Signs of inflation?

[JadeDragon]

https://www.cnn.com/2021/04/13/economy/ ... ion-march/? Seeing some inflationary signs as governments continue to shovel out free money like crazy. What are you experiencing?

[stas3000]

On the business side, freight costs (domestic and int'l) are not looking good and have not been pretty for the last 6 months or so. Plus there are logistical nightmares but I don't want to go there. Raw material prices from copper to steel to lumber have jumped. All of that is from folks at various businesses either I work at or I have contacts at.

On the consumer side, shipping costs have been relatively unchanged. Some hardware store prices have gone up, i.e. wood. Gasoline is up. Food prices have moved up a bit too: both at grocery stores and restaurants. All of this based on my US experience where my salary is, sadly, not tied to inflation. I imagine in countries with weaker currencies it's worse, if not a lot worse.

Based on official US government stats, inflation was 3.53% annualized most recently if you go Mar vs Sep...
September 2020 CPI-U = 260.280
March 2021 CPI-U = 264.877

[Recyclersteve]

A rather obscure item is supposedly gonna get real expensive due to a fire at a key manufacturing facility.

Pool chlorine tablets are supposedly gonna spike sharply (and are already up significantly) because of a fire at a Lake Charles, LA plant by the name of BioLab. The fire was caused by a hurricane late last summer.

Also, I’m noticing many restaurants have significantly raised prices over the past year.

[68Camaro]

Many prices are up. Building materials up sharply (like doubled or more on many things like lumber, roofing materials, etc)

Some rise is due to increased demand with industry restarting and stocks low, but it's more than that.

[coppernickel]

Many prices are up. Building materials up sharply (like doubled or more on many things like lumber, roofing materials, etc)

Some rise is due to increased demand with industry restarting and stocks low, but it's more than that.

2x4s nearly triple the from the last time I bought them in 2019.

[Changechecker]

Real Estate is exploding. Bid 189,000. On a house that was assessed at $139,000.
It sold for $250,000.
Around me houses are selling way above ask, even when ask is more than assessed.
Average days on market seems to be about three days. Incredible amount of cash closing offers. Can't remember seeing this in my lifetime.

[TXSTARFIRE]

I read that there will be a tire shortage due to lack of availability of natural rubber. That should make the prices go up.

[Lemon Thrower]

Lots of groceries are coming in much smaller packages. Its pretty difficult to find a half gallon of ice cream these days, most are 3 pints.

Gas is up 25% since Bidet where I live.

Restaurant and dry cleaning costs are up 50-100%.

Coffee at Costco is unchanged for about 10 years now - that won't last.

Real estate is nuts - but I bought a much bigger house in December so I'm going to ride this rocketship to the moon. I'm out in the distant burbs where everyone from the city wants to move to.

I need to buy a new lawnmower. Last time I bought one (15 years ago) it cost $199. Same model is $319 now.

[JadeDragon]

Saw an article about the little pearls in bubble tea going up in price. Sounds small but it impacts a lot of restaurants in Vancouver. Blaming covid manufacturing issues and transport delays.

Gas is back to precovid levels. I assume building materials are up but can’t prove it.

[68Camaro]

Had to do a search on tea bubbles! Ha!

Half US gallon 64 fluid oz bottles of certain brands of citrus juice have mysteriously shrunk to 52 oz containers that look just like the old ones until you compare them to other things that haven't shrunk.

[JadeDragon]

Buffett and Berkshire on inflation. They are seeing price increases on raw materials and they are raising prices and it is being accepted. Very interesting comments. https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=7t7qfOyQdQA

[Recyclersteve]

. I need to buy a new lawnmower. Last time I bought one (15 years ago) it cost $199. Same model is $319 now.

Why buy a new lawn mower when you can often get a used one for free? Take advantage of those who need to have the newest most deluxe brands of everything or who no longer want to mow their own lawns. I just saw a lawn mower sitting by the curb for free a few days ago. It even had a sign on it saying that it still works. Instead, I took the fancy $200 ceiling fan with a sign saying it still works.

To find a bunch of free stuff in your area- if you are in a decent sized city/metro area, you can try Craigslist. I’ve seen some very nice stuff on there over the years!

[Recyclersteve]

Buffett and Berkshire on inflation. They are seeing price increases on raw materials and they are raising prices and it is being accepted. Very interesting comments. https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=7t7qfOyQdQA

I went to the Berkshire annual meeting in May, 2017. It was a bucket list thing for me. Yeah, I know “Buffett was on the bucket list!” Has an interesting ring to it. I know this year’s meeting was virtual and that Omaha isn’t exactly the most touristy place to travel, but this is quite a show. HIGHLY RECOMMENDED!

Sorry to stray off topic. I do think that when Buffett says he is raising prices, MANY WILL FOLLOW.

One notable case where the price hasn’t gone up in ages is the hot food served at Costco. I get a foot long hot dog, very large slice of pizza and a large drink for something like $3.59. What a deal! Now if Costco raises this price, that will be a really bad sign.

[Aghead]

A tube of Ritz crackers is 1" shorter.
Oddly, Saltines seem to not have changed for years.

[Corsair]

A tube of Ritz crackers is 1" shorter.
Oddly, Saltines seem to not have changed for years.

There's a "square peg in a round hole" joke in here somewhere...

[Aghead]

A tube of Ritz crackers is 1" shorter.
Oddly, Saltines seem to not have changed for years.

There's a "square peg in a round hole" joke in here somewhere...

[Recyclersteve]

.

[Recyclersteve]

. Real estate is nuts - but I bought a much bigger house in December so I'm going to ride this rocketship to the moon... I need to buy a new lawnmower. Last time I bought one (15 years ago) it cost $199. Same model is $319 now.

Two things-

even if you sell a house for a ridiculous price, you still need a place to live. So you’d likely have to pay a ridiculous price to buy another. If you are downsizing (like a retired person perhaps) or selling off one of several homes you own, that could work. But for many it won’t.

The price of the lawn mower went up about 4% per year, which isn’t that bad. If you factor in the compounding effect, it went up even less than that. It sounds a lot worse because it went from a 1-handle to a 3-handle number- so some might casually think it tripled.

[Recyclersteve]

The subject of inflation has made the cover of Barron’s this week. I consider them to be very credible and often a voice of reason when others (like politicians) have agendas.

[IdahoCopper]

The trick is to sell just before the housing bubble pops, rent for a while, then buy a distressed price house with the cash from your sale.

I wish I could time events that well.

Good luck to us all.

[knibloe]

. Real estate is nuts - but I bought a much bigger house in December so I'm going to ride this rocketship to the moon... I need to buy a new lawnmower. Last time I bought one (15 years ago) it cost $199. Same model is $319 now.

Two things-

even if you sell a house for a ridiculous price, you still need a place to live. So you’d likely have to pay a ridiculous price to buy another. If you are downsizing (like a retired person perhaps) or selling off one of several homes you own, that could work. But for many it won’t.

I heard there may be as many as 12 million homes that need to be forclosed on, but cannot due to the federal eviction ban. Once the ban expires, they will flood the market. I think it will become a buyers marker then. Anybody else heard the same?

[Thogey]

Watch how fast they homeowers pay up when the ban expires.

[Recyclersteve]

:lol: Watch how fast they homeowers pay up when the ban expires.

Some will do that no question. But those who are heavily indebted who are unable to recoup lost monies from tenants are likely to file quite a few bankruptcies.

We tried to buy a modest home after the 2008-09ish collapse. Prices were down a lot. We have (and had) excellent credit, but were shocked to find it to difficult/nearly impossible to get a loan. We then said “To hell with it- we’ll pay cash.” We use it as a rental and it has worked out great.

[Recyclersteve]

The trick is to sell just before the housing bubble pops, rent for a while, then buy a distressed price house with the cash from your sale.

I wish I could time events that well.

Good luck to us all.

In many areas I would be shocked if RIGHT NOW doesn’t turn out to be a good time to sell.

[JadeDragon]

Almost impossible to find rental homes in Greater Vancouver. If you do find something expect to be kicked out when the house is sold. Bad idea to sell and rent something around here.