by Treetop » Thu Nov 03, 2016 2:58 pm
<no echo chamber here. I have a diverse list of friends I mentioned from many backrounds met through a range of ways. I dont make friends within an echo chamber, lol. Sure as heck dont close out dissenting opinions, in fact the people who remain my friends are generally from all political stripes that embrace differing ideas well above the norm because if its not clear from my posts here over the years I love to discuss ideas and contemplate what ifs. The most unifying factor here is I generally stay friends with people who like ideas, from any backround. I used to be on forums for a range of topics, Ive since backed off and this is the only forum I still frequent, but still loosely in contact with alot of them especially the gardeners and homesteaders, which do lean left. I used to be on various types of gardening, homesteading permacuulture, fish culture, outdoors, survival, and other forums. Less drama here then most places so I am still here. lol plus its nice to kep contacts if ever need a quick buck and sell some silver for a project. Politics was not what made them friends though. Plus lots of family in my numbers above as well. Specifically out of ohio and florida. My ohio family is always blue, but I could tell from others they knew bush would win and I was right. Measured the same way Trump seems the clear winner there. For whatever its worth I correctly predicted all elections since 2000 based more on the feel of those I know in ohio who historically almost always go the way the whole country goes. It is the swing state among swing states.
I followed polls several elections and never saw disparities this large. Did you notice how believe it was the ABC poll shifted 12 points like a week ago towards turmp? Due to changes they said in whow as voting that apparently didnt register at that level on ay other poll. Or did you see the extensive document podesta waas passing around to who knows who teaching people how to weight polls to make it look like hillary was winning? Which by itself doesnt prove polling places are doing this, but again we are seeing much wider ranges then in past years, and it does prove hillary insiders atleast wanted polls weighted towards her to deceive.
I also spent an hour or two almost daily reading comments section on articles left and right. Its become an obsession this election cycle. I rarely see anyone who likes hillary, I see many who love trump. I do see many supporting hillary but they rarely talk of her virtues rather about trumps lack of them in their minds.
The most accurate national poll of the last two cycles currently has trump up by .1 points. With hillaries voter enthusiasm waning and 30 plus percent saying they might rethink their vote based on things coming out the last week. In state polls trump is doing much better then many imply with polling with margins of error or winning in way more then enough battleground states to win. Plus we might easily be underestimating trumps support since many are first time voters. Further historically the candidate from the party who just had 8 years will generally face a 2-4% difference in outcome over polling averages. No matter what people saying when polled a few on the incumbent side stay home and on the opposing side make it when they werent necessarily planning to. SO built that into state polls and its a trump landslide already IF past elections and polls play out the same this time. OBviously a big if in an election like this, but again hillaries support is indeed waning while trumps voters are more adamant then ever.
Here are some other things you wont often see in MSM about the polls. Trump consistently has gotten more republican support then hillary has democrat support. Trump has consistently gotten more male support then hillary does female. Trump has consistently gotten more democrat support then hillary does republican. However there are more democrats overall. Another one, for the first time in the entire election cycle rasmussen has 53% of people who say they will definitely vote siding with trump. Of those saying they will definitely vote on this same poll hillary is only at 43%. Overall the poll has trump at 44, hillary at 42. If you follow fivethirtyfive, there is major lag built into his system as well since he weights together usually weeks worth of polls. Polls have shifted pretty solidly the last week. Based on what five thirty five considers solid atm, but acknowledging that when polls shift so sharply recently as well as the historic 2-4% deficit for the incumbent party and This is easily trumps election. Voter enthusiasm is also historically a major factor. Hillary is hemorrhaging here. Hillary doing poorly with african americans and expecting low turn out while trump is doing slghtly better with minorities then any republican in decades.
heck we have the FBI not only reopening the email case due to new info, which btw we now know what is likely some of the missing emails were found. Because what appear to be classified emails have shown up there that were never handed over the first time. We also have them building an entirely different case on her over pay for play. It generally takes a few days for this type of thing to filter into polling and trump already got a boost from the re opening of the case, now people will here that pay for play they were told was nothing, was in fact a major case were many people are going to likely face charges. We could easily see another 3-10 point shift because we just say more then a 3 point shift. Polls questioning people support for hillary show about 30% of them are considering changing it only based on the re opening of the case not including the pay for play. She could easily go to prison even if she wins. once people realize this? All bets are off.
Dont you think its a bit weird we stopped doing official exit polls the same time machines showed up? Or that we apparently built into our voting system the ability to count with fractions rather then just whole numbers? Or the discrepancies in many elections since we had these machines? There is indeed real reason to question all this.