Peak gold?

[Saabman]

It's a Goldman Sach's report.......so......grain of salt........

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/in-20- ... beforebell


SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — In another two decades, rare commodities may become seriously scarce.

According to Goldman Sachs, the world has about 20 years’ worth each of known minable reserves of gold GCJ5, +0.20% diamonds and zinc. Platinum PLJ5, +1.84% copper HGK5, -0.41% and nickel reserves only have about 40 years or less left.

[neilgin1]

It's a Goldman Sach's report.......so......grain of salt........

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/in-20- ... beforebell


SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — In another two decades, rare commodities may become seriously scarce.

According to Goldman Sachs, the world has about 20 years’ worth each of known minable reserves of gold GCJ5, +0.20% diamonds and zinc. Platinum PLJ5, +1.84% copper HGK5, -0.41% and nickel reserves only have about 40 years or less left.

grain of salt...you bet....more like a bait bar.....of course we're near peak...in everything. i'm just guessing, but those snakes might be doing this......suck weak longs into Au, and when I say "weak", I mean hedge funds in the 50 mln to 500 mln range on the long side. Now we got stocks in the stratosphere...anytime between now and Oct, that all mess could crater....and what will it take down with it?...gold, right, including the billions that these weak longs lose, when gold trades ON THE BOARD at 900...or 750...or whatever Goldman wants....ever notice the revolving door between Goldman and dot gov?

[silverstacker]

It's a Goldman Sach's report.......so......grain of salt........

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/in-20- ... beforebell


SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — In another two decades, rare commodities may become seriously scarce.

According to Goldman Sachs, the world has about 20 years’ worth each of known minable reserves of gold GCJ5, +0.20% diamonds and zinc. Platinum PLJ5, +1.84% copper HGK5, -0.41% and nickel reserves only have about 40 years or less left.

I heard about this on FBN this morning and it was eye opening how much is actually left to be mined. My question is how do they know that without more exploration? I'm not as educated on the subject as Most on this site but prospecting in other areas could open the door for "un-tapped" gold right? Or has the entire world been evaluated and have come to this conclusion? I'm baffled.

[68Camaro]

No one can be sure of what we don't know but all the known easy gold is gone, by definition.

[Recyclersteve]

Didn't the report say "There is a looming shortage of gold, except for the fake crap coming out of China."

[johnbrickner]

I get the whole peak everything. It goes something like cost in > value out. But with (anyone feel free to correct me if any of this is found incorrect) gold around $1140/oz it is at or about a 4 year low. This spot price represents a cost in > value out for about 1/3 of the gold being mined, causing the entire industry of gold mining to write down $26 billions last year.

So, is it any surprise this year is the predicted peak production for gold and for a few years to come? I would guess we will see a future peak production chart for gold to resemble the chart for oil.

My question is when production increases above the current peak due to the value of gold > fiat (in a crazy way) how long will it last, a couple of years like we can expect from the production of shale oil wells?

[neilgin1]

I heard about this on FBN this morning and it was eye opening how much is actually left to be mined. My question is how do they know that without more exploration? I'm not as educated on the subject as Most on this site but prospecting in other areas could open the door for "un-tapped" gold right? Or has the entire world been evaluated and have come to this conclusion? I'm baffled.

the KEY to understanding the concept of ERoEI....."Energy returned on Energy INVESTED"....rather than my wandering posts, let me hit you up with the wiki entry....the top part is rather dense equations, skip down to the section "Economic influence of EROEI"

link: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_ret ... y_invested

on the right of this part, you'll see two graphics, the lower of the two is easier to understand, for instance the first entry is "biodiesel" with a value of 1.3....that means for every barrel of energy expended, we get 1.3 barrels in return. Ethanol corn has the same EROEI......1.3....the trouble with this is, how LONG can we maintain the past two years of record corn harvests, in 2013, we grow about 14 billion bushels in the States, in 2014, we set a record corn harvest of 14.5 bln bu. I can remember 1993, when the corn crop was FLOOD ravaged, not drought....and we wound up with 6.5 bln bushels. this was the year after a record crop production of (drum roll) 9.3 bln bushels....and this was way before we were cooking corn into ethanol. IF, God forbid, we grew 9.3 bln bu. in 2015, corn would spike to $10 plus dollars a bushels, and if you think meat prices are high now......you aint seen nothing yet.

Go further down this table and you'll see "Oil and Gas 1970"...at 30 (to 1) and then "Oil and Gas 2005 at 14.5 (to 1).....and THAT is a ten year old stat.....do you see the problem?...and I know i'm just posting energy figures, and not PM's or BM's, but to mine PM's, you need energy, which is why a LOT of the top tier mines are producing silver at $19 a toz cost....and the secondary and tertiary producers costs are way higher. To keep the cash coming in, they have to issue bonds...or stock. I would be leery about these debt issues, or stock prices, when you have mining concerns, producing at a loss....

Now the scariest figure is the bitumen tar sands figure on this table....they say its 1 to 5....that is a LIE, its more like 1 to 1.3, from EVERYTHING I've been reading, for instance the Canadian tar sands....to get the oil OUT of these tar soaked deposits, you have to use enormous amounts of the worlds most precious and valuable resource....WATER....clean water, and when they're "done" with this water...its aint clean...oh no. its the same when frackers buy the nice fine white sands, to extract their product....these sand pits are MURDER on the water table surrounding the sand mines...and not only that, these fracked gas deposits, the natgas.....the depletion rates YoY can get up to 30% down, year on year, whereas a conventional oil well has an average 5% depletion rate YoY.

back to ethanol just for a second, don't you think its rather insane to be putting FOOD into our gas tanks, for 1-1.3 EROEI?

and on the subject of "insane"..or collective insanity, we somehow think that our leaders, political, business and/or military have THE ANSWERS....they don't, which is why we see the news and headlines get more insane, more bloody, more on fire with each passing day....not just US leadership, all over the globe...these are not dumb guys, they can see the ERoEI figures, the paper debt instruments TIED to ERoEI, which nation has what and how much, but they act like an inner city youth addicted to crack, whose bag is running down, that youth gets his AK-47, and "gets what he's gots to gets"....no matter WHO has to die....or these leaders are like these insane individuals who crash down stores on Black Friday (or is it Thursday now) to buy plastic trinkets, or ipods, iphones, or other such foolishness....ON CREDIT?....you ever watch those video's inside the walmarts of the land?....the insanity of it all?

its the same in leadership, all over the globe......"i gots to get, what I gots to get"....no matter who has to die.

forgive what might seem like a depressing post, but I believe, quite firmly we are heading for a very dark, savage, lawless time period, where billions will die. time frame?...I don't know. I posted this documentary before and i'll do it again...called "Collapse", and the ironic thing is, the man interviewed, Michael Ruppert committed suicide a couple years ago. Personally...i'm NOT joining him coz i'm already dead to this world and alive to God. not talking about "religion", coz that kills, Jesus saves....take the plunge.



kind of a paltry return....then go further down this table and you'll see a pair of entries:

[IdahoCopper]

No one can be sure of what we don't know but all the known easy gold is gone, by definition.

The gold on Mars is easy to find, its in the inner curve of the river bends, waiting to be scooped up.

The great part about Mars gold, is you don't need to bring it back to Earth. Just refine it into bars, do the certified accounting, stack them, and cover them with a tarp. They will be perfectly secure for quite a long time.

[InfleXion]

I don't believe peak gold is a concern. When the solar system was formed, gold, being the heavy metal it is, was deposited both epithermally (near the surface) and mesothermally (deep within the crust). Silver however was only deposited epithermally. We will continue to find gold as we go deeper into the Earth. While it may be true that all the easy to get gold and silver has already been mined, there is a lot more gold waiting to be found on our planet at least in relation to what was initially deposited.

I'd also venture a guess that Mars has already been mined. The Cydonia ruins there match the Pleiades constellation, but there is one point in those ruins whose star is missing from today's night sky. You have to roll the star map back 17,000 years for it to fall into place, which is a shot in the dark at dating those ruins. The theory is that we once inhabited Mars, but when its core died and it lost its magnetic field we lost protection from the harmful rays of space, and migrated to Earth as our second home. I wouldn't expect there to be a lot of rich resources there.

Sure we can mine asteroids too, but in the absence of harnessing the power of nuclear fusion which would make all metals essentially worthless (this is a real possibility actually, but would never be public domain), any alternative avenues of acquiring precious metals will be more costly than what we are doing today.

[Treetop]

One thing to consider is gold that isnt currently profitable. I know a guy locally who has a mountain of gold, literally. Problem is it is dust mixed into volcanic ash, I believe. either way it cost 1400 an ounce in late 90s prices to get at it, Im not sure what it would cost today. This is one thing I like about owning more silver then gold. (presuming I ever replace what was lost in that flash flood 2 springs ago)

[johnbrickner]

TY Neil, I missed Mr. Ruppert the first time round.

Wow, absolutely captivating. 14 years ahead of the curve I'm following by his own words. Good to see this movement had most capable leaders in the initial vanguard. Individuals who lead from the front. Giants among men, who's shoulders we can stand on and be better able to see the vision that lies down the road we are headed.

Truly Neil, I am grateful for your presence here along with a host of others I dare not list as someone who is most deserving to be mentioned will end up being forgotten.

God Bless RC and it's Community

[68Camaro]

I don't know Mr. Ruppert; I'm sad that he committed suicide.

In the introduction - a factual error right away. A Q clearance is a DOE clearance. It's not "above" a TS clearance, which is a DoD clearance. The two are roughly equivalent but different. He makes some absolute claims, which I'm always wary of, and he was wrong about peak oil, because he didn't know to consider oil shale (regardless of what one thinks of that). He was wrong about the US leaving IRAQ, though we've had to go back because of ISIS.

I'll give this a further listen when I have more time. 9 minutes into it and I'll have to come back to it.

He might be right (I have yet to hear his complete thesis), but not necessarily for the right reasons.

Be discerning.

[neilgin1]

I don't know Mr. Ruppert; I'm sad that he committed suicide.

In the introduction - a factual error right away. A Q clearance is a DOE clearance. It's not "above" a TS clearance, which is a DoD clearance. The two are roughly equivalent but different. He makes some absolute claims, which I'm always wary of, and he was wrong about peak oil, because he didn't know to consider oil shale (regardless of what one thinks of that). He was wrong about the US leaving IRAQ, though we've had to go back because of ISIS.

I'll give this a further listen when I have more time. 9 minutes into it and I'll have to come back to it.

He might be right (I have yet to hear his complete thesis), but not necessarily for the right reasons.

Be discerning.

68, you KNOW I hold you in the greatest esteem, and my post, as the younger brother, to you is not made in contention.

it IS sad that Michael took his life....after the film, I "followed" him, via his new website, because a LOT of new people came alongside him....and frankly they went off message, imho....so I didn't read much more of what he wrote.

I didnt know this about the "Q".....people outside the "community", don't really understand how compartmentalized the intel community really is. I held a TS/Codeword clearance in naval intel....but my mission was a narrow, target country specific mission, and I was more than happy with this mission, because it allowed the South Koreans to rebuild, show their true potential, and demonstrate to the world, that dynamic capitalism/mercantilism WORKS, as opposed to "crony" capitalism. TO DATE, I believe our intervention in Korea, when the DPRK invaded in June 1950, and the ensuing commitment to the ROK, with both American blood and treasure, to shield them from some REALLY bad guys, stands as one of the FEW international US, that has any nobility or wisdom behind it. Starting with Iran in 1953, to the present date, I absolutely abhor and repudiate our schemes to subvert any independent nations polity. Succinctly put, i'm not a fan of the Dulles boys...OR their "children" today in the "community".

and the reason I hold this opinion, is my last year, 1980, when I was stateside, at an alphabet station, I witnessed firsthand, the lies and dark hypocrisy of my elders. You see, I was a true believer of the "shining city on the hill"....to me that is not just electoral verbiage to use to win political office. When I was in Korea, as a teenager, I was told, "stay the course, you'll be on the NSC before your 30" ......but 1980 changed all that, as I have nothing but contempt for lies and hypocrisy, the golden intel analyst is a truth teller, anything less is disservice to our Nation....so I left, did my four years. Even if I HAD continued, and my superiors prediction came true...ie NSC....I would have resigned on 21 Dec 1989,the day after the Panama invasion...and if I could swallow that murderous exercise, justify it in my mind, I would have resigned in Oct 1990, after I uncovered the transcripts of Amb April Glaspie's visit to Saddam Hussein 4 days prior to that Babylonian dictators invasion of Kuwait, the fool was set up, and he didn't even know it.

I would never be party to....the machine. A man MUST have honor and nobility, and I have tried my all my life to maintain this stance,because to ME, being an American means our default setting is Honor and Nobility....but I guess, in the eyes of MANY in the "community"...that's just naïve, to which I reply, "have fun lads, but someday your grandchildren, the ones who survive, will be crawling thru radioactive ruin, wondering, how this all happened.

To those who have been given much, much will be expected

due respect, we are at peak oil, albeit what he describes as the rocky plateau phase...believe me, I spend hours over EIA prod figures, and if a 1 to 5 EROEI figure for shale oil is IT? oh man, we are ####ed. Iraq?....we never REALLY left, we just replaced uniformed troops, with about 6,000 "private sector" troops, usually "retired" specop warriors.....that's a regiment, a regiment that is the crack element.....as far as "Daesh", that's what the arabs call what we have branded "ISIS" for domestic consumption, Daesh is another intel op, from start to finish, just like the so-called "Arab Spring" was....so whats the purpose of this branded "ISIS"?...its a honey trap, you lure thousands of crazed jihadi dead enders into a geographic area, you fix their positions, then you kill them.

is it smart warfighting?......you bet, but is right?....is it smart in the LONG picture? Is it the kind of people, WE, as Americans want to be?....and I am led to say no, as it will be the death, the death of the Republic, and very possibly, these games, will lead to much horror and bloodshed ON our country, The founding fathers of this republic would be aghast at where we are as a nation on 2 April 2015....not only as what poses as "leadership", but also the vast amount of our fellow countrymen, who are CLUELESS, who cant even be bothered to be an informed citizenry.

and my dear brother 68, I hope you know, what I just wrote was not a spear thrown at you....no,no, no. banish that thought, because freedom also means free discourse, salted with respect, so in Liberty, I remain your pal, n.

[68Camaro]

Roger that. I have so little confidence in the facts behind the truth of any of our positions for the past decades that I have trouble even formulating opinions for some of our actions, but it is clear that we are not consistent with our founding principles. So I look for consistency in what people say. When they say little things that aren't correct. I start wanting to peel back the onion because there is liable to be more error deeper. That's nothing against Mr. Ruppert - I still have no opinion on him one way or other. Peak oil as a concept makes sense. I'm just not sure how easy it is to detect it in advance. We can see the sgns of the plateau -but I wouldn't want to place a bet on how long or rocky that plateau is.

Peace brother.

[neilgin1]

Roger that. I have so little confidence in the facts behind the truth of any of our positions for the past decades that I have trouble even formulating opinions for some of our actions, but it is clear that we are not consistent with our founding principles. So I look for consistency in what people say. When they say little things that aren't correct. I start wanting to peel back the onion because there is liable to be more error deeper. That's nothing against Mr. Ruppert - I still have no opinion on him one way or other. Peak oil as a concept makes sense. I'm just not sure how easy it is to detect it in advance. We can see the sgns of the plateau -but I wouldn't want to place a bet on how long or rocky that plateau is.

Peace brother.

and abundant peace and love to you and yours in the Highest. in many ways its too bad, we are only separated, and never have a chance to hang out...I feel that way about many posters here, you among them. I would not quarrel or fuss (one poster the exception, and I wont go into that)

its funny you bring up onion layers....that's what I always called the world of intel.......the endless onion. I just get real sad when I think about the direction our beautiful country is headed in...the world too...I watched "Braveheart" for the first time last night, and found so MANY parallels to these days....I don't know how a Scotsman could not watch that film, and be boiling.

Poor Mel....."Braveheart", "The Patriot" and then "The Passion of the Christ"....boy o boy....then the devil had a field day with him...ole sluefoot knows RIGHT where your weakness's are.....and Mel had them ALL splayed out for the entire world to see, but its also the point man that gets shot at first......n.

[68Camaro]

...
I posted this documentary before and i'll do it again...called "Collapse", and the ironic thing is, the man interviewed, Michael Ruppert committed suicide a couple years ago. Personally...i'm NOT joining him coz i'm already dead to this world and alive to God. not talking about "religion", coz that kills, Jesus saves....take the plunge.



...

I didn't watch it before Neil but out of respect for you I gave it my full attention the past day. I will say that while his style is not mine he did throw out several stimulating thoughts.

FWIW, a review of it follows, for anyone either not interested in spending the 82 minutes, or not sure if they want to spend that time.

Summary:

Overall premise - our energy use revolves our petroleum products, which can't be enough replaced globally by any other means [a key premise that needs to be tested]. He asserts we're at peak oil. He asserts that global population growth is directly tied to energy production growth. He asserts that global wealth is directly tied to energy production. He asserts that peak oil means that both population and wealth are at (or near) a peak. He asserts that wealth and population will decline, and that those declines will occur violently with massive population loss. He provides few details for how this will happen, and few recommendations for what to do about it.

He says all his learning in a single concept boils down to: The love of money is the root of all evil.

My Counterpoint:

There are several thoughts worthy of contemplation.

However in the video he runs down a number of rabbit trails that detract from his point. He presents with too much drama and exaggerated and debatable or extrapolated data presented as fact. The overall argument does make sense if one presumes there is no replacement of oil (and we shouldn't discount that, in our planning). But it doesn't consider alternate non-oil organic methods of making plastics and other products currently using oil-based feedstocks. It doesn't consider that technology improvements in solar efficiency really are increasing and those increases can be reasonably expected to continue, dramatically (though not instantly). He doesn't consider that the bumpy plateau could extend long enough to allow these alternative sources to start carrying increasing amounts of energy burden. He doesn't consider the likelihood that the current maxi-grid network distribution of energy will likely be supplemented if not replaced with micro-grid distribution over large parts of the country. But - his fundamental concern is valid and he could still be right about alternative energy not coming on line fast enough, though he could be wrong (even badly wrong) on timing of a collapse.

Specific Interesting Thoughts:

He completed a paraphrased thought from the 18th century Prussian general Carl von Clausewitz (which actually should be "War is merely the continuation of policy by other means"). Ruppert adds "Politics is a continuation of economics by other means." The connection (not made by Ruppert here, since made by others) of these two is that war is the continuation of economics by other means.

There is a good simple definition of derivative at about 38 minutes.

He notes that you cannot print any more money than there is energy to back it up.

He comments that collapse needs to be fast in order to retain infrastructure. [This is a good point. Keep this in mind; if you believe government understands this what would it persuade them to do?]

He angrily notes that "when the MSM and government said no one could have predicted this (the 2008 crash) they were lying through their f***ing teeth".

I suspect his downfall might have been Obama, because he seems to have allowed himself to been truly engaged by Obama, possibly even putting some faith in him. Later (after the video) he would have to have been crushed by the reality of Obama. Perhaps that lead to his suicide. At about 1:12 and following He describes Obama as a likeable sincere guy, who is as imprisoned as we all are. "We should not make the success or failure of human civilization rest on his shoulders." He suggests that we have the power to change things. He says "I plan on living joyfully and happily the rest of my life as a free man." He says we are in front of the greatest preventable holocaust in the history of mankind. He says to walk away would mean selling out. Of course he would then have observed Obama in action, resulting in complete disenchantment. He then commits suicide. Related? Maybe possible.

Further Details

His credentials: Not a technologist. BS in political science. Policeman. Investigator.

Note despite what he says Carter wasn't president in 76. [I'll allow him to be off a year, but it detracts from the story.]

He describes a revolution in Greece occurring in 2009 - 6 years later it is still in slow motion.

About 30 minutes into it the discussion oddly re-frames into a set of conspiracy theories about CIA and drugs, and then other conspiracies including heat from Cheney and Rumsfeld. Most of this discussion isn't really even related to the rest of the video; it's a rabbit trail.

He provides some background related to energy with factoids some of which are (IMO) exaggerated, incorrect, or debatable. He could make his case better without some of the drama. The drama is only needed to provide urgency to the timing.

He presumes our future energy use must revolve around oil, because it has in the past and because he dismisses all the alternative sources, and asserts we are at peak oil. Note that if he's wrong about alternative sources the whole argument cracks or crumbles.

He says we went to Iraq for the oil because Saddam was going to price it in Euros. Then he says Iraq doesn't have that much oil. We went to war for a small amount of oil? That doesn't make much sense.

Global use: 85 million barrels/day
Iraq reserves: 90 billion barrels

Taking his numbers at face value, he dismisses the significance of Iraq reserves, but they alone would supply the world for a >thousand days; that's significant. (I'm not making any argument for war, just noting the issue.) And I do think the Iraq war was about oil, but not solely about Iraq oil but the larger concern about Iraq taking over the balance of Arabia.

Him saying that energy companies are cheering the melting of the polar ice caps is ridiculous drama.

On alternative energies:

He dismisses nuclear and tidal. I don't disagree with his view of nuclear and tidal, at least presuming no new improvements in technology. But he presumes clean fusion is impossible; I wouldn't count that out but it won't be soon, that's for sure.
He's completely right of course about ethanol, at least as a major supply - the thermodynamics of it make no sense.
He says clean coal isn't possible - that is ridiculous.
He dismisses solar and wind for reasons that aren't fully valid. The most logical large-scale source of energy is the sun - actually that is the original source of energy behind oil anyway. As I note earlier it appears likely that major advancements in efficiency and cost solar cells will continue.

The video moves into a discussion of fiat, fractional reserve, etc. Describes the whole global economy as a pyramid scheme, which requires infinite growth. Most of us will agree with him on this.

He says you cannot print any more money than there is energy to back it up; interesting observation.

He then makes another interesting connection - infinite growth collides with finite energy. This does describe a massive tension - one we're dealing with now and we should be thinking of where this thought goes. However, this would fall apart (or is significantly delayed until something else creates a reset) if his energy assumptions are wrong.

He then connects peak oil to peak population, and says when oil drops, population must as well. Makes sense, if all the connections hold.

And this is where he gets thin. Thin on details of how it will go down. And thin on details of what one should do to survive it.

His further predictions are thin on details of how this collapse could happen:
A bumpy plateau of peak oil.
Collapse needs to be fast in order to retain infrastructure.
Have to survive the transition phase - 20 to 50 or 100 years. (this is a surprisingly long time prediction)
Mankind is just barely crossing into the "anger phase". We've got to get through the destructive anger phase. Next phases, bargaining, depression, acceptance. Only at acceptance phase that people will be receptive to change.
Local shortages will occur first; collapse will be slow.
FDIC insolvency, Fed Reserve failure, major bankruptcy, starvation.

He is also thin on recommendations for what we should do to protect ourselves:
Need local food production.
Community is what will save us.
Need to know how to live off the land to survive. Need heirloom seeds more than food.
Failure of cell phone service - land lines better.

[neilgin1]

68,
did you write that critique?...if so, that must have been one heck of a writing bout! n

[68Camaro]

68,
did you write that critique?...if so, that must have been one heck of a writing bout! n

You won't see me spending that much time on very many things these days...

And I wouldn't have stayed with it if he hadn't kept throwing out a nugget of something interesting at least very 10-15 minutes. It ended up being worthwhile - I got some interesting thoughts out of it. Thanks for making me do it.

[neilgin1]

68,
did you write that critique?...if so, that must have been one heck of a writing bout! n

You won't see me spending that much time on very many things these days...

And I wouldn't have stayed with it if he hadn't kept throwing out a nugget of something interesting at least very 10-15 minutes. It ended up being worthwhile - I got some interesting thoughts out of it. Thanks for making me do it.

I didn't think you did. There's a certain tenor to it that didn't "sound" like you.

like the term "climate change", when one breathes out "peak oil", its like one thru a stink bomb into the room, and things get politicized, once that happens, then we see agenda, and ad hominem attacks. I'm not saying that in this case, but there's a real subtle diminution of Ruppert himself.

I pick up on this, because while trading crude in the late 90's/early aughts, it was in the $17-19 range, I became convinced peak oil was soon to be upon us, and in my circle, said, "crude is going to $70 first, then $120"....and met with some degree of scorn. somebody suggested I might be "huffing paint thinner".

If you notice today, every conflict zone is based on hydrocarbon energy. So who did write this? neil

[68Camaro]

You misunderstand. I did write it.

[Treetop]

"He then connects peak oil to peak population, and says when oil drops, population must as well. Makes sense, if all the connections hold."

Currently oil drives our agriculture, but without writing half a book it isnt actually driving up yields so much as it makes it easier to drive up yields with fewer doing it. There are individuals where labor is cheap who have done such things as grow a fast growing grass and coppice trees and produce 20X plus the meat from the same land. If those particular models I reference switched to goat over cattle it could be 3-4 x more meat per the same inputs. I can list other types of potentials as well, point being, especially since labor is cheap in much of the world we could readily continue to increase production even from the same lands well beyond the foreseeable future if the right mindset is employed. Even if cheap oil goes away. We could then discuss why this is unlikely to happen, but none of the reasons it is unlikely to go that way are because it cant be done, it indeed has been done small scale.

In fact by far the more productive models are not driven by cheap fuel because they are not mono cultures where machine harvest and planting and managing works well because things are uniform. so while things are likely to play out something close to this, it is only because of mindset, the dream we share having tunnel vision rather then because it is the only potential. to be clear you would need more people in the fields, but we do have lots of unemployed so said people exist. Although Ive heard rumors this generation of americans (if born here) is to good for menial work so perhaps its not possible in the US at all, only in the third world.

[Treetop]

oil is finite, peak oil definitely exists, but will anyone alive today live to see it? Wise or not the shale guys have shown us the stuff is all over. We arent far from competing with saudi arabia on volume now (not price) We arent the only place that could employ such methods either. Its more expensive then past means but according to some anyway at prices a bit higher then current we have many generations worth of it. Then we have the groups pushing for deep sea wells which I find a very short sighted prospect but there is a literal ocean of oil under our ocean of water. If this was somehow tapped safely we have more oil then we could ever use at our fingertips. Im not sure this can be tapped safely, but several groups certainly seem to be trying to figure it out.

I also have an uncle I probably mentioned before, who worked in saudi arabia finding new places to drill for oil. He tells me the official stats are 100% bogus. They havent even needed to use all the allready drilled and sealed wells from decades ago (the 40s) let alone all the spots they could if needed drill which dwarf what is tapped already. According to him they could flood the world with it for centuries worth of current usage at a fraction of current prices if they wanted. I dont say this to convince anyone of course, but the picture we have might not represent reality at all.

[68Camaro]

You misunderstand. I did write it.

And further there was no scorn intended of Mr. Ruppert; I found him quite interesting and with some interesting ideas (as I tried to convey). But I also think he had gotten himself too caught up in the drama of the story and that it started to affect his objectivity.

To quote a fictional character...

'It is a capital mistake to theorise before one has data. Insensibly one begins to twist facts to suit theories, instead of theories to suit facts." Sherlock Holmes

But several things he said I view with great importance and I'm letting them sink in before deciding what to do with them.

[Treetop]

"He is also thin on recommendations for what we should do to protect ourselves:
Need local food production.
Community is what will save us.
Need to know how to live off the land to survive. Need heirloom seeds more than food.
Failure of cell phone service - land lines better."

A few small points on part of this. He actually means to reference "open pollinated" seeds, heirloom is just a loose term without a solid definition, (not all agree what makes something an heirloom, not as defined as the word antique) of the older open pollinated stuff. The more important point though is hes wrong, and even most gardeners will tell you the same, but they are also wrong. You can definitely save seeds from hybrids, contrary to what many say. That is how you start any breeding project, cross two varieties making a hybrid then select from there. Not only is this a perfectly viable way to start, potentially you end up with something superior down the road. Some modern hybrids will have better traits then the bulk of even locally proven open pollinated/heirloom stuff. Disease especially, but other traits also. Grow it for a generation then call it an heirloom if you want, lol. Several I know including myself just didn't get great results until I either had trialed many varieties or bred my own, which is what happens if you start with a hybrid. Something like corn this is nearly vital, for smallscale. you NEED to save seed from MINIMUM of 100 plants to retain most genetic diversity in a corn variety. Start with a hybrid or just let a few varieties cross, and dont select to hard youll keep up enough diversity to ensure longterm viability of your line much easier. Luckily most crops aren't like that but corn, its very easy for your line to degrade fast.

anyway, not trying to highjack the thread, just thought it is an important enough point it should be said. I know several here that arent growing much now or not at all have seed just in case, so gives some food for thought.

[neilgin1]

You misunderstand. I did write it.

oh....wow, good writing!....to think that you would take the time.

Frankly, many in the "truther"....or "prepper" movement made Michael out to be some "god", I wasn't one of them. I "use" the film as paradigm change 101, cause its kind of simplified....basically he made his name when he confronted Deutcsh about transshipping choke-a-yina into the ghettos of LA....that's what the filmmakers were there for, and they got his whole package, and at that point in his life, he was pretty broke and alone, and this reinvigorated his standing...plus it brought in a whole new crowd of preppers....citified preppers who couldn't tell you the diff between a 7.62 X39mm and a 7.62X51mm round, which is why ,as you correctly stated, there isn't much teeth in "what we do next", because the FACT is, MOST of the folks that work in the entertainment industry are VERY anti-2nd Amendment....and when they DO decide to green light something like "Doomsday Preppers",a program DESIGNED to make preppers look like fools and crazies, the folks that foolishly go on the show are just that.....FOOLS!!! coz anybody serious NEVER violate rules one two and three.....OPSEC.

His suicide didn't engender much respect from where I sit, but if you're in so much pain...ok I guess, blow your brains out.

we all suffer pain, and hurt, BUT I wouldn't even consider doing that a reality, because A.....what would that do my precious 19 year old son's soul?...it would KILL his soul, and the alpha male that I am, anybody that would harm my boy, best find a deep hole to hide, coz "no prisoners".....and B. what did God say about us?...we are His Temple.

so yeh, great writing brother...stay strong, n