what if silver dropped to....

[Treetop]

Im curious about something. I dont buy it at all, but Ive heard a few claim the run up in PMs is over. As I see it all the reasons that lead me to buy into metals are still in place and even worse now. that is another thread though. Lets pretend that the run up over the last decade or so truly is over and we will head down from here to find a bottom well under 10. Also pretend we somehow figured a way around most of the issues that lead most of us to metals in the first place and even most on a site such as this also believed we wouldnt be seeing much higher prices anytime soon.

would you still be a buyer? I dont ask this because I think such a thing is likely or even possible. I ask just for perspective and curiosity. I know a few here were still buyers after the rise and fall from the hunt brothers. Curious how many of us would do likewise.

My answer is I would still be a buyer.

[68Camaro]

I presume you mean that the lull in the run-up is substantial and extended - maybe years rather than months or weeks. (It's not impossible, though I believe if it happens it will not last longer than 2-3 years.) I caveat that as I don't think there is anyone here that believes the long-term trend is not up - depending on your time scale.

I guess my actual answer will be what I actually do with my money, and that will be interesting to see even for me. I tend to believe that I will not stop buying PMs - if I believed in gold at 1700 and silver at 40, why not believe in it even more so at gold 1100 and silver 10. I'm not in PMs because of any bubble. I'm in PMs because fiat is dead and just doesn't know it yet, and I don't want to keep any more resources than absolutely necessary in either a paper market or cash or anything denominated in the USD.

BTW, of course we're going to hear that PMs are dead. There are a number of people that want PMs to be dead, for a diverse number of reasons, so they are trumpeting the stagnation and crush of the past two years. You have to have conviction in what you believe in; for me this is just a short lull in the long-term trend.

[Treetop]

I agree with you 68, this is just a hypothetical. Like what if I won 560 million lottery type thing. Chances of that are very near zero, but its interesting to imagine.

In this case Im wondering who would buy if magically the issues driving it up the last few years were resolved even in the minds and hearts of people like those of us on forums like this. To the point we all knew it wasnt likely to rise to much for many many years after a sharp decline from current prices.

[SilverDragon72]

I presume you mean that the lull in the run-up is substantial and extended - maybe years rather than months or weeks. (It's not impossible, though I believe if it happens it will not last longer than 2-3 years.) I caveat that as I don't think there is anyone here that believes the long-term trend is not up - depending on your time scale.

I guess my actual answer will be what I actually do with my money, and that will be interesting to see even for me. I tend to believe that I will not stop buying PMs - if I believed in gold at 1700 and silver at 40, why not believe in it even more so at gold 1100 and silver 10. I'm not in PMs because of any bubble. I'm in PMs because fiat is dead and just doesn't know it yet, and I don't want to keep any more resources than absolutely necessary in either a paper market or cash or anything denominated in the USD.

BTW, of course we're going to hear that PMs are dead. There are a number of people that want PMs to be dead, for a diverse number of reasons, so they are trumpeting the stagnation and crush of the past two years. You have to have conviction in what you believe in; for me this is just a short lull in the long-term trend.

I will continue to stack PM's for as long as I'm able to. Fiat may not be dead right now, but I believe that it will fail one day in the near future. It's only a matter of time.

[Treetop]

Id be shocked if fiat didnt die or get re structured drastically in my life, but that isnt what I intended the thread to be about. This is a thread wondering who would still be a buyer IF magically all those issues were solved. Who would still be a buyer? I would.

[Kurr]

Even without the fiat relationship in play, if it were all resolved in the best way possible I would still be a buyer because silver and gold still hold unique industrial uses that cannot be replicated with another element, and it seems usage will/has/coninue to outrun production (out of ground) for a veeery long time.

Basically I see demand rising in relation to supply, correlating to a steady rise in value.

[ZenOps]

Thing is.

Its hard to know exactly how much real metal there is out there. Did Khadafi really have a personal fortune of 144 tons of gold? Is the per capita holding of a citizen in Canada really 0.1 grams?

All I know is that there was plenty of silver in the US in 1964. If the mintages are to be believed, about 10 ounces in circulated coin form per person (taken from mintage statistics and population at the time) Bear markets are rough, and its usually good advice not to fight the bears.

[InfleXion]

I'm a buyer at any price until such time as metal is back in its rightful place as the valuation method instead of fiat.

[68Camaro]

Id be shocked if fiat didnt die or get re structured drastically in my life, but that isnt what I intended the thread to be about. This is a thread wondering who would still be a buyer IF magically all those issues were solved. Who would still be a buyer? I would.

If all the "issues" were magically solved, then 1) dollars (or whatever the currency is) would be properly backed and couldn't be created at will without the necessary backing, and PMs would then become effectively money, and 2) PMs would be ensured to be at their true supply and demand price and based on what that was then then I would make an informed decision at that time as to if this was the best investment to make at the time, out of all possible investments, but 3) given 1 and 2 it wouldn't really make sense to "invest" in "money" using money. So, given 1, 2, and 3 - I would only hold as physical what I thought I needed to ensure passage through a minor crisis - probably 10-20% of my investments.

[SoFa]

I would buy because I like it. That other stuff about fiat and whatnot has not been a large factor in my stacking anyways. Frankly, I have no expertise in world monetary policies, banksters, mining, or anything else related to PMs.

[inflationhawk]

It cracks me up when people think the only option to fiat money is gold or silver or metals in general. Investments in companies that produce goods and services can be just as valuable if not more so, even if the investments are made in fiat currency and the goods and services are sold in fiat currency. The goal is to not just be sitting on fiat currency beyond what you need for the near term.

[neilgin1]

Im curious about something. I dont buy it at all, but Ive heard a few claim the run up in PMs is over. As I see it all the reasons that lead me to buy into metals are still in place and even worse now. that is another thread though. Lets pretend that the run up over the last decade or so truly is over and we will head down from here to find a bottom well under 10. Also pretend we somehow figured a way around most of the issues that lead most of us to metals in the first place and even most on a site such as this also believed we wouldnt be seeing much higher prices anytime soon.

would you still be a buyer? I dont ask this because I think such a thing is likely or even possible. I ask just for perspective and curiosity. I know a few here were still buyers after the rise and fall from the hunt brothers. Curious how many of us would do likewise.

My answer is I would still be a buyer.

oh yeh, we're bottoming. This market is not just a bull market, its the leading indicator of a paradigm shift.

Not the 'end of the world", just "hard times", and since its happening to spoiled brats, who have a bad day if their iPhone breaks, it'll SEEM like the end of the world.

silver's bottoming now, look at the open interest. the momo's aren't adding in the low 22 area...they're busy preparing liferafts the moment somebody decides to punish gold shorts.

hard times? we'll see what this country is made of then.

[68Camaro]

...The goal is to not just be sitting on fiat currency beyond what you need for the near term.

My concern is not just fiat. I'm concerned about paper markets period. I'm fine with investing in a company you believe in, but if I do so going forward I want to actually possess the stock certificates, not to have an electronic account somewhere subject to counterparty risk. So the pollyanna view of this thread would have to include the presumption that all problems in the finanical markets have been solved. I don't know where we stop with these assumptions - at some point this path becomes pure fantasy that doesn't entertain me at all. Because the paper markets have proven they are untrustworthy my goal is to have minimal exposure to paper investments period. It is still possible - though painful - to actually possess physical stock certificates. If you're going to own stock, get the certificates. There is an older thread here somewhere that describes how to do that.

[inflationhawk]

There's definitely added cost and lost flexibility when it comes time to sell, but if it assuages your paranoia (which may prove to be grounded) about the electronic world then more power. The added cost and lost flexibility are worth it if you otherwise wouldn't invest in the company. I guess I haven't gotten jaded to the point yet where I would require "ordering out", but maybe that's next.

[wheeler_dealer]

Precious metals are just another avenue available to direct excess FRN's. A careful long term financial plan should include some diversification. Once an insurance position is secured (if its value went to zero tomorrow would your life change ) then evaluate where and how much you could safely buy and sleep at night. I practice the 10% rule (10% of my monthly pay goes into some form of p.m.'s even sorting change). Any extra is diversified out of p.M's. Ex. Food, household supplies, tangibles. Utility stocks are also security.
So YES keep dollar cost averaging. I am.

[inflationhawk]

That's a great post and sounds like an awesome strategy to me.

[shinnosuke]

...The goal is to not just be sitting on fiat currency beyond what you need for the near term.

My concern is not just fiat. I'm concerned about paper markets period. I'm fine with investing in a company you believe in, but if I do so going forward I want to actually possess the stock certificates, not to have an electronic account somewhere subject to counterparty risk. So the pollyanna view of this thread would have to include the presumption that all problems in the finanical markets have been solved. I don't know where we stop with these assumptions - at some point this path becomes pure fantasy that doesn't entertain me at all. Because the paper markets have proven they are untrustworthy my goal is to have minimal exposure to paper investments period. It is still possible - though painful - to actually possess physical stock certificates. If you're going to own stock, get the certificates. There is an older thread here somewhere that describes how to do that.

The point is, beyond family, a few friends, and physical possession, there are few things that can be trusted in this world. For example, have you heard about why the newly established Hong Kong Exchange cratered? Good article: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-05-2 ... r-arrested

Personally, I would own metals no matter how low they go.

[Engineer]

Personally, I would own metals no matter how low they go.

+1

"If" everything was fixed and we had a new fiat currency without all the problems, it would probably be a good idea to bet on that for a while...but until that point, things I can physically touch seem like a better bet.

[ZenOps]

Technically, Iron did better as an inflation hedge than the precious metals.

Iron being $13 per ton in 2002, and peaked out at $180 per ton in 2010.

[Treetop]

- at some point this path becomes pure fantasy that doesn't entertain me at all.

This was all about fantasy. Its a what if things WERE different would you still be a metals owner. lighten up man!

[68Camaro]

Here's a fantasy - gold inexplicably drops to $1/oz but for someone no one else wants it, until I buy all that I can, then suddenly the value is realized by everyone and price soars to $10,000 oz - now that's a fantasy!

[shinnosuke]

Here's a fantasy - gold inexplicably drops to $1/oz but for someone no one else wants it, until I buy all that I can, then suddenly the value is realized by everyone and price soars to $10,000 oz - now that's a fantasy!

Do you have any room left in that dream castle of yours?