Other Indications Supply is Tightening

[beauanderos]

http://www.apmex.com/Category/966/90_Silver_Specific_Coins_by_the_Roll.aspx

In all the time I've been checking APMEX (ten years) for pricing comparisons... I've never seen them specifically marketing particular denominations (in this case, various half dollar types) .... in ONE dollar increments!! This can mean two things, that they've determined there is a demand for such small amounts... and/or that they're trying to stretch out their stock so as not to deplete their inventory (I know that feeling )

They're offering fourteen cents above melt for their 90% now.

[madman326]

they're stealing your budget silver sales idea Ray!
if they are going to sell $1 fv, then i hope they adjust their shipping prices!

[scyther]

Provident's always sold everything in $1 increments...

[agmoose]

Maybe they are just targeting the buyers who can't afford larger quantities, expanding their customer base. There are lots of ppl who would think those prices are good or normal. I think more people are at least aware of silver as an investment every week. The commercials flooding TV and radio have to make some people look into it anyway.

[neilgin1]

nice eye Ray...i'm telling ya......more and more, this is all reminding me of the guns-n-ammo thing, but even MORE intense...once that train starts to leave the station, and in silver's case, it'll be a crowded platform ....once it leaves the station, and you aint onboard?

forget it...try this, just say this OUT LOUD: "Five hundred dollars an ounce".

if you do that, and something inside you says, "ahhhh....thats crazy".....guess where its going?

Five hundred dollars an ounce

(later add.....if i wasnt already "onboard", had FRN's i needed to insure QUICK-like, that Ampex board, i'd be buying with both hands, prices and variety aint bad)

[neilgin1]

here's one more little nugget of info for you all on how supply and/or perception is tightening. i'm linking you to two Ebay auctions for a 1965 SMS 40% roll of Kennedy halves and a 1968-s roll of 40% Kenn Halves., as i type this, they might have 5 minutes left:

65 SMS's http://www.ebay.com/itm/130838529016?ss ... 1423.l2649

68-s http://www.ebay.com/itm/200882664727?ss ... 1423.l2649

okay, so what the big deal?

i watch this stuff like a hawk, every detail, and i have NEVER seen that many bidders on ANY rolls of 40%'er's.....NEVER, they have ALWAYS been kind of like an after thought.

Times are changing.

[Treetop]

Some gypsy lady in a dream the other night told me I have 6 months or less to buy silver if I want more. Then she said probably much less. Just a dream, but I thought Id throw it out there anyway. The gypsy dream lady sees it hitting a few hundred in the next few years.

[barrytrot]

My "never under 25" looks good in the $500 per ounce scenario

[neilgin1]

My "never under 25" looks good in the $500 per ounce scenario

whadya mean? i dont get it.

[SilverDragon72]

nice eye Ray...i'm telling ya......more and more, this is all reminding me of the guns-n-ammo thing, but even MORE intense...once that train starts to leave the station, and in silver's case, it'll be a crowded platform ....once it leaves the station, and you aint onboard?

forget it...try this, just say this OUT LOUD: "Five hundred dollars an ounce".

if you do that, and something inside you says, "ahhhh....thats crazy".....guess where its going?

Five hundred dollars an ounce

(later add.....if i wasnt already "onboard", had FRN's i needed to insure QUICK-like, that Ampex board, i'd be buying with both hands, prices and variety aint bad)

Yikes! If only that becomes true. I figure many of us RC types will be in decent shape....that is, if we still have a country left!

[scyther]

The only wat we'd ever see five hundred an ounce is with severe inflation, and I don't see that happening... it will never hit $500 in today's dollars.

[IdahoCopper]

nice eye Ray...i'm telling ya......more and more, this is all reminding me of the guns-n-ammo thing, but even MORE intense...once that train starts to leave the station, and in silver's case, it'll be a crowded platform ....once it leaves the station, and you aint onboard?

forget it...try this, just say this OUT LOUD: "Five hundred dollars an ounce".

if you do that, and something inside you says, "ahhhh....thats crazy".....guess where its going?

Five hundred dollars an ounce

(later add.....if i wasnt already "onboard", had FRN's i needed to insure QUICK-like, that Ampex board, i'd be buying with both hands, prices and variety aint bad)

So Neil, At $500/oz is it better to keep the silver or sell it and pay debts & mortgages? Is it better to be 100% debt-free and 100% silver-free?

[neilgin1]

nice eye Ray...i'm telling ya......more and more, this is all reminding me of the guns-n-ammo thing, but even MORE intense...once that train starts to leave the station, and in silver's case, it'll be a crowded platform ....once it leaves the station, and you aint onboard?

forget it...try this, just say this OUT LOUD: "Five hundred dollars an ounce".

if you do that, and something inside you says, "ahhhh....thats crazy".....guess where its going?

Five hundred dollars an ounce

(later add.....if i wasnt already "onboard", had FRN's i needed to insure QUICK-like, that Ampex board, i'd be buying with both hands, prices and variety aint bad)

So Neil, At $500/oz is it better to keep the silver or sell it and pay debts & mortgages? Is it better to be 100% debt-free and 100% silver-free?

i been pondering that question over and over, and right now, i dont know.

i dont really WANT FRN's, and with silver at 500USD, what will that FRN REALLY purchase?....all i owe on the place is mid 5 figures.

That said, i NEVER want to be silver free.....never. If we get to a post dollar era, i'd rather take silver and buy land, that either has hardwood and/or pasture, take the hardwood, and with more silver, buy a smaller mill, and convert the hardwood, into lumber.

check out the lumber market right this second....bull market, a big one....true, its for softwood pine, but people always need lumber....always. It stores well, fungible, transportable........and with pasture, you can put beefers, milkers or sheep on it......look at beef, same thing, a bull market....might be a day you can buy a 500 pound Angus feeder for 2 ASE's...or 3...protein is ALWAYS in demand.

let me repeat what i'm doing, i never want to be silver free, i'd rather use that silver, to buy the means to get more silver.

what do you think?

[IdahoCopper]

I am reminded of a previous post by someone, "Sell silver to get or create a >means of production<." Your ideas of buying land, creating lumber or meat follow that advice.

I have 3 rentals and my home. Selling the silver to pay the mortgages on all those would result in producing a good cash flow of FRNs. However, that rental income would not be very secure in a disaster meltdown scenario.

My main concern is once the Ag is sold, it will be very difficult to replace. Silver will remain scarce.

[johnbrickner]

I am reminded of a previous post by someone, "Sell silver to get or create a >means of production<." Your ideas of buying land, creating lumber or meat follow that advice.

I have 3 rentals and my home. Selling the silver to pay the mortgages on all those would result in producing a good cash flow of FRNs. However, that rental income would not be very secure in a disaster meltdown scenario.

My main concern is once the Ag is sold, it will be very difficult to replace. Silver will remain scarce.

If sivler is up to $500/oz I'd think your FRNs would be close to worthless. I'd sell an oz of gold and pay the house off.

Idaho, I think what you and Neil are looking for are a means of self-sufficency: Food, energy, water, roof overhead, and something in the way of either a resource you can tap, a skill that is in need, or a combination of the two that can be used to enhance the community you will be striving to improve or means of trade to obtain other necessities you may need or want. Also, this concept of community is one that will enhance your odds of self-preservation than going it either alone or in a small group/family level. It is good for all of us to be prepared for the worse individually, it is better if our community has taken steps in this direction also.

[IdahoCopper]

If sivler is up to $500/oz I'd think your FRNs would be close to worthless.

I guess the question is, if/when FRNs are worthless, what becomes of existing mortgages and debt? Paying them off with worthless FRNs would be a good thing.

But the usual case is TPTB will win and the little guy will loose, so paying present debts with newly worthless FRNs will be prevented by TPTB somehow.

[barrytrot]

My "never under 25" looks good in the $500 per ounce scenario

whadya mean? i dont get it.

I guaranteed silver would never fall a full day under $25 a year or so ago. Some people doubted. I imagine fewer would doubt at the 3 figure level

[theo]

Barry,

That's likely a good prediction, but I don't think we are out of the woods yet. Those in power want us to exchange our "risky" 401Ks and IRAs for Guaranteed Retirment Accounts filled with "safe and secure" treasury bonds (I can see the T.V. ads now). That will be an easier sell with another market meltdown, giving certain parties an opportunity to slam silver under $20 and push gold back into the $1200s. Of course physical would never sell at these prices and the sell off would be temporary (3/4 months at most); meaning you would still be correct in principle.

[68Camaro]

I think such a window for physical would be extremely brief, if it occurs. I think Barry will be proven right in principle, even if there is a legalistic "miss". I believe the physical market will quickly disconnect from the paper market. There is some possibilty of being able to take advantage of it for physical for a short time (there are no end to stupid people, so you may find some sellers that should actually be buying), but as I note in Thogey's new thread, I'm not betting my future on it.

[barrytrot]

Barry,

That's likely a good prediction, but I don't think we are out of the woods yet. Those in power want us to exchange our "risky" 401Ks and IRAs for Guaranteed Retirment Accounts filled with "safe and secure" treasury bonds (I can see the T.V. ads now). That will be an easier sell with another market meltdown, giving certain parties an opportunity to slam silver under $20 and push gold back into the $1200s. Of course physical would never sell at these prices and the sell off would be temporary (3/4 months at most); meaning you would still be correct in principle.

That would make me incorrect. And it will not happen. The $20 and $1,200 part anyway. The other part happens every day in small increments actually. Perhaps it will occur on a dramatic 2008 level again, but there is no need to accomplish the same thing. Take Apple for example, it just went down 12% even though they had a record quarter. The haves take from the have-nots in those situations. That's too brief to really explain "how/why" but if you research you will see that smart money keeps filtering dumb money in

[neilgin1]

My "never under 25" looks good in the $500 per ounce scenario

whadya mean? i dont get it.

I guaranteed silver would never fall a full day under $25 a year or so ago. Some people doubted. I imagine fewer would doubt at the 3 figure level

OH!......gosh, sometimes i am so DENSE!! (laughing) i never doubted what you said, ie..the 25 dollar floor, not for one second.

You're a very interesting person to me, i can TELL by the way you write, that you actively trade, put your own money on the line....and my GUT tells me, that you probably do pretty good.....and i DO understand that you prefer the city.

Believe me Barry, used to be a day, when i would delight in boarding that "El" train to head to the Loop, Chicago, and down for another day on the trading floor, the excitement, the crowds, the action during the day, etc.

then at night, being involved in our theater, we all lived above it...that action, doing plays, plenty of cute girls around, nice restuarants and clubs to hang out after. It USED to be so much fun...so i get "it"..........but i'm telling ya....i feel SO STRONGLY in my gut, that seemingly insane $500 an ounce price objective for silver......now, as for the timing?

one big question mark! i will cop to the fact, i am a TERRIBLE market timer...the worst. Thats why i learned to spread trade grains and crude oil....intermidiate to long term?...i'm pretty good....short term?...poo. i remember in 98-99, Crude oil was 16-19 a barrel, i told ALL my guys, trading friends, 'we are going first to $70 a barrel, then to $120 a barrel.......oh goodness, they all i thought i was sniffing glue!

i based my analysis on global output, versus consumption, studied the trend in both extraction costs, looked real hard at the age of the big whale fields, and the newer finds...all of it, and thought 16-19 was too cheap, so i began to front spread, like i would buy June and sell July against it...they call that a "one piece" crude spread....eventually i got to doing "six piece" spreads, say buying June and selling Dec against it....long story short?.....when i get amped, and am kicking butt, i have a tendency to OVER TRADE, pedal to the metal, and one day, in three hours, i got annihilated, killed!!! i laugh when i think about it now....thank God i had the FRN's in the account to make good, but i was wiped out, a LOT of money......never had to go BK though, which is the most important aspect, second only to the realization, that pure speculative trading...for me?...is ill advised. Never traded again in the futures. Done.

Now, i just stack...thats it....i also enjoy stacking firewood very much, its fulfilling.

well, you have a good day, dear Barry, neil

[barrytrot]

My worst skill is also timing.

I have been pretty apt at knowing a good company or bullion from a bad. But the market's timing is in almost diametrical opposition to mine

So I do trades where if I am "sort of wrong" I still come out ahead. And I've done ok. I couldn't live on my investments, but they are a nice back-stop right now if I needed it.

[68Camaro]

I'm 90% a contrarian. I've made some good money a couple of times on companies that I just knew to my core were badly undervalued, and came out smelling like a rose on them, but that situation is unusual (for me). Those are as close to "sure things" as I can do.

What I have been good at is seeing the bridge out ahead, down the track. Several times my timing has been perfect. Several times I've been way too far out in front, as though there were several curves in the way that I couldn't see, but I was ultimately right. Sometimes being ultimately right is the same as being wrong, if you're betting on the timing. So I don't bet on timing anymore, but I do heed the warning signs.

[beauanderos]

Just saw an ad on the Fox Channel by Lear Capital offering "Silver!" Their entire thirty second (or sixty, I didn't time it) ad touted the benefits of silver (no mention of gold... that's a first) as a timely investment that will likely outperform others going forward. Everyone should call their 800 number and ask for their freebies (pamphlet)

http://www.learcapital.com/precious-metals/ag.html

[OneBiteAtATime]

Goldline commercial on the Blaze. Not a word about gold, platinum, Palladium, JUST SILVER.