Silver @ 27 & a half....

[Jonflyfish]

well, i'll call your BS, and raise it, all in bud, you aint dealing with some hump, pal, that aint been there and done that for many a year, i'm not wasting time going around with you on this, but what is it, about segregated funds you dont understand? open interest and volumne has been down, in every single physical future's market, since MF's implosion and the CME, the CFTC and NFA screwed the pooch on this one. i'm seeing PHYSICAL trading going on at +$5-10 over the 'board' basis March with its 'robust' OI of 55,000 cars, so please dont insult my intelligence. i truly only wish you good fortune in your futures trade, but dont think me your cyber bitch, i been around the game a while now, and the board is turning into a bs pricing mechanism, and if YOU think thats BS, stand for delivery then, watch what happens.
furthermore, its been my experience, as well as the many guys i know, trading the week between Christmas and New Years is for bush leaguer's, so put the "cheer(s)" into this week, instead of the end of your post. Happy New Year.

My point is directly about your claim. You can can say what you want about criminal dealings with brokers, RC members, both financial and physical positions i.e. MF Global, RC members walking from deals when prices fall, tungsten gold or lead silver etc etc. Your claim was about "the board" (Chicago), which actually, we are talking about "the floor" in NY. Stand for delivery, don't stand for delivery, JPM getting their position squeezed to the moon etc etc....ad nauseam rubbish! Truth is in price. By the way, How do physical dealers quote their inventory? Could it be COMEX + a differential. Could large deals be from the London noon fix? Why use such "irrelevant" prices?
There is no insult intended to your pride ego or intelligence. I hope that you may have all that you desire.
Your claim was that the exchange somehow has less "relevance". It is stricly your opinion. There is no evidence otherwise, none. Open interest is a poor argument. When commodity prices go down, spec OI usually does as well, MFG or not. Spec books generally increase positions on bullish runs, where OI tends to increase. Commercial and hedging are different but that does not prove anything about your claim of relevance.
My trades on the CME Group's NYMEX COMEX silver 5k oz contracts will have full relevance and settle mark to market at settlement today- 100% in full. Full confidence and full credit to my avccount period. There is no "less than" about it. I can fantisize about SHTF and how irrelevant my USD balance is but those funds are 100% accepted with all physical sources I deal with as well.

I know of your many claims about all of your experience and how silver was about to rally like wildfire just before it fell off a cliff etc etc but none of that has anything to do with the settlement today and if it will be relevant. The exchange is fully relevant becasue I will get full credit for my trades there. Please provide evidence that my bids and offers that were executed will not prove to be relevant.
55k cars? Are we now talking about ethanol and "THE (Chigaco) BOARD" (of trade) ?...


Cheers!

[Jonflyfish]

$27.19....

Yup. Silver is leaking.................

Don't believe it, whether you are attempting to purchase or make a sale. I learnt that It is "irrelevant".

Cheers!

[Lemon Thrower]

jonflyfish, i largely agree with you but i'm a bit more skeptical of the comex.

first of all, i wouldn't be in futures now because of the hypothecation. even if you have a broker you like, they clear through some scumbag outfit like MF.

ditto with equity positions in margin accounts. all you have is a book entry and your counterparty is your broker, not SIPC or the exchange.

the leverage on the comex is well known. the amount of metal in inventory has been declining steadily for some time now. as the metal disappears, the futures contracts get increasingly divorced from reality and you are basically trading paper betting slips. thats fine if you trust the house.

i suspect that its either a lack of confidence in the comex and/or a premium being paid for phyiscal that has caused the continual shrinkange in inventory. if you disagree, i would be interested to know your ideas why the amount of metal on the comex has been declining.

[Jonflyfish]

jonflyfish, i largely agree with you but i'm a bit more skeptical of the comex.

first of all, i wouldn't be in futures now because of the hypothecation. even if you have a broker you like, they clear through some scumbag outfit like MF.

ditto with equity positions in margin accounts. all you have is a book entry and your counterparty is your broker, not SIPC or the exchange.

the leverage on the comex is well known. the amount of metal in inventory has been declining steadily for some time now. as the metal disappears, the futures contracts get increasingly divorced from reality and you are basically trading paper betting slips. thats fine if you trust the house.

i suspect that its either a lack of confidence in the comex and/or a premium being paid for phyiscal that has caused the continual shrinkange in inventory. if you disagree, i would be interested to know your ideas why the amount of metal on the comex has been declining.

LT- You have some very valid remarks. Hypothecation has been an immediate concern for many. Metal inventory is interesting. Physical assignment and delivery, while being an option, has never been the primary activity of the futures market for many reasons. With prices having soared earlier during the last few years, more have been taking physical delivery. The primary dealers with approved warehouses for COMEX also tend to have the same affiliation in London, which is centered around physical dealing. If/when silver inventory needs to be moved from London to NY, it ships via vessel and not air. Hence, such logistics do require time. Also, if physical delivery is chosen in the COMEX, many parties are farther away than NY which creates added expense. The parties can (and often do) mutually agree to taking delivery at alternate locations as well. To your last point, there has been some backwardation, which suggests the small premium for front dated contracts. This is usually short lived and I wouldn't be surprised if it goes away ratherquickly. Silver has been a poor investment for 2011. Window dressing and allocation shifts both financial and physical tend to shift regularly regarless of some folks' strong desire to believe they should be handsomely rewarded for their ideas that they are married to for a while.

Best to you all and a happy New Year- Cheers!

[slara512]

....March with its 'robust' OI of 55,000 cars,...
later add---correction on the SIH12, thats march Comex silver, open interest at almost 58.000...saw 55 this morning, about 3 AM

Yo Neil, "cars" as in contracts right? I love that term. Floor trader lingo is so much fun.

[neilgin1]

55k cars? Are we now talking about ethanol and "THE (Chigaco) BOARD" (of trade) ?...


Cheers!

boy, didnt i just tell you, we aint going round and round?..there, you got the last lil insult out, run with that, and thank God for fiber optic cables.

[Jonflyfish]

55k cars? Are we now talking about ethanol and "THE (Chigaco) BOARD" (of trade) ?...


Cheers!

boy, didnt i just tell you, we aint going round and round?..there, you got the last lil insult out, run with that, and thank God for fiber optic cables.

Insult? Cheer up mate. Your skin must be VERY thin Neil. As one who pontificates about the greatness of your market prowess, you of all people should know the UOM (unit of measure) for ethanol (29,000 gallons/approx 1 railcar) traded on "The Board" vs silver (5k oz) traded on "The Floor".
Cheers!

[Country]

Bought some more CEF at $18.78.

When the big boys have to liquidate, others may BUY...

[BamaJoe]

Now, now folks. Let's play nice. Myself, I really don't care what it does in the short time, but I do enjoy reading the thoughts of you guys in the matter. I'm just a simple stacker - bought a little here and there since I was a teenager in the 70's, jumped in heavy with about 50% of my assets in 2001, have added monthly since (sometimes a little, sometimes more) and just continue to ride the train.

I've tried the short term trades a little here and there, but soon realized that while I seem to have a good grasp on long term stuff (bailed on tech before the tech bust, got in early on metals and sold a ton to financial before that bust), I truly suck wind at short term timing. Firmly believe that in the long term pm's will do well.

Keep posting your thoughts, I'm sure I'm not the only one that enjoys reading them. Just play nice.

[pennypicker]

I do enjoy reading the thoughts of you guys in the Keep posting your thoughts, I'm sure I'm not the only one that enjoys reading them. Just play nice.

Ditto.....

[texcollex]

I do enjoy reading the thoughts of you guys in the Keep posting your thoughts, I'm sure I'm not the only one that enjoys reading them. Just play nice.

Ditto.....

+1 too

I enjoy reading both of your posts (and those of many others). Still hoping to learn something

[camtender]

Per Harvey Organ Tonight........

Our bankers hit paper gold and paper silver down big time as they knew that they have no opposition in the paper field due to investors leaving the comex because of the MFGlobal scandal. The CME reported very late yesterday evening for the first time since Dec 22.2011. Somehow they did not file Friday Dec 23.2011 inventory movements. When they released Dec 27.2011 last night the registered gold inventory was down to 2.531 million oz from 2.89 million oz. That is a lot of gold leaving and no entry to show for it.

Gold finished the comex session at $1562.90 down $31.90 on the day. Silver fell $1.50 to $27.19. The bankers now feel quite confident to raid as there is no opposition or buyers willing to buy a contract for fear of confiscation. The MFGlobal scandal has certainly done its damage to the gold and silver market.
Now, investors wishing to protect themselves must only buy physical metals and stay away from the paper game. Let's go to the paper comex and assess the damage.

The total gold comex open interest fell by 3802 contracts with yesterday's mini raid. Today's closing level is 418,945 and we are getting quite close to record level bottoms seen when gold was trading much, much lower. The front delivery month of December saw its OI fall from 138 to 88 for a loss of 50 contracts. We had 35 deliveries so we lost 15 contracts or 1500 oz of gold to cash settlements (or they just rolled in disgust) The next big delivery month is February where the OI fell from 244,098 to 240,040 for a loss of over 4000 contracts. The estimated volume today was still on the light side for a raid coming in at 108,364.
The confirmed volume yesterday was very weak at 50,280.

The total silver comex OI surprisingly rose by 1600 contracts to 103,993. The COT report is extremely bullish for silver and yet it shows the OI rising despite a raid. We will have to wait and see what the OI will bring tomorrow night. Not many wish to play with these crooks so it will be an interesting number tomorrow. The next big delivery month is March and here the OI rose 1600 contracts to 57,891 from yesterday's level of 56,287. The estimated volume today was a very weak 30,048 despite a massive $1.50 fall. Nobody is defending the price of paper silver.

http://harveyorgan.blogspot.com/

[Jonflyfish]

I love to read the blogosphere stories about why the prognosticating crystal ball rubbing crowd was "scammed" and "duped" by the "big boy club" whenever their ideas i.e. "let's all take physical delivery of a few rolls of war nickels and squeeze JPM shorts into submission and make silver fly to infinity and beyond" bellyflop. What cartoonish rubbish these fools propagate. What story will they think of next time their investments get halved while they remain delusional with the "If you liked it at X, you'll love it at 0.5X" nonsense? "Um, Let's blame Jon Corzine. That'll make us feel better". The market has been in a decline for quite some time and quite simple and easy to recognize and trade, even though most just ignored it and said "Buy the F'ing dip" because that's what the youtube cartoon said to do. At some point the "dip" wipes out the dips that fell for such foolishness, then market finds a floor and carries on as usual. You don't need to read any story about manipulate this, squeeze that, Buy the F'ing dip, MFG, etc etc. Turn off all the noise that suckers and fools the mASSes and trade what the market offers...Truth in price.

Cheers!

[JJM]

A few hours later and we're under $27... I may get my buying opportunity sooner than I think!

Neil, I thought of you when I read this thread the other day, post #8 specifically, which gets revisited later in the thread.
http://www.thetreeofliberty.com/vb/showthread.php?t=154938
I don't reveal a lot about myself on here, but I think from what you've revealed about yourself that you would enjoy that forum quite a bit.

JFF, I know you have a core position of physical that is yours and yours alone, and I think it's safe to surmise that when trading, you are working with other people's money more than your own. I suspect much of what is the cumulative "worst case scenario" from the doomers on here will someday come to pass. I trust you will be able to care for your family when that day comes. Until that day comes, I'm sure there is mad money to be made on the various markets. I wish you the best!

Hopefully all of us are will be able to take care of our families when those dark days arrive. I don't know the time or the day, but I know it's a lot closer than it was when I "woke up" ~7 years ago, and I believe we will all be living in a very different world in the near future. Whether that near is months (not so likely IMO), years (highly likely IMO) or decades (highly unlikely IMO), I think we will all long for the "good old days" when those dark days arrive.

Until then, let's see some more resistance levels fail, lol...

[Know Common Cents]

Spoke with my local PM dealer. He has quite an enormous supply of physical Au and Ag. He said that it's going to be increasingly painful to sell at these levels if prices continue to slide. If/when that happens, he'll make more and more of it unavailable to the generally dumb public and weekend speculators. Hold on while prices drop, is his philosophy. "Selling more and more with the fall of PM prices (as buyers come a knockin' smelling blood in the water) is just plain ******* stupid."

Regular customers (i.e. known to him for more than one year) will be able to buy at a level of 50% of their largest order for 2011. Cash only. Tough situation to be in on all ends.

[Jonflyfish]

A few hours later and we're under $27... I may get my buying opportunity sooner than I think!

Neil, I thought of you when I read this thread the other day, post #8 specifically, which gets revisited later in the thread.
http://www.thetreeofliberty.com/vb/showthread.php?t=154938
I don't reveal a lot about myself on here, but I think from what you've revealed about yourself on here that you would enjoy that forum quite a bit.

JFF, I know you have a core position of physical that is yours and yours alone, and I think it's safe to surmise that when trading, you are working with other people's money more than your own. I suspect much of what is the cumulative "worst case scenario" from the doomers on here will someday come to pass. I trust you will be able to care for your family when that day comes. Until that day comes, I'm sure there is mad money to be made on the various markets. I wish you the best!

Hopefully all of us are will be able to take care of our families when those dark days arrive. I don't know the time or the day, but I know it's a lot closer than it was when I "woke up" ~7 years ago, and I believe we will all be living in a very different world in the near future. Whether that near is months (not so likely IMO), years (highly likely IMO) or decades (highly unlikely IMO), I think we will all long for the "good old days" when those dark days arrive.

Until then, let's see some more resistance levels fail, lol...

JJM- Thank you for such kind rearks. Yes I believe in this new idea called "moderation in all things" That means I have A LOT of physcal metals, A LOT of food storage and A LOT of financial paper dealings and FRN's.
Oddly, if one were to have believed that the S was going to HTF over the last several months, sold out everything they had and hid in their bunker they would have missed such tremendous opportunity to hedge and shore up a substantially larger amount of physical. Having a diversified plan that allows for additional and regular "rebalancing" (read: Take paper gains and buy physical) instead of curling up in the fetal position and living off the grid, provides a natural hedge for the unknowns (which, by the way, the future is always unknowable).

This provides a comfortable life whereby the family can enjoy the many positive experiences, opportunities and activities that this great nation allows. It's far better in my opinion than dwelling in the negative blither of doomesville and victimizational delusions of pessimistic defeatism. I live in the now and look for current opportunity. There has been more opportunities than most will ever know due to paradigms programmed to seek foolish drivel to support their negativity. You can't help the poor by becoming one of them. You won't ever find me holding a banner supporting haterd in the occupy soup kitchen line demanding handouts provided by those who choose otherwise. Sometimes, I get the impression that good hearted folks get surprised and disappointed when they lose money because they were sold on the constant regurgitation of repackaged disinformation to the point where they made a financial decision that they later painfully regret once the hopium didn't pan out.

Best to you as well.
Cheers!

[Thogey]

I just will never understand (although I really do)how these discussions erupt here.

Is metal 'real' money? I thought that was the theme on this site. What ever happened to 'measure your wealth in ounces"?

If you are borrowing money to bet on metal or speculating on the commodity trade, than your discussion needs to be separate from those of us who use metal as a solid base for preserving wealth.


I really respect the acumen you traders have developed but...for the rest of ya'll
Unless you are seriously committed to learning the dynamics of the commodities market, than don't speculate. Just keep stackin. Time really flies. The KITCO chart becomes history really quick.

Back to basics men: Gold, silver and copper have been money since the beginning of human history. Is that what this is all about? or not?

[Jonflyfish]

I just will never understand (although I really do)how these discussions erupt here.

Is metal 'real' money? I thought that was the theme on this site. What ever happened to 'measure your wealth in ounces"?

If you are borrowing money to bet on metal or speculating on the commodity trade, than your discussion needs to be separate from those of us who use metal as a solid base for preserving wealth.


I really respect the acumen you traders have developed but...for the rest of ya'll
Unless you are seriously committed to learning the dynamics of the commodities market, than don't speculate. Just keep stackin. Time really flies. The KITCO chart becomes history really quick.

Back to basics men: Gold, silver and copper have been money since the beginning of human history. Is that what this is all about? or not?

Thank you for the kind words. I think the discussions get a bit whacky because people think that alter ideas other than physical is akin to mocking one's religion LOL. Some folks just get to heated with passionate ideas instead of moderate balance. Sadly, "money" arguments seem to cause more divorce than any other issue so I understand how some people get perturbed when differing or opposing ideas enter the ring. After all the mere definition of "money" drives some people nearly insane.

I would like to bring up one point however. You mentioned "borrowing money to bet on metal or speculating..." I do not understand. You do not need to borrow money to "speculate" in the financial markets. I don't. I use the financial markets to hedge what's been stackin' on the physical side. In fact, I cringe when I read posts here from folks who rack up their credit cards, borrowing FRN's to bet on physical PM's. Betting and speculation are not mutually exclusive to financial or physical trades. All conversions from FRN to something else with the idea of "wealth preservation" is speculation. Did the poor sap who bought silver at $50 not speculate that he was about to be rich beyond his wildest imagination becasue he believed the price of silver would rocket past $100 then $200 as a gift from JP Morgan? Where did he get such rubbish to believe in and how is that a sound prudent financial decision?
If one believes that gold or silver are "real money" then it is not "stable money" anywhere nearly as close as FRN's which are accepted as negotiable legal tender for all my real estate, food, clothing, utility, transporation, recreation, .50 BMG ammo etc becasue those prices in FRN's do not fluctuate with the volatility anywhere near that of PM's. But every single PM dealer I have ever had dealings with had dialated pupils when I started stacking freshly minted paper Franklins in exchange for physical metal.

Again, I believe in the physical metals, as well as many other things. I'm not here to be a thorn in anyone's side. I consider many folks here to be great friends. I learn a lot from many terrific folks here, including you Thogey.
Thank you for all the great insights and ideas.

Cheers!

[Thogey]

I agree with everything you just wrote. I'm serious about the fact :folks who borrow money, whether it be on the credit card or a margin account, or folks who are in your business are different to we who just keep putting PMs away (I sell some when I need the money regardless of the market).

Some think it's smart to have a pile of PM's.

Yes it is speculating. Every decision in life requires some sort of speculation. But I'm pretty sure you understand that's not my point.

I always thought of this forum as advocating the wisdom of putting away metal for a rainy day, not to get rich beyond your wildest imagination. You have to be skilled,dedicated and lucky to do that.

Is there such a thing as stable money?


Now I see a lot of hand wringing over the markets when the markets are seen here as 'rigged' institutions and not to be relied on. I just don't understand the contradiction.

I'm glad you can settle daily and sleep at night.

[JJM]

26.97

I'm more curious if JFF senses blood in the streets yet!

[Treetop]

. Yes I believe in this new idea called "moderation in all things" That means I have A LOT of physcal metals, A LOT of food storage and A LOT of financial paper dealings and FRN's.

Sounds like you still need to put in some orchard trees presuming you have some land even if you dont garden...

Im in the camp that thinks fiat is destined to fail or atleast inflate greatly. However I dont think it will be a road straight to failure. I think manipulation is possible if not likely, but theres really nothing new about that. I think there will be many counter intuitive turns on our road to whatever is next.

to me the entire federal reserve is manipulation. instead of the regular booms and busts we had with gold and silver as money, we now have a steady inflation. Keeps us all on the hamster wheel and many of the people unable or unwilling to prepare for their own lives dependent on SS in old age. As inflation has built on itself over the year it played heavily in the need to outsource work, and for people to choose the slave made good over american made goods to maintain an equal quality of life. with globalism came international concentrations of power. Study the IMF sometime, international interests have used this tool to subvert countries the world over. a bill of goods was sold but almost every instance what happens is economic slavery and the selling off of a countries resources or rights to international players. Our media (corporate owned) plays a great role in mis leading and ignoring this. Study it in depth yourself, there is no denying it in the world. If you dont believe it, you simply have been mis lead or havent studied it. Its little reason people believe conspiracy stuff like the illuminati and such. But powerful interests have always guided things as much as they can towards their own interests. or many of them.

I was always a firm believer silver would shoot to the moon. And though I do believe manipulation is likely I dont exactly think that is the reason I now question that to some degree. If silver is 130 bucks what will a quality shovel cost? Or a gallon of gas? If those prices inflate with the metals then we are talking preservation only. But if we face a deep depression or worse then how many will even be wealthy enough to want metals over goods or food? I doubt it would be traded as an actual currency in day to day exchanges unless society ripped apart at the seams and was later somewhat flowing again....

So i still like having some metals around and think they will retain value through any major issue, but I now doubt they will increase my buying power significantly unless i catch a swing up as when it jumped to nearly 50 awhile back....

I am a conservative fellow and now hold my wealth in things like land, and a working on producing food for myself, but also for trade. Imo we face some challenging issues as a country, and though this country has a high percentage of the most ingenious humans out there in this world, weve got a lot of losers and entitlement minded folks to. People who think society owes them a ride rather then a safe medium to make their own ride. so Im not completely convinced we will adapt well to any of the issues we face as a nation. Especially the debts we have. the social spending and world police gigs we simply cannot fund forever. the fact our credit rating could be downgraded, and the BRICS nations moving on the dollar. The growing globalization trend, who the heck wants to compete with slaves? energy issues.. etc etc etc.. So my investments are geared towards making ME a producer. No matter what happens people need food. Good, great, bad horrible. We need food. Luckily I worked on a farm as a teen, always it neded to be a farmer/ homsteader anyway. I just wandered around the country for awhile in the middle playing before i settled and grew some roots....

Ive learned a lot from everyone here. I quoted you jonflyfish, because though it might not sound like it at all, I learned a few things from you to. Whether or not I took from it what you intended. I know you an neilgin disagree a lot, but I learned a lot from both of you. Honestly Ive wandered around many forums in my day.. and this is the best groups of guys out there imo. I guess copper attracts good folks.

[Jonflyfish]

. Yes I believe in this new idea called "moderation in all things" That means I have A LOT of physcal metals, A LOT of food storage and A LOT of financial paper dealings and FRN's.

Sounds like you still need to put in some orchard trees presuming you have some land even if you dont garden...

Im in the camp that thinks fiat is destined to fail or atleast inflate greatly. However I dont think it will be a road straight to failure. I think manipulation is possible if not likely, but theres really nothing new about that. I think there will be many counter intuitive turns on our road to whatever is next.

to me the entire federal reserve is manipulation. instead of the regular booms and busts we had with gold and silver as money, we now have a steady inflation. Keeps us all on the hamster wheel and many of the people unable or unwilling to prepare for their own lives dependent on SS in old age. As inflation has built on itself over the year it played heavily in the need to outsource work, and for people to choose the slave made good over american made goods to maintain an equal quality of life. with globalism came international concentrations of power. Study the IMF sometime, international interests have used this tool to subvert countries the world over. a bill of goods was sold but almost every instance what happens is economic slavery and the selling off of a countries resources or rights to international players. Our media (corporate owned) plays a great role in mis leading and ignoring this. Study it in depth yourself, there is no denying it in the world. If you dont believe it, you simply have been mis lead or havent studied it. Its little reason people believe conspiracy stuff like the illuminati and such. But powerful interests have always guided things as much as they can towards their own interests. or many of them.

I was always a firm believer silver would shoot to the moon. And though I do believe manipulation is likely I dont exactly think that is the reason I now question that to some degree. If silver is 130 bucks what will a quality shovel cost? Or a gallon of gas? If those prices inflate with the metals then we are talking preservation only. But if we face a deep depression or worse then how many will even be wealthy enough to want metals over goods or food? I doubt it would be traded as an actual currency in day to day exchanges unless society ripped apart at the seams and was later somewhat flowing again....

So i still like having some metals around and think they will retain value through any major issue, but I now doubt they will increase my buying power significantly unless i catch a swing up as when it jumped to nearly 50 awhile back....

I am a conservative fellow and now hold my wealth in things like land, and a working on producing food for myself, but also for trade. Imo we face some challenging issues as a country, and though this country has a high percentage of the most ingenious humans out there in this world, weve got a lot of losers and entitlement minded folks to. People who think society owes them a ride rather then a safe medium to make their own ride. so Im not completely convinced we will adapt well to any of the issues we face as a nation. Especially the debts we have. the social spending and world police gigs we simply cannot fund forever. the fact our credit rating could be downgraded, and the BRICS nations moving on the dollar. The growing globalization trend, who the heck wants to compete with slaves? energy issues.. etc etc etc.. So my investments are geared towards making ME a producer. No matter what happens people need food. Good, great, bad horrible. We need food. Luckily I worked on a farm as a teen, always it neded to be a farmer/ homsteader anyway. I just wandered around the country for awhile in the middle playing before i settled and grew some roots....

Ive learned a lot from everyone here. I quoted you jonflyfish, because though it might not sound like it at all, I learned a few things from you to. Whether or not I took from it what you intended. I know you an neilgin disagree a lot, but I learned a lot from both of you. Honestly Ive wandered around many forums in my day.. and this is the best groups of guys out there imo. I guess copper attracts good folks.

Many thanks Treetop for the generous kind remarks. Agree with so much of what you posted. As odd as it sounds these days, I love gardening for fruits and vegetables. I had better. Grew up raising thousands of acres of grain and Russet "spuds" every year.
As for the IMF, what a distaste for such a mechanism for enslaving developing countries. It is quite an eye opener out of desperation that the ECB has looked to the IMF as a funding source. If that doesn't signal any concern, I don't know what could/would. The Fed is manipulation. By charter that is there goal. Inflation is the only guarantee with a fiat currency. Without it the currency can't even exist. How do you pay interest on the principal? The only way is to create it, over and over and over again via indirect Fed/Treasury relationships or charter members supporting fractional reserve banking with base money increases from velocity which hasn't been happening for a while but demand eventually returns with economic expansion. Keep Fed rates near zero and eventually demand returns however cyclical in nature it is. Interestingly, There is real peril for 10 yr treasury rates to begin rising past 2.00%. This can really cause a riff. USD could see a lot of strength from this possibility and assets sold heavily. Of course I may be 100% wrong on that. As for the disagreements with Neil, I do not take them personal. The market is the ultimate arbiter. The track records speak for themselves.

Thanks again.
Cheers!

[Jonflyfish]

26.97

I'm more curious if JFF senses blood in the streets yet!

Thank you JJM for the curiosity. I'm flattered that you are interested. I think posting market views, trades, hedges and themes are all welcomed more elsewhere. I'll work on that for those interested.
Best to you.
Cheers!

[theo]

I love to read the blogosphere stories about why the prognosticating crystal ball rubbing crowd was "scammed" and "duped" by the "big boy club" whenever their ideas i.e. "let's all take physical delivery of a few rolls of war nickels and squeeze JPM shorts into submission and make silver fly to infinity and beyond" bellyflop. What cartoonish rubbish these fools propagate. What story will they think of next time their investments get halved while they remain delusional with the "If you liked it at X, you'll love it at 0.5X" nonsense? "Um, Let's blame Jon Corzine. That'll make us feel better". The market has been in a decline for quite some time and quite simple and easy to recognize and trade, even though most just ignored it and said "Buy the F'ing dip" because that's what the youtube cartoon said to do. At some point the "dip" wipes out the dips that fell for such foolishness, then market finds a floor and carries on as usual. You don't need to read any story about manipulate this, squeeze that, Buy the F'ing dip, MFG, etc etc. Turn off all the noise that suckers and fools the mASSes and trade what the market offers...Truth in price.

Cheers!

Your suggestion that some in the blogosphere seem to have a continual upside bias concerning PMs has merit. I agree with them in the long-term in that as long as the government spends and prints, hard assets will do well. However, they have severely under-estimated the downside pressures on PMs, be they manipulation or deflation. As recently as Thanksgiving some were confidently calling for $1800 gold and $40 silver by years end; now we'll be lucky to hold $1500 and $25.

However, Jon, I believe you have a bias of your own. You have a lot of experience trading in the paper markets which has confirmed over and over again that the paper spot price is genuine. The very suggestion that the gold or silver spot price might not reflect actual physical supply and demand is on par with repealing the theory of gravity. It sounds like classic normalcy bias.

I obviously don't have your knowledge and experience, but shouldn't the Comex have enough say. . . physical silver on hand to settle all trades with the physical metal if necessary? But we know (as does the Comex) that the vast majority of trades are settled with currency. Given that knowledge wouldn't there be a temptation to have enough unencumbered physical metal to back up only 10% to 20% of the trades while selling or leasing out the rest? Afterall this is the principle used by our banking system. Now if the Comex doesn't have 100% of the physical metal then the spot price does not accurately reflect the physical supply and demand. Please correct me where I'm wrong.

[camtender]

I love to read the blogosphere stories about why the prognosticating crystal ball rubbing crowd was "scammed" and "duped" by the "big boy club" whenever their ideas i.e. "let's all take physical delivery of a few rolls of war nickels and squeeze JPM shorts into submission and make silver fly to infinity and beyond" bellyflop. What cartoonish rubbish these fools propagate. What story will they think of next time their investments get halved while they remain delusional with the "If you liked it at X, you'll love it at 0.5X" nonsense? "Um, Let's blame Jon Corzine. That'll make us feel better". The market has been in a decline for quite some time and quite simple and easy to recognize and trade, even though most just ignored it and said "Buy the F'ing dip" because that's what the youtube cartoon said to do. At some point the "dip" wipes out the dips that fell for such foolishness, then market finds a floor and carries on as usual. You don't need to read any story about manipulate this, squeeze that, Buy the F'ing dip, MFG, etc etc. Turn off all the noise that suckers and fools the mASSes and trade what the market offers...Truth in price.

Cheers!

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