What goes up...

[68Camaro]

I can relate from personal experience that the loan rules are out of hand. Almost impossible to get a loan. I just did get one to buy a foreclosure, but I had to put 40% down, I have the best credit one can have, no debt, dual income, enough money in the bank that I didn't actually need the loan, and it was a major, invasive process that almost ended in them withdrawing and cancelling me, and almost ended on my end from getting tired of the hassle. No assertion, fact. The banks do NOT want to lend. The pendulum has swung to the other side, and actually anyone in the business will back that up.

I don't think most people are now more conservative and prudent. I think they have no choice, now. But if they did have a choice, most (enough) would go back to their prior ways. Self-discipline is a rare commodity these days.

[Jonflyfish]

I can relate from personal experience that the loan rules are out of hand. Almost impossible to get a loan. I just did get one to buy a foreclosure, but I had to put 40% down, I have the best credit one can have, no debt, dual income, enough money in the bank that I didn't actually need the loan, and it was a major, invasive process that almost ended in them withdrawing and cancelling me, and almost ended on my end from getting tired of the hassle. No assertion, fact. The banks do NOT want to lend. The pendulum has swung to the other side, and actually anyone in the business will back that up.

I don't think most people are now more conservative and prudent. I think they have no choice, now. But if they did have a choice, most (enough) would go back to their prior ways. Self-discipline is a rare commodity these days.

Sorry to hear that. I Don't pretend to know your personal situation or what the property type, legal restrictions, appraisal comps, or other contingency factors are , but a full doc conventional conforming loan with a mid fico of 700+ is a cookie cutter loan at 95% LTV.

As far as being more conservative and prudent, take a look at the Q filings for corporations. Perhaps the individual reckless choice is reflective of not having "easy" credit when one is already in a tailspin. A majority are also entering their boomer retirement years. The markets reflect a lack of risk appetite by those folks. Understandable after yet another round of delusional euphoria in 2008 after playing catchup from their blind efforts of "buy the dip" (Worldcom, Global Crossing, ENRON etc )into the ground beginning circa 1999. With the average retirement saving of less than $50k, even those folks are beginning to see the writing on the wall.

Cheers

[68Camaro]

You don't know what you're talking about on this Jon. The several mortgage brokers I know say the situation is a nightmare.

[Sheikh_yer_Bu'Tay]

I have read all the comments about macro-economics and global trade and am asking myself: "Is that why I hold silver??" I have to say no, it is not.

Treetop's last comment is as close as anyone has come on this thread. I hold silver as a hedge of last resort. Just like gold. I hold it as an alternative currency to fiat FRN's and paper assets. Silver is the "anti-dollar".

I have head some really astounding comments in the last few weeks both here and on other sites. The price predictions are wild, from single digit silver all the way to someday silver will supplant gold's supremacy. All these predictions cannot be true at the same time.

This price correction is artificial. It is manipulation at it's very worst. It does not reflect the true supply and demand of market forces upon real physical silver. Since the US government confiscated most of the gold in 1933, it has not cared what the price of gold does. But, just let silver get heated up and Uncle Sam pulls out all the stops.

Does anyone here think the silver price spike collapse of 1980 was a natural one? Not at all. Uncle Sam did everything it could to ruin the Hunt Bros. They changed the rules of the game many times, just like now. They even bought up loans from the Hunt's creditors and called in their notes to force the Hunts to sell out. Disgraceful then, disgraceful now.

I hold silver for many reasons. One of them is how fearful our government is of it.

[Jonflyfish]

You don't know what you're talking about on this Jon. The several mortgage brokers I know say the situation is a nightmare.

I don't? Do you know what my my background is or what my wife does for a living?
Sorry to hear about your personal struggle to make a deal but I am certain that there is more than meets the eye from what you have disclosed.
My intention is not to drag this into a debate about personal finance. Good loans are being made. That is how banks make money. Yes, when $trillions were being lost in 2008-2009, the credit market was almost non-existent. The (local) "mess" that people talk about who are in the real estate business has to do with the quantity of folks who are upside down, unable to refi the liar loan that is rolling from interest only (because they need to continue lying which is no longer allowed in underwriting), and the continuation of foreclosures, albeit at a slower rate than before. Borrowers (and lenders) are less inclined to make deals in neighborhoods where the appraisal comps are poor, neighborhoods (condo buildings) with low owner occupancy (rentals) are in default (declining market). Some neighborhoods and regions are eye-popping in terms of the risk and lack of quality properties. Most are not in that situation. Being in Florida with these conditions (as well as Las Vegas, Phoenix etc) where the bubble has popped and still letting out some air does make it difficult to qualify. This is not a current liquidity issue however. Those regions have greater inherent risk than other places that did not see the unsustainable over-leveraged extreme prices. Property values are projected to continue to decline some. Again that is more localized. And, without a job recovery, DEMAND for housing(mortgage apps) will remain low.
None of which is a liquidity issue. It is a quality of risk issue. Those where the properties have solid appraisals and meet the credit guidelines can get 90-95% LTV

[Treetop]

I can relate from personal experience that the loan rules are out of hand. Almost impossible to get a loan. I just did get one to buy a foreclosure, but I had to put 40% down, I have the best credit one can have, no debt, dual income, enough money in the bank that I didn't actually need the loan, and it was a major, invasive process that almost ended in them withdrawing and cancelling me, and almost ended on my end from getting tired of the hassle. No assertion, fact. The banks do NOT want to lend. The pendulum has swung to the other side, and actually anyone in the business will back that up.

I don't think most people are now more conservative and prudent. I think they have no choice, now. But if they did have a choice, most (enough) would go back to their prior ways. Self-discipline is a rare commodity these days.

Now I live in a little town in the middle of nowhere.... but atleast here, this is what it is like. No one has any more self discipline. (well besides the preppers and homesteader types I know)

I hear from all kinds of people how messed up it is we gave the banks so much money but they arent loaning it out. This is a funny place, people working at lotta burger will buy 20k vehicles, and spend all their time shining it. Well it isnt like that anymore, and people are mad. When I was buying my home a few years ago, a friend was looking as well, he was approved for 30k more then we were, and he never ended up buying. Now he cannot get a loan at all.

Again Im not saying this tiny town in the middle of no where is a representation of the entire country, but thats what it is like here. People didnt choose it the banks did. atleast here.

Actually I dont know the official numbers for credit cards usage, but around here its going up up up!!! Because this is a form of credit people have a bit more access to.

[Jonflyfish]

I can relate from personal experience that the loan rules are out of hand. Almost impossible to get a loan. I just did get one to buy a foreclosure, but I had to put 40% down, I have the best credit one can have, no debt, dual income, enough money in the bank that I didn't actually need the loan, and it was a major, invasive process that almost ended in them withdrawing and cancelling me, and almost ended on my end from getting tired of the hassle. No assertion, fact. The banks do NOT want to lend. The pendulum has swung to the other side, and actually anyone in the business will back that up.

I don't think most people are now more conservative and prudent. I think they have no choice, now. But if they did have a choice, most (enough) would go back to their prior ways. Self-discipline is a rare commodity these days.

Now I live in a little town in the middle of nowhere.... but atleast here, this is what it is like. No one has any more self discipline. (well besides the preppers and homesteader types I know)

I hear from all kinds of people how messed up it is we gave the banks so much money but they arent loaning it out. This is a funny place, people working at lotta burger will buy 20k vehicles, and spend all their time shining it. Well it isnt like that anymore, and people are mad. When I was buying my home a few years ago, a friend was looking as well, he was approved for 30k more then we were, and he never ended up buying. Now he cannot get a loan at all.

Again Im not saying this tiny town in the middle of no where is a representation of the entire country, but thats what it is like here. People didnt choose it the banks did. atleast here.

Actually I dont know the official numbers for credit cards usage, but around here its going up up up!!! Because this is a form of credit people have a bit more access to.

Continued deterioration of one's personal credit profile (fico score) will only ensure declines in perpetuity. Sad to see negative feedback loops causing personal destruction. The credit card companies aren't sleeping any longer either. When the available credit gets suddenly capped, those who are living on revolving credit will have to face the piper and it'll be ugly.
It is pretty telling when people are declined for mortgages then gorge on credit card leverage.
Something doesn't make sense about those folks- unemployed, spending more than they make etc.
Who in their right mind would want to give them a few $100k's? It sounds like they once qualified on liar loans but now can't document income or income/debt qualifying ratios for a conventional conforming loan.

[Treetop]

I can relate from personal experience that the loan rules are out of hand. Almost impossible to get a loan. I just did get one to buy a foreclosure, but I had to put 40% down, I have the best credit one can have, no debt, dual income, enough money in the bank that I didn't actually need the loan, and it was a major, invasive process that almost ended in them withdrawing and cancelling me, and almost ended on my end from getting tired of the hassle. No assertion, fact. The banks do NOT want to lend. The pendulum has swung to the other side, and actually anyone in the business will back that up.

I don't think most people are now more conservative and prudent. I think they have no choice, now. But if they did have a choice, most (enough) would go back to their prior ways. Self-discipline is a rare commodity these days.

Now I live in a little town in the middle of nowhere.... but atleast here, this is what it is like. No one has any more self discipline. (well besides the preppers and homesteader types I know)

I hear from all kinds of people how messed up it is we gave the banks so much money but they arent loaning it out. This is a funny place, people working at lotta burger will buy 20k vehicles, and spend all their time shining it. Well it isnt like that anymore, and people are mad. When I was buying my home a few years ago, a friend was looking as well, he was approved for 30k more then we were, and he never ended up buying. Now he cannot get a loan at all.

Again Im not saying this tiny town in the middle of no where is a representation of the entire country, but thats what it is like here. People didnt choose it the banks did. atleast here.

Actually I dont know the official numbers for credit cards usage, but around here its going up up up!!! Because this is a form of credit people have a bit more access to.

Continued deterioration of one's personal credit profile (fico score) will only ensure declines in perpetuity. Sad to see negative feedback loops causing personal destruction. The credit card companies aren't sleeping any longer either. When the available credit gets suddenly capped, they'll have to face the piper and it'll be ugly.

yeah, Im guessing a large chunk of those Im talking about here, have poor credit and always did, but thats part of the point. such people used to have pretty expensive cars apparently easily. I never tried to get one myself, weve got great credit, but are more conservative with our cash.....

Actuall since we are talking credit, I should point out our local bank IS still making a good number of loans. Ive got no clue how they make their decisions, but they are funding several new businesses going in. nothing exciting, just gas stations for along a highway, hard to imagine we need more, theres 3 right next to where one is going, and a hotel. Used to work in the hotels and they were never ful, so hard to imagine needing one of those either... but Id think those are pretty big loans for our little bank. they are the ONLY commercial buildings Ive seen put up in 5 years of living here. mostly people here buy an older building and renovate. Because weve got lots of excess buildings, after a bust cycle in our mining town from the 80s.

[Treetop]

I can relate from personal experience that the loan rules are out of hand. Almost impossible to get a loan. I just did get one to buy a foreclosure, but I had to put 40% down, I have the best credit one can have, no debt, dual income, enough money in the bank that I didn't actually need the loan, and it was a major, invasive process that almost ended in them withdrawing and cancelling me, and almost ended on my end from getting tired of the hassle. No assertion, fact. The banks do NOT want to lend. The pendulum has swung to the other side, and actually anyone in the business will back that up.

I don't think most people are now more conservative and prudent. I think they have no choice, now. But if they did have a choice, most (enough) would go back to their prior ways. Self-discipline is a rare commodity these days.

Now I live in a little town in the middle of nowhere.... but atleast here, this is what it is like. No one has any more self discipline. (well besides the preppers and homesteader types I know)

I hear from all kinds of people how messed up it is we gave the banks so much money but they arent loaning it out. This is a funny place, people working at lotta burger will buy 20k vehicles, and spend all their time shining it. Well it isnt like that anymore, and people are mad. When I was buying my home a few years ago, a friend was looking as well, he was approved for 30k more then we were, and he never ended up buying. Now he cannot get a loan at all.

Again Im not saying this tiny town in the middle of no where is a representation of the entire country, but thats what it is like here. People didnt choose it the banks did. atleast here.

Actually I dont know the official numbers for credit cards usage, but around here its going up up up!!! Because this is a form of credit people have a bit more access to.

Continued deterioration of one's personal credit profile (fico score) will only ensure declines in perpetuity. Sad to see negative feedback loops causing personal destruction. The credit card companies aren't sleeping any longer either. When the available credit gets suddenly capped, those who are living on revolving credit will have to face the piper and it'll be ugly.
It is pretty telling when people are declined for mortgages then gorge on credit card leverage.
Something doesn't make sense about those folks- unemployed, spending more than they make etc.
Who in their right mind would want to give them a few $100k's? It sounds like they once qualified on liar loans but now can't document income or income/debt qualifying ratios for a conventional conforming loan.

Sorry i had replied before you changed it a bit.... Yeah I cant understand such borrowers either.... Im perhaps more conservative then i need to be with such things, but some of these people freak me out. they arent unemployed. But certainly on the bottom rung.... well the friend who cannot get the home loan, hes got a decent job, and does ok with his money actually...

and yeah, Im sure the banks had to help them stretch the truth a bit, maybe not the guy who wanted the house.... but most of these others for sure....

[68Camaro]

Youve changed the topic, interestingly enough. I didnt say i had to put 40% down. I just said i did, with the point being that and the other factors made this literally a risk free loan for them, and they still made it incredibly painful, and thats the new norm. The cookie cutter you mention only applies to the top 5 or 10 percent of the country. Mine should have been in the top percentile. And i hear story after story just like this. Yes, they are making loans, but the have a tight throttle on it, at a purposely slow pace. So saying that qualified people dont want loans is bs.

[theo]

My wife works for a large commercial bank, which offered a program for employees to refinance their mortgages a at very favorable rate. And of course we decided to apply late last year. We both have good credit scores, steady incomes and have a lot of equity in our home. However, the process took three months and was very frustrating and invasive. When we initially bought our house in 2005 our loan was approved in a few days. I had the impression that they were trying to get me to give up in frustration.

[Jonflyfish]

Youve changed the topic, interestingly enough. I didnt say i had to put 40% down. I just said i did, with the point being that and the other factors made this literally a risk free loan for them, and they still made it incredibly painful, and thats the new norm. The cookie cutter you mention only applies to the top 5 or 10 percent of the country. Mine should have been in the top percentile. And i hear story after story just like this. Yes, they are making loans, but the have a tight throttle on it, at a purposely slow pace. So saying that qualified people dont want loans is bs.

I don't see where the topic was changed. "incredibly painful" is a relative term, especially when compared to a no doc loan. That does not speak to "willingness" from a liquidity perspective either.
If you lost $billions from previously unsound policy, then whether it is a portfolio loan or a fannie freddie loan, scrutiny is adhered to with the underwriting guidelines.
Qualified people are not clamoring to get credit like they were during the economic expansion. No bs there. There are also fewer qualified folks as many have found themselves un or under-employed.

[Jonflyfish]

My wife works for a large commercial bank, which offered a program for employees to refinance their mortgages a at very favorable rate. And of course we decided to apply late last year. We both have good credit scores, steady incomes and have a lot of equity in our home. However, the process took three months and was very frustrating and invasive. When we initially bought our house in 2005 our loan was approved in a few days. I had the impression that they were trying to get me to give up in frustration.

Prior to 2002, this was no different. In fact, the farther back in history the more time it took. Technology has helped.

[68Camaro]

My wife works for a large commercial bank, which offered a program for employees to refinance their mortgages a at very favorable rate. And of course we decided to apply late last year. We both have good credit scores, steady incomes and have a lot of equity in our home. However, the process took three months and was very frustrating and invasive. When we initially bought our house in 2005 our loan was approved in a few days. I had the impression that they were trying to get me to give up in frustration.

Prior to 2002, this was no different. In fact, the farther back in history the more time it took. Technology has helped.

Sometimes I think you like to argue just for the sake of it; if I said the sky was blue you'd tell me it was neon green, and prepare to debate it.

I've been applying for and successfully getting mortgages for more 30 years Jon. My creditworthiness is impeccible, as is that of my wife; I hold a security clearance and she has her own special occupational consideration that isn't germane, but which usually makes her prime for the best rates and credit. The property we bought was solid and is now re-occupied and in good shape. Since you're not listening to me, I'll note for the balance of the readers that getting real estate loans (not personal credit at 20+%, or car loans, which are liquid) has never been remotely anything like the pain currently inflicted. You saying that it isn't unusually painful, or that this is the old "normal", doesn't make it so. Several people that are actually in the middle of this, experiencing it, perhaps even with more experience that you, are telling you what is happening based on their personal experience and that of others they personally know, and you're telling them it isn't so, or else that there must be something at issue with their particular situation.

I'll stop here before I say things that don't matter and shouldn't be said here. I'm done with this subtopic. On to something else more interesting...

Cheers...

[Jonflyfish]

My wife works for a large commercial bank, which offered a program for employees to refinance their mortgages a at very favorable rate. And of course we decided to apply late last year. We both have good credit scores, steady incomes and have a lot of equity in our home. However, the process took three months and was very frustrating and invasive. When we initially bought our house in 2005 our loan was approved in a few days. I had the impression that they were trying to get me to give up in frustration.

Prior to 2002, this was no different. In fact, the farther back in history the more time it took. Technology has helped.

Sometimes I think you like to argue just for the sake of it; if I said the sky was blue you'd tell me it was neon green, and prepare to debate it.

I've been applying for and successfully getting mortgages for more 30 years Jon. My creditworthiness is impeccible, as is that of my wife; I hold a security clearance and she has her own special occupational consideration that isn't germane, but which usually makes her prime for the best rates and credit. The property we bought was solid and is now re-occupied and in good shape. Since you're not listening to me, I'll note for the balance of the readers that getting real estate loans (not personal credit at 20+%, or car loans, which are liquid) has never been remotely anything like the pain currently inflicted. You saying that it isn't unusually painful, or that this is the old "normal", doesn't make it so. Several people that are actually in the middle of this, experiencing it, perhaps even with more experience that you, are telling you what is happening based on their personal experience and that of others they personally know, and you're telling them it isn't so, or else that there must be something at issue with their particular situation.

I'll stop here before I say things that don't matter and shouldn't be said here. I'm done with this subtopic. On to something else more interesting...

Cheers...

Sorry I could not reply sooner. Wife had a c-section to give birth to our third and final angel.
Like I mentioned earlier, nothing I was talking about was personal and certainly would not deem to be challenging you in any way. My musings are macro based. Grew a wholesale mortgage co. from 2 to 900 staff in 2 yrs and from 0 to $2 billion and topped the Inc list as the fastest growing finance company a few years back. Pretty familiar with the ins and outs. But as you mentioned- there are more folks who know a whole lot more than I do, no doubt. Call me wrong if it makes you right. I'm good with that. No hard feelings.
I wish you only the best of the best of luck.

Cheers

[franklin]

Jon:
Congrats on your kid and hope all is well with everyone.

[Jonflyfish]

Jon:
Congrats on your kid and hope all is well with everyone.

Many thanks Franklin. All is well (and very busy). Nice way to hit RC 1000

[Treetop]

Congratulations on the baby!!!! We had our second about 3 months ago.

[68Camaro]

Congratulations on the baby!!!! We had our second about 3 months ago.

Well then, congrats to both of you!!!

[Jonflyfish]

Didn't mean to provoke such ardent reactions of commodity allegiance. Was just some food for thought.
I'll trade whatever my system says. Nonetheless, something tells me that the USD is about to rally, and it could be quite surprisingly strong.
I just try to keep an open mind and see things for what they are. Perhaps this will be the black swan of Realcent.
I could be 100% wrong of course.

Cheers!

The cycle reversal has taken many by surprise. I hope all are well.
Best,
JFF

[highroller4321]

Didn't mean to provoke such ardent reactions of commodity allegiance. Was just some food for thought.
I'll trade whatever my system says. Nonetheless, something tells me that the USD is about to rally, and it could be quite surprisingly strong.
I just try to keep an open mind and see things for what they are. Perhaps this will be the black swan of Realcent.
I could be 100% wrong of course.

Cheers!

The cycle reversal has taken many by surprise. I hope all are well.
Best,
JFF

What do you see as the next step?

[Thogey]

JFF. What the hell? That's it?

Feed us man!

[aristobolus]

JFF, what's next? 999?

[Cu Penny Hoarder]

Didn't mean to provoke such ardent reactions of commodity allegiance. Was just some food for thought.
I'll trade whatever my system says. Nonetheless, something tells me that the USD is about to rally, and it could be quite surprisingly strong.
I just try to keep an open mind and see things for what they are. Perhaps this will be the black swan of Realcent.
I could be 100% wrong of course.

Cheers!

The cycle reversal has taken many by surprise. I hope all are well.
Best,
JFF

Digging up a 5 month old thread just so you can gloat?... that is pathetic.

The cycle was reversed artificially. This massive correction was caused by blatent CME/bankster fraud and manipulation. Do you deny this?

[TXBullion]

Jff has a very good track record and I don't think he is gloating. I sure would like to know what his system anticipates for the near term movement....