Gold $750? Dow 3,300? Sell your gold and silver now?

[50centsaver]

Hello fellow metal people, Has anyone heard of "Survive and Prosper", Harry Dent/Boom & Bust? Dent is projecting a serious deflation starting 2013-2014, where gold will be heading on a slide eventually down to $750. In his video he stresses selling your gold and silver, home values going down 30%, unemployment up, credit drying up, cash will be king. Here is the link to his lengthy video: http://www.boomandbustinvestor.com/pages/bnb/video/BNB1_NEW.php?pub=BNB1_NEW&code=WBNBNB04 What do you guys think of this?! Any opinions would be greatly appreciated.

[NHsorter]

I just don't see how cash can be king with all of this printing. Would you rather have cash or something instead that is in limited supply that has a use other than fire starting or butt wiping? No one can say for sure though!

[68Camaro]

Possible, in very short term, for paper. Extremely unlikely IMHO. But arm yourselves with diverse opinions and be informed... believe what you want to believe, but in the end study your history and know your facts. The production costs for gold are reportedly now averaging ~$1100/oz, so I think any blip below that will be short-lived and probably only in paper gold, not physical.

More likely...? PM skyrockets as people unload paper savings into physical. That's what I believe, based on history and the fact that fiat always dies and people have always moved from fiat into physical.

[NHsorter]

If you think Harry Dent could be right, just stack nickels. If we get the deflation, cool, you have cash. If we get the inflation, cool, you have metals. Probably not getting rich either way, but it seems like a good backstop either way.

[beauanderos]

Self-fulfilling prophecy... If enough people buy this crap (Dent's BS, my words) there won't be as many people who buy this crap (silver and gold, JPMorgan's words)

[shinnosuke]

I bought my PMs with toilet paper so if gold falls to $750 it doesn't really matter.

[barrytrot]

$750 gold - NO impossible.

3,300 DOW - NO impossible.

Gold lower? Sure, that's possible.
DOW lower? Sure, that's probable in fact.

But his numbers are definitely designed for "shock effect".

As for me, I'm buying more. We sent off our tax payments for 2012 and Q1 today so my cupboards are bear right now, but today is now the farthest point from me having to send the government another check so I'm going to be filling up soon and every cent is going into silver and gold if the levels stay here or go lower.

FYI: I still say silver under 25 for a day isn't possible.

[angel2004]

Who knows for sure. Don't have that crystal ball yet. Who would have thought the big drops today. I do think PMs are still worth keeping. Just my thoughts though.

[Lemon Thrower]

it won't take much more and the miners will be unprofitable. they will shutter mines and no supply will come on line. that occurs well befoer 1000, let alone 750.

now mine supply is a small part of total supply, but it has a big effect on the marginal price.

[50centsaver]

NH sorter said: "I just don't see how cash can be king with all of this printing."
This is from Dent's lengthy video, see if I get this right: there will be eventually a shortage of cash, starting late 2013 into 2014 and beyond. There will be much less credit available/people will not be able to get loans. Many more banks folding.
According to him, in a deflation, commodities/gold/silver go down, way down, until they start going the other way in years to come. Cash increases in value. In an inflation metals go up as people use them for a hedge.
So if this may unfold this way re deflation, it would seem to me to unload my gold/silver now, and buy a whole bunch when it's low.

You'd think someone smarter than me could figure out what's going to happen without using a crystal ball.

From Dent, here is some of what he has to say. He states a big reason for the problem is baby boomers are stopping spending $:
(also if you have the time watch his video- the link is in my initial post.)

"What to Expect

A good place to start is with this one crucial forecast: there is a perfect storm of consumer and demographic realities brewing that will likely make the next decade the most trying time in U.S. economic history.

Here are just seven of the time bombs you can expect in the coming months and years:

• Unemployment will move higher again, to as high as 25% when you include long-term unemployed in the calculation.

• Housing prices will fall another 30%, despite the biggest stimulus program in history and the lowest mortgage rates in 40 years.

• Personal bankruptcies and property foreclosures will soar as much as 30% thanks to record-high private debt, falling income and no equity left in many homes.

• States and municipal governments will slide closer to the brink of bankruptcy as their budget crises spiral out of control.

• The federal deficit will balloon from $1.3 trillion to as much as $3 trillion.

• There will be another global credit and banking crisis as interest rates reset higher through the year.

• And, as government, corporate and personal spending dries up, the Dow and other indexes will tumble as much as 70%, first reaching 6,000… but ultimately dropping to as low as 3,300 by 2023.

These are grim predictions. But they were practically preordained to happen, in large part thanks to Baby Boomers and their inevitable progression through their spending stages."

Again, he lists much more in his lengthy video.

[beauanderos]

it won't take much more and the miners will be unprofitable. they will shutter mines and no supply will come on line. that occurs well befoer 1000, let alone 750.

now mine supply is a small part of total supply, but it has a big effect on the marginal price.

Ok... I agreed with the first half of the sentiment... but mine supply a small part of total supply??? I guess maybe if you're referring to gold it's a different matter, but I have silver on the brain... and I'm thinking that with silver, scrap recycling is next to nothing. I would think that mine production has to account for 95% of annual silver supply.

[agmoose]

I grew up in the area where The Villages retirement community now sits. Largest 55 and up community in America. Thousands and thousands of homes, and they are building more daily. It is a great lifestyle for them, several golf courses, activities out the ying yang, etc. But it is not sustainable, and I've tried to convince certain family members of this. That in 20-25 years the baby boomers will be gone, and I think that place goes downhill much sooner due to inflation, rising healthcare costs, etc. There will be millions more houses built than there are people who can afford them in a couple of decades. The market will never return to that bubble scenario of 2005ish. I think house prices will remain fairly stable for a couple more years, and then drop 10% or more again. Just my .02

Unemployment isn't measured honestly, or we would be claiming it is at 13% or so. Not 7.6%. Jobs will continue to disappear, whether replaced by technology, part-time work or shipped to India/Thailand, etc. Example, the pharmacy my wife works at will no longer do the data entry for prescriptions or refills, it will be done in India, and filled here. Nothing could go wrong there huh? Yeah right. Whoops, the label said take five pills twice a day instead of two pills five days a week.

Deficits will grow because there are no adults in DC who have the balls to tell the truth and do the right thing.

Yeah, things will get nasty........the only question is when.

[50centsaver]

"Deficits will grow because there are no adults in DC who have the balls to tell the truth and do the right thing."

The right thing being stop printing money, dissolve the Federal Reserve and return to a gold standard?

[agmoose]

"Deficits will grow because there are no adults in DC who have the balls to tell the truth and do the right thing."

The right thing being stop printing money, dissolve the Federal Reserve and return to a gold standard?

For starters, along with massive reform of Social Security to reflect longer life expectancy, killing the EPA, and many other blood sucking, economy and freedom killing agencies.

[AGgressive Metal]

Remember this is the same guy that said in the late 1990s that the DOW was going to 20,000 during the first decade of the 2000s.

[neilgin1]

Remember this is the same guy that said in the late 1990s that the DOW was going to 20,000 during the first decade of the 2000s.

+10,000!

heresy!

heresy, I say....Aggressive, shall thou join with me as we accumulate oak brush, fashion a stake, and prepare the just and good reward for the heretick?

I pronounce this man....DENT.....as a ......HERETICK!!!

away with it!!!

Stackers care not for price fluctuations!

We are not engaging in SPECULATION. worrying and fretting over every price tick!!!

Very good reminder brother. Stack on!....and keep it real.

[reddirtcoins]

Stackers care not for price fluctuations!

We are not engaging in SPECULATION. worrying and fretting over every price tick!!!

Very good reminder brother. Stack on!....and keep it real.

I agree, price is not on my radar, only the stack.

[TwoPenniesEarned]

Dent's broken clock moment has come. He was flogging this type of crap all the way from $350 up to $1900.

[argent_pur]

it won't take much more and the miners will be unprofitable. they will shutter mines and no supply will come on line. that occurs well befoer 1000, let alone 750.

now mine supply is a small part of total supply, but it has a big effect on the marginal price.

Ok... I agreed with the first half of the sentiment... but mine supply a small part of total supply??? I guess maybe if you're referring to gold it's a different matter, but I have silver on the brain... and I'm thinking that with silver, scrap recycling is next to nothing. I would think that mine production has to account for 95% of annual silver supply.

According to the most recent figures I could find from the Silver Institute, mine production accounted for just over 73% of total silver supply in 2011. Their table goes back to 2002, but the proportion varies from year-to-year between about 2/3 and 3/4 of total supply coming from mine production.

Scrap represents about 1/4 of total supply, and has for the last decade at least.

http://www.silverinstitute.org/site/supply-demand/

[rainsonme]

I bought one of Dents books, and read it. I would prefer to have the money and time back. Dent is all about demographic cycles. He is probably spot on with regard to Japan, where the demographics are the most extreme, but he is probably as far off on his down side prediction for the US as he was on his up side prediction when the baby boomers were at the peak of their spending --- it WAS a boom, just not as extreme as he predicted. And there are VERY strong deflationary pressures at work right now that probably really are in part the result of US demographics --- but not as single caused as he posits, and not not as lengthy or extreme. We are in an intense deflationary period ---- enjoy it while it lasts. The lower gold and silver go, the happier I will be.

By the way, if you had bought your gold or silver in yen, I think you would be happy right now.

[Engineer]

Possible, in very short term, for paper. Extremely unlikely IMHO. But arm yourselves with diverse opinions and be informed... believe what you want to believe, but in the end study your history and know your facts. The production costs for gold are reportedly now averaging ~$1100/oz, so I think any blip below that will be short-lived and probably only in paper gold, not physical.

It's worth noting that production costs are a variable rather than being fixed. Fuel prices tend to drop along with gold, and lease rates on mining claims go down (or up) along with the market. Equipment is another variable. A used track hoe in a gold boom area may sell for almost new pricing, while the same piece of equipment during a bust will drop to normal market levels.

[50centsaver]

Of course I hope you're all right.

Myself I find it alarming silver is where it is at today. I wonder what David Morgan thinks? There are many silver bugs who have said silver will not go much lower than 30. On Kitco its low was 25.72 today. Maybe I'm naive but to me that is alarming.

[Frank t]

its alarming me to buy

[beauanderos]

it won't take much more and the miners will be unprofitable. they will shutter mines and no supply will come on line. that occurs well befoer 1000, let alone 750.

now mine supply is a small part of total supply, but it has a big effect on the marginal price.

Ok... I agreed with the first half of the sentiment... but mine supply a small part of total supply??? I guess maybe if you're referring to gold it's a different matter, but I have silver on the brain... and I'm thinking that with silver, scrap recycling is next to nothing. I would think that mine production has to account for 95% of annual silver supply.

According to the most recent figures I could find from the Silver Institute, mine production accounted for just over 73% of total silver supply in 2011. Their table goes back to 2002, but the proportion varies from year-to-year between about 2/3 and 3/4 of total supply coming from mine production.

Scrap represents about 1/4 of total supply, and has for the last decade at least.

http://www.silverinstitute.org/site/supply-demand/

what do they consider scrap? Old junk coins? Jewelry? We keep hearing industrial utilization of silver results in well-nigh irretrievable end usage... so explain how they determine recycling is this high, and steady to boot? When photograhy used silver, sure, the numbers would have been higher... but that is no longer the case. Published figures from the Silver Institute have been demonstrated by GATA to contain errors in methodology, and Eric Sprott has done some research that shows demand is far below greater than what "the numbers" would have you believe.

[68Camaro]

Recycling is not only recovery from old electronics and the like, but includes (and is mostly) process-induced recycling such as recovery of electroplate baths. It's fairly high only because there is a lot of silver in industrial use. If use drops then the related "recycling" would drop proportionally.