Recyclersteve wrote:[
Actually there was a hedge fund guy named David Einhorn (Greenlight Capital) who came out publicly and said he was concerned about Lehman declaring bankruptcy about a year before they announced it. He was criticized by many for saying so, but was vindicated on September 15, 2008.
Steve, I didn't know that....thanks....its always the one or two or few, that have the courage to swim against the tide, because man's natural inclination is NOT to hear bad news, or to see truth in ANY discipline, if said truth is hard to swallow.
the human experience is all about PAIN AVOIDANCE , don't you think. believe me, I am NOT positing myself as "prophet", God forbid. this is the only social media I ever post on, because the other core posters treat one another with love and respect, almost as if we were all sitting around a campfire, or on a porch, and that is a rare thing on a hostile internet...its a wonderful thing, a refuge of sorts, especially for a sometimes lonely soul like myself.
my "oh oh" 2007 moment came out of the blue, sitting besides a pool, of someone dear to me, while I was traveling. I was scanning the net, checking markets, smoking a butt, and this dear friend, came out to join me for a cigarette. The house had JUST been bought, and i'm not a busybody, but I asked, "so what did you pay for this wonderful house?"...the relationship is close enough, that I didn't feel out of line with my query.
"674" (thousand) (and bought with a subprime, interest only loan)
in reflex, my jaw just dropped, the house, while wonderful, imo, was worth about 400, but the whole dang bubble was (obviously) blowing up in the summer of 2007. i always try and follow the price of EVERYTHING...i'm serious, from cans of corn, to razor wire, to coal and uranium, etc etc etc. (btw..slightly off topic, IF i was a 90 caliber big shot, with a high 9 digit net worth, after the coming implosion, i would be buying with CASH, every distressed coal mining concern, that still had ample reserves, because right now, every fund is divesting from coal, calling it a fuel that's time is "over". coal prices NOW have been pummeled 50% and when everybody is selling?.....that's when you buy. same thing with uranium, but the situation with nuclear energy is more murky, given the Japs inability to get Fukushima under control, and that's an understatement...but coal?...dirty fuel, but there is a LOT of it, the problem is the stack scrubbers, and yes, i see the CO2 emission charts spiked up crazy, which is not good, because that's sailing into unknown outcomes, but someone who is high net worth in dollars, would want to get OUT of currency, and park it into tangibles, especially "out of favor" high BTU tangibles, like coal....AMERICAN coal....and spend the money for some out of the box thinkers, to patent 21st stack scrubbers.....but i'm beautifully middle class, so its all just talk on my part...lol)
so when my jaw dropped, i said...."really?.....674?"...this dear soul, who is a writer, a poet, a GREAT writer saw my concern, and said,
"neily, real estate is just going higher".i didn't say it, because that would cruel, but at that moment, i KNEW the TOP was in for real estate, because while a brilliant mind this dear one is, very little concern or knowledge about general economics or trading.
They wound losing this house, which to this day , just breaks my heart, and was one of the few times, i ever wished i had more resource, because i would have swiftly, lovingly and eagerly paid this house note for them....and this disaster, for them, spelled the dissolution of this family...THEY had to live by "moral hazard" in taking out a subprime crappy note, but the bank that bundled this note and thousands of others was given LEAVE of "moral hazard", and bailed out by the US government, starting with that first "TARP" of $700 bln USD under the Bush admin, continuing to the admin of lil grey Barry, who has his minions just spinning the currency presses into QE infinity....and to add insult to injury, criminals like Jamie Dimond, is the newest billionaire in America (true, "CNBC" broke that lil bon mot), who in my estimation should have been indicted, and let justice have sway. But justice has fled the land, they ripped her blindfolds off, She is NOT "blind" anymore, because as i said before the kid who founded the "Silk Road" got sentenced to life without parole, while Jamie and Jonnie Corzine, and all the worms like them, crack open lobsters and wash them down with a nice Gran Cru Classe Margaux bottle of wine....probably a '75...or '76.
so.....here's live coverage of the kabuki dance between Greece and the EU and the ECB...enjoy the show:
http://www.theguardian.com/business/liv ... ve-updates