by shinnosuke » Tue Sep 02, 2025 6:10 pm
Followed up with Grok:
Me: Wasn't there a significant gold ore discovery in El Salvador recently?
Grok: Yes, in late 2024, El Salvador's President Nayib Bukele announced that the country potentially holds gold reserves valued at $3 trillion, claiming it could have the densest gold deposits per square kilometer globally, located in the Pacific Ring of Fire. He cited a study (not publicly released) suggesting that just 4% of the identified gold-rich area contains 50 million ounces, worth about $131.5 billion, or 380% of El Salvador’s GDP. However, these claims are debated. Dr. Steven Emerman, a hydrogeology expert, argues that the $3 trillion estimate is inconsistent with global gold reserve data, as it would represent 60% of the world’s total reserves, despite El Salvador’s small size and limited historical gold production.This announcement coincided with El Salvador’s Congress voting on December 23, 2024, to lift a 2017 ban on metallic mining, which had been enacted to protect water resources from pollution. The new law allows mining outside nature reserves and sensitive watersheds, banning toxic mercury but requiring private companies to partner with the government. Environmentalists and the Catholic Church oppose this, citing risks of cyanide contamination and ecosystem damage, especially to the Lempa River, critical for San Salvador’s water supply. Bukele argues that “modern, sustainable” mining could fund environmental cleanup and economic growth, but critics like Archbishop José Luis Escobar Alas argue there’s no such thing as “green mining,” pointing to health risks like kidney and respiratory issues.Regarding your original question about gold mining output: El Salvador’s potential reserves could significantly impact global production if mined, but the current lack of large-scale operations means it hasn’t yet affected the 2,500–3,000 metric tons of annual global output. The feasibility of extraction depends on unproven technologies like thiosulfate or bioleaching, as cyanide remains the most effective but environmentally risky method.
Me: Are there any other recent relatively large discoveries that would be less fraught with issues?
Grok: Recent large gold discoveries that are less fraught with environmental, geopolitical, or technical issues are limited, as most major finds face challenges like regulatory hurdles, ecological concerns, or complex extraction processes. However, a few discoveries stand out as potentially less problematic based on available data, though each still has some caveats. Below are notable examples from 2022–2025, with an emphasis on those in stable jurisdictions or with favorable mining conditions:María Geralda, Suriname (2025) Details: Founders Metals reported a high-grade gold discovery with a 22.5-meter intercept grading 11.88 g/t at María Geralda in Suriname. This deposit shows potential for both bulk minable zones and high-grade underground targets, with a 60 km drill budget planned for 2025 to confirm its scale.
Why Less Fraught?: Suriname has a relatively stable mining environment compared to other regions, with established operations like Rosebel and Merian contributing to 60% of the country’s GDP. The government is refining guidelines to balance growth with biodiversity and Indigenous land rights, suggesting a structured regulatory framework. High-grade ore (11.88 g/t) means less waste rock and potentially lower environmental impact compared to low-grade deposits requiring extensive processing.
Caveats: The deposit’s full extent is unconfirmed, and Suriname’s history of informal placer mining raises concerns about enforcing sustainable practices. Commodity price cycles could also affect economic viability.
Bankan Project, Guinea (2022) Details: Predictive Discovery upgraded its inferred resource estimate for the Bankan Project in Guinea’s Siguiri Basin to 4.2 million ounces at 1.63 g/t, making it West Africa’s largest maiden resource discovery since 2012. The project includes NE Bankan (72.3 million tons at 1.65 g/t) and Bankan Creek (7.2 million tons at 1.43 g/t).
Why Less Fraught?: Guinea has an established gold mining sector, and the project’s scale suggests economic viability without the extreme environmental risks associated with, for example, cyanide-heavy processing in sensitive watersheds (like El Salvador’s Lempa River). The deposit’s grade is moderate, reducing the need for massive waste rock displacement.
Caveats: Guinea’s political stability is less certain than Suriname’s, with occasional governance issues that could complicate permitting. Artisanal mining in the region also poses social and environmental challenges.
Tichka-Est Gold Project, Morocco (2022) Details: Stellar AfricaGold discovered a gold-mineralized structure (Zone C) at Tichka-Est, 80 km southeast of Marrakech, adding 1,000 strike meters to previously identified zones, with grades between 3.58 g/t and 5.81 g/t.
Why Less Fraught?: Morocco is a stable jurisdiction with a mining-friendly government and established infrastructure. The project’s location in a mountain pass, away from major urban water sources, reduces the risk of contamination controversies seen in places like El Salvador. Moderate grades suggest manageable extraction without extreme environmental disruption.
Caveats: The deposit is still in early exploration, and its total resource size remains uncertain. Remote locations may require infrastructure investment, potentially raising costs.
Comparison to El Salvador’s Discovery:
El Salvador’s claimed $3 trillion gold reserve, potentially containing 50 million ounces, is massive but fraught with issues: environmental risks to the Lempa River, skepticism about the reserve’s scale (60% of global reserves in a small area seems implausible), and reliance on unproven “sustainable” mining technologies like thiosulfate. Additionally, El Salvador’s recent reversal of its mining ban and geopolitical tensions add complexity. In contrast, the Suriname, Guinea, and Morocco discoveries benefit from more stable or mining-friendly jurisdictions, smaller scales that reduce environmental scrutiny, and grades that suggest efficient extraction. However, none match El Salvador’s potential size, which, if verified, would dwarf even China’s recent 1,000-metric-ton discovery in Hunan (valued at $83 billion).
Why Large Discoveries Are Generally Fraught:
Large gold deposits often face issues because: Environmental Impact: High-grade deposits (like China’s 138 g/t) require less ore processing, but large-scale mining still generates waste rock and tailings, risking water contamination.
Geopolitical Risks: Many deposits are in regions with unstable governments (e.g., Guinea) or contentious policies (e.g., El Salvador’s mining ban reversal).
Economic Viability: Declining discovery rates (only five major finds since 2020, adding 17 million ounces) and smaller average sizes (3.5 million ounces vs. 5.5 million in 2010–2019) mean new projects face high costs and long development timelines.
Peak Gold Concerns: With 244,000 metric tons of gold discovered globally and an estimated 57,000 metric tons in reserves, new finds like Suriname’s or Guinea’s are critical but insufficient to significantly boost the 2,500–3,000 metric tons mined annually.
Conclusion: The María Geralda discovery in Suriname appears the least fraught due to its high-grade ore, stable jurisdiction, and potential for lower environmental impact. Morocco’s Tichka-Est is also promising for its political stability and moderate scale. Guinea’s Bankan Project is significant but carries more geopolitical risk. None of these discoveries are expected to dramatically shift global gold production in the near term, as they are still in exploration or early development, unlike El Salvador’s, which faces substantial environmental and verification hurdles. If you’d like me to dig deeper into any specific discovery or analyze related data, let me know!
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