Do you believe the Dollar?

[neilgin1]

Hey gang......everyday, maybe twice a day, I give a long lean look thru the entire listing of futures, from stock indices, grains, metals, meats, softs and currencies.

for about a year, I've been focusing on three currencies, the dollar, euro and yen....and in the last two, maybe three weeks, there seems to have a SHIFT.

I thought the euro and yen were headed into the DEPTHS, while the dollar would maintain in the 84-85 area, but the EXACT OPPOSITE seems to have taken place. we have unusual strength NOW, both in the Yen, 105....and the Euro, 133-134....while I just looked and the Dollar is hanging right above 80!!!...to be precise 80.73 as I type.

I don't have the ability to post charts up, but just on a tech basis....what do you think?....it seems to me, we are in danger of going back below 80 in the dollar, in your opinions, could this be possible?

I do KNOW, that 72 is THE MAJOR support in the Dollar...I was told that if we trade below 72 in the Dollar, our collective ride will get very very rocky.....that's what I was reading when I was still reading Survival Blog, which I don't really visit that much anymore.

so a couple questions, could somebody post a daily and weekly bar chart, with a Moving Average overlay?.......and, what WOULD happen to the price of silver, if we did trade below 72...or at the very least , go back into a period of dollar weakening?

can they REALLY sit on silver futures, if we have a down trending dollar?....that doesn't seem possible, what do you think?

[barrytrot]

I'm curious, Neil: Why do you care? You have said many times:

a- The game is rigged
b- You are completely out of the game


What does it matter? I'm serious. How does it impact you (and by corollary others)?

[SoFa]

The dollar is in middle of the range it's been for the past year or longer.

[InfleXion]

I don't believe the dollar index means anything to the price of silver. It is roughly 60% weighted in the Euro. It is not a measure of purchasing power. It is a measure of currency vs. currency. IMO any inverse moves in metal are the result of other forces, aka market makers.

Also, it wouldn't be much of a race to the bottom if we left EU and JP in the dust. They are never going to let one horse get too far ahead or too far behind because their fates are intertwined. They're all headed for the glue factory but in the meantime they're going to keep them all running for as long as possible.

They have the dollar swap lines and banking interconnectivity via the SWIFT system to ensure that money flows as needed to keep everything even keel. This information need not be disclosed to us peasants by our overlords, but occaisonally it does leak out into the public domain after while.

So no, I don't believe the dollar, and I don't put any weight on technical analysis based on phony numbers that are derived from other phony numbers.

Gold would ordinariliy be the true measure of purchasing power of the dollar, but since that has been supplanted by the metal exchanges we now have no real indicator of purchasing power other than maybe the food index.

[IdahoCopper]

There is the Big Mac index .........

http://www.economist.com/content/big-mac-index

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Mac_Index

http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/breakout ... 17207.html

[johnbrickner]

There is the Big Mac index .........

IMHO

One of the best indicators of inflation or value international mega-corporations can give us.

I thought the euro and yen were headed into the DEPTHS, while the dollar would maintain in the 84-85 area, but the EXACT OPPOSITE seems to have taken place. we have unusual strength NOW, both in the Yen, 105....and the Euro, 133-134....while I just looked and the Dollar is hanging right above 80!!!...to be precise 80.73 as I type.

Dollar tanking? Whenever I see the dollar lose value I think "about time it moved to it's true place". But, unless it does a MAJOR tank it's just part of the race to the bottom strategy. When we (the U.S. or us) create a bunch of U$D out of nothing and the value goes down we wait for other parts of the world to go to Shat and cause a move to safety & security in the U$D. This demand causes an increase in the value and sets us up to devalue again. So long as our (the U.S. or us) actions cause problems in other parts of the world and the rest of the world seeks safety & security in the U$D we'll keep behaving in the same manner.

For me, the watch for is when the rest of the world seeks safety somewhere else. The where, what, and when that will be is what I'm watching for.

It's a jungle out there,

[neilgin1]

I'm curious, Neil: Why do you care? You have said many times:

a- The game is rigged
b- You are completely out of the game


What does it matter? I'm serious. How does it impact you (and by corollary others)?

Barry....good morning, its 0245, just waking up...getting the cobwebs out, black coffee, and the world is quiet.

you are right, I view the game is rigged and I am small.....BUT, I wont be caught unawares, even in my powerlessness. for four years now, maybe a little more, I HAVE been watching that 72 support line in the Dollar.....almost like a tachometer on an engine. Hence YOU, for instance, trade a lot of paper instruments, that's why I posed the question....you're in the trenches....what do you see?

on a personal note, you aint sore with me, are you?....I always viewed YOU as true, and authentic...still do...that's why I view feedback from you as worthy of consideration.

how it impacts me?...greatly. i'm exceedingly nervous on this level.....if the wheels come off, OR they get to wobbling BAD....we could/might/maybe have some sort of extraordinary banking/equities event....and to that end, I no longer make ANY purchases of a frivolous nature, know what I mean?

but like I said, on a personal note, I do detect you MIGHT be sore with me, and sure hope that aint the case. Coz you are Barry, not this guy or that guy.

you got any market intel you care to share?...or do you think I been "out of line" in anyway? i'm NOT an unreasonable "troll" seeking bad fellowship...I DO hope you know that, respectfully, neil

[neilgin1]

I don't believe the dollar index means anything to the price of silver. It is roughly 60% weighted in the Euro. It is not a measure of purchasing power. It is a measure of currency vs. currency. IMO any inverse moves in metal are the result of other forces, aka market makers.

Also, it wouldn't be much of a race to the bottom if we left EU and JP in the dust. They are never going to let one horse get too far ahead or too far behind because their fates are intertwined. They're all headed for the glue factory but in the meantime they're going to keep them all running for as long as possible.

They have the dollar swap lines and banking interconnectivity via the SWIFT system to ensure that money flows as needed to keep everything even keel. This information need not be disclosed to us peasants by our overlords, but occaisonally it does leak out into the public domain after while.

So no, I don't believe the dollar, and I don't put any weight on technical analysis based on phony numbers that are derived from other phony numbers.

Gold would ordinariliy be the true measure of purchasing power of the dollar, but since that has been supplanted by the metal exchanges we now have no real indicator of purchasing power other than maybe the food index.

oh no....so in other words....we are........eff'ed?....whats the work around then?...if any?

[neilgin1]

There is the Big Mac index .........

http://www.economist.com/content/big-mac-index

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Mac_Index

http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/breakout ... 17207.html

I like that........trying to wrap my pea brain around that......

off business...how you doing?....you taking care of business?....again, as I type this, my thoughts and prayers to you and your family. I sure hope and pray you're heart is being comforted by our Lord, and God, with the comfort that transcends all understanding, God love you Idaho, neil

[neilgin1]

Dollar tanking? Whenever I see the dollar lose value I think "about time it moved to it's true place". But, unless it does a MAJOR tank it's just part of the race to the bottom strategy. When we (the U.S. or us) create a bunch of U$D out of nothing and the value goes down we wait for other parts of the world to go to Shat and cause a move to safety & security in the U$D. This demand causes an increase in the value and sets us up to devalue again. So long as our (the U.S. or us) actions cause problems in other parts of the world and the rest of the world seeks safety & security in the U$D we'll keep behaving in the same manner.

For me, the watch for is when the rest of the world seeks safety somewhere else. The where, what, and when that will be is what I'm watching for.

It's a jungle out there,

reel back to the Lehman moment .....in late 2008...remember "TARP"?...I remember talking with some old trading friends, and we were all aghast over TARP...our thoughts were, that we should did like Oct of 87...which is NO BAILOUTS...just let the markets trade out of it!....could the Dow have gone to 3,000?....darn right it could have, but we would have been better off this very day...I think back in the crash of 87, we went down to 1200 Dow, BUT, that was the bottom!....and now we got this too big to fail deal.....and that isn't capitalism!....it made things worse....TARPS and QE's...its terrible...I gotta go make more coffee.

[Engineer]

TARPS and QE's...its terrible...I gotta go make more coffee.

Whenever the beard is speaking, it helps to add a shot of Jameson, a bit of chocolate syrup, and a dash of milk.

[neilgin1]

TARPS and QE's...its terrible...I gotta go make more coffee.

Whenever the beard is speaking, it helps to add a shot of Jameson, a bit of chocolate syrup, and a dash of milk.

M....The Beard..oh that man looks like somebody I seen in one of my nightmares....we're being led by a bunch of small grey men...this is terrible.

name me ONE leader you respect....i'm trying to think of ONE current leader I respect....and come up with ZERO....okay more coffee, and all I got is Barbados Rum, and a hundred miles R/t to drive at 0800.....so, I better not....

[Engineer]

The Beard..oh that man looks like somebody I seen in one of my nightmares....we're being led by a bunch of small grey men...this is terrible.

name me ONE leader you respect....i'm trying to think of ONE current leader I respect....and come up with ZERO....okay more coffee, and all I got is Barbados Rum, and a hundred miles R/t to drive at 0800.....so, I better not....

I can't think of any of our representatives I respect, much less find a leader among the bunch.

Rum is no good for the morning, especially if you need to drive. Another day, though...a bloody Mary made with Tito's vodka and fresh local horseradish could be a nice change of pace. A few of those could even make Turbo Timmy tolerable.

Which reminds me, I need to get some horseradish started this year.

[neilgin1]

Which reminds me, I need to get some horseradish started this year.

NEVER a bad idea!!,,,,Horseradish is a gift from God....as far as the firewater goes M.........yee gads, brother, I can have one, maybe two bottles of sipping likker around for company and THAT IS IT!

liquor and me?...oohhh......I must have native American in my blood, coz when I get likkered up?....things have a tendency to catch fire or blow up, so I never drink alone, and I never go past two shots straight up....and I stay away from the gas/diesel shed.

that reminds me, I got to fill up one Jerrycan with 91 Oct, and the other with diesel.....put that on my list....now, i'm going to finally look at the dollar, where she traded.

I wonder if anybody took my advice to buy Dec 13 hard red spring wheat at 20 cents over the Dec 13 KC hard red winter wheat...I DO believe the Dec spring wheat is trading 55-60 cents over the Dec KC winter wheat...that's nothing to sneeze at......forty cents profit on a wheat spread?....that's 2k in profit PER CAR, and if you had 10 cars on?....that's your monster box!!!!! i'm going to go look. n.

(later add/edit.....0440 hours, Minn Dec 13 Spring Wheat trading 55 cents over KC Dec 13 Winter Wheat....also keep your eye on this......watch July14 Corn against Dec14 Corn....July is trading 10 cents over....okay, two scenarios...lets say we grow 13 bln bushels this year....July 14 Corn will trade 40 cents UNDER Dec 14 corn...so if you sell the spread, that's 50 cents profit a car....$2500 a car...times 10?....25k...BUT, lets say, due to late planting, we grow under 13 bln bushels of corn...we go the opposite direction, and you'll trade July14 corn 40-50 cents OVER Dec 14 Corn....THAT would also be roughly 40 cents a car profit.....$2,000 a car......this is a good time to watch the charts on this spread...if we trade July 14 Corn EVEN money with Dec 14 corn...the market is "telling" you we grow 13 bln bushels PLUS, but if we make a new HIGH in the spread.....which is July 14 Corn 15 cents OVER Dec 14 corn...it means guys didn't get their corn in on time....this spread is a risky, but GREAT way to trade corn......not a trade recco....you can just watch it. to get acclimated to grain spreading, which is a hidden art form.)

[68Camaro]

The dollar at 72 is a guardrail, a warning sign. I tend to believe like Inflexion that - to the extent they can control (and they can), within some variation that only though know the tolerable extent of - they will work to steer the major currencies in the indices together. They will all go down with the ship together - at least for a time. That said, in the event of a black swan (maybe not black, but we just don't know which of the many possible black swans will dominate) if we see the dollar abandoned by the rest of the rats jumping out the portholes (and 72 will be a sign of that) - that will be a key sign.

[neilgin1]

The dollar at 72 is a guardrail, a warning sign. I tend to believe like Inflexion that - to the extent they can control (and they can), within some variation that only though know the tolerable extent of - they will work to steer the major currencies in the indices together. They will all go down with the ship together - at least for a time. That said, in the event of a black swan (maybe not black, but we just don't know which of the many possible black swans will dominate) if we see the dollar abandoned by the rest of the rats jumping out the portholes (and 72 will be a sign of that) - that will be a key sign.

wise words.

[barrytrot]

I'm curious, Neil: Why do you care? You have said many times:

a- The game is rigged
b- You are completely out of the game


What does it matter? I'm serious. How does it impact you (and by corollary others)?

Barry....good morning, its 0245, just waking up...getting the cobwebs out, black coffee, and the world is quiet.

you are right, I view the game is rigged and I am small.....BUT, I wont be caught unawares, even in my powerlessness. for four years now, maybe a little more, I HAVE been watching that 72 support line in the Dollar.....almost like a tachometer on an engine. Hence YOU, for instance, trade a lot of paper instruments, that's why I posed the question....you're in the trenches....what do you see?

on a personal note, you aint sore with me, are you?....I always viewed YOU as true, and authentic...still do...that's why I view feedback from you as worthy of consideration.

how it impacts me?...greatly. i'm exceedingly nervous on this level.....if the wheels come off, OR they get to wobbling BAD....we could/might/maybe have some sort of extraordinary banking/equities event....and to that end, I no longer make ANY purchases of a frivolous nature, know what I mean?

but like I said, on a personal note, I do detect you MIGHT be sore with me, and sure hope that aint the case. Coz you are Barry, not this guy or that guy.

you got any market intel you care to share?...or do you think I been "out of line" in anyway? i'm NOT an unreasonable "troll" seeking bad fellowship...I DO hope you know that, respectfully, neil

No I'm not "sore with you". The question was legitimate. I was truly interested in "why you cared". Thanks for answering.

My "intel" - none.

In fact, most of my accounts are pure cash right now. The only accounts with any non-cash are the ones where I had silver at around $29 and am sitting on those patiently writing options way out so I can make a tiny profit.

I just don't see anything where my capital isn't at extreme risk. And when I invest my one and only philosophy is PRESERVE CAPITAL.

I'm normally a near perma-bull but right now I'm sitting on the sidelines because nothing strikes me as capital-safe. Silver/gold - normally very capital-safe and long term should be very good, but short term (1-2 years even) don't look very safe. Other equities that I used to like have almost all increased their P/E ratios for no particular reason. And the ones that haven't increased their P/E just don't look as great as they used to.

Even in 2008 right before the huge drop I had a LOT of faith in a couple companies and I was spot on. Of course I was buried deep for several months, but they rebounded and then some.

But this time I just don't see a company that I want to go long with and silver/gold are still teetering like they want to dive rather than stay level or increase.

[neilgin1]

Barry, you know what company I ALWAYS "like", and I'm lobbying my son to get into their summer internship?

Cargill.

I THINK they're privately held....but I like they're corporate culture....the ice does get cracked in a very fine book entitled "The Merchants of Grain"....a wonderful classic read on the trade of grain....you'd enjoy it. glad to hear you and I are good, neil

[InfleXion]

I don't believe the dollar index means anything to the price of silver. It is roughly 60% weighted in the Euro. It is not a measure of purchasing power. It is a measure of currency vs. currency. IMO any inverse moves in metal are the result of other forces, aka market makers.

Also, it wouldn't be much of a race to the bottom if we left EU and JP in the dust. They are never going to let one horse get too far ahead or too far behind because their fates are intertwined. They're all headed for the glue factory but in the meantime they're going to keep them all running for as long as possible.

They have the dollar swap lines and banking interconnectivity via the SWIFT system to ensure that money flows as needed to keep everything even keel. This information need not be disclosed to us peasants by our overlords, but occaisonally it does leak out into the public domain after while.

So no, I don't believe the dollar, and I don't put any weight on technical analysis based on phony numbers that are derived from other phony numbers.

Gold would ordinariliy be the true measure of purchasing power of the dollar, but since that has been supplanted by the metal exchanges we now have no real indicator of purchasing power other than maybe the food index.

oh no....so in other words....we are........eff'ed?....whats the work around then?...if any?

I wouldn't say that. The way I see it is that we are in limbo. Nobody can say for sure what the reality is, but we all have a pretty good idea of what direction we need to go to get there. Getting there will not be fun or easy, but it doesn't have to be crazy either. The way I see it this will drag on for as long as possible, after which gold and silver will rise in price accordingly to extinguish all the debt when the current system is no longer sustainable. Alternatively all the debt will be defaulted on, and only holders of non debt-based assets such as gold and silver will emerge with their net worth intact, especially if (and more likely when) metals return to backing our money. I think a lot of people will end up in the poor house and it will take folks like us who are prepared to shoulder their burden for society to thrive in the aftermath, but I don't think we are heading for a Mad Max type scenario.

[Country]

Dollar Strong Today!

Bernanke Says Fed on Course to End Asset Purchases in 2014

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-06-19/fed-keeps-85-billion-pace-of-bond-buying-sees-risks-waning.html

[InfleXion]

Dollar Strong Today!

Bernanke Says Fed on Course to End Asset Purchases in 2014

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-06-19/fed-keeps-85-billion-pace-of-bond-buying-sees-risks-waning.html

A promise from a (sort of) politician to do something in the future? I'll believe it when I see it If they do stick to their guns on this one I would not want to be in stocks or bonds which are totally propped up right now by QE. I wouldn't be surprised if the intended goal is to let them deflate enough so that further injections can be more easily justified. Public relations are important, and they won't have blessing for QEternity if people aren't reminded that it's needed to save their retirement plans.

Additionally, considering that JPM has increased their SLV holdings by 500%, and that the total net short position has been reduced 90% in the past year (40% in the past couple weeks), this could very well just be rhetoric to keep the price down until they have completed adjusting their position to take advantage of rising prices.

[Country]

10 year treasury says that they will end QE soon. Interest rates on long term governments are soaring higher.

[InfleXion]

10 year treasury says that they will end QE soon. Interest rates on long term governments are soaring higher.

Agreed and it does seem likely that the insiders believe the Fed will end QE, but that doesn't mean that they can actually do it without killing the so called recovery. It could also be a matter of front running since treasuries began soaring a while before this news.

[Country]

If the FED follows through, we could be in store for a DEFLATIONARY takedown, not unlike 2008-2009. Not just PMs, but everything will be sold for CASH. Perhaps the current takedown in PMs was the precursor of a DEFLATIONARY wave that was only held back by the FED's QEs. Bunker Time!

[AGgressive Metal]

If the FED follows through, we could be in store for a DEFLATIONARY takedown, not unlike 2008-2009. Not just PMs, but everything will be sold for CASH. Perhaps the current takedown in PMs was the precursor of a DEFLATIONARY wave that was only held back by the FED's QEs. Bunker Time!

I worry about that too, Country. But will they really pull QE3? I can't envision the Bernake ever hitting the brakes too hard.