68Camaro wrote:Good discussion. There are fundamentals at many levels. I was mostly speaking of the overall economy - on whether to buy in or sell off, overall. But on fundamentals of specific stocks I don't often do this, but when I KNOW that a specific company is sound, and their business is sound no matter how the street is punishing it, I have a number of times bought after they've been crushed (or as they have been being crushed) no matter what the charts have said, and done very very well (I just have to be patient). That's one type of the fundamentals I mean.
For specific stocks, the fundamentals are only as sound as the truth you have. Much "truth", sadly, isn't very true. My mom, sadly, lost a ton of money in Worldcom and Enron the year she died at a time when she wasn't able to manage her stocks well. So, their fundamentals were NOT sound, no matter what lies they told- and there were signs of this, if you knew what to look for. Countrywide was, as you say, presented as sound, but the books were cooked and lies were told. You've got to be really suspicious, and very certain of what you think you know, in order to invest that way. Last major stock I owned much of was Ford, when it was killed circa 2008, but I KNEW their business was sound and I made 4x my money. But I hardly practice it anymore during these more risky times.
In the overall market I sold out in late 2007 at market peak because the fundamentals of the market were crappy, and avoided the loss. I did NOT have the balls to fully come back into the market in 2009 (even though there were some signs that one could do this and ride it back up) because I'm risk averse, especially in these times, and viewed (as I still do) the larger market as largley untrustworthy. So I lost some of the gains I could have had, but slept better at night for it. (And I did make some PM gains in this time as well.)
I no longer ever pay attention to a stock broker - at least blindly. Tried that 15-20 years ago with Merrill Lynch and quickly realized they were on the take, pumping stocks.
If I really trusted the overall market (I don't much) and if I had the time (which I don't much) I would dig further into your methods. Not a good fit with me now, but I still like to follow your reasoning.
As you say, DYODD
TXBullion wrote:solid post jff
amalekidad wrote:JFF, who's lucky? The Ute's or Cougs? Me! I've been buying as much Ag as possible while it is (was) under $30/oz
fb101 wrote:How a bout a 30 second explanation of what the charts show. - is red accumulative and blue distributive?
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