Silver Speculation and Conjecture

[Cptindy]

It seems to be true but where is the proof?

This question is of main concern for the analytical types whenever an answer is sought. But, is this the right approach?

Proof would relate to hard copy factual information that plainly points one into the right direction. Disseminating all opposition and making the answer plain as day.

A Mathematician may be able to work within a paradigm such as this but an investor needs to be more resourceful and read between the lines. To absorb all information as spoken as well as intention and context is vital to seeing the true intent or direction.

Factual information can be more misleading during the decision making process of a potential investment decision as conjecture. For example; a home on the market is priced below market value and the cost to rehab and bring it to market clearly leaves a nice profit.(on paper) My question, what is going on within this market? What is going on in the surrounding markets? Are there potential changes to the “climate” that may impede or hinder the factually based profit margin?

In the case of the silver market we have many conjectures’ opinion. We have limited yet controlled factual statistics. This makes for an uneasy situation to determine price direction. The facts remain to but a few simple clues. Currently production of silver is barely equal to demand. For the sake of argument we will use a round figure of 950 million troy ounces per annual.

The underlying issue with silver is its industrial/monetary position. To be able to calculate the potential growth in demand as well as production needs to be understood in order to attempt to see the potential rise or fall in value. How does the current production affect the industrial side as well as the monetary/investor? Whom are the parties involved? Industrial use is balancing alongside investor consumption. The act of one or the other affects the playing field and the dynamics involved.

Another thought concerning silver investment, future use. What role is on the horizon for silver beyond its two primary positions today? Will the global market place desire a reversal in silver and call for its use as a currency backer? Will the mere consumption in future technological production continue to grow beyond a conceivable balance between investor and manufacturer?

What we end up with are speculation and conjecture being the process in which a pattern is deciphered. Factual evidence begins the trend but it is the speculators foresight based on conjecture that leads to a potential profit. Those that have the ability to see wine among grapes are the critical components to envisioning the future potential within any environment.

[Copper Catcher]

We live in a world that is not logical and in many instances is driven by emotion versus what the numbers might say. Opinions are treated like facts and some facts are treated like opinions. It would be nice if there were mostly absolutes but that is not how the world works.

[didou]

We live in a world that is not logical and in many instances is driven by emotion versus what the numbers might say. Opinions are treated like facts and some facts are treated like opinions. It would be nice if there were mostly absolutes but that is not how the world works.

Couldn't agree with you more. The main factor here is the human emotion/perception. Everything else is almost irrelevant.

[Market Harmony]

Think Macro, Act Micro

[theo]

What I've noticed is that people tend to act with in their comfort level. With the Dow at 12,000 many think that we are headed back to the good old days where traditional investment strategies (20% Bonds, 30% Large cap, %10 tech etc) were successful. This belief doesn't arise from logical analysis, but perhaps a need to have things "normal" and "stable" again.

As a far facts are concerned I have no idea how much silver is left at the Comex or to what extent (if any) silver is being manipulated. However, I think that there is more than enough solid information to justify investments (silver among them) that hedge against high inflation and a possible currency crisis. For example I recently read that Fed Govenor Kevin Warsh and Bundesbank chief Axel Weber, both opponets of QE programs, are stepping down. If there was any chance of the Fed and ECB reversing their disasterous policies, it just walked out the door with these two.

http://blogs.wsj.com/source/2011/02/14/ ... for-weber/

http://www.nypost.com/p/news/national/f ... &FEEDNAME=

[beauanderos]

I'm not speculating when I buy silver or gold with my worthless fiat... I am merely saving my money in the form of real money. There may be short term gyrations in the price, but regardless of the volatility or its cause, you won't dissuade me from amassing every ounce in any form of silver that I can, as fast as I can. The day will come soon, when silver in any form is as unavailable to small investors (think ebay bidding wars over ten dimes) as is the shortage now beleaguring big money and limiting their entry into this form of safe haven. I think there will be few doubters as to the worth of silver as an investment vehicle or a preserver of purchasing power after you witness the meteoric climb that is about to ensue. I think it's not out of the question we could see triple digit silver by the end of the year as the dollar dies.

[shinnosuke]

I'm not speculating when I buy silver or gold with my worthless fiat... I am merely saving my money in the form of real money. There may be short term gyrations in the price, but regardless of the volatility or its cause, you won't dissuade me from amassing every ounce in any form of silver that I can, as fast as I can. The day will come soon, when silver in any form is as unavailable to small investors (think ebay bidding wars over ten dimes) as is the shortage now beleaguring big money and limiting their entry into this form of safe haven. I think there will be few doubters as to the worth of silver as an investment vehicle or a preserver of purchasing power after you witness the meteoric climb that is about to ensue. I think it's not out of the question we could see triple digit silver by the end of the year as the dollar dies.

Agree completely. I caused one of the clerks at a local coin shop to panic last week. I said to him, "I'm surprised you guys still take my fake money for these coins." He drops the stack of Franklins and says, "What do you mean fake?" To which I replied, "It's just paper that the government says we have to use." How can trading small slips of colored paper too small for wiping one's derriere ever be a bad deal when I walk away with a commodity recognized around the world as having true value? Do I wish I had bought more a few years ago? YES! Will I delay in buying more? NO....HECK NO!