may start to drop).

[avidbrandy]

Ok. This is me. just posting here because I noticed we're at almost 1000 posts and I haven't posted in like 900 posts. I have no views to express. I may or may not be drunk. Somebody point out when they get post number 1000 on this thread.

That is all.

[shinnosuke]

Ok. This is me. just posting here because I noticed we're at almost 1000 posts and I haven't posted in like 900 posts. I have no views to express. I may or may not be drunk. Somebody point out when they get post number 1000 on this thread.

That is all.

OK, this post earns you a lunch at the Mongolian Buffet some time next week.

My post will be #994 in this thread.

[avidbrandy]

Ok. This is me. just posting here because I noticed we're at almost 1000 posts and I haven't posted in like 900 posts. I have no views to express. I may or may not be drunk. Somebody point out when they get post number 1000 on this thread.

That is all.

OK, this post earns you a lunch at the Mongolian Buffet some time next week.

My post will be #994 in this thread.

=P you're awesome. I'm on the one hour only schedule right now so it'll be like 11:10. does wednesday work for you?


#995

[shinnosuke]

Ok. This is me. just posting here because I noticed we're at almost 1000 posts and I haven't posted in like 900 posts. I have no views to express. I may or may not be drunk. Somebody point out when they get post number 1000 on this thread.

That is all.

OK, this post earns you a lunch at the Mongolian Buffet some time next week.

My post will be #994 in this thread.

=P you're awesome. I'm on the one hour only schedule right now so it'll be like 11:10. does wednesday work for you?


#995

Yep, see you there. #996

And we've completely hijacked the thread so here's an on-topic article from zerohedge:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/gold-and-silver-win-week-dow-sees-first-weekly-loss-seven

[slickeast]

I just went back and read the posts on the ride to $49. That was an exciting time. It reminds me that when it is going up, we dont know how far it will go before it falls off a cliff.

[68Camaro]

I just went back and read the posts on the ride to $49. That was an exciting time. It reminds me that when it is going up, we dont know how far it will go before it falls off a cliff.

This is an over-simplification, but presents an idea. If you consider that gold and silver are in a long-term correction...

Except for times when the rules change (re-valuation, discussed later) the nature of stable corrections (which is the PM path for the past 10 years) is (on average) a straight line. Unstable corrections (irrational exhuberance, etc) that differ sharply either up or down eventually get pulled back to the trend line. If you look at a long-term data and use your imagination (in lieu of a curve fit) we've been below the line and have now corrected close to where one might argue we should be.

Gold is still under its trend line - should be $1800 and moving at $300/year if this idea stayed consistent.

Silver has been more "moody" and you can imagine several trend lines, but I would argue we should be at least 33-34 moving at a rate of $3-$4 per year, and more likely $36-37 moving at a rate of at least $6-$8/year. I wouldn't get too excited about a short-term correction back to the line until we hit $40+.

All the above presumes no "black swan". If PMs get revalued, we could easily see a "step-function" change to a new value for both. Some might call that going parabolic or "exponential", but in fact there can be two types of adjustments. One a semi-step function where PMs are simply revalued up (perhaps by a factor of 3 to 10). The second would be the resulting follow-on panic where it then goes parabolic for a short time. The second type would then crash back to the new, higher, trend line.

It's possible that silver could be re-valued independent of gold, and without other events, if it becomes knowns that prices were being manipulated and we are actually in a period of physical shortage. That could result in a near-instant re-valuation of silver to (say) $60 and a rate of increase of $20/year - a new trend line. Again, this would not be the "parabolic" move that some talk about, but a re-valuation.

[beauanderos]

I just went back and read the posts on the ride to $49. That was an exciting time. It reminds me that when it is going up, we dont know how far it will go before it falls off a cliff.

This is an over-simplification, but presents an idea. If you consider that gold and silver are in a long-term correction...

Except for times when the rules change (re-valuation, discussed later) the nature of stable corrections (which is the PM path for the past 10 years) is (on average) a straight line. Unstable corrections (irrational exhuberance, etc) that differ sharply either up or down eventually get pulled back to the trend line. If you look at a long-term data and use your imagination (in lieu of a curve fit) we've been below the line and have now corrected close to where one might argue we should be.

Gold is still under its trend line - should be $1800 and moving at $300/year if this idea stayed consistent.

Silver has been more "moody" and you can imagine several trend lines, but I would argue we should be at least 33-34 moving at a rate of $3-$4 per year, and more likely $36-37 moving at a rate of at least $6-$8/year. I wouldn't get too excited about a short-term correction back to the line until we hit $40+.

All the above presumes no "black swan". If PMs get revalued, we could easily see a "step-function" change to a new value for both. Some might call that going parabolic or "exponential", but in fact there can be two types of adjustments. One a semi-step function where PMs are simply revalued up (perhaps by a factor of 3 to 10). The second would be the resulting follow-on panic where it then goes parabolic for a short time. The second type would then crash back to the new, higher, trend line.

It's possible that silver could be re-valued independent of gold, and without other events, if it becomes knowns that prices were being manipulated and we are actually in a period of physical shortage. That could result in a near-instant re-valuation of silver to (say) $60 and a rate of increase of $20/year - a new trend line. Again, this would not be the "parabolic" move that some talk about, but a re-valuation.

Nice analysis. I knew there was a reason we kept you around