Risk Analysis

[beauanderos]

http://cluborlov.blogspot.com/2014/04/business-as-usual.html#more interesting viewpoint of probable scenario of the actual SHTF scenario that will occur

[plus1hdcp]

Interesting read Ray. Makes one think about way in which we, as a people, got into this mess. We do things so much differently than our parents/grandparents did.

Credit cards - the I have to have it now mentality. It took me a long time to learn this lesson and often think of the money/time lost buy unwise use of credit.

Not saving for a rainy day - I always thought I was doing things the right way. Save a percentage of pay into a 401K account, grab the employer matching funds, and watch it grow. Never thought about any government would consider grabbing it from me until the fiasco in Greece. Also, maybe not a bad idea to have started stacking AG/AU at an earlier age. Yea, that would have been wise. Groceries are the same. Perhaps saving some non perishable items would have been wise. They would have been cheaper six months ago and that toilet paper will still be needed.

It's always a delicate balance. One has to live their own life but I wish they didn't expect you or I to bail them out because they failed to prepare. Who knows what the correct thing to do was or currently is.

[68Camaro]

He makes some interesting points - and we shouldn't presume that things will collapse so quickly. A long slow multi-generational collapse is actually the worst-case scenario (we're living that, because we're in the third generation of it right now). However, it's clear from the article that he doesn't understand the flyover country whatsoever, so unless the long slow collapse lasts so many generations that flyover land itself is rendered impotent, I don't see his scenarios playing out universally. As to the speed of this, all unstable systems eventually reach a tipping point where they become unsustainable and a step change occurs. I believe we'll see that within my lifetime.

His conclusion is suspect - as one of the commenters noted, sometimes the evil you know is easier to deal with than the evil you don't now.

[beauanderos]

sometimes the evil you know is easier to deal with than the evil you don't now.

I tend to think a wealthy American settling into a backwater country would quickly become a target. Just thought he did make a few good points, tho. Roving bands of lawless marauders will make short shrift of most people's preps.

[johnbrickner]

Dimitre Orlov: Author of The 5 Stages of Collapse, a book I am still reading. His end statement to all the SHTF stuff currently going on in America is what the voice in the horror movie tells you when you enter the haunted house "Get Out". Leaving America is a subject we have discussed well here at RC and while I have seriously considered it in the past, I no longer rule out staying as from the research I have been doing leads to "Community" as an answer.

This brings me to an interesting observation. Even though Dimitre advocates leaving, the next book he is going to publish (it appears to have several authors) is called Communities that Abide. It looks to be a study about communities that have stood the test of time and are more successful than the community called America. Many prepublished parts of it exist already on the cluborlov site and can be found by googleing "dimitre orlov communities that abide".

More interesting to me is that while my own research has taken me to successful communities, Dimitre has already done it. I'm not one to reinvent the wheel so have prepurchased the book. Advertised as available in June, I'll keep you informed but from what I have read on the cluborlov site it looks to be a keeper.

[TXSTARFIRE]

Was this book published and has anyone read it? Any opinions?

tt

[knibloe]

I will stay here and take my chances. I believe that God will provide if it be His will. If it isn't His will, than it doesn't matter. I have preps stored away, I have diversified (albeit modest) assets, I have land, tools and knowledge. I also have my church and neighbors to help support and be supported by.

[Treetop]

Several things I find unlikely about some of the ideas presented. For one if the Us falls in this way it will take much of the global economy with it. you might not want to be fromm the US in even other nations that historically embrace westerners when the whole world is blaming its problems on the US. I also dont expect roving marauders to last long in the countryside. Around 1/3 of the country is armed the stat is higher in the country. Raiders wont last long when half the homes they attack take some of their members and many wont have much to steal anyway but will still fight. This article also assumes that the plans of the likes of fema do not exist. Who knows if they will be acted on as written but if so it would be much different then this as governments might be roadblocking cities but would also be keeping supply lines for basic items intact if they are able. If it does play out like that then there wouldnt be any ability to enforce things like blocking small business as this suggests. Which would honestly be drastically harder for them to do then it would be to keep open supply lines for basic items because a decent chunk would want them to keep supplies coming almost no one would want them attacking small enterprise during such an event. If the governments main goal is to preserve itself then it has to preserve those who support it. Keeping basic supply lines open ensures this absolutely and anyone disrupting that, few would question the gov putting them down with a vengeance.

Back to leaving the country, if thats what you want go now and never look back. lol. Being more serious though these are global issues and well humans like to lay blame on others. How much of the globe will not also be in major turmoil? which places where things seem peaceful or community oriented perhaps with base agriculture would still be accepting of foreigners when times are tighter for their own?? Also not all but even most third world nations your average person thinks produces their own food well rely on outside inputs to keep levels at current rates. It was many years ago but a forum I used to be on went through about 20 countries that many with this mindset thought were ideal and I showed them how almost all of those do in fact rely on outside inputs. If there are exceptions, Im not aware of them. You also cannot anticipate which previously accepting people learn to hate the ones their media blames for their issues. If you are picking another nation to move to it is worth the time to truly understand how they produce their food, which is trickier then it sounds on the surface. It really is a global market now in most cases. You will want to understand what they do system wide for pests and fertility. You definitely CAN meet these needs outside of current modelS BUT if a decent portion of a system in a given country relies on pesticides and chemical ferts taking those away will be devastating in the short term in the very least. It can take years to get to a place you can replace those things in a balanced way at the homestead level when taking it to larger tracts it can be much longer with more embedded pests to overcome. If the US falls much of the rest of the world does especially other places providing those currently mandatory inputs. It will absolutely be easier should they try to preserve food production here then most of the third world where most would assume it would be easier should things fall apart. We have domestic sources for all these things and can feed ourselves many times over with only mild changes. Few places can do anything close. Meat for instance is a luxury, as are eggs and milk, and producing them industrially is very resource heavy, if we instead used that grain for humans during a crisis we can feed ourselves several times over with only domestic resources with only a need to keep a handful of currently functioning domestic industries working. Meanwhile most of those poorer countries that seem to be closer to the land? almost all of them have large portions that also rely on pesticides and the like and they do not produce them domestically usually or if they do its from bought resources in many cases so when they disappear over night insects will be at plague levels for many crops for atleast a few years. Same is true for modern fertilizers if a system has many relying on this and they cant produce it domestically it will take time for most to provide an alternative and even then production will often take a hit at first. Im honestly not aware of another nation that could feed itself as well as the Us through a crisis besides russia. Russia will be fine unless it gets colder. No doubt there are several I just havent looked at yet but there sure arent many.

[Treetop]

I looked up the guy John mentioned with his suggested search "dimitre orlov communities that abide". Found the guys blog. Honestly I think hes off in la la land. He used a handful of examples ot make the case that communistic principles feed a small society better then individualistic ones. I can only assume he doesnt have much knowledge of historical farming villages and practices to make such a case. You do need community, but if that is intact then individualistic models far and away do better. Few communistic farming communities ever get much past sustenance farming. People do enough that they officially did their part. Division of labor offers many advantages, and this is often blocked in small communistic models because everyone has to spend time in the fields. For some reason he also (inaccurately no less) compares a small communist community to a massive capitalist one. Entirely different animals. Comparing small capitalist communities to small communistic ones is more accurate and almost none of his arguments are even worth addressing once you acknowledge this difference. Because we could instead compare the issues of large capitalist versus large communist (one historically can barely feed itself). But he was talking small communist places which historically ONLY feed themselves whereas small capitalist minded places generally feed themselves with ease with few of the issues of capitalist places he mentions and enough division of labor to ensure more free time for most because overall people produce more. He also seems to forget small capitalist places generally take care of their own and make sure everyone or most has a station in life. 1800s and earlier america highlghts this well. Several examples of both models exist, (I am actually a descendant on one such group the zoarites considered by people who dont know about them to be proof communism works) small capitalist communities won hands down. Used to be in this nation most areas provided a large portion of what they needed and sold excess. The small commie communities all dried up and faded away as their kids left for greener pastures, because few of them did much past feeding themselves while being more soul draining then alternatives. I do agree that small communities in general excel and are much more stable then massive ones. Although his point on inefficiency of larger systems is not true in all aspects some its dead wrong, but the people keeping tabs on their own governance it is clearly true. Which in the long term ends up a huge factor. Doesnt matter what form of governance for that, some just turn bad faster is all. Theoretically we could break that cycle in the place like the US with our checks and balances except the people the most important check valve do not stay inform3ed or engaged nor do we hold leaders accountable, nor do we currently push for most decisions to be local etc etc etc. But Id argue it had the potential to work where other longterm larger models failed, it wont we failed ourselves here long ago but it could have.