Alloy recovery math.

[ZenOps]

http://www.mint.ca/store/dyn/PDFs/RCMin ... rch_27.pdf

Just calculating out some numbers out loud for the year 2013:

"The Mint recovered and sold 1,278.4 metric tonnes of nickel and 228.0 metric tonnes of cupronickel compared
to 1,326.5 metric tonnes of nickel and 286.0 metric tonnes of cupronickel in 2012. Revenue from ARP declined
to $29.7 million from $35.6 million in 2012. The decline in revenue reflects the declining volume of alloy coins
in the marketplace and the decline in the price of nickel."

There is only one cupronickel coin made in Canada of course, which is the Canadian nickel made from 1982 to 1999. 228 tonnes = 502,650 pounds

= 50,265,000 five cent cupronickels (1982 to 1999 and a few 2006) melted down last year.

The pure nickel melted down is much harder to calculate as its spread out mostly between pure nickel five cent, dimes and quarters. But by my guesstimation from straight sorting the ARP should have gotten about 1/3rd the amount of pre-81 pure nickels as then did cupronickels, so 95 tonnes = 209,440 pounds

= 20,944,000 five cent pure nickels (pre-1981) melted down last year.

And assuming the rest of the pure nickel coinage was mostly dimes and quarters, and that they are roughly equal in circulation per coin and not per weight (which is bad thing to do, but still - its just for rough guesstimation) 1278.4 tonnes - 95 tonnes = 1183.4 tonnes = approximately 850 tonnes quarters and 333.4 tonnes dimes.

= 168,466,000 quarters made of pure nickel (pre-1999) melted down last year.
= 161,206,000 dimes made of pure nickel (pre-1999) melted down last year.

[JadeDragon]

I still see ni 5 cent, 10 cent and 25 cent but they are getting harder and harder to find because of the ARP. I would think they also pull and melt (or sell) all the American coin they find because there is never any US in the tightly wrapped post ARP rolls. Most of the time I am smart enough to not unwrap these rolls now.

[uthminsta]

...there is never any US in the tightly wrapped post ARP rolls...

So these rolls are easily distinguishable from the others?
And it's weird they would pull the dimes and quarters too, but I guess I don't understand it entirely.

[JadeDragon]

The rolls don't say anything special but the nickel ones are white with blue lettering, crimped each end. You can see all exposed coins are steel.

Yes the Mint is pulling all the Ni coins and CuNi coins even if the value of the metal is less than face. This makes sense because the Mint buys the coin for say $25 cents and replaces it with a coin that costs the Mint a couple cents that they sell for $25 cents (I dont know the actual cost, but not much). As long as there is enough recycleable metal in the coin to cover the actual cost to make a steel core coin, this is profitable.

[mtalbot_ca]

The pure nickel melted down is much harder to calculate as its spread out mostly between pure nickel five cent, dimes and quarters. But by my guesstimation from straight sorting the ARP should have gotten about 1/3rd the amount of pre-81 pure nickels as then did cupronickels, so 95 tonnes = 209,440 pounds

= 20,944,000 five cent pure nickels (pre-1981) melted down last year.

Thanks ZenOps,

If I extrapolate from the number obtained, we can deduct the ARP sorting capacity:

Over 2013, I averaged throughout the year, 10,25% yield. So in order to get 20,944,000 nickels, the system had to process 204,331,707 nickels.

My average for 2012 was 11,35%.

If we:
- assume a linear intrapolation for the 2003-2011 numbers.
- assume that the ARP capacity remained stable

we get the following numbers:

2003 = 21,25% x 204 331 707 = 43 420 488
2004 = 20,15% x 204 331 707 = 41 172 839
2005 = 19,05% x 204 331 707 = 38 925 191
2006 = 17,95% x 204 331 707 = 36 677 542
2007 = 16,85% x 204 331 707 = 34 429 893
2008 = 15,75% x 204 331 707 = 32 182 245
2009 = 14,65% x 204 331 707 = 29 934 596
2010 = 13,55% x 204 331 707 = 27 686 947
2011 = 12,45% x 204 331 707 = 25 439 299
2012 = 11,35% x 204 331 707 = 23 191 650
2013 = 10,25% x 204 331 707 = 20 944 001
Total = 354 004 690 nickels

Now the .999 nickels total is: 1 820 997 603

then, so far the ARP has removed : 19,44%.

[Recyclersteve]

The pure nickel melted down is much harder to calculate as its spread out mostly between pure nickel five cent, dimes and quarters. But by my guesstimation from straight sorting the ARP should have gotten about 1/3rd the amount of pre-81 pure nickels as then did cupronickels, so 95 tonnes = 209,440 pounds

= 20,944,000 five cent pure nickels (pre-1981) melted down last year.

Thanks ZenOps,

If I extrapolate from the number obtained, we can deduct the ARP sorting capacity:

Over 2013, I averaged throughout the year, 10,25% yield. So in order to get 20,944,000 nickels, the system had to process 204,331,707 nickels.

My average for 2012 was 11,35%.

If we:
- assume a linear intrapolation for the 2003-2011 numbers.
- assume that the ARP capacity remained stable

we get the following numbers:

2003 = 21,25% x 204 331 707 = 43 420 488
2004 = 20,15% x 204 331 707 = 41 172 839
2005 = 19,05% x 204 331 707 = 38 925 191
2006 = 17,95% x 204 331 707 = 36 677 542
2007 = 16,85% x 204 331 707 = 34 429 893
2008 = 15,75% x 204 331 707 = 32 182 245
2009 = 14,65% x 204 331 707 = 29 934 596
2010 = 13,55% x 204 331 707 = 27 686 947
2011 = 12,45% x 204 331 707 = 25 439 299
2012 = 11,35% x 204 331 707 = 23 191 650
2013 = 10,25% x 204 331 707 = 20 944 001
Total = 354 004 690 nickels

Now the .999 nickels total is: 1 820 997 603

then, so far the ARP has removed : 19,44%.

I don't mean to make this too complicated, but I thought I read somewhere that the ARP didn't begin til 2004 and not until 2007 for nickels. mtalbot_ca, I wonder how the stats above would look taking this into consideration? My source: viewtopic.php?f=8&t=18560 -- per response by henrysmedford on 11/10/12 to "Canadian .999% still out there"...

[68Camaro]

The pure nickel melted down is much harder to calculate as its spread out mostly between pure nickel five cent, dimes and quarters. But by my guesstimation from straight sorting the ARP should have gotten about 1/3rd the amount of pre-81 pure nickels as then did cupronickels, so 95 tonnes = 209,440 pounds

= 20,944,000 five cent pure nickels (pre-1981) melted down last year.

Thanks ZenOps,

If I extrapolate from the number obtained, we can deduct the ARP sorting capacity:

Over 2013, I averaged throughout the year, 10,25% yield. So in order to get 20,944,000 nickels, the system had to process 204,331,707 nickels.

My average for 2012 was 11,35%.

If we:
- assume a linear intrapolation for the 2003-2011 numbers.
- assume that the ARP capacity remained stable

we get the following numbers:

2003 = 21,25% x 204 331 707 = 43 420 488
2004 = 20,15% x 204 331 707 = 41 172 839
2005 = 19,05% x 204 331 707 = 38 925 191
2006 = 17,95% x 204 331 707 = 36 677 542
2007 = 16,85% x 204 331 707 = 34 429 893
2008 = 15,75% x 204 331 707 = 32 182 245
2009 = 14,65% x 204 331 707 = 29 934 596
2010 = 13,55% x 204 331 707 = 27 686 947
2011 = 12,45% x 204 331 707 = 25 439 299
2012 = 11,35% x 204 331 707 = 23 191 650
2013 = 10,25% x 204 331 707 = 20 944 001
Total = 354 004 690 nickels

Now the .999 nickels total is: 1 820 997 603

then, so far the ARP has removed : 19,44%.

I'm not sure what your 2014 average is - didn't do the math - but skimming your posts it appears to be far less than 9+%, more like 7. While you've still had some sporadic big boxes as one would expect with a distribution of yield, you've also had a fair number of small yield boxes at 5% or less. They may be further along that you predicted a few months ago.

[mtalbot_ca]

I'm not sure what your 2014 average is - didn't do the math - but skimming your posts it appears to be far less than 9+%, more like 7. While you've still had some sporadic big boxes as one would expect with a distribution of yield, you've also had a fair number of small yield boxes at 5% or less. They may be further along that you predicted a few months ago.

Agreed, my average for 2014 is only 7,35%. I was told by the brach manager that their biggest nickel influx is around X-Mas , as one would expect people cashing-in on the coin jars, but also around vacation (summer) time. At these two occasions, I did get slightly better boxes.