What happens to PM prices when Greece fails?

[JJM]

I've been watching & studying the PIIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain) debt crisis unfold in the EU for at least a year now, probably closer to two. I don't believe TPTB can paper over reality too much longer, so I don't think it will be too much longer before Greece defaults, and I believe there is a high likelihood that this event will create more havoc in the financial world than when Lehman failed a few years ago.

Assuming Greece defaults, what do you think this will do to the PM market, and why?

I think it will be a good buying opportunity, as I think metals will correct downward at least 25-33% in the aftermarth, before resuming their movement upward. I also think we are probably within 10%, maybe 20% at the most, of a top in the PM market for at least the next 12-18 months. If the other PIIGS countries follow suit, all bets are off. The fall in PM prices will likely be either greater or longer, or both.

Just my .02. Curious what the other folks in here think, TIA.

[balz]

I believe we will see mass investment of fiat currency on the markets to avoid too much of a fail. I believe there is a meeting at the Fed today; they will PRINT PRINT PRINT.

I think we might see some pullback, but I think it will not be as important as in 2008. Maybe 10%.

[68Camaro]

Greece will default but they will rename it to something else to not call it a "real" default, and they will attempt to isolate it, and pretend it didn't really happen, or that it wasn't bad. They are already pumping out all sorts of "reassuring" words to the effect that Europe is fully capable of covering this on their own without external help, blah, blah. Unless something unexpected happens with Greece, I think they are working feverishly to let Greece down to the ground slowly. But it will punish the Euro banks, and further weaken them. I think they've kicked the can down the road one more week or month.

[Cu Penny Hoarder]

It could be Greece, or something else that causes the final rollover. You can bet TPTB are going to extend & pretend for as long as they possibly can. However, when the jig is up and folks finally realize what is happening, world stock markets will start crashing. The margin calls will have a domino effect and exacerbate the selling of every paper instrument out there. Banks will freeze accounts to prevent bank runs. The digital fiatscos held in brokerage accounts, 401k and IRA accounts will disappear like a fart in the wind. Paper gold and silver will get hit too (ie. 2008), but that will only cause a massive run on physical.

One can only imagine what will happen after that. IMO, 2008 was nothing compared to what is about to happen. Only smart/savvy people will be able to survive the coming economic catastrophe. Unfortunutely, many will perish.

It can't hurt to have a stockpile of water, food, guns, ammo, clothing and other necessities on hand. If a SHTF scenario doesn't happen, you've lost nothing... but if you're not prepared and the S does HTF, you will lose everything. So, if you haven't done it already, get all your ducks in a row right NOW while you still have time.

[ardorlan]

I know I am stepping outside of PMs but I think CHF, the Currency of the Swiss which is currently Peg to the Euro could see a High Upshot (IF the euro fails), or whenever the Swiss unpeg thier currency, Whenever everyone else is sinking, I am sure the swiss will unpeg to save themselves.

[Delawhere Jack]

I know I am stepping outside of PMs but I think CHF, the Currency of the Swiss which is currently Peg to the Euro could see a High Upshot (IF the euro fails), or whenever the Swiss unpeg thier currency, Whenever everyone else is sinking, I am sure the swiss will unpeg to save themselves.

Rumor only at this point, the Swiss plan to change the Franc peg from 1.20 to 1.25 / Euro? (devaluing the Franc).

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/swiss-franc-plunges-rumor-eurchf-peg-be-widened-125

[Cu Penny Hoarder]

I know I am stepping outside of PMs but I think CHF, the Currency of the Swiss which is currently Peg to the Euro could see a High Upshot (IF the euro fails), or whenever the Swiss unpeg thier currency, Whenever everyone else is sinking, I am sure the swiss will unpeg to save themselves.

Every fiat currency in the world has failed, or is destined to fail. The swiss franc is not immune.

[slvrbck]

I believe Greece is currently in the process of default right now.

[shinnosuke]

Yes, I know RT videos on YouTube are intended to make Russia look better than the rest of the world. However, this one is pretty straight-shooting.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uy3ICLYM3DY&feature=player_embedded

"Gold isn't rising...fiat currencies are falling."

[silverflake]

Make no bones about it, Greece is defaulting. TPTB are easing us into it slowly but easily so that we don't view it as an overnight slap to the face. I am sure when it happens they will name it something pretty like the GREEK OLYMPIC DEBT MISJUDGEMENT instead of calling it the failure that it is. Don't forget, the Greek populace was clamoring for British Gold Sovereigns over the past year or so.

Anybody want to buy a Greek 2 year bond? Good yield - about 72%.

[shinnosuke]

Make no bones about it, Greece is defaulting. TPTB are easing us into it slowly but easily so that we don't view it as an overnight slap to the face. I am sure when it happens they will name it something pretty like the GREEK OLYMPIC DEBT MISJUDGEMENT instead of calling it the failure that it is. Don't forget, the Greek populace was clamoring for British Gold Sovereigns over the past year or so.

Anybody want to buy a Greek 2 year bond? Good yield - about 72%.

Great yield, but the default probability is 99%+ so buy some CDS and sleep at night. As for me and my house...

[JJM]

I think the margin call induced plummet in PM prices over the past 2 days are a prelude of what will happen when the lamestream media and the politicians running the puppet show finally acknowledge that Greece has failed. They continue to paper it over. They continue to electron it over. I wish I shared some of the optimism (re: metal prices) some of you guys have, but when Europe tips over cash will be king once again (for a while...).

[neilgin1]

I think the margin call induced plummet in PM prices over the past 2 days are a prelude of what will happen when the lamestream media and the politicians running the puppet show finally acknowledge that Greece has failed. They continue to paper it over. They continue to electron it over. I wish I shared some of the optimism (re: metal prices) some of you guys have, but when Europe tips over cash will be king once again (for a while...).

without a doubt, we'll probably get that news about Greece this weekend...so just think of the craziest possible silver price on the downside........$27.......$19........$9...hey dont laugh, you could see $19 next week this time....and we'll be sad when we shouldnt be, ITS A GIFT.

[tractorman]

Right on ... I'd LOVE to see $9 silver!!!

[neilgin1]

Right on ... I'd LOVE to see $9 silver!!!

oh yeh, but guys been loading up in the 30's and 40's....but split milk, just fed that cow some more hay, and get more milk...dare i say it, but $400 ASE rolls? the first down i zero'ed in on 90's, now, IF we get crazy to the down, its ASE time.

[JJM]

I don't believe Greece will be "allowed" to fail this weekend. I might be wrong, but I'd be more comfortable if they kicked the can down the road a bit longer...lol But it will certainly be a weekend type event, most likely a three day weekend event. If I were to guess, I'd say on or around Thanksgiving. The U.S. markets are closed that Thursday, Friday is pretty much a no-show day, and then there are two more days. The average sheep is away and unaware, even moreso than normal, that weekend. After all, there's BLACK FRIDAY SHOPPING to do....lol

[hejira11]

I don't pretend to know the machinations of the global economy. I am sticking with long term fundamentals of Silver. I don't intend to teach them here, but if you are curious just google Silver.

My opinion is simple. Continuing to lower the price of a finite resource that is purposely undervalued to begin with means a buying opportunity for someone with time on their side. I believe that when everything gets disinfeced by sunlight we will see a rise in SIlver prices that will be talked about for generations.

If, in the meantime it goes to 9 the ounce. I'll be dollar cost averaging my buys all the way there.

The fundamentals impress me that much.

[JJM]

I can some up the PM market this weekend in three words.

BUY BUY BUY



After Greece has a fork stuck in her because she's done, there will be an even greater buying opportunity however.

[JJM]

Is this week the end of the line for the EU kicking the can down the road regarding Greece? Or will some other country get to wear the albatross around their neck for a while....?

[JJM]

Maybe it will be the week of Christmas instead.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/greek-bankruptcy-imminent

It will be interesting to see what happens to PM's when this happens. As tempting as it is to buy today, I have yet to pull the trigger...

[Tourney64]

If Greece fails, gold and silver will fall because it will be used as currency. More gold and silver entering the market will cause a drop in price.

[Tourney64]

If Greece fails, gold and silver will fall because it will be used as currency. More gold and silver entering the market will cause a drop in price.