Silver inching towards $31

[theo]

. . . and gold is moving up to $1420.

I still think a broard market sell off is strong possibility in the next 3 to 6 months. PMs and other commodities could correct 10% to 20% along with it. Of course I've been saying this for a year.

I just hope I'm in the position the take advantage of the buying opportunity.

[zerocd]

$30.93!

Soon

[goodcents]

I think we will have another nice short run before any corrections

[stateofmind]

I'm going to try to not get into a debate with anyone this time...
During this roughly three month runup, the support for the trend has been at the 20 day moving average. (Blue Line) It's honestly almost a perfect line of support, as illustrated by the chart below. The RSI is approaching 70, and the force index is growing positive, yet not as high as the other two corrections were. This tells me that we will experience new highs before correcting again. Possibly to $32, $33? Anyways, I'm out of the market for now, as I have more luck calling corrections than riding the market upwards. I'll begin buying puts in AGQ when the RSI is around ~73 and the force index grows to be more positive.
I'd hold off buying for now, though, especially physical, until we get another correction. Miners including CDE, HL, EXK, and SLW will be good speculative buys after the correction, buy them when we start to approach the 20 day moving average. Have fun and good luck!

[HelloMeteor]

I'm going to try to not get into a debate with anyone this time...
During this roughly three month runup, the support for the trend has been at the 20 day moving average. (Blue Line) It's honestly almost a perfect line of support, as illustrated by the chart below. The RSI is approaching 70, and the force index is growing positive, yet not as high as the other two corrections were. This tells me that we will experience new highs before correcting again. Possibly to $32, $33? Anyways, I'm out of the market for now, as I have more luck calling corrections than riding the market upwards. I'll begin buying puts in AGQ when the RSI is around ~73 and the force index grows to be more positive.
I'd hold off buying for now, though, especially physical, until we get another correction. Miners including CDE, HL, EXK, and SLW will be good speculative buys after the correction, buy them when we start to approach the 20 day moving average. Have fun and good luck!

What does "force" mean in this context?

[stateofmind]

"Force" in this context refers to the power that the bulls have over a price rise, or the power the bears have over a price decline. When it is positive, you generally are going to want to sell or stop buying. When negative, it is usually a good buying opportunity. SLV is very consistent with these types of indicators, as is illustrated by the 20 day moving average being support, as well as seeing a correction when the RSI(Relative Strength Index) meets 70 and when the force index grows positive. The Force index is usually more accurate when it is negative as a strong buy signal. Most of the time, it will be positive. If it goes negative stop selling and begin the buying process.
I'll provide some links in case anyone wants to learn more about technical analysis.
General Overview:
http://www.investopedia.com/university/technical/
RSI:
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/rsi.asp
Force Index:
http://www.investopedia.com/articles/trading/03/031203.asp
http://www.investopedia.com/articles/trading/03/032603.asp

SLV, as well as AGQ(essentially SLV volatility x 3) are very easy to predict short term price swings. Using trend lines, RSI, volume, and the force index, simplifies the process of calling corrections.

[aristobolus]

Customer interest definately has not waned. You would think that everyone would be broke after Christmas, but not so. On Ebay the "real price" of silver continues to skyrocket! Even 40% U.S. Silver often sells for OVER spot. There are alot of newbies driving the prices up.

[stateofmind]

Yes, I've noticed that as well. That is usually a sign that we are approaching overbought status. I'd hold off on buying, save up to buy after the correction.
Good luck, everyone.

[agmoose]

Yeah, regarding ebay - deals are few and far between these days. War nickels even go for over spot sometimes. Once in a while there is an auction or two that slip through the cracks, but not many. Even the foreign stuff is a tougher battle these days.

[coppertone]

Yeah, regarding ebay - deals are few and far between these days. War nickels even go for over spot sometimes. Once in a while there is an auction or two that slip through the cracks, but not many. Even the foreign stuff is a tougher battle these days.

Deals are getting harder to find. However, yesterday at 3.00AM can across a Buy it Now for a complete 1976 Canadian Olympic Coin Set, 92.5%, 30.24ozASW, MV 925.00+, that had just been posted with a buy price of 495.00. Needless to say I snapped it up instantly.

[aristobolus]

Its there!

[Market Harmony]

Its there!

Wake me when we get to $38

[.02FYI]

The 200 moving day average says overbought .

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?c=$silver

DYODD

[slvrbck]

average shmaverage. . . how reliable can a moving avg possibly be in such a manipulated market as this one???

[Rodebaugh]

Later $31.......see you folks at $32

[DeanStockwell]

Next top will be $33-$34.

[Jonflyfish]

The 200 moving day average says overbought .

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?c=$silver

DYODD

I've been trading for quite a long time and have yet to find how a floating average price means anything about the future price since the moving average is simply a derivative of historical prices.
Would you care to share how the average historical price determines the future price? TIA

[.02FYI]

Theo Thread opener" . . . and gold is moving up to $1420.

I still think a broard market sell off is strong possibility in the next 3 to 6 months. PMs and other commodities could correct 10% to 20% along with it. Of course I've been saying this for a year.

I just hope I'm in the position the take advantage of the buying opportunity"

So I'm not trying to coach, instruct and have been read the riot act before for my near sightedness. But this opener above got me to thinking about the price chart. Which includes the 200 mda. Yes when the price is going up parabola , or slower as long as it is in a bull direction .then the 200 mda could be mute.

The 200 moving day average says overbought .

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?c=$silver

DYODD

I've been trading for quite a long time and have yet to find how a floating average price means anything about the future price since the moving average is simply a derivative of historical prices.
Would you care to share how the average historical price determines the future price? TIA

So with the insight as to why it came to mind I'm looking at the 200 mda Ag as a point of reference to see percentage wise how far it is from its 200 mda Currently http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?c=$silver 30.67 close / 21.98 200 mda = 1.3953 over the 200mda. To compare you look at au http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui 1414.50 with 200mda /1269.54 = 1.1137 which is closer to the mean. I appreciate and possiblly lack your understanding / opinion of future price. As I have alot to learn about charts, technicals and other fundamentals etc.. My focus would not just be on the price moving forward of Ag priced in FRN's but Ag priced in Au. My thinking is that if the the ratio of Ag/ Au has dropped from say high 60's to high 40's for the sake of discussion. That this 200 day moving average Silver being overbought at 1.3953 versus Gold at only 1.1137. So I know I'm looking at a snapshot and not willing to bet the barn. It seems when Ag was nearer it's 200 mda at say high 18's low 19's buying then in bulk if you had the powder then you have done well. I'm not saying that Ag will go down in price. Nor am I saying that Ag is going to be long term loser . Possibly short term just that Au might be a better buy. I appreciate your question and would be happy to entertain additional thoughts questions as I understand you have over 900 oz of Silver for sale.

[Jonflyfish]

The 200 moving day average says overbought .

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?c=$silver

DYODD

I've been trading for quite a long time and have yet to find how a floating average price means anything about the future price since the moving average is simply a derivative of historical prices.
Would you care to share how the average historical price determines the future price? TIA


So with the insight as to why it came to mind I'm looking at the 200 mda Ag as a point of reference to see percentage wise how far it is from its 200 mda Currently http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?c=$silver 30.67 close / 21.98 200 mda = 1.3953 over the 200mda. To compare you look at au http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui 1414.50 with 200mda /1269.54 = 1.1137 which is closer to the mean. I appreciate and possiblly lack your understanding / opinion of future price. As I have alot to learn about charts, technicals and other fundamentals etc.. My focus would not just be on the price moving forward of Ag priced in FRN's but Ag priced in Au. My thinking is that if the the ratio of Ag/ Au has dropped from say high 60's to high 40's for the sake of discussion. That this 200 day moving average Silver being overbought at 1.3953 versus Gold at only 1.1137. So I know I'm looking at a snapshot and not willing to bet the barn. It seems when Ag was nearer it's 200 mda at say high 18's low 19's buying then in bulk if you had the powder then you have done well. I'm not saying that Ag will go down in price. Nor am I saying that Ag is going to be long term loser . Possibly short term just that Au might be a better buy. I appreciate your question and would be happy to entertain additional thoughts questions as I understand you have over 900 oz of Silver for sale.

Thank you for detailing your thoughts. Indicators as such don't really say anything by themselves. One has to interpret what they see and form an opinion. As for my small offering totaling just over a thousand ounces is insignificant to the overall position and should not be understood to be anything of a sign or signal that I'm "dumping" my silver position. My full time day job is commercial risk management which entails physical commodity hedging with swaps, options, forwards and futures etc, which is far more efficient than selling physical inventory to reduce any price risk.