Do you think silver will drop below 20 per oz?

[Thogey]

I think it will. But I don't think it will stay there long. This silver pop seems to be fueled by money printing and not speculation.

I do think Trump will be re-elected. Money will flow back into stocks. There will be infrastructure spending (borrowing) It seems like bonds are dead, money is so cheap


What do you think?

[68Camaro]

Quite possible - as far as paper silver but in my view likely on physical silver only if the price stays down for an extended period. A short term drop in price for physical is not impossible either. But the trends enforcing continued upward pressure on price (deficit spending, pressure on US $, international tensions, domestic tensions, general inflation leading to higher mining costs, increasingly depleted mines, etc) don't seem to be going away. I've been willing to flip in and out of assets classes to make a short term profit on what I thought was a market overreaction (such as the stock drop in March) but the metal market is quite fickle and dangerous to time. So while I will watch, I don't have any plans to execute any flips at this time.

[coppernickel]

I don't think silver drop below $20 again. I also don't think gold will drop below $1800.

[Recyclersteve]

If the market drops sharply over the course of say, 3-5 business days, I definitely think silver could go below $20 for a short amount of time. And even though it would be a short amount of time, maybe it bottoms at something like $18-18.50- just pulling that number out of thin air without looking at all types of charts. My point is that when there is panic the low can be much lower than what is reasonable, but it is often a panic situation that doesn't last long.

Keep in mind that there are likely some big time traders with very deep pockets who are VERY bullish on silver, which is great. Unfortunately, when they use margin a lot, they may have margin calls where they have no choice but to sell a good portion of their silver holdings. The other choice (bring in extra cash) almost never occurs as these types of traders are aggressive by nature. If they had cash to bring into the account, they would have done it before. If they try to stall their broker by saying "C'mon, you know it will be up in the next few days", their broker may actually sell their holdings for them without notice, which the broker has every right to do.

This actually creates a decent short-term trade for those who embrace wild volatility. On days when the market is down a lot (let's say 3% or more on the Dow) and it has been down a lot for, say, 3 consecutive days or more, the margin selling will often stop around 1 1/2 to 2 (maybe 2 1/2) hours before market close. You could see a day where the Dow is down 1,200 pts. mid-day and finishes the day down "only" 300-400 points. Those are days where I like to step up and buy, fully embracing the volatility which could continue to go against me. I don't dare us all my ammunition with the first purchase. I am fully ready to buy more if the market keeps going down. Usually this ends up being a pretty decent trade that takes anywhere from a few hours to 1-2 weeks to work. I've known about this type of trade for probably 20 years or more and it works well a lot. Then, a number of years back, I remember Jim Cramer of CNBC basically saying the same thing!

But the panic selling creates nice opportunities. As such, I have open orders (Good Til Cancelled types that last for up to 60 days or until filled) to buy silver (actually the SLV ETF) if it gets "too cheap". I will say that below $20 for spot silver (even lower for SLV) would be too cheap IMHO. If I bought when silver hit something like $19.75/oz., I still could be $1-2 away from the absolute bottom, but might not miss it by more than a day or two. That's how wild I think it could be! I look forward to those types of days. Bring 'em on!!!

Caveat about trading SLV: I've said this many times on this fine site, but there are people out there (like famed silver expert Ted Butler) who openly question that J.P. Morgan has the correct amount of silver in the London vault to justify the market cap of SLV. In other words, he feels they are double counting a number of bars- I've seen photos from years ago. Also, he says a number of the bars came from parts of the world that often provide counterfeits. This potential scandal that is brewing has been brewing probably 10 years or more. If and when JPM comes clean and says an audit shows there holdings are, say 40% less than what they thought they were, your holdings in SLV stock would get annihilated. On the other hand, real physical silver could go UP sharply at the same time. I am fully prepared for this if it happens.

[Cu Penny Hoarder]

If it does, stack em up!

[franklin]

After a Biden win and Dems taking the Senate, I think Silver will skyrocket faster than we have ever seen.

[Morsecode]

Down $1.67 right this moment, after a nice weekend bump.

Peoples, if the gods believe a Biden/Harris administration is going to bode well for debt management, the dollar, and the economy generally, something is very wrong in Denmark.

When this question of falling below $20 was first posed Trump was expected to romp his way to an easy re-election. And if (when) that happened I thought maybe silver could dip back to $18, Trump being Trump and what not.

I assumed any slightest whiff of the Sniffer getting anywhere near the White House would send metals into a buying panic that would put the gun buying panic to shame.

Or is this yet again the usual Mon morning smackdown?

[Changechecker]

I should have warned everyone that it would drop today. I made a significant purchase this past weekend. I can wait as I agree this was a knockdown so big players can realign their portfolios before the Biden capital gains tax increases.

[68Camaro]

10% of the drop is increase in USD - most of the rest is overreaction from people selling paper PMs to buy the market rally. Maybe some manipulation mixed in - hidden in the math.

[Cu Penny Hoarder]

I should have warned everyone that it would drop today. I made a significant purchase this past weekend. I can wait as I agree this was a knockdown so big players can realign their portfolios before the Biden capital gains tax increases.

That's why you should only buy on dips. There's ALWAYS another opportunity.

[68Camaro]

We had a nearly decade long "dip" with silver having trouble breaking above $16 even for a moment, yet people were resistant to buying at $14 or $15. Now it's back in the 20s and people are frantic to buy.... Gotta love human psychology.

[Cu Penny Hoarder]

10% of the drop is increase in USD - most of the rest is overreaction from people selling paper PMs to buy the market rally. Maybe some manipulation mixed in - hidden in the math.

Does it really matter why the price went down? For those who are buyers, PM price slam downs are great (often amazing) buying opportunities.

The ultimate buying opp was when it dumped to $12 in March. While most were watching it drop and complaining, I was maxing out credit cards to get all I could before premiums took off. I posted here for ppl to buy while it was dumping, but hardly anyone seemed very interested. Funny how there was a buying frenzy when Ag was $35-49 in early 2011. At the 2011 peak, bullion dealers were paying sellers above spot just to get product to sell. Fear and greed are certainly the most reckless of human emotions.

[68Camaro]

Noticed you edited your post from "no one" to "hardly anyone" - glad you remembered.

[Cu Penny Hoarder]

Noticed you edited your post from "no one" to "hardly anyone" - glad you remembered.

Accuracy and honesty is important

[Recyclersteve]

We had a nearly decade long "dip" with silver having trouble breaking above $16 even for a moment, yet people were resistant to buying at $14 or $15. Now it's back in the 20s and people are frantic to buy.... Gotta love human psychology.

+1

[thecrazyone]

After a Biden win and Dems taking the Senate, I think Silver will skyrocket faster than we have ever seen.

So when can we expect this to start?

[68Camaro]

After a Biden win and Dems taking the Senate, I think Silver will skyrocket faster than we have ever seen.

So when can we expect this to start?

Street price is at $40 - how much faster do you want it go?

[Silver4face]

I think it will because I expect wild fluctuations throughout the next few years

[Thogey]

Let's review

[shinnosuke]

Let's review

The main thing I've learned in the past 10 years is that I am wrong more often than I'm right. Still, I keep on doing the same thing (stacking) and watching for a different outcome.

[Morsecode]

Let's review

Perhaps it's time to start asking where spot metals would be were it not for crypto sucking all the oxygen out of the room. Seems to be the fashionable hedge against fiat/inflation/general doom these days. Not even a blip on the crystal ball 10 years ago, they have turned the world upside down. Or downside up, maybe.

Nothing would surprise me anymore...not even $8 silver.

[IdahoCopper]

When the Everything Bubble pops, everything will slump lower. Stocks, bonds, crypto, PMs; because all the leveraged punters will be desperately selling Everything to try and avoid losing Everything.

The assets that begin to recover value first should be PMs and perhaps crypto.

Holding a lot of dry powder in this inflationary time is not ideal, but may be wise so you can BTFD.

[Silver4face]

Unfortunately the bubble is going to crash as mentioned above. It will be depressing to see everything greatly diminished inc silver. By the way, silver was down to 21.99 on Thursday. That is only TWO dollars from the 20 dollar threshold that started this thread.

[68Camaro]

As I am typing this I have a tab open to the APMEX site to see what street prices of bar silver are like - since, quite frankly, I haven't paid attention a lot to this since I don't care about price at the current state of events. So I had to inform myself on current state of the street. 0.999 bars are going for about $26/oz (a few cents less for pre-sales or larger bars). Give or take a couple of cents, and that's a $2.80 premium to spot. The premium is a bit high for bars, but not ridiculous, so the market seems to have settled down for the moment after the hysterics of the past 18 months. Nevertheless that means the "real" price of silver is $26/oz, minimum. ASEs are around $32 for 2021s. Random year ASEs are >$31. A hefty premium.

So... I don't pay attention to the minor ups and downs. I pay attention to the real street price. What is the lowest that anyone has seen 0.999 sell for on RC in the past 2 years? I could have missed a deal, but I don't recall anything below $25. Not a lot below $30. Anyone selling now at these prices? I doubt it.

And this conversation really misses the whole point. Why are most of us (most, not all) buying hard assets? Not to flip, but to preserve wealth across the chaos of change. We are at a turning point of chaotic change - couldn't be a better time to have and hold hard assets than now.

[Silver4face]

68 Camaro - all of your points are spot on. I'm just wondering if the intent of this thread was referring to "coinflation" price or street price. Coin dealers and other resellers often pay based on the coinflation price which is obviously lower than street price. Therefore, will the coinflation price drop below 20? Probably yes. Will the street price drop below 20? Probably not. Again, excellent point(s) you make.