The space age may render metal useless

[didou]

(move this post if isn't in the right categories)

Let's take a look at the big picture a greater time-frame that only the 5-10 years that lie ahead and explore a possible outcome of the space exploration:

In our lifetime, we may experience space mining. Robots and/or human will be send to the moon and asteroid with the purpose of mining it's underground and bring back the metal to the earth. I'm not saying it's right or wrong but it may happen.
If it happen, there 2 big question : when and how much it will cost then to bring back a pound of metal. I don't think the kind of metal will matter, every metal on earth will be highly priced. If it's cost a $100/pound to bring back metal, every metal price will drop (assuming they have reach a higher value) and cap at this value. It may be the most significant even since humanity discover metal and the even that happening today the crossroad between human population grow (demand) versus (supply) where all easier source of metal have been dig, leaving only harder and source of metal that cost more to dig. Like the even that we are experiencing right now, there is no precedent for it, nothing come close to that in history and we may never know what impact it may have until it happen.

There 2 sad thing i can see about this scenario :
- first all the U.S. citizen, Canadian, European and Russian have pay from their pockets to finance the research and development of this space age through NASA, ISS and many others. They will never get their investment back as space is a international territory and isn't taxable. Company and the few individual who own them will make big buck on your back. We may have finance a research that will make few individual way richer that anything we ever saw in history and give them the right not to pay taxes back to the citizen who finance them. Increase the gap between a few elites and the majority of poor.

- Many individual that have try to protect their wealth through precious and semi-precious metal will experience a good deal of wealth loss in this process.

I don't think it's possible right now, but if we can calculate how much it will cost to bring back a pound of metal from space to the earth it will fix a limit on how much i am willing to pay for ANY kind of metal i'm investing in. It may be a very important calculation to do before investing too much and considering the incoming of a huge increase in metal prices. Sadly it depend on a probability scenario that may happen and on the facts that we don't really have a choice in the matter because the're is no really better options for protecting wealth right now than metal.

If and when this even will happen, the price of gold, palladium, platinum and others highly priced metal will fall first, leaving only room to invest in lower-priced metal like zinc, copper and nickels. Did everyone will sell their precious metal to invest into space mining company stock ? Isn't metal supposed to protect my wealth over long-term and over few generation ? I think that's something that have happen in the past, but won't work for me.

What are you're thought about this ?

[Rodebaugh]

I love the idea of moon gold, however it is an idea that i believe to be a pipe dream withing the next 100-200years.

Costs in Mining here on earth are as follows as I can think of them:

-proving of reserves
-quantifying w/ more drilling
-production and labor
-mitigation of disturbed land
-processing of ore
-distribution of product

I am sure there are many more fees/costs than noted here. I guess the point I am trying to make is that this venture is financially prohibitive as we know it. Now if it was easy as saying Scotty beam me up and being transferred from one place to another…. costs would be the same. But as for now we can only say Scottytx beam me up and expect a shot glass full of delicious bourbon.

[beauanderos]

It is "Silver...to the moon!" Not "silver, from the moon."

[didou]

As far as i know all equipments needed to dig lunar sol and the chemical transformation plants to turn it into oxygen and hydrogen already exist, it just need to be disassemble and put on a rockets to the moon.

There is some trouble with the lunar habit but from what i have read, a lunar base able to process several ton of lunar soil each day can be put on the moon in the next 10-12 years. Of course it's government owned and for scientific purpose only. But i can't believe private mining company are that far behind to put the time frame at 100-200 years.

[Neckro]

Haha, we have enough problems getting our people to leave orbit. Let alone spend billions getting tons of equipment to a foreign space body to mine it, and get it back. We can't even establish a moon base after 50+ yrs of having 'gone' there.

[didou]

You probably refer to US with the 'WE'. There is several others country that have launched people and satellite over moon, mars than the US, and they have done a way better job that the US lately in space.

Even if the US and European have very large economical difficulties doesn't change a thing. In time of great crisis, the NASA could be sold to private hand for a can of chick peas. Large company have power over several country government and will take advantage of this.

I'm not saying the US government will do it, it probably won't, but i'm saying it will happen.

The USA have lost the opportunity to own the world by launching nuclear energy power source into space with the Bush Administration, for the good or for the bad, i think it's too late for them now, another country will do it, not them.

[Neckro]

By We I meant the world. The US isn't the technical superiority of the world anymore. So I don't expect much progress from the US aside from weapons to kill.

[999Ni]

Oh man I hope we don't get this advanced for the sake of my metals. Good thoughts on this didou.

[Spikeanator6982]

(
If it happen, there 2 big question : when and how much it will cost then to bring back a pound of metal. I don't think the kind of metal will matter, every metal on earth will be highly priced. If it's cost a $100/pound to bring back metal, every metal price will drop (assuming they have reach a higher value) and cap at this value. It may be the most significant even since humanity discover metal and the even that happening today the crossroad between human population grow (demand) versus (supply) where all easier source of metal have been dig, leaving only harder and source of metal that cost more to dig. Like the even that we are experiencing right now, there is no precedent for it, nothing come close to that in history and we may never know what impact it may have until it happen.



What are you're thought about this ?

The fault I see with this reasoning is that it doesn't factor anything into the price but shipping and possibly manufacturing( if that was in the $100 price point). Surely on earth two nearly identical mines cost about the same to pull up 1 ton of ore for each one whether or not there is silver or copper in said ore (typically ores are mixed metals but we are skipping that point for now). The price for metals would still be based on demand and rarity. If mars...(earth, dirt, ground etc) has 10% metal content and 80% of that is iron(rust is the reason why mars is red) and only .000001% of the 10% is gold, then its going to cost the mining company more to produce the pound of gold then the pound of iron before the shipping it back to earth is even considered. Now, if theres a planet that has a huge ratio of say gold, then I could see that effecting the price downward.

[HoardCopperByTheTon]

I heard that the USPS declined the option for a lunar flat rate box.. something about a box that weighs 70 pounds there tipping the scales at over 400 pounds here.. and suffering enough terrestrial losses already. So you needn't worry about mining companies getting any cheap shipping rates and sending the metal back here.. that cost will continue to be prohibitively expensive.

[didou]

The fault I see with this reasoning is that it doesn't factor anything into the price but shipping and possibly manufacturing( if that was in the $100 price point). Surely on earth two nearly identical mines cost about the same to pull up 1 ton of ore for each one whether or not there is silver or copper in said ore (typically ores are mixed metals but we are skipping that point for now). The price for metals would still be based on demand and rarity. If mars...(earth, dirt, ground etc) has 10% metal content and 80% of that is iron(rust is the reason why mars is red) and only .000001% of the 10% is gold, then its going to cost the mining company more to produce the pound of gold then the pound of iron before the shipping it back to earth is even considered. Now, if theres a planet that has a huge ratio of say gold, then I could see that effecting the price downward.

I partially agree with that, but it's only considering we never leave the earth for mineral yet. What is rare here isn't on asteroid or others planet. We always been stuck on the same earth since ever, with it's ratio for rarity. Asteroid may contain many ton of gold and will be easy to mine and it's is far more likely to become a mine than moon or mars at this point.

If we got a large supply of mineral the price may drop very low, almost at the price of manufacturing and shipping. Unless a huge company hold most of it to create rarity to manipulate the price but that's another topic.

I heard that the USPS declined the option for a lunar flat rate box.. something about a box that weighs 70 pounds there tipping the scales at over 400 pounds here.. and suffering enough terrestrial losses already. So you needn't worry about mining companies getting any cheap shipping rates and sending the metal back here.. that cost will continue to be prohibitively expensive.

lol

[billo]

For anyone thus persuaded...I offer to buy your gold at $100/lb. Just PM me.

[AGgressive Metal]

What you guys don't know is that a James Bond villain is already laying plans to accomplish this and disrupt the entire world financial system by off-loading 10,000 tons of moon gold onto the London market.

[whatsnext]

Who needs space when 70% of the earth has not been mined, you know the land under the water.

Which is easier?

Going againts gravity, then hauling it earthbound againts gravity
or
going down into the water(not even a mile out if possible) and then floating it to the surface.

Why do we need new space tech(outside the powers that be who want to develope space colonization tecknology off your back for their pocket) when the ocean and underwater landmass is practiclly virgin? The amount of minerals and metal still undiscovered is more than mined already.

The tech for oil drilling is the best way to start into this simple endeavour.

[psi]

I'm into science fiction and I find this kind of speculation interesting, especially imagining what materials will be valuable for future technologies. Getting equipment into orbit may not always be as energy intensive as today (look at the losses to heat), and maybe there is an asteroid somewhere full of platinum group metals that would dwarf the world's supply and completely throw off prices. Nuclear reactions are another avenue to make the rarest elements a lot less rare. At the other extreme aluminum or silicon are so prevalent in the earth's crust that it will probably never be more economical to bring back from space or make in a reactor. So I guess that some of the common to moderately uncommon elements could be expected to hold value the best in those scenarios which seems to be what didou was arguing.

The title of the post is bit misleading though, of course it would be tricky to have space travel at all with no metals. Beryllium for example seems to have some amazing properties of low density with high strength, stiffness and heat resistance.

[Mossy]

I'm into science fiction and I find this kind of speculation interesting, especially imagining what materials will be valuable for future technologies.

John Ringo has written two books in the Schlock Mercenary universe with a third on the way. The first does a fairly good job describing the problems to be expected "meteor mining". Seen them yet? (I really enjoyed the first two and eagerly awaiting the third.)

[scyther]

Nooooooooooooooo!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I hate space PMs.

[68Camaro]

For anyone thus persuaded...I offer to buy your gold at $100/lb. Just PM me.

I'll double your offer: $200/lb. Just PM *me*!

[knibloe]

Interestingly enough, I was thinking about this the other day. Somewhere I read that most of the worlds platinum is found in several key sites and that it is believed that it was put there by asteroids. If that is true, the same would be true on the moon. The trick would be to scan the craters looking for the ones with the metals that you want.

I also believe that it will be a private compny that does it. Not a government. As far as taxes go, any company that mines the moon for return to earth would end up paying taxes in the country that they bring them back to. Don't worry about companies evadiing taxes. It won't happen.

[IdahoCopper]

Mars would be the mostly likely off-Earth place to mine gold. Assuming early Mars had similar geologic processes to concentrate gold into veins and ore bodies, the ancient riverbeds that we presently observe from orbit are the places to search for placer mining.

Once the gold is mined and refined into bullion with serial numbers, it can be stacked under a tarp and sold in situ. There is no need to return it to Earth for vault storage. Mars is presently a very secure location.

[68Camaro]

Average cost per pound to geosynchronus transfer orbit is about $10,000 per lb. OK, now you need to get those people and equipment mass and food and fuel out to the moon (or worse) Mars. I hope there is no need for me to go into the rest of the math as it should be clear that even if the bars were already processed and sitting on the surface, they couldn't be gotten and moved back to earth for less than the current price of mining fresh gold on earth.

[IdahoCopper]

Current private industry plans to go to Mars are one-way trips for the people. They would be colonists, not visitors. See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Case_for_Mars for more info on that.

[scyther]

Average cost per pound to geosynchronus transfer orbit is about $10,000 per lb. OK, now you need to get those people and equipment mass and food and fuel out to the moon (or worse) Mars. I hope there is no need for me to go into the rest of the math as it should be clear that even if the bars were already processed and sitting on the surface, they couldn't be gotten and moved back to earth for less than the current price of mining fresh gold on earth.

$10,000 a pound is less than the current cost of gold. And it could get cheaper. I don't think you'd need many (if any) personnel; it would be done by robots. Also, you don't need to the moon or Mars. Large asteroids can be mined directly. And from what I hear, they have a lot of PMs... especially platinum.

[IdahoCopper]

I've got my asteroid; I've owned it since 2000. See http://www.erosproject.com. Since I didn't win my federal lawsuit and 9th Circuit appeal, I've recently been working another angle to substantiate my property claim to 433 Eros.

As of today, the Public Notice is up and visible here: http://www.idahostatesman.com/classified-ads/ad/2153295

The legal process I'm working will take another 2 months or so to complete.

[68Camaro]

Average cost per pound to geosynchronus transfer orbit is about $10,000 per lb. OK, now you need to get those people and equipment mass and food and fuel out to the moon (or worse) Mars. I hope there is no need for me to go into the rest of the math as it should be clear that even if the bars were already processed and sitting on the surface, they couldn't be gotten and moved back to earth for less than the current price of mining fresh gold on earth.

$10,000 a pound is less than the current cost of gold. And it could get cheaper. I don't think you'd need many (if any) personnel; it would be done by robots. Also, you don't need to the moon or Mars. Large asteroids can be mined directly. And from what I hear, they have a lot of PMs... especially platinum.

Excellent... I'll take the risk. I'd be happy to buy your gold and eliminate your risk. Lol