Rodebaugh wrote:Thanks for the heads up on AGQ Ray.
DeanStockwell wrote:I will advise against investing in AGQ, or any other leveraged etf for the long term(over 2 or 3 months). You'd be better off investing in SLV. Be aware and make an educated decision after reading the below article.
Source: http://seekingalpha.com/article/129257- ... raged-etfs
beauanderos wrote:DeanStockwell wrote:I will advise against investing in AGQ, or any other leveraged etf for the long term(over 2 or 3 months). You'd be better off investing in SLV. Be aware and make an educated decision after reading the below article.
Source: http://seekingalpha.com/article/129257- ... raged-etfs
I have to disagree, Dean. The article cited refers to leveraged INVERSE ETF's and, for those entities, does make some sense in regards to exercising caution. AGQ is actually ideal for playing the price rise of silver and adding an extra boost of rocket fuel. As the ETF resets on a daily basis, it actually outperforms double the price rise. When da boyz attack silver, what happens? It plunges rapidly, for a day or two. Yes, at those times you can experience terrifying losses with AGQ, but if you don't set stops you can ride it out and surpass the previous highs. When silver recovers, it usually doesn't surge... it moves twenty or thirty cents a day... UPWARDS. Several days in a row... with the "reset" occuring each day. When you return to the same spot price as before, AGQ will more than likely be higher than it was before the plunge. Do you think silver is going to keep rising? I know you don't, but you can't convince me that an ETF that I bought for mid-$40's range in February last year, not even fifteen months ago, and has now risen over 755%, is a bad bet. Silver thrives on all of the crap the FED is pulling... and that isn't going to change. AGQ is my largest holding, weighted about 65% of my portfolio, and I am extremely happy with it. I have two funds that hold nothing but AGQ... and they are up 115% so far this year. I'm not getting off this train for a long time. Do your own due diligence, Dean... and maybe you'll change your mind. But then... you'd rather play double inverse against silver, using sophisticated market timing tools. Good luck with that.
beauanderos wrote:DeanStockwell wrote:I will advise against investing in AGQ, or any other leveraged etf for the long term(over 2 or 3 months). You'd be better off investing in SLV. Be aware and make an educated decision after reading the below article.
Source: http://seekingalpha.com/article/129257- ... raged-etfs
I have to disagree, Dean. The article cited refers to leveraged INVERSE ETF's and, for those entities, does make some sense in regards to exercising caution. AGQ is actually ideal for playing the price rise of silver and adding an extra boost of rocket fuel. As the ETF resets on a daily basis, it actually outperforms double the price rise. When da boyz attack silver, what happens? It plunges rapidly, for a day or two. Yes, at those times you can experience terrifying losses with AGQ, but if you don't set stops you can ride it out and surpass the previous highs. When silver recovers, it usually doesn't surge... it moves twenty or thirty cents a day... UPWARDS. Several days in a row... with the "reset" occuring each day. When you return to the same spot price as before, AGQ will more than likely be higher than it was before the plunge. Do you think silver is going to keep rising? I know you don't, but you can't convince me that an ETF that I bought for mid-$40's range in February last year, not even fifteen months ago, and has now risen over 755%, is a bad bet. Silver thrives on all of the crap the FED is pulling... and that isn't going to change. AGQ is my largest holding, weighted about 65% of my portfolio, and I am extremely happy with it. I have two funds that hold nothing but AGQ... and they are up 115% so far this year. I'm not getting off this train for a long time. Do your own due diligence, Dean... and maybe you'll change your mind. But then... you'd rather play double inverse against silver, using sophisticated market timing tools. Good luck with that.
Rodebaugh wrote:Out of FCX at 44.83 yesterday.
Looking to buy again.
Rodebaugh wrote:Small lot of AGQ picked up @ 326.96..............stop loss entered at $255
Medium lot of LO picked up @ 104.30.............Smoke up! bought the news.
beauanderos wrote:My last post was perhaps laced with mental invective, which in a perfect world would be directed at those manipulating the silver markets, not those using or advising use of double inverse silver ETF's (ZSL) to profit from such machinnations. I get a bit defensive, and I guess it shows, when you and Jonflyfish "rain on my parade." After eight years of making sacrifices to buy as much physical silver as I could (and being mocked by coworkers as a zealous idiot) I decided I had enough physical and it was time to turn to paper trading and pump up the returns if possible. Against conventional wisdom (in here) I have been maxing out my 401k, which is a self-directed account. I feel certain we are going to face hyperinflation, which means, one must not only perform well, but perform extremely well in one's returns to achieve more than merely a nominal return. I'm going to say if you aren't making at least 20% you are dead in the water. So, naturally, with my stockpile of bullion as a fallback defense, I am able to swing for the fences, and AGQ has been knocking them out of the park. For every time period that Yahoo Financial is capable of displaying, AGQ has posted better than the expected return of SLV, in most time frames it has been triple. Yes, as you point out, in a strictly sideways trending market AGQ would underperform, disappointingly, due to its daily resets. But during rises it outperforms expectations, and in the last two years the rises have more than made up for the consolidative periods and the pullbacks. I do occasionally sell off some AGQ to buy other silver mining equities... and so far, seemingly, each time I've done that it's been a mistake in hindsight. The miners are not doing as well as the bullion and it has impacted one of my mixed portfolios such that it is up only 68% so far this year, compared to the pure AGQ funds. It's easy to feel like a genius when you guess lucky, which is what I've done, but you have to have indomitable fortitude to ride out the ups and downs an ETF like AGQ will produce on a daily basis. Most probably aren't cut out for it, and my previous post should only be construed to convey that there are tools to supercharge your porfolio if, as I am, you are convicted that silver has no where to go but up, and at a pace no one can even imagine. AGQ is silver on steroids. If you are going to try it, why not take a portion of your portfolio, no more than ten percent, and divide it into four quartiles. Buy AGG and hold. But AGQ and use stops and try and time the market to your advantage, selling high and buying back on dips. Buy SLV and hold. Buy SLV and use stops and try and time the market to your advantage. See what happens. I don't have the tools that the big traders use (my envy showing) and I wouldn't even understand them without alot of study which I'm not inclined to devote. I use logic, reasoning, and my own rationale as to the market sentiment to divine my moves. I guess I get disgruntled when someone naysays my suggestion to try replicating something that has worked remarkably well for me, and so I need to extend an apology for my heated debate if it seemed too personalized. By the way, AGQ is best traded inside a 401K or IRA as there are tax consequences that may catch you off-guard otherwise. Also, for those who promote the buy and hold philosophy of bullion, for anyone concerned about safety of a large stash, holding ETF's is a safe form of storing large amounts of money and is the equivalent (potential profit-wise) as you will be taxed when you pull it out. AQG = 200%, after taxes 100%, bullion outside shelters = 100% Dean, I DO like your idea for enhancing portfolio performance by using margin to buy an unleveraged ETF. I don't like SLV for many reasons to numerous to go into, but I might look around for another vehicle with which to try this. Good idea! (for a limited portion of your funds)
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