Nice Reversal

[Engineer]

I think JFF is really angry now, he didn't even say Cheers! in the last post...

He must have removed it along with the personal attack he edited out of his last paragraph.

Neil brought up some excellent questions on why a paper trader who personally buys 1000oz bars would bother to post here. I've wondered that myself since he doesn't seem to do any trading or talk "coins".

[Engineer]

Why do you lie? I NEVER claimed " livelihood is dependent on the continued existence of the paper markets, and physical trade is detrimental to your income."

Never say never...

I use the financial derivatives as my means of income to provide for the family...similar to anyone who "earns" an income of notes from an employer, self or otherwise.

It seems clear to me who the liar is.

You've heavily edited your quotes from earlier this morning to take out some of the vitriol, but the anger behind them is still clear to the observer...and the insults are still fresh in my mind.

At one time I respected your opinion, and even encouraged you to come back after a hiatus...but now it is hard to see you as anything but an angry internet bully who sheepishly redacts his posts after he is rightly called out on his transgressions.

Your older posts indicate that you're a paper pusher with some sort of agenda against bucket shops, and your posts indicate you've disparaged them for years. You also cheered for the "mASSes" getting wiped out when they were buying silver in response to JPM's short position. Lately, you're cheering for unhedged bucket shops to go out of business because they didn't hedge in your shark infested waters...while claiming to be here to protect the little guy. It all appears to fit the agenda of a person dependent on the paper markets attempting to create problems in one of the few places where the little guys can trade physical efficiently.

You accuse me of having no moral character, and I take offense to those words. If you'd like to back them up, I'll be happy to meet you in the Dells to "discuss" our issues in person. Just let me know the time that works for you, and I'll arrange my schedule to suit.

[neilgin1]

Jony FlyFish,

why don't you just leave? You make things/discussions around here just nasty. You contribute nothing but PURE FOUL ILL-WILL. You whine and caterwaul like a lil girl, how zeroed in you are, by those "with agenda"...and OH!...how they troll you, but its YOU who do the trolling. The poster, "InfleXion", has a fine mind, he's thoughtful, careful of word, I can tell that he has been around the speculative arena, and your response to him was the DEPTH of disrespect. This is a good man, and you just took the bandwidth to excoriate him.

Shame on you, have you have no honor? I've checked on you, you do operate within the upper spectrum of the speculative world. My question is, why do you feel the NEED to come on, to a very simple humble forum, that's dedicated to discussion of the physical accumulation of both precious and base metals, and then "word strafe" the very people who "live here"?

why?...does that make you feel better about yourself? The act of putting others down, in that oily smarmy way, that is emblematic of your postings? Do you enjoy this? If you do, and its APPARENT YOU DO, then you are indeed a dark hearted, dishonorable man, and I think you should leave. I, for one, do not like you at all, because you are a bully, but the worst kind of bully....a coward bully, because there are miles of fiber optic cable separating all of us, which enables you to scribe your foul output and spew. I could guarantee, in a room, face to face, all us guys, you WOULD NOT be talking like that....and you know that to be true......and THAT is my definition of a COWARD. Nothing worse, than a man who is a dishonorable coward, which you are.

Nate, and the Copper Cave, a stand up guy, I trust, Scyther, Engineer, both good men, I have nice dialogue with and respect. InfeXion, has a fine mind and a good read of the market, and you even trolled him,using the most insulting of verbiage. Shameful, and when called on this type of posting, contrition?....no. you just double down and get uglier.

Why don't you just leave?....now I KNOW, how you're going to come at me, and I know how I reacted to when I was called on poor posting practices, much different than you would, that's for sure. But you will not wreck this forum, try as you might. So spare the cyber blood NOW, and LEAVE.

i'm responding to my own post of the early AM, and I have to tell you all...I got NO JOY in writing what I did. NONE.

I am commanded to "love my neighbor as myself".....and I don't believe for an instant, my post above was ANY demonstration of that.i wonder should I have EVEN wrote it?

But the dialogue coming from JFF has just gotten so bad, so full of ill will...I felt I have to counter him somehow, coz in my book, Nate is an outstanding individual, upright, honest, and its a pleasure doing business with Nate, even though the business we've done is tiny at this point. Scyth and Engineer, I've had many a wonderful discourse with them, and just lately, I've begun to read the words from InfleXion's keyboard, and HE has a FINE mind.....why MUST these good men, be subjected to outright ........venom? (i'll use venom, instead of trolling)

WHY?...the whole world around us is ON FIRE...the general economy itself, teeters...our political landscape in this country is more spooky than ever, so it would seem to me, that MAYBE...just maybe, we can have a little place on the internet, where one can post up and discuss coins, and metals, either base or precious, among other things in our lives, WITHOUT feeling like everyday is going to be "warfare".

Yeh!...the other day I might of have screwed up bad with my little "creative writing" post, but hey...when I was justifiably CALLED on this; I felt terrible, and MADE DOUBLE SURE, all offended parties KNEW, how sorry I was, and GLADLY humbled myself to them, asking if they could see fit to forgive me. i'm NOT posting that to say, "i'm 'better' than JFF"......no, its just that I feel real protective about this cyber clubhouse, and that includes from my OWN failings. the way I see it, you're part of the SOLUTION, or part of the PROBLEM....in any human endeavor.

so, if i'm part of the PROBLEM, I deserve to be tossed....that's how I see it.

again I say, i'm not "proud" about what I posted above, but its posted.

[Jonflyfish]

I think JFF is really angry now, he didn't even say Cheers! in the last post...

He must have removed it along with the personal attack he edited out of his last paragraph.

Neil brought up some excellent questions on why a paper trader who personally buys 1000oz bars would bother to post here. I've wondered that myself since he doesn't seem to do any trading or talk "coins".

Nope. Edited a typo but you go ahead and continue lying.

Cheers!

[Jonflyfish]

Why do you lie? I NEVER claimed " livelihood is dependent on the continued existence of the paper markets, and physical trade is detrimental to your income."

Never say never...

I use the financial derivatives as my means of income to provide for the family...similar to anyone who "earns" an income of notes from an employer, self or otherwise.

It seems clear to me who the liar is.

You've heavily edited your quotes from earlier this morning to take out some of the vitriol, but the anger behind them is still clear to the observer...and the insults are still fresh in my mind.

At one time I respected your opinion, and even encouraged you to come back after a hiatus...but now it is hard to see you as anything but an angry internet bully who sheepishly redacts his posts after he is rightly called out on his transgressions.

Your older posts indicate that you're a paper pusher with some sort of agenda against bucket shops, and your posts indicate you've disparaged them for years. You also cheered for the "mASSes" getting wiped out when they were buying silver in response to JPM's short position. Lately, you're cheering for unhedged bucket shops to go out of business because they didn't hedge in your shark infested waters...while claiming to be here to protect the little guy. It all appears to fit the agenda of a person dependent on the paper markets attempting to create problems in one of the few places where the little guys can trade physical efficiently.

You accuse me of having no moral character, and I take offense to those words. If you'd like to back them up, I'll be happy to meet you in the Dells to "discuss" our issues in person. Just let me know the time that works for you, and I'll arrange my schedule to suit.

You simply flat out lie. You continue to blatantly lie then change the subject by lying even more without any accountability.
Oh, and I made edits at the time of posting after noticing simple typos but you carry on with the story telling. The unaccountable faceless lies, surmising falsehoods, and twisting and contorting words in effort to besmirch and gain favor is astounding by you.
And look- this is all an attack on what I supposedly said or believe. You are attacking me yet when I call out your blatant lies and misrepresentation you twist and squirm into some other attack filled narrative. Attack attack attack and yet you seem immune to being accountable for your own actions. There is no morale character in that.

Cheers!

[Market Harmony]

Jon, What's your deal? I thought I might clarify some things in red, below.

Agreed, but the volatility is telling us something else too. The market is conflicted. The more volatile it gets the more easily it will break to new highs. If it breaks to new lows the physical inventory will get that much tighter anyway. With the HKMEx being shutdown completely yesterday and the CME halting trading 4 times also yesterday it is apparent that the electronic markets have their hands full and I would bet they are experiencing major delivery issues at $20 silver. The HKMEx had to cash out all its customers, no delivery. Essentially they pulled an MF Global, but it's not hitting the wire as that big of a deal since there wasn't any (known) scandal involved.

My (limited) understanding of the volatility is that it is representative of a product trading in too small of a market. A trade of tons of silver theoretically should be absorbed by an open bid/ask system with little change of price. But, what we are seeing is that a large block of trades (buys or sells) can move the PM markets with relative ease. That, to me, is an indication that there is too little open interest, and therefore leads to opportunistic exploitation of a paper market where bids/asks at price points is open for attack. This works in bull markets and bear markets... just as long as there is a way to offload the trade, whether directly or indirectly. A speculator has incentive to seek a trade that will profit from a larger trade that quickly eats away at the open bids or asks.

With the leverage of 15:1, the extra availability of COMEX paper is supposed to help to alleviate the wide swings in price by bringing more participants to the market. If there was a 1:1 (zero leverage) market, then any large trade would not be absorbed quickly enough, and volatility would swing wildly in one direction or the other. The open bid/ask system would have to fill those orders at the limit up or down price of the entity making the trade until that block of contracts is moved. The addition of leverage should increase the number or scope of market participants; the bid/ask system will grow in size; The larger market should then greatly influence price stability because it would take larger and larger trade sizes to wipe out a bid/ask book and create the wild price swing.

But this stability is not what we see, so that makes me think that the volatility simply represents too small of a market. If the market was full of eager participants with access to highly leverage product, then I suspect that a trade of tons of silver wouldn't even show up on a chart.

HKMEx closed because it was unprofitable because there were too few trades

Too many suppositions and incorrect assertions here. This isn't personal but you speak as if your assertions are facts and many are categorically false. {wasn't trying to come off as a know it all} For one, CME Group's (COMEX) silver open interest as of Fridays settlement was about 147,000 contracts. that is a very healthy level compared to the past averages- see http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/metals/ ... ptions.pdf
HKMEx has nothing to do with it (nor MF Global, nor silver plated clads, nor tungsten filled bars) so let's not mix the closing of one exchange to be anecdotal evidence for another. {Is that what I said or inferred? I thought I was responding to Inflexion} It's not even close to apples and oranges with that parallel. Some small time coin shop can close because of lack of revenue and that doesn't mean APMEX and Tulving are somehow in the same circumstance. {who is talking about coin dealers?}
You bet delivery issues. I bet not...not at these liquidation levels where supply is flooding in. {Who is betting? Who is talking about delivery issues?}
New lows doesn't mean tighter supply. That's just pure speculation. {agreed, but where did I say or refer to this? And I would refer to that as supposition and not speculation}
" A speculator has incentive to seek a trade that will profit from a larger trade that quickly eats away at the open bids or asks."- Where did you hear that random BS? {I didn't hear it, I typed it myself, and cannot understand how it is BS}

Why didn't you point out my suppositions and incorrect assertions?

"With the leverage of 15:1, the extra availability of COMEX paper is supposed to help to alleviate the wide swings in price by bringing more participants to the market. If there was a 1:1 (zero leverage) market, then any large trade would not be absorbed quickly enough, and volatility would swing wildly in one direction or the other. "- this is rubbish and pure opinion. For one, margin requirements do not mean portfolios are leveraged 15:1. In fact many are less than 1:1 for conservative profiles or hedge books. "extra availability"? Huh, Availability only comes when participants enter the market. Unlike equities, there are no market makers in CME silver futures. Liquidity is from market participants. Market participants trade for a whole host of reasons. {15 paper ounces to 1 physical ounce... is that not the leverage of the contracts? If I am wrong, and I can be, its not a big deal, but if I am wrong could you please correct me on the actual ratio and whether that is called leverage or not?} The open bid/ask system that you speak of, what is that? {it is the electronic book of (unclosed) trades for all to see... trader X has a bid in for $22, trader Y has $22.25.} You said it has to fill orders a certain way. No idea what that is. Bids and offers (ask) are from voluntary buyers and sellers who come and go as they chose. It is an auction. {agreed, and just as an auctioneer takes prices in order, so must the system.... It can't/shouldn't skip over bids on a declining market, or asks on a increasing market. Is this not how it works?} At times when a majority trade the same way there is an imbalance and swift price movements i.e. when few if any want to buy because they think the price will decline they don't bid until the price is where they prefer to buy. Just like folks here who may not buy because they think they might get a better chance to step in and buy. They (any market participants) can be wrong too and miss out on what they were looking for..

"But this stability is not what we see, so that makes me think that the volatility simply represents too small of a market. " It is no secret that when you compare silver to gold or crude oil etc, it is small and has always been relatively more volatile than most. It's the nature of the commodity.

" I suspect that a trade of tons of silver wouldn't even show up on a chart." I'm surprised to hear that from a dealer. Primary dealers on the LBME trade in lots of $100 million minimum and deal in tons. The price shows up every day in the fix. The large deals, not the small trades, set the WAP. {Yes, the daily fix is set with large trades. During regular hours, in a large market, a trade of several tons 'shouldn't' have the effect that we see. Do not confuse the 2... This market is too small if a trade of several tons can move price substantially}
It's apparent that your efforts as a physical dealer is to attack the financial markets with loose anecdotal assertions and some completely and fully incorrect summary statements. {please tell me explicitly where I have made these attacks. How can you say that "it is apparent" Show me}
When you see bid ask spreads for silver financial products at 1 penny per ounce or less without disparity in a central pool of liquidity and compare that to a dealer who offers an ASE at spot + $3 and another simultaneously sells the same fungible ASE at spot +$8 along with a story about global silver supply shortages only to resupply a few weeks later at a much lower price with much lower premiums, one can conclude what they want about price fragmentation, liquidity and price transparency.
For me I don't see physical as better or worse than financial or vice versa. Neither is inherently "good" or "bad". They each have their advantages and disadvantages. They both offer opportunities to buy or sell profitably. It does bother me however to see people pump and push raw utter nonsense to support one and discredit the other when they have an inherent conflict of interest to do so.

{was this last bit, from my last response to here, somehow directed towards me?}

Cheers!

Jon, looking back at my original posting, and to whom it was directed, and then to see a disrespectful response from you in regards to it, I wonder if I should even post this reply. Obviously, I chose to do post it. I challenge you to step up your game. When you see a posting from someone don't just assume that they have intentions against you. If there is something to which you disagree, then perhaps a dialogue of questions and answers could avoid some of the embarrassment that you could feel from having spoken too soon and redacting comments. There were several instances in your response to me that should have been clarified before you downgraded my statement to rubbish and foolishness. I'm not on your side, and I'm not against you. I don't really care what your intentions are towards me. I think you can do and want to do better than what you have been exposing. Work on your communication skills. They are lacking the ability to give tactful feedback. You were also given only one mouth and 2 ears... you should be doing twice the amount of listening as you do talking.

[Jonflyfish]

Jony FlyFish,

why don't you just leave? You make things/discussions around here just nasty. You contribute nothing but PURE FOUL ILL-WILL. You whine and caterwaul like a lil girl, how zeroed in you are, by those "with agenda"...and OH!...how they troll you, but its YOU who do the trolling. The poster, "InfleXion", has a fine mind, he's thoughtful, careful of word, I can tell that he has been around the speculative arena, and your response to him was the DEPTH of disrespect. This is a good man, and you just took the bandwidth to excoriate him.

Shame on you, have you have no honor? I've checked on you, you do operate within the upper spectrum of the speculative world. My question is, why do you feel the NEED to come on, to a very simple humble forum, that's dedicated to discussion of the physical accumulation of both precious and base metals, and then "word strafe" the very people who "live here"?

why?...does that make you feel better about yourself? The act of putting others down, in that oily smarmy way, that is emblematic of your postings? Do you enjoy this? If you do, and its APPARENT YOU DO, then you are indeed a dark hearted, dishonorable man, and I think you should leave. I, for one, do not like you at all, because you are a bully, but the worst kind of bully....a coward bully, because there are miles of fiber optic cable separating all of us, which enables you to scribe your foul output and spew. I could guarantee, in a room, face to face, all us guys, you WOULD NOT be talking like that....and you know that to be true......and THAT is my definition of a COWARD. Nothing worse, than a man who is a dishonorable coward, which you are.

Nate, and the Copper Cave, a stand up guy, I trust, Scyther, Engineer, both good men, I have nice dialogue with and respect. InfeXion, has a fine mind and a good read of the market, and you even trolled him,using the most insulting of verbiage. Shameful, and when called on this type of posting, contrition?....no. you just double down and get uglier.

Why don't you just leave?....now I KNOW, how you're going to come at me, and I know how I reacted to when I was called on poor posting practices, much different than you would, that's for sure. But you will not wreck this forum, try as you might. So spare the cyber blood NOW, and LEAVE.

i'm responding to my own post of the early AM, and I have to tell you all...I got NO JOY in writing what I did. NONE.

I am commanded to "love my neighbor as myself".....and I don't believe for an instant, my post above was ANY demonstration of that.i wonder should I have EVEN wrote it?

But the dialogue coming from JFF has just gotten so bad, so full of ill will...I felt I have to counter him somehow, coz in my book, Nate is an outstanding individual, upright, honest, and its a pleasure doing business with Nate, even though the business we've done is tiny at this point. Scyth and Engineer, I've had many a wonderful discourse with them, and just lately, I've begun to read the words from InfleXion's keyboard, and HE has a FINE mind.....why MUST these good men, be subjected to outright ........venom? (i'll use venom, instead of trolling)

WHY?...the whole world around us is ON FIRE...the general economy itself, teeters...our political landscape in this country is more spooky than ever, so it would seem to me, that MAYBE...just maybe, we can have a little place on the internet, where one can post up and discuss coins, and metals, either base or precious, among other things in our lives, WITHOUT feeling like everyday is going to be "warfare".

Yeh!...the other day I might of have screwed up bad with my little "creative writing" post, but hey...when I was justifiably CALLED on this; I felt terrible, and MADE DOUBLE SURE, all offended parties KNEW, how sorry I was, and GLADLY humbled myself to them, asking if they could see fit to forgive me. i'm NOT posting that to say, "i'm 'better' than JFF"......no, its just that I feel real protective about this cyber clubhouse, and that includes from my OWN failings. the way I see it, you're part of the SOLUTION, or part of the PROBLEM....in any human endeavor.

so, if i'm part of the PROBLEM, I deserve to be tossed....that's how I see it.

again I say, i'm not "proud" about what I posted above, but its posted.

Neil,
You do what you have to do. You have from your early days here talked in dogmatic pontifications. You have tried to falsely and with ill-intent paint my character to be something that it isn't. You took the liberty to accuse me of being here to sell something. You took the liberty to talk down about what you think (falsely) my involvements are with markets, about my business travels (recall your inappropriate comments about wide-eyed bimbos at the bar?). There are several other times you have lashed out with such drivel. Recently, you went off and write some suicidal soliloquy about drugs and alcohol only to later tell folks you were just (sickly) joking around. Neil, it is painful to write this but you have no credibility, none. You lie and take advantage of folks here. It's as if you have this insatiable self centric need to stand out and act like the hero. Forget it. You should have minded your business from early on here instead of chiming in with your overbearing ego to go off and say a bunch of crap then repeatedly say "I'm sorry brother" "I love my neighbor" "Please forgive" etc etc. Forgiveness comes with actions, not simply words. You have reached out repeatedly after you have falsely gone off on me and my character, asking for forgiveness, only to do it again. There is a pattern there and it stinks as bad as your "I take no pleasure in what I'm about to do (sure, sure) but I gotta do what I gotta do bru" (without accountability)
Get a life bru. Quit lancing out at others with the attempt to put them down, hoping to look like a hero. You're not, Neil. You are like everyone else here. On equal ground and equal footing.

Cheers!

[Jonflyfish]

Jon, looking back at my original posting, and to whom it was directed, and then to see a disrespectful response from you in regards to it, I wonder if I should even post this reply. Obviously, I chose to do post it. I challenge you to step up your game. When you see a posting from someone don't just assume that they have intentions against you. If there is something to which you disagree, then perhaps a dialogue of questions and answers could avoid some of the embarrassment that you could feel from having spoken too soon and redacting comments. There were several instances in your response to me that should have been clarified before you downgraded my statement to rubbish and foolishness. I'm not on your side, and I'm not against you. I don't really care what your intentions are towards me. I think you can do and want to do better than what you have been exposing. Work on your communication skills. They are lacking the ability to give tactful feedback. You were also given only one mouth and 2 ears... you should be doing twice the amount of listening as you do talking.

It's not personal. I'm sorry if the tone ran from other assailants into this as a rapid reply. There are several suppositions that are incorrect. Won't dive into all of it now. One quick point about the "15:1 leverage"- I thought it was explained but will try again. The exchange requires a "minimum" margin per contract. That minimum would equate to 15:1. There is no maximum margin requirement. You could have say $100 million for each contract that you choose to trade with a portfolio of $2 billion. The 20 contracts for a $2 billion portfolio is far less that 1:1 and NOT leveraged.

I won't waste space replying to everything. My apologies again for the wrong tone that carried over from trying to rapidly reply to the other folks who are attempting to besmirch me by twisting my words and blatantly lying when that isn't enough.

Cheers!

[theo]

[quote="Jonflyfish"It's not personal. I'm sorry if the tone ran from other assailants into this as a rapid reply. There are several suppositions that are incorrect. Won't dive into all of it now. One quick point about the "15:1 leverage"- I thought it was explained but will try again. The exchange requires a "minimum" margin per contract. That minimum would equate to 15:1. There is no maximum margin requirement. You could have say $100 million for each contract that you choose to trade with a portfolio of $2 billion. The 20 contracts for a $2 billion portfolio is far less that 1:1 and NOT leveraged.

I won't waste space replying to everything. My apologies again for the wrong tone that carried over from trying to rapidly reply to the other folks who are attempting to besmirch me by twisting my words and blatantly lying when that isn't enough.
Cheers![/quote]

I don't want to speak for the others but I think that last sentence is a good example of the tone that many find offensive.

[theo]

I've often thought that silver's price decline over the past two years has been aided, in part, by the destruction of the speculative longs. Hundreds, perhaps even thousands, of fortunes were lost during the handful of waterfall crashes we've seen in silver since Spring 2011 (especially the Mayday Massacre). This amounts to literal demand destruction as many those were willing to take speculative positions in silver no longer have the capital to do so. Those investors who still have some of their wealth are cowed by not-so-subtle warning: "speculate with the shiny stuff and we'll make you pay." The rest of the investing public are sagely told by their brokers and the MSM that silver is a risky, volatile investment that should be avoided.

It's natural human tendency to find stories and ideas that support their position. However, markets are more dynamic and complex than simply destroying all "speculators" (whoever that is) and rewarding the non-speculator. Everyone is a speculator. Human psychology drives decisions whether they were translated to mechanical systems or purely subjective. The reason why anyone buys or sells an asset is speculative in nature. If folks here buy silver, they are speculating if they hope, think, pray for silver to go up in value. I know some here don't feel that way too. People who hedge speculate that portfolio risk may increase. Some traders buy long physical in one market and sell financial in another against it. Some buy financial instruments in one and sell physical in another.
Some think that if prices go down it was manipulation because that's not how they were positioned. And if it goes up they cheer, believing that they somehow just showed the likes of JP Morgan who's boss. Market are what they are. With more participants the prices are more liquid. When fragmented prices become localized and sometimes to the extent of extortion.

Aside from that, I've seen the tone change here over the months as silver has gone down. At first people claimed that they didn't care because they have "sound money" in metal (I'm not arguing for or against such soundness) Now I see folks very concerned after a precipitous drop. My comments are trolled and butchered. Some folks have even written near suicidal soliloquies here only to later say that they were just cantankerously joking around with other folks minds, along with a quick ask of forgiveness. I've been on the receiving end of some of the BS stories spoken in such commanding and dogmatic tone. When I first came to this forum it was a bunch of happy friendly folks. Now I'm afraid the tone has become not unlike many faceless forums where trolls lurk in wait and are eager to attack others without any consequence or accountability. Not a good sign when a community gets to that.

Cheers!

Now going back to earlier discussions: I think its difficult to represent what happened on 5/1/2011 as anything but an engineered crash complete with the perfectly timed margin increases. Before that day I had serious doubts about the presence of market manipulation, but not after. It is well-known that markets act on psychology as well as information. The fact that silver and gold seem to crash unexpectedly without justification, will have an impact on risk appetite.

Also the underlined comment above is another example of remarks that some might find offensive or insulting.

[natsb88]

...It's as if you have this insatiable self centric need to stand out and act like the hero....chiming in with your overbearing ego to go off and say a bunch of crap...reached out repeatedly after you have falsely gone off on me and my character..

iro·ny
noun \ˈī-rə-nē also ˈī(-ə)r-nē\

incongruity between a situation developed in a drama and the accompanying words or actions that is understood by the audience but not by the characters in the play

hy·poc·ri·sy
noun \hi-ˈpä-krə-sē also hī-\

a feigning to be what one is not or to believe what one does not; especially : the false assumption of an appearance of virtue or religion

It's hard to take somebody seriously when they are one of the worst offenders of the behavior they are continually condemning. Did you do any organized debating in high school or college? Nobody wins a debate by standing up and repeatedly calling the other guy "a liar" and questioning his character. You win a debate by presenting a better argument and backing it up with more compelling evidence than the opposition. And in an informal discussion like this, there doesn't even need to be a "winner." The discussion is for the sake of discussion. Your conjuring of ulterior motives for anybody who disagrees with your opinion is more damaging to your own reputation than to the targets of your attacks, and when you do raise valid points, they get completely lost in your sea of insults.

[Verbane]

Jon - MH has managed to keep an open dialog, it seems a meaningful response to his post would be in order. You make an attack directed at MH:

It's apparent that your efforts as a physical dealer is to attack the financial markets with loose anecdotal assertions and some completely and fully incorrect summary statements

Then refuse to debate his dialog by blaming others with your apology:

I won't waste space replying to everything. My apologies again for the wrong tone that carried over from trying to rapidly reply to the other folks who are attempting to besmirch me by twisting my words and blatantly lying when that isn't enough

Since most of us are not gifted with first hand knowledge of the paper silver market, terminology can sometimes get in the way. When I read MH's statement below, I took it to mean one thing. In your return attack, you targeted on the word leverage, and missed what i assume the intent of the comment was. I have changed that word in the quote below, is the intent of this comment still wrong in your opinion? This is my translation of what I assume MH was saying:

With the leverage RATIO of 15:1, the extra availability of COMEX paper is supposed to help to alleviate the wide swings in price by bringing more participants to the market. If there was a 1:1 (zero leverage RATIO) market, then any large trade would not be absorbed quickly enough, and volatility would swing wildly in one direction or the other.

I look forward to your thoughts, or a reply to MH's original post

[Jonflyfish]

Now going back to earlier discussions: I think its difficult to represent what happened on 5/1/2011 as anything but an engineered crash complete with the perfectly timed margin increases. Before that day I had serious doubts about the presence of market manipulation, but not after. It is well-known that markets act on psychology as well as information. The fact that silver and gold seem to crash unexpectedly without justification, will have an impact on risk appetite.

Also the underlined comment above is another example of remarks that some might find offensive or insulting.

Transaction volumes when there may be an imbalance due to off-peak market hours, position liquidation etc etc are commonplace. It is widely known that as a commodity, silver is less liquid and more volatile than most other traded commodities. Often folks look for stories to support what they see or feel and if they don't find what they are looking for based on their paradigm they tend to classify the activity to some general surmising, often "market manipulation" with little or no anecdotal evidence in order to resolve the inherent need to know. Others (myself included) simply look at what is happening and take it for what it is. There were several transactions that took place during the price imbalance and thereafter. I was able to execute trades during that time. It wouldn't surprise me if later you read about someone liquidating a position recently for whatever reason. As for exchanges increasing margin during extreme volatility, this is prudent risk management as they act as the ultimate counter party if the matched party becomes insolvent, which can occur with extreme risk. Margin requirements are set based on volatility. Some may attack that concept but it is a good way to control the playing field so that those participating maintain confidence in the counter party as well as remaining solvent themselves, if they have high portfolio exposures.
Gold and silver crashing at times is no different than any other asset that has precipitous price declines from the standpoint that investors tend to accumulate positions over time but decide to exit the entire position at once.
As for the underlined comments. I apologize if you are offended by my statement that others have deliberately twisted my comments around into representing things I didn't say then attacking those points as if I said them in a very conscious effort to discredit and draw negativity about those points. When that hasn't been enough they have fabricated complete lies, quoting and saying things that I have never said for the same purpose. They then are not held accountable for their comments and move on to new attacking points or holding on to a short straw in repetition. It's quite despicable, tasteless and ill intended. I'm quite flabbergasted actually that they have such ardent hatred and lack of moral character as to lie and individually go after someone here. In my own defense, all of the characters involved in this have been the ultimate instigators. I simply defend my position and refuse to let their lies stick.

Cheers!

[theo]

Jon,

I have a few questions:

1. What, in your opinion caused the May 1st silver crash of 2011? Was there any piece of news that caused a 10% "flash crash" of silver in minutes?

"I apologize if you are offended by my statement that others have deliberately twisted my comments around into representing things I didn't say then attacking those points as if I said them in a very conscious effort to discredit and draw negativity about those points. When that hasn't been enough they have fabricated complete lies, quoting and saying things that I have never said for the same purpose."

2. You've mentioned variations of the above quote several times. . Can you site an example of such a "complete fabrication" of your statements?

[Jonflyfish]

It's hard to take somebody seriously when they are one of the worst offenders of the behavior they are continually condemning. Did you do any organized debating in high school or college? Nobody wins a debate by standing up and repeatedly calling the other guy "a liar" and questioning his character. You win a debate by presenting a better argument and backing it up with more compelling evidence than the opposition. And in an informal discussion like this, there doesn't even need to be a "winner." The discussion is for the sake of discussion. Your conjuring of ulterior motives for anybody who disagrees with your opinion is more damaging to your own reputation than to the targets of your attacks, and when you do raise valid points, they get completely lost in your sea of insults.

For one, I am not here to debate but I will defend myself. I am not here to win anything. I came to this forum to offer musings like anyone else. If I have some additional information about a topic than some others, some might see that as adding value to the forum. Some may not. Doesn't sway me one way or the other. When someone disagrees, that's fine. If I support my comments with certain knowledge in certain areas where the person in disagreement obviously doesn't have that experience or background, so what.

When someone is attacking me and blatantly lying in order to discredit, I will stand and defend against such low moral behavior. And when they simply fabricate lies (not misunderstandings or accidentally miss stating something) to mislead people I will question their character and intent. Here, all we have are our words. They should mean something. If people write suicidal soliloquies, talking about drug and alcohol abuse, queers etc then later, after many folks were genuinely concerned because they read what they read and took it to be truth, then later the character who wrote the post says something to the tune of "Just kidding. It was a joke- sorry", that isn't anything but sick. That same person has used this forum as a stage to try and out duel others with the "been there done that so I know more" mantra, while talking down in dogmatic pontifications to appear more accomplished or whatever the motive, I don't know. He has taken the time to lash out and say numerous imaginary and provocative insults and rants in efforts to smear my character. After he has done so, I have engaged to defend myself against his cry for attention. Later he apologizes, sometimes at length, rinse, repeat.
Quite frankly, none of his prior stories can be viewed as anything but tall tales of fantasy after what he has done.

You can defend him though. That's your choice. I know the efforts he has exerted to offend me in the past. He instigated them. My defense may not have been as polite as some but it wasn't I who made up the stories and name calling, offensive and fictitious suggestions etc ( wide-eyed bimbo at the bar etc)

Yes my reactions to others who make it a point to attack and insult me can be very direct. They have started the jib jab, I have not. Once they have done this, like the case of the grand story teller, I know they'll do it again and they have already established themselves, so being polite to someone of that character isn't something I have time or care for.

Cheers!

[Jonflyfish]

Jon,

I have a few questions:

1. What, in your opinion caused the May 1st silver crash of 2011? Was there any piece of news that caused a 10% "flash crash" of silver in minutes?

"I apologize if you are offended by my statement that others have deliberately twisted my comments around into representing things I didn't say then attacking those points as if I said them in a very conscious effort to discredit and draw negativity about those points. When that hasn't been enough they have fabricated complete lies, quoting and saying things that I have never said for the same purpose."

2. You've mention this several times. Can you site an example of such a "complete fabrication?"

1. I honestly haven't thought about it. Would have to research and study it. Flash crashes do happen if there are no bids.
2. There are many examples in this thread. I repeated what they were and they were blown over in favor of new attacking points or holding onto straws.
If you are referring to the guy who says things then says it was only a joke, you could start reading backwards in the archives, specifically when he chooses to speak to or about me. The comments are full of hatred (for what I'll never know) and incendiary comments. He has twisted my words and lied about me many times.

Cheers!

[Jonflyfish]

Additionally, I see no need to continue here. Others will have the final word.
Cheers!

[InfleXion]

I can't keep up with this thread. I know I can be wordy but it's just too much time to spend on getting up to speed with squabbles.

I believe my likening of the HKMEx closing to MF Global is valid because they both failed to deliver. Additionally the CME closed the silver market 4 times that same Sunday, so if it is a coincidence it's a pretty big one. To my knowledge the CME has never frozen silver in the last 4 years, but I can't be everywhere all the time either. At the very least there are many cases where volatility was greater than it is now when silver was not frozen. If the true goal is to inhibit volatility, then I give them an F, but I don't believe that is the goal as much as price control.

The metal exchanges experienced record level quarterly physical outflows in Q1 of this year before the smackdowns. Maybe it is presumptuous to say they might be having supply issues at $20 silver (which is less than cost of production), but if they don't yet it's only a matter of time based on the trend. It's not a stretch to think the outflows would have accelerated at $22 silver and $1350 gold if they were already at all time highs with $28 silver and $1600 gold.

I also agree with one of Market Harmony's points about the silver market being too small. As the 2nd most useful industrial commodity in the world that cannot be replaced without added expense in practically all of its applications (as the best light reflector, electrical conductor, and heat conductor) it is laughable that the global silver bullion market is less than $30 billion. Any number of hedge fund managers could buy up the entire market and squeeze it if they wanted to, but they are likely afraid to do so. The point is that silver is far too necessary for technology to command such a tiny market cap. Due to this small size it is very easily moved by big money and thus volatile.

Since price * supply = market cap, the market cap is undersized on both fronts. If the price is suppressed then supply gets snatched up more quickly by bargain hunters, and the market cap drops as hoarders remove it from the the open market. As the market cap drops the price can be more easily influenced, and as the price drops the market cap drops further, and thus becomes more easy to influence. It's a vicious cycle. If the laws of supply and demand were allowed to do their job the market cap should be a lot higher.

[silver]

Ray, do you see all the trouble you caused starting this thread?
ED

[johnbrickner]

Apologies to Ray, this thread went off track long ago.

Here, all we have are our words. They should mean something.

Cheers!

We also have our behavior when we do deals and in response to the words other members post. And really, it's all we really do have here between each other. Our character, our personalities, our honor, all based on the above. The perception of the above by other members molds their opinions of each and every one of us of who they think we are.

Choose your words carefully. Treat the other members respectably and in a manner they want to be treated. And perhaps more importantly, act with honor.

[natsb88]

It's hard to take somebody seriously when they are one of the worst offenders of the behavior they are continually condemning. Did you do any organized debating in high school or college? Nobody wins a debate by standing up and repeatedly calling the other guy "a liar" and questioning his character. You win a debate by presenting a better argument and backing it up with more compelling evidence than the opposition. And in an informal discussion like this, there doesn't even need to be a "winner." The discussion is for the sake of discussion. Your conjuring of ulterior motives for anybody who disagrees with your opinion is more damaging to your own reputation than to the targets of your attacks, and when you do raise valid points, they get completely lost in your sea of insults.

For one, I am not here to debate but I will defend myself. I am not here to win anything. I came to this forum to offer musings like anyone else. If I have some additional information about a topic than some others, some might see that as adding value to the forum. Some may not. Doesn't sway me one way or the other. When someone disagrees, that's fine. If I support my comments with certain knowledge in certain areas where the person in disagreement obviously doesn't have that experience or background, so what.

When someone is attacking me and blatantly lying in order to discredit, I will stand and defend against such low moral behavior. And when they simply fabricate lies (not misunderstandings or accidentally miss stating something) to mislead people I will question their character and intent. Here, all we have are our words. They should mean something. If people write suicidal soliloquies, talking about drug and alcohol abuse, queers etc then later, after many folks were genuinely concerned because they read what they read and took it to be truth, then later the character who wrote the post says something to the tune of "Just kidding. It was a joke- sorry", that isn't anything but sick. That same person has used this forum as a stage to try and out duel others with the "been there done that so I know more" mantra, while talking down in dogmatic pontifications to appear more accomplished or whatever the motive, I don't know. He has taken the time to lash out and say numerous imaginary and provocative insults and rants in efforts to smear my character. After he has done so, I have engaged to defend myself against his cry for attention. Later he apologizes, sometimes at length, rinse, repeat.
Quite frankly, none of his prior stories can be viewed as anything but tall tales of fantasy after what he has done.

You can defend him though. That's your choice. I know the efforts he has exerted to offend me in the past. He instigated them. My defense may not have been as polite as some but it wasn't I who made up the stories and name calling, offensive and fictitious suggestions etc ( wide-eyed bimbo at the bar etc)

Yes my reactions to others who make it a point to attack and insult me can be very direct. They have started the jib jab, I have not. Once they have done this, like the case of the grand story teller, I know they'll do it again and they have already established themselves, so being polite to someone of that character isn't something I have time or care for.

Cheers!

You are talking about one person and a completely different thread. That's not what my comment was based on and I'm not defending or condemning that incident; I haven't read through it all and don't plan to. I am referencing the half dozen or so people in THIS thread that you have dismissed as liars and trolls and accused of having an agenda because they voiced observations and opinions that differed from yours. Your personal spat with one member is no excuse for the sour attitude you have greeted others with. If there are differences in our perspectives and observations, which surely there will be since we all come from different backgrounds and experiences, it is productive for everybody to diagnose them and learn from each other. Quite frankly I have found that anybody repeatedly touting themselves as "neutral and unbiased" is unlikely to be either, but even so I am open to hearing their perspective. It doesn't mean I'm going to agree with it or change my mind, but it's healthy to entertain it. Somehow this conversation, like the last one, has degraded from casual musings to repetitive bickering. Yes, there have been some personal attacks, but much of what you have twisted into being attacks on your character were really just musings that didn't align with your views (at least that's how I read them). The defensiveness and outbursts have done nothing but clog up the conversation, and most of the valid questions raised about the points you have made still go unanswered.

I also agree with one of Market Harmony's points about the silver market being too small. As the 2nd most useful industrial commodity in the world that cannot be replaced without added expense in practically all of its applications (as the best light reflector, electrical conductor, and heat conductor) it is laughable that the global silver bullion market is less than $30 billion. Any number of hedge fund managers could buy up the entire market and squeeze it if they wanted to, but they are likely afraid to do so. The point is that silver is far too necessary for technology to command such a tiny market cap. Due to this small size it is very easily moved by big money and thus volatile.

Now we're getting back to substantive content

I don't know if the pool is too small or the players are too big, but either way it results in a relatively small number of participants being able to generate very large waves (which seem to bounce smaller players right out of the pool). Intentional or not the volatility of the paper markets affects producers and industrial users significantly, and often adversely. Tends to be painful for physical "investors" too though they account for a relatively small part of the overall silver market.

I wonder what the effect would be of limiting the number of contracts to the actual physical inventory. Would it shrink the market and compound the problem? Or would it cut down on the high-volume speculation that is at least partially responsible for the swings? If somebody wants to buy/short more contracts than the warehouse has inventory to support, and you force them to show up with a truckload of silver to add to the pile in order to issue those new contracts, it would have to change how the game is played. The price discovery function of the paper market would surely be more reflective of actual physical supply and demand if the ratio was 1:1 and COMEX didn't have the option to settle in cash, no? (The contract holder could still opt to cash settle, but it would be at their discretion, not as an out for COMEX to avoid defaulting on delivery).

[InfleXion]

I wonder what the effect would be of limiting the number of contracts to the actual physical inventory. Would it shrink the market and compound the problem? Or would it cut down on the high-volume speculation that is at least partially responsible for the swings? If somebody wants to buy/short more contracts than the warehouse has inventory to support, and you force them to show up with a truckload of silver to add to the pile in order to issue those new contracts, it would have to change how the game is played. The price discovery function of the paper market would surely be more reflective of actual physical supply and demand if the ratio was 1:1 and COMEX didn't have the option to settle in cash, no? (The contract holder could still opt to cash settle, but it would be at their discretion, not as an out for COMEX to avoid defaulting on delivery).

The way I see it (through my colored lense of choice) is that the real price is diminished by a paper market which increases supply artificially with non-100% metal backed proxies that also undermine and divert away from physical demand thus creating a double whammy of downside pressure. From here the paper price is skewed in either direction by the ability to buy on margin.

I consider the downside caused by the proxy diversion to be far greater than any speculative upside from margin, which in all likelihood is additional downside pressure anyway, but we can never know for certain since supposedly the long positions are held off the books for clients or physical inventory, and the shorts are just to hedge. So even though it appears the short position is massive the status quo is that it's just an offset, if any of us truly believe naked shorting does not occur in these markets.

Without margin the open interest should shrink as the speculators find greener pastures, but depending on the long and short of it the price could still go either way. If the exchanges also had to have 100% metal backing and could not settle in cash then that should expand the market cap as they would then have to pay any premiums on physical instead of the spot price to maintain inventory levels, and then we would be on the road to fair value. The drawback being that another Hunt Bros type scenario would open up, but if cornering a market is the only way to stop somebody from cornering the market isn't that self defeating?

[Engineer]

You accuse me of having no moral character, and I take offense to those words. If you'd like to back them up, I'll be happy to meet you in the Dells to "discuss" our issues in person. Just let me know the time that works for you, and I'll arrange my schedule to suit.

You simply flat out lie. You continue to blatantly lie then change the subject by lying even more without any accountability.
Oh, and I made edits at the time of posting after noticing simple typos but you carry on with the story telling. The unaccountable faceless lies, surmising falsehoods, and twisting and contorting words in effort to besmirch and gain favor is astounding by you.
And look- this is all an attack on what I supposedly said or believe. You are attacking me yet when I call out your blatant lies and misrepresentation you twist and squirm into some other attack filled narrative. Attack attack attack and yet you seem immune to being accountable for your own actions. There is no morale character in that.

Cheers!

I would love some accountability, Mr. A******. I took the time this morning to look through some of your posts over the years, and you've complained about others trolling you while flaming them for years. What I posted above was fact, gleaned from your own words, and you have the gall to deny them while crying that I'm lying and attacking you.

If I choose to attack, I won't hide behind a screen name to do so. I'll do it directly...by bringing Mr. A****** up to speed on your antics, and pointing out that you may pose a liability issue to *******. If you're absolutely sure that you haven't acted in a way which would embarrass your employer, feel free to keep pushing my buttons.

[scyther]

You accuse me of having no moral character, and I take offense to those words. If you'd like to back them up, I'll be happy to meet you in the Dells to "discuss" our issues in person. Just let me know the time that works for you, and I'll arrange my schedule to suit.

You simply flat out lie. You continue to blatantly lie then change the subject by lying even more without any accountability.
Oh, and I made edits at the time of posting after noticing simple typos but you carry on with the story telling. The unaccountable faceless lies, surmising falsehoods, and twisting and contorting words in effort to besmirch and gain favor is astounding by you.
And look- this is all an attack on what I supposedly said or believe. You are attacking me yet when I call out your blatant lies and misrepresentation you twist and squirm into some other attack filled narrative. Attack attack attack and yet you seem immune to being accountable for your own actions. There is no morale character in that.

Cheers!

I would love some accountability, Mr. A******. I took the time this morning to look through some of your posts over the years, and you've complained about others trolling you while flaming them for years. What I posted above was fact, gleaned from your own words, and you have the gall to deny them while crying that I'm lying and attacking you.

If I choose to attack, I won't hide behind a screen name to do so. I'll do it directly...by bringing Mr. A****** up to speed on your antics, and pointing out that you may pose a liability issue to *******. If you're absolutely sure that you haven't acted in a way which would embarrass your employer, feel free to keep pushing my buttons.

Wait, you know who JFF is in real life? Oh, I think I'll start looking through his old posts too now...

[ThePowersThatBe]

Do not disclose any personal information about someone that they have not revealed themselves in their profile or posts. Posting personal information in public view is against forum rules.