Sentiment

[beauanderos]

Well, that was an interesting week. For those who stack only, smiles must be widespread as they anticipate hunting for treasures online and in person this weekend, to increase their stack (if they had some dry powder). For those who have both physical and paper... well, it was a case of good news, BAD news. And for those who might only play leveraged ETF's, we honor their memory. Services will be at 6PM, Father Rosado will deliver the eulogies.

Now then... what will the batstirs do next? Anecdotally, the "$26 dollar support level" has been tested and held multiple times during this last long consolidative phase. Although sentiment is likely bleak already... don't you think the maniacal deviates who devise these tactics wouldn't enjoy pushing prices even lower? Although they likely triggered a bunch of stop loss sells on the way down, they may feel they need to wash out what few might remain. Breaking below $25 would destroy the basis upon which technical analysis chartists for some reason (TA has no meaning in manipulated markets, they can paint the tape however they want) depend. It might look to them that there is no floor below that clear down to $22, $21, even ultimately $18. It's all done just to demoralize existing longs and potential dip buyers. Sans waterboarding and blasting Karen Carpenter hits 24/7, this is the most devious torture they can devise. JPMorgan... Guantanamo, they both steal your freedom, seize your assets, and attorneys can't protect you.

[68Camaro]

Yes, very interesting week.

It'll be interesting as some of the miners are having trouble breaking even, even at $30. Course copper is getting pounded, on which many of the miners depend more than silver.

If the mines slow production because they're not making enough (or any) profit that will further constrict the supply at a time when demand, both investment as well as industrial, is on the rise.

The price crash is, of course, counter-intuitive to normal economics, so that means it is temporary. There is no glut of real supply of physical metal any longer. On the contrary, everything points to tightening supply, which in a real normal market will eventually cause price rises. And it still will, eventually. Ultimately physical is everything. They can play games for a period of time, and the governments can (and have) join in that game by selling metal to surpress price (which they've done over the past 40-50 years for both gold and silver - until they are tapped out and no longer selling physical).

This can't be done on emotion, or charting. You have to have the real conviction of understanding the forces behind the moves, both paper and physical.

Will they try to move it further down below $26? I think if they could do it effortlessly they would. But I do believe it requires exponentially increasing effort (or rather, risk) at a given time, so moving $1 (3%) is easy, $2 (6-7%) more difficult, $3 (10%) starts requiring some thought and risk-taking or direction, and at $4-5 they start to risk some other major player (and there are others) deciding to call their bluff and demand delivery of everything now or they will purposely crash the market or require a 9-digit penalty to walk away - none of which could go unnoticed. At some point they have to decide they are beyond their risk point.

[neilgin1]

Ray...I got to tell you. i'm getting scared.

not really for myself in a personal sense. Thank God, He's taken care of me, in a real way, I live in a veritable "Bag End", far from the maddening crowds.

But just lately, I've been seeing signs, that things might bad very quickly....and I pray i'm wrong. In fact, I've been saying. "that everyone is looking for 'the end of the world...yesterday, and I feel these "guys" are going to hold this whole thing together a LOT longer than people think".

but then I might be looking at it all thru my limited vision....as the Shire is a quiet peaceful place, so I cant SEE the whole picture.

I went to zerohedge this morning. and its enough to chill your blood.

I could link up a lot of stuff, but let me live it there, and get off this computer and do chores...and PRAY i'm wrong with this unease I feel.

its not just the crash in PM markets....that's rather irrelevant to me, as i'm stacking, not speculating.

God help us, fondly to ya, neil

[pennypicker]

I was talking with the owner of my local LCS who has ran his shop for three decades and he said $22.80 is the next critical support level that might be tested. He's been stacking for years and he does'nt want to see it but he feels $23 silver is a strong possibility.

[rainsonme]

When markets move dramatically, they usually over-react. I would expect silver (and I hope gold) to over-correct on the down side. There is a lot of emotion in markets, its not all logic and trend lines.

[TwoPenniesEarned]

Reliance on technical indicators is precisely what enables the fed to paint the tape. Personally I'd love it to go down to $5 silver again!

[barrytrot]

When markets move dramatically, they usually over-react. I would expect silver (and I hope gold) to over-correct on the down side. There is a lot of emotion in markets, its not all logic and trend lines.

Markets ALWAYS over react even when they move slowly.

I'm still firm in my opinion that a full day under 25 is never going to occur. So right now is a pretty solid entry point based on that logic And even if you are of the "22 club" or "20 club" now is still a terrific entry point. When the MAXIMUM downside is $5 per ounce that's a VERY safe entry point.

[scyther]

When markets move dramatically, they usually over-react. I would expect silver (and I hope gold) to over-correct on the down side. There is a lot of emotion in markets, its not all logic and trend lines.

Markets ALWAYS over react even when they move slowly.

I'm still firm in my opinion that a full day under 25 is never going to occur. So right now is a pretty solid entry point based on that logic And even if you are of the "22 club" or "20 club" now is still a terrific entry point. When the MAXIMUM downside is $5 per ounce that's a VERY safe entry point.

What do you think the realistic upside is?

I think people view 22/21/20 as merely the next logical support, not necessarily the lowest it can ever go.

[barrytrot]

I guess if you think silver is going lower than $20 then sure don't buy And in fact, put your money where your mouth is and buy some "puts" or something.

I'm figuring out a way to buy more despite having maxed out my current cash with 4 hefty government checks (2012 State/Fed and first Quarter State/Fed). I'm going ABOVE all in this next week.


I am putting my money where my BIG mouth is! And have been much to my own delight and income! I don't know the numbers off the top of my head but I've bought and sold silver at least 6 times over the past year for a nice profit each time. (Mostly fake silver although I've added marginally to my lifetime stack as well) When it gets low like this it has been a nice money maker for me. I would say if I did the math that my "technical buy price" is easily under $20 right now anyway due to the previous multiple gains. And with the wonderful power of options I'm only slightly down after going all in at just under $29 a couple months ago.

Meanwhile the crowd "waiting" for under $20 is going to be left waiting this time as well.

[scyther]

Cool... I really need to get a paper account. Hope it goes well this time again.

[Engineer]

I'm figuring out a way to buy more despite having maxed out my current cash with 4 hefty government checks (2012 State/Fed and first Quarter State/Fed). I'm going ABOVE all in this next week.

What better time to knock it down than tax day? The real money earners won't have the dry powder to bid it up while they're paying their tithing to the treasury, and the peasants have long spent their subsidies on flat screens and iphones.

Heck, even Ray ran an ad saying he was selling silver to pay his tax bill.

[barrytrot]

Engineer, that's actually a very intriguing timing-theory.

And your basis was quite sound, this has to be one of the poorest days for those on the correct side of the "free interest" that taxes entail.

Explanation of what I mean by "free interest on taxes" -> Most people that pay taxes do so by payroll deduction and the formulas for payroll deduction are INTENTIONALLY WRONG. Such that if you do what the formula tells you that means you WILL GET A TAX REFUND. People tend to love these, of course. But if they realized that they just gave the government a zero percent interest loan they might think differently.

The other side of that coin is those that pay quarterly taxes and have rising incomes. When that is where you are then you can literally pay "last year's taxes or last year's taxes plus 10% depending on the level" all year and then make it up on April 15th. So you get an interest free loan from the government instead of the other way around.

I would wager a very educated guess that those in the second group I described generally have the biggest pile of "dry powder" under normal circumstances, as Engineer indicated. But April 15th is sort of the gut-shot of that technique and it's tough to have much power on this day or the couple weeks surrounding it

[HoardCopperByTheTon]

And sometimes we pull the trigger a little early.. and it takes time to prime that musket with fresh powder.

[barrytrot]

And sometimes we pull the trigger a little early.. and it takes time to prime that musket with fresh powder.

We always pay 1 business day before the masses do. It mitigates the chances of a "we lost your check even though you sent it registered and insured and signed in blood" by a lot. Or at least we feel like it does And when you have been saving tax money all year it blows up in your face if you pay late because then they count all that savings as LATE + PENALTY. Yipes!

[HoardCopperByTheTon]

There was a long line of the masses down at the PO paying early today when I went down to ship off some pennies.

[HoardCopperByTheTon]

There was a long line of the masses down at the PO paying early today when I went down to ship off some pennies.

I was talking about pulling the trigger early on the silver purchases rather than the tax payment.

[SoFa]

I was in a coin shop today. The owner was an older guy and he was talking to two customers about the crash. His sentiment was that he was scared and wanted to unload his bullion.

This goes against the belief that dealers would hold back bullion if the prices were too low.

I think the old timers who have a significant amount of their wealth in bullion will be reacting the same way as this guy. If you're retired and have a lot of gold and silver, you can't afford to take chances.

[rexmerdinus]

If you're retired and have a lot of gold and silver, you can't afford to take chances.

But you CAN afford to sell it to me!

[scyther]

I was in a coin shop today. The owner was an older guy and he was talking to two customers about the crash. His sentiment was that he was scared and wanted to unload his bullion.

This goes against the belief that dealers would hold back bullion if the prices were too low.

I think the old timers who have a significant amount of their wealth in bullion will be reacting the same way as this guy. If you're retired and have a lot of gold and silver, you can't afford to take chances.

Hm... doesn't that apply to a lot of realcenters? And yet not many people here seem to be planning to sell their hoard...

[68Camaro]

Only applies to people who still believe in fiat...

[scyther]

Only applies to people who still believe in fiat...

Fiat's real whether you like it or not. If I were retired and the value of my life savings went down significantly, I don't think I could shrug it off and say "still have the same amount of ounces, it's all good".

[neilgin1]

I was in a coin shop today. The owner was an older guy and he was talking to two customers about the crash. His sentiment was that he was scared and wanted to unload his bullion.

This goes against the belief that dealers would hold back bullion if the prices were too low.

I think the old timers who have a significant amount of their wealth in bullion will be reacting the same way as this guy. If you're retired and have a lot of gold and silver, you can't afford to take chances.

that's an interesting stream of thought you bring up there Sofa, that he was "scared". You know brother, I don't really anticipate "reaping" any fruit of my stacking efforts...its all for my son, he's been "schooled" in hard currency..same with this ranch...his. The days ahead?...who knows, I just that lad to have some earthly backing, and not be stuck in some darn gummit queue....also why he gets the lead too...off topic kind of?...may I?.....we both love films, and we went to see "The Road" (lol) with Viggo...I remember weeping while I was watching it, he was shushing me....we both agreed it wasn't going to make a dime....but we had a good time.

that stack? them rifles?...that Land?....cant take it with you, that's why death has lost its sting with me....I go to rest, comforted in the knowledge, the boy has a second somewhat sturdy foundation....here's a clip from The Road...(I HAD to!)

[68Camaro]

Only applies to people who still believe in fiat...

Fiat's real whether you like it or not. If I were retired and the value of my life savings went down significantly, I don't think I could shrug it off and say "still have the same amount of ounces, it's all good".

That's fine. You just asked why - I answered. I couldn't sleep at night knowing my life savings were all in fiat and/or paper.

[neilgin1]

Only applies to people who still believe in fiat...

Fiat's real whether you like it or not. If I were retired and the value of my life savings went down significantly, I don't think I could shrug it off and say "still have the same amount of ounces, it's all good".

sure fiats "real", and I am retired....and a lot of my 'savings' are in silver, but they're also in land, and they are in nickels....the buddy, I love nickels. I noticed you "sorted" thru 40,000...I assume you were looking for war nickels?....that's good..probably found a few, right....but PLEASE tell me, you stacked those 20 bricks ($100 FV box, 2,000 nickels in each) and SAVED them...please tell me that...lol....THATS the way to save money, imo....each roll, I think of it, as a Hard $2 metal "bill".i RARELY keep any paper folding money, just an odd 20 or two, for when I go visit my old gal to get a haircut....I got a "deal" going with my bro's at the credit union, every two weeks, they order me a brick of nicks ....two a month, $200, in addition to the stack....when I get first whiff,they're gonna debase?...then i'm doing a 100 mile radius sweep and get 10 to 30 more bricks...mark my words, the nickel is going to be a very important coin, a really good store of wealth....AS WELL as silver....and in that, you'll see the Kennedy 40%'er get real popular...almost a fifth a toz of silver...backed by the 1964 90% Kennedy halve, which is a couple ticks over a third an ounce of silver...this will be the money you trade with.

sure I like the 95% coppers, fine coin, but the brick of nick's, is purty much hassle free...know what I mean?......and I posted on the nickel board, I actually scored me a WHOLE brick of 2009's!! lol...fresh from the mint...sure I could make me some extra money, but I don't wanna be wrapping and sending and receiving, and bing bang boom....not worth it to me.

you know what the best purchase I made in the last two months has been? for $19.99, I bought me, an honest to goodness Black and Decker WAFFLE maker!!!.....they sell those ten pound bags of Krusteaz all in one pancake flour, for $7!, stash 'em in real containers, I live in syrup country, I live in 1.99 pound butter country, cheap bacon country....that machine is a miracle!!!!

well, what t if the power goes out?...........loll.......my 8kw auto LP genny kicks in...waffles for all my friends!!!!!!

[68Camaro]

I noticed you "sorted" thru 40,000...I assume you were looking for war nickels?....that's good..probably found a few, right....but PLEASE tell me, you stacked those 20 bricks ($100 FV box, 2,000 nickels in each) and SAVED them...please tell me that...lol....

Don't know if you were referring to me from another thread, but yeah - I had 20 bricks saved, but decided to convert some of it to silver and so starting about two months ago I only keep about 5 bricks on hand at any time, rotating through them for warnick searching (as well as others I might find like buffs, Vs, and key dates for my dad's old nickel book that still has a couple of holes in it). I had originally bought the bricks early before I had a substantial amount of copper built up. Now I've got a literal wall of copper, and also a fair amount of bullion .999 nickel, and don't feel like I need as many of the US nickel bricks. I've searched through the original 20 bricks and since searched another 16 and counting. I now have a regular weekly order of 3 bricks/week from one bank and I pick up other bricks as I happen by other banks, so I'm always "rotating the stock".