Trump Tariff Thread

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Re: Trump Tariff Thread

Postby Thogey » Mon Oct 22, 2018 8:42 am

Thogey wrote:Your perspective is obvious. You are benefiting from cheap Chinese manufacturing.

So are you, even if you refuse to see it.


We are not just benefiting from it, we a dependent on it. This is the problem. We want it corrected. Like in any war "sacrifices must be made".

Like a baby is benefiting from his mamas tit. It's time to pop it out of our mouths.

You keep implying we wish zero trade with China. Not one man has said that But we should make every effort to completely rip their lips off at every opportunity. Because that is what they want to do with us. I really don't care how much a chinaman makes either. But we do care about us. Because we as us and they are them. That's the way they want it. Like it or not it is the way of the world

Some cannot stomach it. That is a fair position. Tariffs have already set some momentum in our direction, even if you refuse to see it.
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Re: Trump Tariff Thread

Postby johnbrickner » Mon Oct 22, 2018 2:14 pm

I seem to have been missing out on a good debate due to the thread name. Perhaps I should start at the beginning and bring my self up to speed. Then decide to comment . . . yea, like you all want to hear my take on all this. LOLOL
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Re: Trump Tariff Thread

Postby Treetop » Mon Oct 22, 2018 2:22 pm

johnbrickner wrote:I seem to have been missing out on a good debate due to the thread name. Perhaps I should start at the beginning and bring my self up to speed. Then decide to comment . . . yea, like you all want to hear my take on all this. LOLOL



Honestly man I get Trumps 4d chess might have brainwashed me to have an opinion without backing it with reason but Im curious what you think even if you disagree with the god emperor.
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Re: Trump Tariff Thread

Postby Treetop » Mon Oct 22, 2018 2:25 pm

On a side note did you all know "Donald" means "ruler of the world" in Gaelic? (and our prez is the closest any donald got to being ruler of the world so hes the most donald donald)
Last edited by Treetop on Mon Oct 22, 2018 2:34 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Trump Tariff Thread

Postby natsb88 » Mon Oct 22, 2018 2:27 pm

Tourney64 wrote:Adding tariffs is a way of punishing China and making them change their practices of stealing our technology.

Tariffs are a tax paid by American businesses and American consumers. When goods subject to tariffs arrive in the US, CBP assigns/verifies the applicable HTS code for the product, applies the corresponding tariffs/fees, and sends an invoice to the importer. The importer has to pay the tax to get the goods, and has to pass that tax along to their customers. Not a single dime is paid by Chinese companies or the Chinese government.

The basic theory that tariffs will discourage US companies from buying Chinese products is problematic. First, because most American made goods still aren't price competitive vs. imported Chinese finished products, even with a 25% tariff. Second, because many (if not most) American made goods still use at least some components and/or materials from China and the tariffs are increasing their costs, negating (or worse) any price advantage the tariffs might hope to provide. Third, China has already retaliated with tariffs on American exports that amount to roughly half of what the US has proposed so far, and the US is already looking at shelling out additional subsidies to save those industries. Taxing US buyers for some goods and subsidizing other goods is just redistribution of wealth.

None of this helps with protecting US intellectual property. So yet again I ask, how do these tariffs stop China from "stealing our technology?"

Thogey wrote:
Thogey wrote:Your perspective is obvious. You are benefiting from cheap Chinese manufacturing.

So are you, even if you refuse to see it.


We are not just benefiting from it, we a dependent on it. This is the problem. We want it corrected. Like in any war "sacrifices must be made".

We are largely dependent upon growers in tropical climates for pineapples and bananas. Do we need to "correct" that problem too?

Specialization is what drives an economy. Find something you are good at, focus on doing that thing as well and efficiently as you can, and trade that for all the other things you need. This is how it works from individual employment all the way up to global trade. Most people don't mine the limestone and fall the timber to make concrete and lumber for their house, grow and raise every plant and animal they eat, or smelt iron ore and alloy and pour ingots ingots to roll into sheet metal to stamp and assemble into a car. They specialize in something and trade for everything else.

Lots of factors go into what an individual or a region or a country is good at. Personal interests, family history, mental and physical ability. Climate and geography, natural resources, labor resources, government controls... Trying to force people (or regions or countries) into doing things they are less good at results in less efficiency, lower quality, and higher costs. Specialization and free markets allow for the greatest benefits for the largest number of participants. Currently, China is more efficient at manufacturing. If we wish to be a better competitor in this sector, we need to get our own house in order.

Thogey wrote:You keep implying we wish zero trade with China. Not one man has said that But we should make every effort to completely rip their lips off at every opportunity. Because that is what they want to do with us.

Why? What do we gain from ripping their lips off? Are there concrete indications that China is going to physically invade the US or threaten us with nuclear or chemical or biological weapons? If not, we should continue trading with them, without adding arbitrary and unnecessary barriers. “Peace, commerce, and honest friendship with all nations...entangling alliances with none.” Free trade, open travel, communication, and diplomacy. What a soft, liberal, left-wing globalist Thomas Jefferson was, eh?

Thogey wrote:I really don't care how much a chinaman makes either. But we do care about us. Because we as us and they are them. That's the way they want it. Like it or not it is the way of the world

Everybody who isn't us is an enemy? That's a sad outlook. It's too bad that people who seek positions of power tend to think this way. That's part of what brings us a horribly ineffective foreign policy of forceful regime change...I'm sorry, "spreading democracy."

Thogey wrote:Some cannot stomach it. That is a fair position. Tariffs have already set some momentum in our direction, even if you refuse to see it.

Where is the momentum in our direction? Please share. That's what this thread is for.

Treetop wrote:Kept thinking of the thread and wanted to add something else. Nate, you listed a long list of things (regulations etc) that US business needs to content with, most of which isnt true for a place like china. One of my points has been the fact we have those differences is part of why I dont mind tariffs. Using it as a tool for other goals like maybe changing their policy on intellectual property is another. Are you of the opinion we should drop ALL of that? Workers comp... enviro protections... OSHA... uneployment benefits etc etc?? We could certainly do things cheaper if we did that.

Ideally yes, government would not be the entity running these types of things. Private organizations and voluntary unions and industry associations certainly could. The era of the internet makes these types of organizations and agreements more feasible than ever before, and certainly more efficient than entrenched government agencies. Environmental issues are really property rights issues so the government still plays a major justice role there, but we don't need a bloated, wasteful, unaccountable, unelected, weaponized bureaucracy to do it.

Treetop wrote:I even expect if we streamlined all these things we could probably get all the same things done with considerably less money.

Agreed.

Treetop wrote:This is somewhat moot though because I would expect the majority support most of these things.

Also agreed. Unfortunately people have been trained to believe that their government and/or their employer are obligated to take care of them from cradle to grave, and that that is the only way things can possibly work. We've largely lost a sense of individual planning and responsibility in our society.

Treetop wrote:So while all those things are easy to point to for cost savings, they are unlikely to ever be changed. Can we agree that is obvious? or no?

Not if we keep feeding and supporting the two-party system. It would require a meaningful representation of other ideas in congress to have a chance at gaining real support. And we know how hard it is to even get an independent or third party candidate on the debate stage, let alone to a seat in Washington. Both parties have a vested interest in the status quo.

Treetop wrote:Several libertarian mindsets are slowly becoming mainstream but not the idea the markets would solve all those types of issues. We probably have more americans who would vote for stalinism or marxism then that.

If they could bring themselves to actually put in the effort required to vote :lol:
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Re: Trump Tariff Thread

Postby natsb88 » Mon Oct 22, 2018 2:42 pm

Even if we could agree that tariffs on Chinese imports are the best way to incentive domestic manufacturing growth (they still aren't :P ), Trump has targeted exactly the wrong goods and in exactly the wrong order. The first thing (except solar panels and washing machines) he went after was raw materials / minimally manufactured aluminum and steel components. These are what make much of existing US manufacturing feasible. We should take full advantage of affordable imported materials and components to support US manufacturing operations. If you want US finished goods to be more competitive with Chinese finished goods, you need to make materials affordable and imported Chinese finished goods more expensive. The tariffs Trump implemented did exactly the opposite of that. He made imported materials and components more expensive for US manufacturers, which in turn also triggered a rise in the price of domestic materials and components, but left the imported finished products alone or, at the very least, waited months to implement them (and it will be several more before they rise to the level of the raw materials / components tariffs). This does not suggest a well-planned strategy for bringing manufacturing back to the US. It suggests hastily implemented pandering to a handful of US steel and aluminum makers, a midterm publicity stunt for his supporters, and throwing everybody else under the bus.
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Re: Trump Tariff Thread

Postby Treetop » Mon Oct 22, 2018 2:47 pm

I actually agree with that in theory, but I want Us raw materials to still have a market and place even if it means tariffs. Im not even sure Trump agrees with me or hes using it as a tool. For one thing I want all Us arms made here or at minimum countries completely allied to us that we have easy access to during a real war. Including raw materials.
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Re: Trump Tariff Thread

Postby Thogey » Mon Oct 22, 2018 3:29 pm

Nate has changed my mind with these points. I'm switching sides. Because the points are so great.

These are what make much of existing US manufacturing feasible. We should take full advantage of affordable imported materials and components to support US manufacturing operations.


Agree, Maybe we should abandon our raw material production all together and take full advantage of affordable imported materials. Because it's just too expensive here, and China really would like to see our manufacturing prosper.

Where is the momentum in our direction? Please share. That's what this thread is for.


You are right Trump is destroying our momentum and his tariff plans have had zero effect in our direction.

Why? What do we gain from ripping their lips off? Are there concrete indications that China is going to physically invade the US or threaten us with nuclear or chemical or biological weapons? If not, we should continue trading with them, without adding arbitrary and unnecessary barriers. “Peace, commerce, and honest friendship with all nations...entangling alliances with none.” Free trade, open travel, communication, and diplomacy. What a soft, liberal, left-wing globalist Thomas Jefferson was, eh?


Good point Thomas Jefferson would see China's 300 big strategic nukes with 10,000 mile ranges as an expression of peace and good will and not a threat Probably because we sunk the japanese navy and burned the place to the ground so china could exist.

"pineapples and bananas?" Nate has a great point here we have allowed ourselves to become victims of the pineapple (which we did once grow) and banana tyranny, and somehow we are willing to suck it up. We are hypocrites to apply the same posture to steel.

We'll just have to see how history plays out. Nate will most likely be here longer than I will and I hope his experience is as good or better than mine was.

I'm now going to argue with my wife.
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Re: Trump Tariff Thread

Postby natsb88 » Thu Nov 01, 2018 9:46 am

The concept of creative destruction, relevant to this discussion.

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Re: Trump Tariff Thread

Postby natsb88 » Thu Nov 01, 2018 9:50 am

Trump's Auto Tariffs Could Increase Cost of New Cars by $4,400

9/25/18

According to research by the Michigan-based Center for Automotive Research (CAR), 25 percent auto tariffs will cost Americans dearly. How dearly? As a CBS affiliate summarized last week, we can expect:

- 2 million fewer new vehicles sold per year
- Total U.S. employment losses of nearly 714,700 jobs and GDP losses of $59.2 billion
- A loss of 117,500 of 1.1 million U.S. new-car dealership jobs, with the average franchised dealership losing seven jobs
- Increases in the price of the typical vehicle sold in the United States by about $4,400
- An increase in used car prices due to heightened demand and constricted supply Increases in the cost of vehicle maintenance and repair due to higher automotive parts prices “so even holding on to an existing vehicle will become more expensive”

<snip>


https://fee.org/articles/trumps-auto-ta ... -by-4-400/
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Re: Trump Tariff Thread

Postby natsb88 » Thu Nov 01, 2018 9:53 am

GM Offers Buyouts to 18,000 Workers, Months After Warning About Layoffs Over Trump's Tariffs

10/31/18

In an effort to save money, General Motors is reportedly offering buyouts to salaried employees in North America who have 12 or more years of experience.

The voluntary severance program was announced shortly after the company’s third-quarter earnings report where it reported an operating profit of $2.5 billion and 10.2% profit margins in North America, The Detroit News reports.

18,000 employees are reportedly eligible for the offer. They have until Nov. 19 to choose to opt in.

The company has a cost-saving target for the move but has not disclosed that target nor what it is offering employees who decide to opt for the buyout package. After the Nov. 19 deadline, it will evaluate whether layoffs are needed.

In June, GM warned the Trump Administration that its steel tariff might potentially lead to fewer jobs and lower wages for Americans working for car companies in the states. Trump had also suggested imposing a 25% tariff on imported cars, a move analysts thought was intended to pressure Mexico into renegotiating the NAFTA trade pact. At the time, GM said such a move would likely lead it to raise prices or move its manufacturing facilities elsewhere. An aide to President Trump dismissed GM’s concerns as “smoke and mirrors.”


http://fortune.com/2018/10/31/gm-offers ... p-tariffs/
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Re: Trump Tariff Thread

Postby natsb88 » Thu Nov 01, 2018 9:56 am

China Cuts U.S. Soybean Imports by More Than 80% as Tariffs Bite

11/1/18

China, the world’s biggest soybean importer, cut shipments of the oilseed from the U.S. by more than 80 percent in September from a year earlier as retaliatory tariffs imposed as part of the ongoing trade war between the world’s top two economies take their toll.

Inbound cargoes from the U.S. plunged to 132,000 metric tons from 937,000 tons in the same month last year, Bloomberg calculations based on customs data show. China published a country breakdown of imports for the first time since March. The U.S. loss was Brazil’s gain as the world’s top soybean exporter boosted shipments 28 percent to 7.59 million tons, the data show.


https://www.agweb.com/article/china-cut ... iffs-bite/
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Re: Trump Tariff Thread

Postby natsb88 » Thu Nov 01, 2018 9:59 am

China’s LNG Tariffs Are A Tactical Stroke Of Brilliance

10/31/18

<snip>

China is undeniably taking the brunt of the ongoing trade war between Washington and Beijing squarely on the chin. However, its retaliatory tariffs against U.S. LNG imports could arguably be called a tactical stroke of brilliance. China’s gas demand growth is already revolutionizing global LNG markets as it pivots to natural gas in place of dirtier burning coal. The country bypassed South Korea last year to become the world’s second largest LNG importer.

China’s August gas imports (both LNG and pipeline gas) spiked some 37 percent year-on-year, while gas imports in August were up 5.4 over the previous month. In the first eight months of 2018, China has imported 57.18 million mt of gas, up 34.8 percent compared with the same period of 2017.

However, August’s figures are merely a flash in the pan compared to the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) projections. In December, the Paris-based agency said that China's demand for natural gas will continue to soar toward 2040, outstripping domestic output by around 43 percent.

"China's annual gas production will more than double to 340 billion cubic meters in 2040, with shale gas a major contributor, but consumption is foreseen to grow even faster, reaching 600 billion cubic meters," said the China Special Report of the World Energy Outlook 2017.

And, it’s this seemingly insatiable gas demand that gives Beijing leverage with the U.S. As the so-called second wave of U.S. LNG development unfolds, numerous projects will likely not reach the all-important final investment decision (FID) needed to go forward unless they can secure either Chinese funding, Chinese long-term off-take agreements or both. In fact, it’s already starting to happen. On Monday, Australia’s LNG Ltd delayed until next year a planned decision on whether to build its Louisiana-based Magnolia LNG plant due to problems lining up Chinese customers.

“Chinese LNG demand growth is the largest piece of demand growth out there, and Chinese buyers have got to feel reluctant to commit to U.S. capacity when the U.S. government sees trade as a means of exerting political leverage,” said Bob Ineson, managing director of North American natural gas at IHS Markit.

Moreover, China has indicated that it will not sign any more LNG deals until ongoing trade tensions are over. Going forward, newer LNG project developers without the experience or deep pockets of an ExxonMobil, Shell or Cheniere Energy, will be caught holding the bag. Not only could their projects be canceled, but the projection that the US could vie for top LNG exporter status in terms of liquefaction capacity with LNG heavyweights Qatar and Australia may at the end of the day be just a pipe dream.


https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas ... iance.html
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Re: Trump Tariff Thread

Postby natsb88 » Thu Nov 01, 2018 10:05 am

How Trump's Trade War Impacts 12 Bottom Lines

10/30/18

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Re: Trump Tariff Thread

Postby natsb88 » Thu Nov 01, 2018 10:14 am

Agriculture chief says there is no plan to extend aid offsetting tariffs for farmers

10/29/18

Secretary of Agriculture Sonny Perdue on Monday said that the U.S. Department of Agriculture is not planning to extend the up to $12 billion aid package for farmers into 2019.

"Farmers are very resilient and adept in making their planning and marketing decisions based on the current market,” Perdue told reporters, according to Reuters.

<snip>

The Trump administration authorized the up to $12 billion aid package in July to protect farmers from losses caused by tariffs incurred in the midst of several trade disputes between the U.S. and other countries.


https://thehill.com/homenews/administra ... -to-offset
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Re: Trump Tariff Thread

Postby natsb88 » Thu Nov 01, 2018 10:16 am

Mexico, Canada play hardball on trade deal over steel tariffs

10/26/18

Juan Carlos Baker, Mexico’s deputy commerce minister, said Friday that his government may not sign the final text of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement on trade if the U.S. does not agree to provide exemptions to its tariffs on steel and aluminum.

The Trump administration is balking at that demand, however, as its counter-proposal, a quota system, is getting the cold shoulder from both Mexico and Canada, which is also seeking an exemption from the tariffs.

“We believe we need to solve that issue before the signing takes place,” Baker told reporters in Ottawa. The signing has been tentatively set for the end of November.

It was the toughest threat yet from one of the negotiators over the deal that would replace the North American Free Trade Agreement. Mexico and Canada have lobbied the U.S. to lift exemptions to the tariffs, 25 percent for steel and 10 percent for aluminum, arguing that now that the talks for the USMCA deal are complete, there's no need to maintain those tariffs.

The U.S. however has resisted providing the exemptions, fearing that doing so would allow China, the main target of the tariffs, to harm the U.S. steel industry.


https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/poli ... el-tariffs
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Re: Trump Tariff Thread

Postby Sheikh_yer_Bu'Tay » Sun Nov 11, 2018 10:39 am

natsb88 wrote:Serious questions for the pro-tariff guys: Do you have any first-hand experience in starting/owning a manufacturing or manufacturing related business? Or being in a management position in such a company where you could see all of the financials? Have you ever had to source materials and/or components for manufacturing applications? Have you done cost and quality comparisons on imported versus US-made materials and/or components, and how they affect the price point and value and viability of the finished product? Have you ever been responsible for making payroll in an industry that is or will be taking a hit from these tariffs?

I'm not trying to be condescending, though it might sound that way. I'm just trying to learn more about the perspective you guys have on this issue. It's obvious that we are seeing things in a different light, and I want to try to better understand where you are coming from.

I've grown up in a small family business that deals with this stuff. Up until my early 20s I shared much of the "buy US made" and "China is stealing our jobs" and "everything made in China is cheap junk" mentality that you guys are displaying here. But the more I got involved, the more I knew about and became responsible for the numbers, the more domestic companies and manufacturers I work with, the more I see how many US jobs rely upon Chinese products and manufacturing, the more I see the glaring flaws in these overly simplistic sentiments.

Keep in mind that I've sunk a bunch of my own time and money into a website dedicated to battling Chinese-made counterfeit coins and bullion, have run into issues with counterfeits / intellectual property in other areas, and have to compete directly with China for a large segment of our family business. I'm not under any illusion that China is an angel, or even that China generally plays by the rules (they don't). But I deal with all that and still believe the tariffs are poor (and damaging) policy.

Some of the metal products we buy are rising in price now where we are considering making our own again. IF I go back to making simple metal flashings again I can offer better quality via customized fittings instead of a cookie-cutter design that often fails to meet an individual's needs. Also, imported flashings are only offered in five colors. I can offer my customers about 28 colors to choose from. We have done one job thus far (the customer rejected all five colors imported) and they are much happier.
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Re: Trump Tariff Thread

Postby natsb88 » Tue Nov 27, 2018 10:01 pm

Making a set of replacement wear parts for a customer's snow pusher. The cost of the plastic sheet material doubled from last year.
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Re: Trump Tariff Thread

Postby natsb88 » Tue Nov 27, 2018 10:11 pm

We've done a bunch of fab work with 304 stainless angle over the last couple of months. I get material quotes from 2-3 suppliers and go with whoever puts together the best deal, unless delivery time is an issue. Sometimes the material is marked US, sometimes China, often times there are no readable markings. The last batch we got was marked Japan and it was much nicer material than we usually get. Cleaner, nicer surface finish, and straight as an arrow. I don't have any apples-to-apples price data to compare for this specific material, but it's interesting to see the source change.
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Re: Trump Tariff Thread

Postby natsb88 » Tue Nov 27, 2018 10:15 pm

GM Cuts Jobs And Plants To Deal With Changing Tastes And Trump Tariffs

11/26/18

General Motors said today it is ending production next year at five of its plants including its last remaining plant in Detroit and its Lordstown plant in Ohio. The reasons: they largely make sedans, which U.S. car buyers are increasingly rejecting in favor of SUVs; and Trump-era tariffs are creating headwinds and higher costs for the automaker.

Also on the chopping block is a parts plant in Maryland, a transmission plant in suburban Detroit, a Canadian plant in Oshawa, Ontario and a plant in Korea. In all, GM is looking to cut 15% of its global workforce. All the moves are designed to save the company $6 billion in annual costs.

That GM is looking to cut thousands of jobs at a time when the economy is performing well indicates a few realities of the global economy and the future of mobility. Ford, too, is expected to announce huge job cuts this week.

–Many forecasters project that the U.S., the best market for GM and Ford, could see annual sales fall to between 15 million and 15.5 million a year for the next five years or so because of an overheated used car supply, as well as a decline in new-vehicle ownership among consumers 20-32.

–GM, like most other car companies, is readying their operations and employee headcount for a rise in mobility usage, rather than vehicle ownership–ride-hailing services like Uber and Lyft; increasing moves to city centers where consumers don’t want to own vehicles; burgeoning businesses around autonomous driving fleets that will have costs competitive with car ownership. “We are right-sizing capacity for the realities of the marketplace,” Chief Executive Mary Barra said, adding that GM will double resources dedicated to electric and self-driving vehicles over the next two years.

–A shift in consumer tastes away from sedans, which many plants are geared to produce, to plants that build crossovers SUVs. Ford and FCA, too, have announced they are phasing out sedans.

–Higher costs, due in part to the Trump administration steel tariffs, have already cost GM $1 billion, and those costs will persist and rise as long as they are in place.

<snip>


https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidkiley ... riffs/amp/
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Re: Trump Tariff Thread

Postby natsb88 » Tue Nov 27, 2018 10:18 pm

Tariffs could cost American households $2,400 each in 2019, a new study warns

11/26/18

Tariffs stemming from President Trump's trade conflicts could cost Americans $915 each, or $2,400 per household, in the form of higher prices, lower wages and lower investment returns in 2019, according to a new study.

If the tariffs stay in place, the study says, the losses would add up to $17,300 per household by 2030.

The study, commissioned by the lobbying shop for Koch Industries and conducted by consulting firm ImpactECON, looked at the potential cumulative impact of tariffs.

The conservative Koch political network has argued against the Trump administration's protectionist trade policies.

The new study comes as Trump prepares to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping at this week's G-20 meeting, amid the U.S.-China trade standoff. The Koch-commissioned study assumes that the administration's steel and aluminum tariffs and quotas remain, as well as retaliatory tariffs U.S. trade partners have put in place.

It also assumes a 25 percent tariff on all imports from China and retaliation. It factors in a 25 percent tariff on all imports of autos and auto parts and retaliation, exempting Canada and Mexico since they have negotiated that in the new U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade agreement to replace NAFTA.

"Any trade debate should convey a clear understanding of the effect of the U.S.' and its trading partners' actions on consumers, businesses and supply chains," said Philip Ellender, Koch Industries president of government and public affairs. "At Koch, we support free and open exchange as a means to help people improve their lives. To that end, this report should serve as a unique and useful resource for policymakers as they consider the consequences of trade actions for all parties involved."

The study predicts steep long-term job losses. While strong economic growth in the U.S. initially will protect workers from job losses, the tariffs will lead to the loss of 2.75 million American jobs, the study predicts. Low-skilled workers in agricultural and manufacturing jobs would be hit the hardest under this scenario. In addition, the study figures an additional 700,000 workers will lose jobs but be able to find work in other industries.

Meanwhile, the study expects the tariffs to sap $365 billion from U.S. GDP next year. Overall, it expects GDP losses to total $2.8 trillion from 2019 to 2030.

<snip>

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2018/11/26/tar ... study.html
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Re: Trump Tariff Thread

Postby natsb88 » Tue Nov 27, 2018 10:19 pm

Tesla Feels the Burn of Tariffs, Solving the China Sales Slump Will Be Tough

11/27/18

Retaliatory tariffs on cars coming into China initially were thought to maybe hurt Telsa Inc. (TSLA) . It's clear now that they have.

Tesla's sales in China sank 70% year over year in October, according to China Passenger Car Association, Reuters reported. Tesla said the 70% number was inaccurate, although it seems clear that a 40% tariff on U.S. autos coming into China most certainly will hurt sales materially.

Tesla didn't not immediately respond for additional comment from TheStreet.

Shares slipped as much as 2.24% Tuesday, but closed out the day down just 0.60% to $343.92 a share.

Solving the sales slump in China won't be easy for Tesla, which relied on China for 17% of its revenue in 2017.

<snip>

https://www.thestreet.com/amp/markets/t ... d-14792864
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Re: Trump Tariff Thread

Postby natsb88 » Tue Nov 27, 2018 10:22 pm

Tariffs make U.S. bourbon an endangered species in European bars

11/21/18

Small U.S. bourbon producers are finding that European drinkers love their products. It's those tariffs that don't go down so smoothly.

Following the European Union's June implementation of a 25 percent tariff on bourbon, the popular U.S. whiskey variety, the impact has been clear. One American producer said his exports have "dropped to zero" as a result. Last year, they made up 15 percent of revenue.

"Every U.K. buyer backed off," said Paul Hletko, the owner of Evanston-based Few Spirits. "They may want to buy it, but if they can't sell it at the right price, that's not doing us any favors."

Small distillers cite the drought as proof their fears of a global trade war are coming to fruition. Europe had been blossoming as a source of new revenue — but this market has been effectively cut off for producers that lack the clout or brand recognition of titans like Brown-Forman and Diageo. Now they've been sent back to square one.

The tariffs, which target U.S. goods such as Levi Strauss & Co. blue jeans and Harley Davidson motorcycles, are the EU's retaliation to President Donald Trump's duties on foreign steel and aluminum.

Hletko said the low six figures he's made this year from international orders all were booked before the tariffs' imposition. Meanwhile, Rob Cassell, the owner of Philadelphia-based New Liberty Distillery, said European buyers have dissolved.

"Everybody shops by price," Cassell said. "If your product before was 25 euros ($28.51) a bottle and all of a sudden it's 35, but nothing's changed, that's not the same great buy for you that it was before."

Spiros Malandrakis, head of alcoholic drinks research at Euromonitor, said that the tariffs have stunted the growth of bourbon in Western Europe. Consumers will likely go to new whiskies from countries such as Canada or Sweden, or drink something else, while big players like Brown-Forman's Jack Daniels will find ways to absorb the additional costs — a luxury that smaller, upstart companies don't have.

"Taxation and trade issues do play a role in drinking habits," Malandrakis said. "It will be the smaller craft manufacturers that will start taking the biggest hits."

<snip>

https://www.chicagotribune.com/business ... y,amp.html
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Re: Trump Tariff Thread

Postby natsb88 » Tue Nov 27, 2018 10:25 pm

U.S. Steel: 8 Months After The Tariffs

11/27/18

U.S. Steel was able to raise steel prices 10% in Q2, increasing revenue by 15%, operating profit by 38%, and raising its full-year profit guidance for 2018 more than triple.

In the meantime, shares of U.S. Steel have lost close to 30% in 2018.

Between U.S. tariffs and the retaliatory tariffs, the entire U.S. steel consumption is being “taxed” by an additional 25%.

In light of increased steel cost, about 21,000 US companies have filed for tariff exclusions. It is estimated that tariffs against China alone could cost 134,000 US jobs. Steel and aluminum tariffs could cost 470,000 jobs.

Investors appear to pick up the clue of an emerging recession on its way. U.S. Steel’s stock has been trading 30% below its significantly improved fundamental level.

In February of this year, President Trump announced a 25% tariff on import steel in order to “boost American industries and correct unfair trade practices by other countries.” Among many supporters, Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said. "When you're thinking about the overall economy, it's not just the trivial increase in product prices, it's also the increase in employment and the strength of the economy overall.” For the first few months, the President’s plan seems working. Steel imports fell 34% from April to June, prompting job growth. U.S. Steel restarted facilities in Granite City, Illinois, which accounts for 800 jobs. Prices of its US-made steel rose 5% to 10% in Q2 and shipments increased revenue by 15%. The company also reported its second quarter operating profit rose 38% and raised its full-year profit guidance. It expects profit for 2018 to more than triple.

However, if you think that U.S. Steel, the obvious beneficiary of the 25% steel tariff, has been better off because of the tariff, you will be proved wrong. Briefly after gaining about 25% due to the tariffs announcement, shares of U.S. Steel have lost close to 30% year to date, compared with a basically flat S&P 500.

<snip>

https://seekingalpha.com/article/422477 ... hs-tariffs
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Re: Trump Tariff Thread

Postby natsb88 » Tue Nov 27, 2018 10:30 pm

Tariffs and their Impact on Maine’s Lobster Industry

11/21/18

<snip>

In the last ten years Maine’s lobster industry has strengthened its ties with China. In the year 2010 a few hundred tons of American lobster entered the Chinese market and by the year 2017 exports had reached close to 7,500 tons. In 2017 China imported approximately $130 billion dollars from the U.S, of which about $132 million represented exports of Maine lobster (frozen and live). This relationship is now in jeopardy as a result of the rising tariffs being imposed on Maine lobsters (25% as of July, 2018). With the tariffs being imposed, China may be forced to buy more of their lobster supply from Canada.

Currently 51 percent of the North American lobster market is controlled by Canada; with the twenty-five percent tariff increase that China imposed on U.S. lobsters that percentage is expected to rise. It has become harder for the Chinese importers to do business with their American wholesalers. In addition to tariffs, Chinese Customs has made things more difficult for importers by requiring more paperwork and stringent regulations than they had previously. Unfortunately, these tariffs are not the only ones affecting the Maine lobster fisheries.

In the escalating trade war between the United States and China tariffs on aluminum and steel have risen. This causes the costs of equipment essential to their operations such lobster traps, steel lined rope, and fabricated parts to rise. All these factors take a toll on their revenue stream which also has a ripple effect throughout the local economy. This is devastating for the state’s economy considering that lobster fisheries infuse approximately $1 billion into the Maine economy each year.

<snip>

https://glocal.bangordailynews.com/2018 ... -industry/
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