PM Rally

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Re: PM Rally

Postby shinnosuke » Sat Feb 23, 2013 2:31 am

Jonflyfish wrote:As a side note- Folks are talking about the fed and QE3 since the minutes were released. I'm keeping a careful eye on crude oil and the cracks. QE3 would push crude at even higher levels and would squeeze the juice out of the economy. I think QE3 isn't likely anytime soon because of this. The fed has their backs against the wall and that leaves the administration at risk during an election year. Unless there is renewed talk of SPE releases, crude remains a real focal point. If SPE releases are rumored again then there is panic at the top and it won't be enough to cure anyway. The sweet-sour backwardation still exists, showing signs of a global, not domestic concern. It would only be a drop in the bucket and not sustainable.

If I'm wrong and QE3 happens soon, prices at the pump and just about everything else (except wages) would soar to levels that would create mayhem in the streets. Not a winning combination when the floating base currency is still tight and unemployment remains high.

Cheers!


Read a great article on Zerohedge and felt the need to go back and find JFF's post about this scenario. Take it slow and read the whole thing.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-02-2 ... n-and-gold

Here's an example of a few great lines:
Academics such as Professor Antal Fekete made a call for the imminent demise of the international monetary system. (Fekete, 2008) and based on his studies of the gold basis believed that gold was entering permanent backwardation. So what would extended or permanent backwardation imply? According to Prof Antal Fekete, “gold going into permanent backwardation means that gold is no longer for sale at any price, whether it is quoted in dollars, yens, euros, or Swiss francs. The situation is exactly the same as is has been for years: gold is not for sale at any price quoted in Zimbabwe currency, however high the quote is. To put it differently, all offers to sell gold are being withdrawn, whether it concerns newly mined gold, scrap gold, bullion or coined gold.”

Dollars would be bidding for gold, but gold simply wouldn’t be accepting dollar bids. This would imply a gold price of zero or infinity, take your pick. Since physical gold would no longer be convertible into dollars.


Then later:
Money is moving down Exter’s pyramid and while the final denouement may be days, weeks, months or years off, we are certain it would be preferable to be years early as opposed to a day late.

Here's Exter's Pyramid:
Exters Pyramid.jpg
Exters Pyramid.jpg (63.96 KiB) Viewed 1286 times


Another thing to think about is how the Obama administration, with the willing assistance of the mainstream media, was able prior to Nov. 6th: (1) keep the price of gasoline down, (2) minimize poor economic conditions out of the news, (3) distract us from getting to the bottom of Benghazi. Those actions helped secure the election for them.

So here's the best stock recommendation I can give you. Buy the stock symbol PHYSICAL.
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Re: PM Rally

Postby Treetop » Sat Feb 23, 2013 3:21 am

Have any of you heard of the web bots? They are on youtube if not. A friend linked me a video since he knows I like my silver. According to them silver will hit several hundred, 600 or so this year. My understanding is they somehow use the net to try to guess the future based on the collective conscious. So certainly dont base any investments on it, but it was interesting so I thought Id share. They claim it will happen very fast and silver will retain those heights. Investment of the century type stuff. Watched this with my wife and she was talking about how neat it would be and all the things shed like to do with the money if it happened like that. I felt a bit sad because if that happened I might not be able to add to my stack. LOL.
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Re: PM Rally

Postby johnbrickner » Sat Feb 23, 2013 12:07 pm

Treetop wrote:Have any of you heard of the web bots?
My understanding is they somehow use the net to try to guess the future based on the collective conscious. LOL.


I like the idea of this!
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Re: PM Rally

Postby Rastatodd » Sun Feb 24, 2013 7:39 am

Shinn,
Thanks for posting the link to the article, it was a good read. Tyler Durden writes so almost anyone can understand the working of the precious metals markets. :thumbup:
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Re: PM Rally

Postby Country » Tue Feb 26, 2013 12:59 pm

Very bullish flag pattern setting up right now! :thumbup:

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Image
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Re: PM Rally

Postby Cent1225 » Tue Feb 26, 2013 3:13 pm

I was at my local pawn store buying at 10 am. Rather be lucky than good.
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Re: PM Rally

Postby shinnosuke » Fri Mar 22, 2013 2:36 am

I've been thinking about this thread for several days. JFF hasn't visited realcent since Feb. 4th, when he made his final posts in this thread. Obviously, PM prices have not increased since he came back then to tell us that his forecast for a significant rise was "still valid." I'm not sure why he has been so scarce lately, and I certainly don't think ill of him because prices haven't gone up.

But I'm wondering about the Cyprus/Greece/Italy/Portugal/Spain/France connection now. If there is a huge crash in the Euro (relative to the USD), could we see a lot of PM selling on equity margin calls. Sudden dollar strength, however temporary, could cause the PM prices to fall appreciably. Yes, I am aware of the argument that you won't be able to buy much at the lower prices, not without paying large premiums anyway.

So what am I trying to say? Not even sure myself. It's 2:30am here and I'm still not sleepy as I try to learn more about Civil War II. But I think my brain is not running on all cylinders right now. (I may have one of those Wankel engines...)
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Re: PM Rally

Postby Copper Member » Fri Mar 22, 2013 8:33 am

Well I hope it wasn't because of my posts, but could only take so much of the "well silver is going to go up, unless it goes down" spiel.
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Re: PM Rally

Postby johnbrickner » Fri Mar 22, 2013 5:23 pm

shinnosuke wrote: . . . It's 2:30am here and I'm still not sleepy as I try to learn more about Civil War II. But I think my brain is not running on all cylinders right now. (I may have one of those Wankel engines...)


Civil War? A collapse with civil unrest, sure. But, a Civil war? I need to see a better list of the combatants then those proposed on the internet at this time.
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Re: PM Rally

Postby agmoose » Fri Mar 22, 2013 5:58 pm

I was looking at charts earlier today, and we have just floated in a small range for quite a while. That is fine as it actually seems to stabilize prices and allows many to continue to stack at a moderate pace, me included.

I have NO clue if silver will drop to $19 or jump to $39. I will take my allotted amount each payday and buy what I can either way.
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Re: PM Rally

Postby shinnosuke » Wed Mar 27, 2013 1:18 pm

At this point there's really just one outstanding question, don't you think? Will the continuing crisis now centered around Cyprus (remember the problem in their banking system is due to the haircut they suffered for having purchased so many bonds from Greek banks) finally crash the Euro and cause a substantial rise (however brief) in the USD?

And the follow-up question would be, will there be a significant dip in PMs upon which we can capitalize?

Probably at least two sides to this question so put on your fencing gear and en garde!
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Re: PM Rally

Postby scyther » Thu Mar 28, 2013 12:59 am

I just noticed, it's been REALLY flat lately. Seriously. Looking at the one year chart, I see that this is the only time since I've been following the price of silver that it's traded in such a narrow range for such a long time. Even last summer it was moving a lot more than this. I wonder how long it will last...
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Re: PM Rally

Postby shinnosuke » Mon Apr 01, 2013 9:32 am

$27.93...really? With all the shenanigans going on the price ought to be north of $50...oh well, it's a great time to be buying.
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Re: PM Rally

Postby shinnosuke » Tue Apr 02, 2013 8:28 am

$27.62
By the way, I just completed several purchases of silver in the last few days. You're welcome.
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Re: PM Rally

Postby barrytrot » Tue Apr 02, 2013 8:32 am

shinnosuke wrote:$27.62
By the way, I just completed several purchases of silver in the last few days. You're welcome.


How can you lose at this level?

Heck, I'm thinking of borrowing money from TXBullion to buy more FAKE stuff :)
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Re: PM Rally

Postby shinnosuke » Tue Apr 02, 2013 8:37 am

barrytrot wrote:
shinnosuke wrote:$27.62
By the way, I just completed several purchases of silver in the last few days. You're welcome.


How can you lose at this level?

Heck, I'm thinking of borrowing money from TXBullion to buy more FAKE stuff :)


We can't lose. They're giving silver away for these little green pieces of paper. What a deal! What a country!

Yeah, can you imagine the buying spree we'd go on if we could just figure out when the next big uptick is coming. Max out the credit cards...warp speed.
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Re: PM Rally

Postby shinnosuke » Tue Apr 02, 2013 8:43 am

Anybody know Larry Edelson? My dad gets his emails regularly. Larry has been saying for a few years that a big dip in PM prices is coming. "It's not the time yet to back up the truck." is the common theme. Other writers on his website express differing opinions.

http://www.uncommonwisdomdaily.com/expe ... ry-edelson

Does he have any street cred with any of you?
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Re: PM Rally

Postby barrytrot » Tue Apr 02, 2013 8:48 am

How does he define "big dip"? 25? 20? 15? 10? What is his "prediction"?
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Re: PM Rally

Postby 68Camaro » Tue Apr 02, 2013 9:02 am

shinnosuke wrote:Anybody know Larry Edelson? My dad gets his emails regularly. Larry has been saying for a few years that a big dip in PM prices is coming. "It's not the time yet to back up the truck." is the common theme. Other writers on his website express differing opinions.

http://www.uncommonwisdomdaily.com/expe ... ry-edelson

Does he have any street cred with any of you?


Edelson has been persistently wrong for years. Eventually he might be right, by accident.

Let's be honest - we've got to start talking about two prices - paper and physical.

Right now the two are loosely connected because there are people that will actually sell physical based on the paper price.

The paper price WILL crash. The question then will be - will one actually be able to buy physical for the amount of the crashed paper price? My view is - only if you are one of relative few that can get lucky. That'll be like buying ammo is today, only it won't be a matter of production, because the ammo plants can ramp up proportionally over time and catch up - but there is only so much silver and gold to be mined in the world.

So Edelson can be completely right, and still wrong at the same time. That make sense to you all?
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Re: PM Rally

Postby shinnosuke » Tue Apr 02, 2013 9:04 am

barrytrot wrote:How does he define "big dip"? 25? 20? 15? 10? What is his "prediction"?


I only see random emails forwarded by my dad, but "prices in the teens" was a prediction of his a few months ago.
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Re: PM Rally

Postby NDFarmer » Tue Apr 02, 2013 9:07 am

shinnosuke wrote:$27.62
By the way, I just completed several purchases of silver in the last few days. You're welcome.


You and me both. Oh well I guess I'll make another purchase this week. Keep purchasing on the way down. Better to PURCHASE at $27.00 anyway. If the move would have went the other way I would still be purchasing at $35.00
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Re: PM Rally

Postby shinnosuke » Tue Apr 02, 2013 9:07 am

68Camaro wrote:
shinnosuke wrote:Anybody know Larry Edelson? My dad gets his emails regularly. Larry has been saying for a few years that a big dip in PM prices is coming. "It's not the time yet to back up the truck." is the common theme. Other writers on his website express differing opinions.

http://www.uncommonwisdomdaily.com/expe ... ry-edelson

Does he have any street cred with any of you?


Edelson has been persistently wrong for years. Eventually he might be right, by accident.

Let's be honest - we've got to start talking about two prices - paper and physical.

Right now the two are loosely connected because there are people that will actually sell physical based on the paper price.

The paper price WILL crash. The question then will be - will one actually be able to buy physical for the amount of the crashed paper price? My view is - only if you are one of relative few that can get lucky. That'll be like buying ammo is today, only it won't be a matter of production, because the ammo plants can ramp up proportionally over time and catch up - but there is only so much silver and gold to be mined in the world.

So Edelson can be completely right, and still wrong at the same time. That make sense to you all?


Makes sense to me, boss. After MF Global and now Cyprus, I am converting cash into useful things as quickly as I can. No sense in waiting for the big dip.
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Re: PM Rally

Postby shinnosuke » Tue Apr 02, 2013 9:11 am

NDFarmer wrote:
shinnosuke wrote:$27.62
By the way, I just completed several purchases of silver in the last few days. You're welcome.


You and me both. Oh well I guess I'll make another purchase this week. Keep purchasing on the way down. Better to PURCHASE at $27.00 anyway. If the move would have went the other way I would still be purchasing at $35.00


I guess the Enlightened people of the world are selling PMs to buy stocks which are at record highs and going to the moon. Why own heavy, barbaric metals when digital shares are so much lighter and sophisticated?
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Re: PM Rally

Postby NDFarmer » Tue Apr 02, 2013 9:20 am

shinnosuke wrote:
NDFarmer wrote:
shinnosuke wrote:$27.62
By the way, I just completed several purchases of silver in the last few days. You're welcome.


You and me both. Oh well I guess I'll make another purchase this week. Keep purchasing on the way down. Better to PURCHASE at $27.00 anyway. If the move would have went the other way I would still be purchasing at $35.00


I guess the Enlightened people of the world are selling PMs to buy stocks which are at record highs and going to the moon. Why own heavy, barbaric metals when digital shares are so much lighter and sophisticated?



I agree why bother with all those PM's taking up room in your safe, plus then your wife has to deal with those darn coins when you die. So much BETTER to just call your broker and order more mutual funds then all you have to deal with is a couple of pages of paper with your monthly statement telling you how much you made in the last month. Because the market is at record highs and everything is so good with the economy the market is only going to continue going up right?
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Re: PM Rally

Postby beauanderos » Tue Apr 02, 2013 10:01 am

The fervor with which TPTB are focused on crushing the precious metals market right now (based upon their fear of what the markets would REALLY do if not managed intensively) is inversely related to what would actually happen if they were to lose reign. Turn the charts upside down and go from there.
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