being cool about this

[neilgin1]

every since the sell off i have not bought a single toz of Ag. Something tells me be cool.

Sure i put bids in the mkt, for real bids, but i keep getting outbid, and i dont care, because something tells me "be cool". hey, if i miss out on getting a couple hundred toz, pretend of course, so what?.....what's kind of spooking me are two things, we're now tracking with the stock market---bad sign , and two, open interest on the Comex keeps dropping the lower we go, which lends me to believe that its LONG CAPITULATION, and not a ramped up bear raid. My feeling is that ardent bears are waiting for an equities sell off and THEN they going to come in and just cream any silver futures market bulls foolhardy enough to try and catch the falling knife.

i applaud any bro's here stacking, you got sand, but i got to go with what i believe is going to unfold, thats a downdraft to the 15-25 dollar area, more emphasis on the 15 dollar area. stay safe. make your stacks be enlarged.

[Thogey]

Can you please explain what this means.

"My feeling is that ardent bears are waiting for an equities sell off and THEN they going to come in and just cream any silver futures market bulls foolhardy enough to try and catch the falling knife."

[morris14ccm]

He thinks that people who are bearish are going to sell equities, lowering silver futures, that bullish people may try and buy as the price falls. catching the falling knife is buying when the price is sinking.

I bought some 90% at $29 and change on Friday, but only $2 FV worth (college student, not much money). I think we're going to see a fall to at least $20 before next Friday. I've saved most of my money in preparation for that. If I could find any eagles in stock at $25-28 or so then I plan to buy a tube.

[Thogey]

He thinks that people who are bearish are going to sell equities, lowering silver futures, that bullish people may try and buy as the price falls. catching the falling knife is buying when the price is sinking.

I bought some 90% at $29 and change on Friday, but only $2 FV worth (college student, not much money). I think we're going to see a fall to at least $20 before next Friday. I've saved most of my money in preparation for that. If I could find any eagles in stock at $25-28 or so then I plan to buy a tube.

What is the 'and THEN' ? Does this mean the bears are holding back their 'silver' until the market is really soft 'and THEN' sell more.

I just don't understand how things work in the pit and I would like neil to explain it. He writes in pit speak. It's interesting but the lingo escaps me.

[barrytrot]

$15 an ounce is nigh impossible.

And people that believe that traders have that much power over commodities always make me laugh.

Do you think that "smart money" people need a 50% change to make money? Nope. More like 5%, even less. A relatively small move at the right time is all it takes to snap up money from more of the under-informed traders out there. Take this last week. Each of those drops caused numerous margin calls and panic sells and forced liquidations, right into the "smart money hands".

NOTE: I'm not saying that the smart money thinks silver will go up or down. The smart money knows it *flows*. So all they do is play the waiting game against legions of under-informed "day traders" and "market timers". The under-informed eventually guess wrong since, let's be honest it is impossible to guess, check tons of old posts on this forum for proof that everyone here misses by a mile some of the time, and the people here are way above average. So you can imagine the light-years-off guesses of the "average".

So for the smart money to take the under-informed money they just need to wait. Every day there are those that get over extended and get liquidated and that money goes right into the smart money hands. Over and over.

[franklin]

I understand nearly nill of what you guys are discussing as I don't even know what a margin call is, much less selling or holding long or short. I am a scavenger, lapping up as much as I can when it falls to last weekend's levels, not realizing what even caused it but realizing that it may be advantageous to make a move.

[Thogey]

Let's start a thread that explains this jargon.

[neilgin1]

Can you please explain what this means.

"My feeling is that ardent bears are waiting for an equities sell off and THEN they going to come in and just cream any silver futures market bulls foolhardy enough to try and catch the falling knife."

of course Thog.......since equities and PM's seem to tracking, and since there is a very real chance equities are in trouble, and since we had a major shaving of open interest in Comex silver, which means long capitulation, the strong arm, FUTURES WISE, seems to rest with those who like to conduct bear raids in silver futures. They're just waiting to pounce, thats what it feels like to me..hope thats clear.

[barrytrot]

Can you please explain what this means.

"My feeling is that ardent bears are waiting for an equities sell off and THEN they going to come in and just cream any silver futures market bulls foolhardy enough to try and catch the falling knife."

of course Thog.......since equities and PM's seem to tracking, and since there is a very real chance equities are in trouble, and since we had a major shaving of open interest in Comex silver, which means long capitulation, the strong arm, FUTURES WISE, seems to rest with those who like to conduct bear raids in silver futures. They're just waiting to pounce, thats what it feels like to me..hope thats clear.

The fact that is currently a little *too obvious* means it's probably not going to go the way you think

You don't think 1,000,000 people see that same thing? The market changes so often that it's ironic that people still look at what it's doing as any indicator of what it will do tomorrow.

Every trend line is best drawn after it ends. Then you can make it perfectly conducive to whatever theory goes along with it

[neilgin1]

Barry , the the lead traders of the precious metal trading desks at large banks, all know each other. and when you put 4 entities like this together, trading in semi-concert, they can put a REAL hurt to the market...its easy, especially when the mkts are on the ropes technically. slash and burn, its easy.

[neilgin1]

Can you please explain what this means.

"My feeling is that ardent bears are waiting for an equities sell off and THEN they going to come in and just cream any silver futures market bulls foolhardy enough to try and catch the falling knife."

of course Thog.......since equities and PM's seem to tracking, and since there is a very real chance equities are in trouble, and since we had a major shaving of open interest in Comex silver, which means long capitulation, the strong arm, FUTURES WISE, seems to rest with those who like to conduct bear raids in silver futures. They're just waiting to pounce, thats what it feels like to me..hope thats clear.

The fact that is currently a little *too obvious* means it's probably not going to go the way you think

You don't think 1,000,000 people see that same thing? The market changes so often that it's ironic that people still look at what it's doing as any indicator of what it will do tomorrow.

Every trend line is best drawn after it ends. Then you can make it perfectly conducive to whatever theory goes along with it

well, i guess you're smarter than me then.....but not as smart as to engage in patronizing rhetoric shot my way...we'll let it trade. seems to me, a while back, right before we zipped to 49, werent you making a case for it going lower? correct me if i'm wrong, or "too obvious".

[theo]

It is surprising just how wrong we were a mere couple weeks ago. I remember all the discussion around how technically strong silver looked while building a base around 40 and how it would lurch above 50 with in weeks. Now after one margin increase, some concentrated short selling along with some bad news from Europe and we are talking about $15. Honestly, I have no problem buying physical at these levels b/c even if Ag does go down below say, $20 (which I seriously doubt) little if any physical will be available.

Perhaps I missed the thread but I'd like to see more discussion around what caused this beyond CME/concentrated short manipulation. While I'm sure those factors played a role, I have a difficult time believing they have that much power. Here are some other possible contributors:

1. Strength in the dollar (albeit temporary) due to the Euro crisis. "The dog with the least fleas."

2. The threat of a double dip recession (a near certainty) has dried up liquidity and allowed deflation to win a few rounds.

3. I hate to say it but, could Nadler have a point about excess supply? I doubt it, but we occasionally must check our assertions.

4. Remember the heady days (a few months ago ) when the Chinese were about to open their own metals exchange and destroy the LME monopoly sending silver hurdling toward 60 and gold to 2500? Its interesting that we've heard next to nothing about this new exchange recently. I'm just spit balling here, but could this new Hunan exchange have played a part in this. The Chinese might not mind cheap silver and gold for the time being.

Sorry if you guys have already had this discussion, but it helps me to order my thoughts.

[Thogey]

Can you please explain what this means.

"My feeling is that ardent bears are waiting for an equities sell off and THEN they going to come in and just cream any silver futures market bulls foolhardy enough to try and catch the falling knife."

of course Thog.......since equities and PM's seem to tracking, and since there is a very real chance equities are in trouble, and since we had a major shaving of open interest in Comex silver, which means long capitulation, the strong arm, FUTURES WISE, seems to rest with those who like to conduct bear raids in silver futures. They're just waiting to pounce, thats what it feels like to me..hope thats clear.

I'll pretend that's clear.

You're an a-hole neil. we REALLY need to go get drunk some time and you can explain stuff like 'the strong arm FUTURES WISE' is

I'm commin to your house neil and put a flaming bag of dog sh*t on you porch and ring the door bell.

Just like I did to beauanderos.

I'm starting a jargon thread.

[neilgin1]

It is surprising just how wrong we were a mere couple weeks ago. I remember all the discussion around how technically strong silver looked while building a base around 40 and how it would lurch above 50 with in weeks. Now after one margin increase, some concentrated short selling along with some bad news from Europe and we are talking about $15. Honestly, I have no problem buying physical at these levels b/c even if Ag does go down below say, $20 (which I seriously doubt) little if any physical will be available.

Perhaps I missed the thread but I'd like to see more discussion around what caused this beyond CME/concentrated short manipulation. While I'm sure those factors played a role, I have a difficult time believing they have that much power. Here are some other possible contributors:

1. Strength in the dollar (albeit temporary) due to the Euro crisis. "The dog with the least fleas."

2. The threat of a double dip recession (a near certainty) has dried up liquidity and allowed deflation to win a few rounds.

3. I hate to say it but, could Nadler have a point about excess supply? I doubt it, but we occasionally must check our assertions.

4. Remember the heady days (a few months ago ) when the Chinese were about to open their own metals exchange and destroy the LME monopoly sending silver hurdling toward 60 and gold to 2500? Its interesting that we've heard next to nothing about this new exchange recently. I'm just spit balling here, but could this new Hunan exchange have played a part in this. The Chinese might not mind cheap silver and gold for the time being.

Sorry if you guys have already had this discussion, but it helps me to order my thoughts.

Theo, friend, my hands are clean: wrote this on 9 Sep:

Edit postReport this postReply with quoteRe: SILVER PART 2 - THE RISE TO $75 - NOW AT $42+
by neilgin1 » Fri Sep 09, 2011 2:23 pm

i just got a feeling we're heading lower, mid 30's, maybe re-test that recent 33 low. been thinking, these large entities that use silver futures like an ATM, they can still prevail at their little game for two reasons, COMEX silver open interest is not deep and wide, and they have free e-money from the Fed.....and going lower might not be as bad as it sounds. Personally i wouldnt mind the potential opportunity to get ASE rolls at 700...OR even 600, as unthinkable as that sounds. have a good weekend. 9-11, ten years, honor the fallen, never forget. neil

[hags]

Can you please explain what this means.

"My feeling is that ardent bears are waiting for an equities sell off and THEN they going to come in and just cream any silver futures market bulls foolhardy enough to try and catch the falling knife."

of course Thog.......since equities and PM's seem to tracking, and since there is a very real chance equities are in trouble, and since we had a major shaving of open interest in Comex silver, which means long capitulation, the strong arm, FUTURES WISE, seems to rest with those who like to conduct bear raids in silver futures. They're just waiting to pounce, thats what it feels like to me..hope thats clear.

Here's some more jargon then,
Trader wisdom that proved profitable...."when the crowd rushes to the other side of the boat don't be first to the other side, or the last"....

An Andrews Pitchfork on silver spot (weekly) clearly outlines both sides of the "boat"...we're approaching amidships now at $28/oz. Port side was realized at $50/oz. and starboard is currently around $18/oz. Anything outside that range would be a true leeward change in a 10 year chart of spot silver.... I'll see if I can post a chart....

hags

[neilgin1]

so then 22 hags...$22 seems like a good goalpost. wise words.

[Beau]

.
any one know how to speak english?

I think someone above likes to show how smart he is, but that is not happening.
the dictionary has nothing that fits what ever is meant.
the description has nothing pretaining to what ever was meant.

guys lets get it right so you and others can read it and know what is meant.
leave off the riddles when you have not read your own post.

theogy was right about he can not know what you are saying
in my book he is no dummy, and neither am I and the whole REALCENT group, members.
you are not talking to a bunch of dummies, so get you a dictionary, before you post the big words you don`t understand.

GOOD LUCK

[Thogey]

Thanks Beau

[hags]

Here's the chart...

the previous fork (light green) violated support in the 08' sell off creating the present fork (dark blue) which has maintained since, only allowing price above resistance for a short, and mostly untradeable period...thus the rush to port side....
the current pullback to midships is occuring as expected by Andrews Pitchfork methodology....banding in this area would be strong support....time will tell....
dropping to, or rushing to starboard (lower support) is a true buying opportunity and a better area to "average in", but possibly unexpected due to the election year upcoming...you know dang well they're gonna paint a rosy future...and that'll start soon.....
the chart points to the window of best opportunity to buy.....and also when to wait...personal risk tolerance taken into account....

hags

[neilgin1]

.
any one know how to speak english?

I think someone above likes to show how smart he is, but that is not happening.
the dictionary has nothing that fits what ever is meant.
the description has nothing pretaining to what ever was meant.

guys lets get it right so you and others can read it and know what is meant.
leave off the riddles when you have not read your own post.

theogy was right about he can not know what you are saying
in my book he is no dummy, and neither am I and the whole REALCENT group, members.
you are not talking to a bunch of dummies, so get you a dictionary, before you post the big words you don`t understand.

GOOD LUCK

okay, i'll take that at face value, nothing more.

[Jonflyfish]

There are many ways to make (and lose) money in the markets. However, one of the universal truths is that the future is ALWAYS unknowable.
Once you fully understand and accept this you don't need to know the future in order to benefit from what comes next.
If nothing else, Neil should have learned this from some of his prior dogmatic pontifications
Perhaps best to simply ignore any mithering.
Truth in price.
Cheers,
JFF

[neilgin1]

There are many ways to make (and lose) money in the markets. However, one of the universal truths is that the future is ALWAYS unknowable.
Once you fully understand and accept this you don't need to know the future in order to benefit from what comes next.
If nothing else, Neil should have learned this from some of his prior dogmatic pontifications
Perhaps best to simply ignore any mithering.
Truth in price.
Cheers,
JFF

good deal, coming from a guy, that disappeared after his "pontifications" proved to be disastrous, and only returned after the market took a 26% haircut. all the while we were treated to a look over his shoulder as he sold the silver market short many months.

great character partner, didnt even have the stones to say, 'i was wrong', but heck, if his trades were real, he took a bath, and the last thing i'd want to be doing is posting on any forum, after getting hammered like that, so Jonny, you and beau can both kiss my mistletoe, that "foe" feature here is a beauty. "Truth in price"....get real.

[neilgin1]

anybody else? want to point out my character or word usage flaws? step up. no problems.

and moderators, admin, if you want to boot me...dont let me stop you.

[Jonflyfish]

Neil,
Thanks for the hubris. I haven't been here for quite a while due to family commitments, not your frolicking falsehoods. In fact Neil, since the time I haven't been here, leaving the markets short near the highs, what have they done? Stones? Takes some real stones to be short against the grain.
Remember your long winded exhaustive dissertation on the "Imminent Silver Correction" thread around the first of May?
Neil, you either suffer from dementia or are delusional. Not only was I lucky enough to locate the break near $17 (as posted on the old site) as a major rally point for a strong breakout, but was fortunate enough to be core short silver from the highs, reloading for a bounce then reversing on the lower high in keeping with the well documented Realcent Black Swan. These were just the core positions. Some swing and scalp trades have been posted here in the past as well, which is a mere fraction of the level of activity I trade for myself and institutional clients.
Remember what you said? “…and Jonny, again, due respect, but you're wrong, this market, silver, is going to places higher than you ever dreamed.

so you going to fight it all the way up to $75?....fight it to $150?........$250?..........$400?

dont detect hard feelings...none at all, for piss sakes i hope you're right, as i'm doubling up on the PHYSICAL if we go down.”
Neil that is the most visibility to your ardent belief about an awe inspiring rally that never came.
In a zero sum game someone loses and someone wins. I think your delusional miscues have squarely exposed who "took the bath". I never dwell in anyone’s losses Neil. It’s sad that your insecurity demands and incites such reaction to set the record straight after your loose lipped ire rage against me regarding things you have no clue about. You have no idea who I am or what I do or what success in trading I've been blessed with. Obviously you wish it weren't true. Are U mad bro?
I wish you the best and for better days ahead. There is no need to reply Neil until you seek help and have had a chance to heal and recover because I won't waste my time nor the others' here with entertaining your ill-minded efforts.
Truth in price....get real? In the financial markets there is nothing more real than the prices where trades cross. Especially when the proceeds from such provide among other things a living, dwelling and heavy metal.
Cheers,
JFF

[neilgin1]

Finishes his spew with "Cheers". typical wimp passive agressive sign off, to which my simple reply is, "kiss my azz".