Retirement Advice

[Treetop]

I see lots of goats go for 300 plus. depends on the genetics. random goats without pedigree arent worth so much.

[AdamsSamoa]

Love the "Smokin Hot wife".... one of my favorites.... Gentlemen start your engines...

[InfleXion]

I could see the ounce of silver per person per day being necessary with the amount of buying power that silver has today, but in ancient times people worked a whole day for about a silver dime's worth.

Granted there are people who probably still make about that much money in their native currency, so these are the two sides of the spectrum IMO. In a rudementary way, the difference is basically between an ounce of silver lasting you a day vs. lasting you a week.

For folks like me who believe silver is massively undervalued, a target of 1,000 oz is something I am comfortable with stopping at, but I'm also comfortable going beyond that.

For folks who may just be wanting to preserve their wealth against inflation, figuring that silver's buying power will remain about static, I suppose if you were going to rely on nothing else then 10,000 oz ought to last you about 25 years.

Something else to consider is that if you aren't working for a living, that frees you up to turn your hobbies into an entrepreneurship to supplement your retirement funds if you want to.

[68Camaro]

The goal you select depends on how you want to live: do you want to live like the dime per day ancient laborer, or more like the middle class that most of us have lived our entire lives? 1000 oz for a couple, 500 oz per person, to last several decades, is a slim margin of living unless you are already semi-self-sufficient, or unless silver goes to gold levels of value. We know that gold levels for silver are possible, but do you want to bet your life on that when you don't need to?

[TXBullion]

I'm not going to pull the charts but my guess is that silver has had historically more volatility then the dollar. I feel that if you ask me what the value of a dollar will be next year , I would guess 3% less than it is next year and 3% less the year after that. If you ask me what silver will be next year, I would guess 10 or I would guess 25

Normalcy bias ...... There is tremendous risk in some of the advice provided here. You have to understand each instrument and the purpose of each instrument. Silver is a hedge , it's an insurance policy, it can have industrial use. To think you can plan a retirment of something that goes up or down 100% in a year or two is the craziest thing ever if the measure of relieve Value has not done the same. This thread is attempting to standardize it as a primary means of currency. That is what the dollar is for. It is an accepted means of trade. Silver is not. you will need to convert your silver to a useable standard ( the dollar ) for most anything today.

You are trying to peg silver as a fixed instrument which it is far from that. It is extremely volatile and to day 1 oz per day or 5 per day is not possible to make an accurate predictioN.

And side note, in hindsight I wouldn't be surprised to find out we are actually in a deflationary enviro right now but I'm just trying to make an illustration.

[68Camaro]

Historically over hundreds of years there has been near zero volatility between PMs and world currencies (which were backed by them) including the dollar, until the bankers decided to de-peg the dollar from anything real and make it fiat. While - granted - that manipulation has created some wild swings in the that conversion ratio during selected periods over the past 35 years, including the past 6, the long-term trend has only been in one direction, and only if you "sell" low and are concerned about the very short term does one (in my opinion) have much risk. Drawing conclusions on the meaning of PMs based on those events will lead one to an incorrect conclusion. A few unfortunates could have timed it exactly wrong and invested their life savings late in their life all at once in 2011 at gold 1900/silver 50, and been left biting their nails during the past 5 years, but that move is not what the suggestions presented above are about (and I say that even as someone that bought a few ASE rolls in the upper 40s).

Keep in mind that the dollar has been devalued 97% over the past 100 years, while PMs have maintained essentially their same trade value. Which of those is the crazy path? It's not the PMs. It's anyone putting significant long-term faith in a fiat USD.

Even then, in normal times holding money (even fiat) for extensive periods of time is not a solid recommendation. One would normally invest in a capital creating proposition. But these are not normal times and any electronic investment is now at risk. Sorry - the world is crazy, the country is bankrupt but just hasn't realized it yet, bail-ins are likely (having already been experienced in other countries) and a stock market collapse of record size (60-80%) is nearly assured within the next 5 years (if not this year), and the remaining odds are worse, such as a fall into totalitarianism or a world war.

We have different views of the dollar. When I was young it was backed by gold and silver. Now it is toilet paper backed only by a temporary set of oil agreements with middle eastern nomads who will sell us out at the first possible opportunity, and the only thing we have left is our military, which is only good as long as we continue to invest in it - and we're no more than 10 years ahead of our competition there, and even at that our enemies are willing to sacrifice their people for advantage, and the numbers aren't on our side for long there.

But - that's just my two cents. I would rather be wrong. But hope for the best and prepare for the worst is my byline. However everyone needs to do their own due diligence, and take the path their logic and intuition says is most likely the best for them.

The discussion is good. People can make up their own minds.

[TXBullion]

I agree. Contrast allows people to take what sticks with them.

And the dollar has been pretty consistent in losing value as you indicated. While that is what it is, it allows a massive economy to function on those principles. Silver cnt touch what the dollar can do. I'm not saying this in a negative way but in a practical way. You can go buy an industial machine with 700k but no one would take silver on it.

Investments that you understand well, have large margins of safety , have value add propositions and rooms for operational efficiency increase are great in a good market and are great in a bad market , the key is to be able to identify those investments.

There is a time and place for silver , there is a time and place the dollar. It is important ton have an understand of the fundamentals to decide for yourself which is which.

[plus1hdcp]

What a great thread this has been to read. Thanks to the OP and those who have opined.

[Treetop]

The goal you select depends on how you want to live: do you want to live like the dime per day ancient laborer, or more like the middle class that most of us have lived our entire lives? 1000 oz for a couple, 500 oz per person, to last several decades, is a slim margin of living unless you are already semi-self-sufficient, or unless silver goes to gold levels of value. We know that gold levels for silver are possible, but do you want to bet your life on that when you don't need to?

This got me thinking about this from perhaps a slightly different angle. In a more fertile and wet area an acre of orchard can be into the 10s of thousands of pounds of produce/nuts per year. It is lower where I am with more of a push to diversify since some seasons are more extreme at one end or the other with frosts. (high elevation) I have even known people in the low desert using texas pinon, prickley pear cactus with large tasty fruit (AKA tunas in mexico and such places) and moringa. A few others also, and while he wont get yields into the 10s of thousands of pounds per acre I expect it should prove relatively reliable. Land is also much cheaper there.

I generally personally think of small scale stuff like this as buffering or partially replacing a persons source of food, but an acre in a more fertile place or a few in a more extreme place can equate to a similar value as that original 1oz per day for a person in the OP. Obviously there are complicating factors, but even giving someone half the crop to harvest for you as you age it could be a pretty big deal. Other issues are pests, to ensure it isnt a major amount of work you need to take the time to pick things that locally have low or no pest issues. That can be tricky but doable.

Also if you plan to potentially sell things from said orchard, might be good to focus on nuts because they generally store better and if you are small scale you might have a bit of time finding a buyer, or waiting for a better price perhaps. Of course fruits and berries can sell well per pound, so certainly marketable. Food also rises with inflation of course so in this mindset somewhat of a hedge itself. Also find the right buyer for the land and its value is drastically increased with the trees.

To think you can plan a retirment of something that goes up or down 100% in a year or two is the craziest thing ever if the measure of relieve Value has not done the same. This thread is attempting to standardize it as a primary means of currency. That is what the dollar is for. It is an accepted means of trade. Silver is not. you will need to convert your silver to a useable standard ( the dollar ) for most anything today.

You are trying to peg silver as a fixed instrument which it is far from that. It is extremely volatile and to day 1 oz per day or 5 per day is not possible to make an accurate predictioN.

While I would agree that the dollar is the currency of the land and the one you create or earn wealth in, I would also insist the dollar is in a rather unstable place. It currently holds the role of global reserve, which looking at BRICS statements appears to have a shelf life for this role. Our debt based growth economy cannot be sustained at this level I expect, not sure how it could last forever. What will be the trigger for the dollars reset or replacement? pffft I can only guess but as I see it this is inevitable. So how could one possibly base a retirement on the dollar when its future is in question at such base levels???

So for me wealth creation not based on just paper investments and historical charts of what paper investments "should" do is as close to a reliable retirement plan as exists in the current paradigm imo. The dollars future isnt certain at all. Land is taxed, probably shouldnt own much or any past what you need for a home if your not setting it up for production. Trees/bushes done right being the most passive and often most reliable with low inputs.

Obviously people should make up their own minds but for me there really is only silver and gold as a means to store wealth. I agree silver can be very volatile but I know the dollars place is as well. Im not convinced old models of retirement are assured to work decades into the future within our current paradigm. I expect production of some type might be needed. could be rented properties or many other things but something that produces wealth. On longer timescales has silver and gold are thus far proven as stores of wealth I dont see any reason this has changed even with the volatility.

[TXBullion]

Note to self- dont type on phone....

Dollar is unstable. As indicated, it has lost 97% or whatever the number is of its purchasing power. There is lots of counter party risk in the dollar.

You are not wanting to base your retirement in dollar or silver solely. Each has a purpose and a place and you need to know that of each.

Wealth creation doesn't need to be paper investments. Land is taxed but can also produce /generate. Taxes have risk to them but its a cost of doing business. Just like if I own a log splitter, I have to pay for maintenance and gasoline , they are the cost of doing business.

Models for retirement will change, future will change etc. You are referencing longer timescales. What good is a 2000 year timescale when someone live for 70 or 100 years?

You use the term store wealth. Store of wealth is not trying to figure out how many ounces i need to liver per day ( estimate 5) and figuring out how to get to 5 . Thats called living paycheck to paycheck except in the form of silver...... There is no wealth in that....

[beauanderos]

I keep hearing talk of "retirement." Wake up and smell the roses, guys. There will be no retirement in the future (maybe a decade away). Social Security
will not pay out (they're broke)... and even if they do, it will be in highly devalued fiat currency which in no way will keep up with hyperinflation. The
present generation of retirees is, for the most part, hugely disillusioned after having their carefully followed plans wreaked havoc upon, first by having
their accts chiseled down significantly post 2008, and now by ZIRP... soon to be NIRP.

I fully expect to be working until I can't anymore, whether that be 70, 75, or 80. "Retirement" was an ephemeral idea of mostly the generations of our parents
(for some, grandparents). Talk about normalcy bias. Everyone on this site thinks they will get to enjoy some type of individually visualized "rosy retirement"
where they get to go hunting, fishing, golfing, cruises, etc... and just sit back as the checks roll in. Uh uh, ain't gonna happen. Get ready for a paradigm
shift. Check out the "retirement" status of citizens in present day third world countries... and then fast forward ten years. We'll be in the same boat by then.

[TXBullion]

I would note count on SS for retirment. Maybe as a part but you need to make plans that don't put your future at the mercy of someone's choice. Get out there and hustle , come up with plan b and plan c. The people I see who retire with nothing to do seem to go in decline. the ones who have obligations , commitments , meaning and purpose are the ones who seem to keep on chiving on

[beauanderos]

I would note count on SS for retirment. Maybe as a part but you need to make plans that don't put your future at the mercy of someone's choice. Get out there and hustle , come up with plan b and plan c. The people I see who retire with nothing to do seem to go in decline. the ones who have obligations , commitments , meaning and purpose are the ones who seem to keep on chiving on

Good observation. I don't count on SS at all, not expecting them to be paying out anymore in five years when I could supposedly collect a pittance from them. I retired from Fire Dept after 34 years, lucky that I was an RN and can continue that until I drop (18 years so far). I know at least ten ex-coworkers who either committed suicide, became drunks, or gained like a hundred pounds after retiring and having little purpose. You can't play golf or fish every day: I would think that most folks would want to feel like they are still contributing in some meaningful fashion to society after leaving their primary jobs. Helping raise grandchildren, volunteerism, etc. My rant on retirement is only meant towards our current living generations, who somehow feel a sense of entitlement to some kind of plush retirement, merely because their parents might have experienced something similar. Except for the second half of the last century, people always worked until they no longer could, at which time their extended families either took care of them in their dotage... or they were left to fend for themselves eventually starving to death

[Treetop]

Everyone on this site thinks they will get to enjoy some type of individually visualized "rosy retirement"
where they get to go hunting, fishing, golfing, cruises, etc... and just sit back as the checks roll in. Uh uh, ain't gonna happen. Get ready for a paradigm
shift. Check out the "retirement" status of citizens in present day third world countries... and then fast forward ten years. We'll be in the same boat by then.

I dunno, no one here really talked about a standard retirement at all unless I missed it. Most discussed having enough silver for day to day expenses. I basically told people to set up an orchard or other way to generate wealth to work until they fall over. I never expected SS to exist for me as I age since I first paid into it at 13.

[beauanderos]

You, Zach, have expertise that I sorely envy. I would love to have your knowledge and acreage to put it to work. About as good as I hope to be able to do is buy land and
rent it out to organic farmers and accept some of the food as payment. Retirement is a sore point with me, as I am heavily taxed for SS, but am unable to draw but a
pittance from it as they subtract half my small fire pension from anything that I would be eligible for. That would leave me $140 a month if I retired at 66. Thread drift,
my bad.

[JadeDragon]

Goats will eat blackberry bushes so they should like raspberries too.
Silver is volatile, Gold less so, but I figure that accumulating enough silver amd gold to live for a year on (over some years at various prices) is accumulating enough to live for a year on at pretty much any point in the future, assuming one can sell it off in an orderly manner at various prices over several years. The Hunt bros silver event was an anomaly likely not to repeated. Outside of that, a given amount of silver and gold will buy about the same basket of other stuff on average at any given time.

[reddirtcoins]

land.. feed yourself.. amass something that generates an income like rental property. metal is great but don't stop there.

[amalekidad]

beauanderos - thread drift is not only allowed, it’s encouraged! Besides you didn’t do any thread drift. ‘Retirement’ is what I’m talking about. I don’t see how I can ever retire. Besides, every time I start to slack off, the Smoking Hot Wife threatens to make me do more work on the ‘hobby farm.’

Y’all are great. Jade Dragon, said what I’m thinking. What I can sell an oz of Ag for will buy about the same amount of wheat (insert commodity name here) as I was able to buy when I bought the Ag. Regardless of price! Yes, I’m talking on average – every single transaction will be an exception.

BTW, the goats that my wife has are ‘exotic’ Nigerian Dwarf goats. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-SU3CwdvPEU These are my grand’kids’ playing with the goats.

[beauanderos]

beauanderos - thread drift is not only allowed, it’s encouraged! Besides you didn’t do any thread drift. ‘Retirement’ is what I’m talking about. I don’t see how I can ever retire. Besides, every time I start to slack off, the Smoking Hot Wife threatens to make me do more work on the ‘hobby farm.’

Y’all are great. Jade Dragon, said what I’m thinking. What I can sell an oz of Ag for will buy about the same amount of wheat (insert commodity name here) as I was able to buy when I bought the Ag. Regardless of price! Yes, I’m talking on average – every single transaction will be an exception.

BTW, the goats that my wife has are ‘exotic’ Nigerian Dwarf goats. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-SU3CwdvPEU These are my grand’kids’ playing with the goats.

cute little suckers, particularly when they bound.

[68Camaro]

Dang - they're like dogs...

[deacon]

Gold and silver aren't investments. If anything they are speculations. Why not get a portfolio of diversified funds? 60% stocks, 40% bonds, reduce one or the other for your gold/silver hoard. Fill a 401k first, then your IRA, then taxable account. Consider reading A Random Walk Down Wallstreet, or The Intelligent Investor.
So maybe something like:
30% Total Domestic Stock
20% Total International
30% Total Bond
10% Gold/Silver
5% Cash
5% Other

[Cu Penny Hoarder]

Gold and silver aren't investments. If anything they are speculations. Why not get a portfolio of diversified funds? 60% stocks, 40% bonds, reduce one or the other for your gold/silver hoard. Fill a 401k first, then your IRA, then taxable account. Consider reading A Random Walk Down Wallstreet, or The Intelligent Investor.
So maybe something like:
30% Total Domestic Stock
20% Total International
30% Total Bond
10% Gold/Silver
5% Cash
5% Other

Gold and silver are money, the rest of those things are just paper promises.

Considering what is going on in the US/world today, the consequences of such an allocation could be financially devastating.