Fear and Greed

[beauanderos]

They say that fear and greed are the two most influential motivating factors from, granted, among many.

Here's a thought.

In the current environment of secondary market silver retail market shortages/delays... which dynamic do you think would
have the greater effect? The premise being fear (or would it be contrarian greed?) because of spot prices being pushed down
drives say, 50% of the old stackers... who represent, maybe, 1% of the population, into making further new purchases?

or

Dramatically rising prices, as we have borne witness to the last few days, whets the appetites (greed, or conversely fear that waiting
any longer would price them out of the market?) of an additional new one percent of those who had been aware, but on the sidelines,
catalyzing fifty percent of that fraction to make initial new purchases? I'd be curious to learn what the sales charts indicate during prolonged
periods of rising vs falling prices.

What do you think?

[beauanderos]

my own thoughts? There's a lot of new money out there... waiting to be convinced it would be a smart move to jump on the bandwagon... vs those already on board might have exhausted their own resources already.

[Recyclersteve]

I'm going to abstain from voting because trying to decide which is more important makes my brain hurt.

Both fear and greed are important factors. You also have to consider how the market has been too. Since silver has been in a roughly 4 1/2 year downtrend with any short-term rallies failing, the fear of missing out factor isn't now nearly as pervasive (in my opinion) as it was in 2011. When silver fell $10-15 very quickly in May, 2011, there were those who were afraid of missing out on the "mother of all buying opportunities" as silver was supposed to be on it's way to $100 and beyond. Of course it never got there or even close. Those who took initial aggressive positions when silver was $32-40 an oz. and couldn't afford to buy more when it got cheaper got crushed. That was definitely greed.

It doesn't seem like there is much fear or greed right now. It seems like there is more apathy.

Also, please realize that you may get biased answers because I'm guessing the average person on this site probably owns a decent amount of PM's and thinks they are undervalued. Whether that is right or wrong will ultimately be dictated by the market and the potential paper market manipulation.

One other potential issue with a poll like this is that if someone answers it a year or two from now, things could be very different at that time.

It is way too hard to predict when this will end.

[wheeler_dealer]

In my opinion, I think New buyers are fearful that they will lose money (paper) investing in silver thus making them gun shy to jump in. Old timers (strong hands), seem to be buying still, however, I imagine they are price sensitive. I don't see shortages in the market being a problem. My thoughts are that there is a shortage at current spot price. The "free market" (E bay) has plenty available and offers true price discovery In current market conditions. Having noticed recent bump in spot this week, I think that is trading on the fear factor of the Syrian issue.

[beauanderos]

In my opinion, I think New buyers are fearful that they will lose money (paper) investing in silver thus making them gun shy to jump in. Old timers (strong hands), seem to be buying still, however, I imagine they are price sensitive. I don't see shortages in the market being a problem. My thoughts are that there is a shortage at current spot price. The "free market" (E bay) has plenty available and offers true price discovery In current market conditions. Having noticed recent bump in spot this week, I think that is trading on the fear factor of the Syrian issue.

you bring up some good points.

[TXBullion]

I would say that fear and greed are ultimately the same with a different mask on. Greed stems from the idea of not having enough and fear stems from The idea od not having enough. Isn't that the same when you look at the root ?

[beauanderos]

I would say that fear and greed are ultimately the same with a different mask on. Greed stems from the idea of not having enough and fear stems from The idea od not having enough. Isn't that the same when you look at the root ?

I'm going to say that if placid contentment was the equilibrium, then fear would stem more from anxiety that that status might be disrupted, while greed
could rise more from envy. Who knows? My point was not to learn each of our driving motives... was just wondering if there is more buying during a breakout on the way up, or on breaking support on the way down when prices have been channeled for a considerable length of time.