by theo » Wed Apr 09, 2014 12:14 pm
People who trust the Russian Ruble over the U.S. Dollar have incredibly short memories. It is a currency backed by an economy that is overly dependant on resources and issued (and manipulated) by an increasingly corrupt and tyrannical government. And don't forget that the ruble itself collapsed less than a generation ago. The relative strength and dependability of the ruble depends not only on the health of the Russian economy, but also the willingness and ability of the Russian government provide accurate economic data. Do you trust Putin to tell the truth about his economy? The Chinese Yuan has similar credibility problems.
Even considering the current lurch towards socialism in the U.S. and the attendant problems with corruption, we still have one of the most stable and transparent financial systems in the world. That is why as long as fiat currencies have value, the U.S. Dollar will be the reserve currency. One dynamic that continually depresses the prices gold and silver is the occurance of economic crisis around the world (Europe, Argentina. . . probably Japan next) causing a flight to quality back to U.S. debt, allowing us continued benefits from being the best house on a bad block.
The problem is not with the Dollar the Yuan or the Ruble specifically, but with the fiat system as a whole. I think the real shift will happen when a nation or group of nations either begins trading for oil with gold or (in a credible fashion) backs their currency with gold.