My Opinions and Fears about Numismatics

[Silver_Stampede]

Let me start this off by saying that I am a relative newbie to the coin world, but I am absolutely enamored by numismatics (been collecting PMs and coins for 2-3 years). I love everything from the historical stories, key-dates, dmpl, and on and on.

While I have a significant investment in numismatic coins, the vast majority of my holdings are in precious and base metals, the main reason for this being that PMs and base metals have intrinsic value. The thoughts and stories of counterfeits has scared the hell out of me regarding numismatics. Take for example the 1909-S VDB or key date Morgan dollars, possibly the 2 most counterfeited coins on the market. With better and better technology will come better and better fakes, so who is to say one day they won’t be able to make them to the exact specifications of a real coin? I have heard stories of other collectibles that have become worthless due to fakes diluting the market, and experts were no longer able to tell the difference between them anymore.

I have heard some people say that it is impossible to make a coin EXACTLY like the original, because there are always small intricacies that will be missed. However, I don’t really buy that. People at PCGS and NGC are only human, and if a coin is made well enough I believe they won’t be able to tell. For all we know there are fake coins out there in real slabs. On top of this there is the fake slab issue. The safety net of having your coins graded may no longer be applicable anymore if the fake slabs are perfected as well. What actions could PCGS and NGC possibly take to combat this? It doesn’t seem feasible to do a carbon dating test on every coin to determine its real age!? And how crazy will they have to go with their slabs to prevent them from being counterfeited as well?

When I watch a video like the one below of the minting process, it makes me think that if a team of professionals with the proper equipment made an effort, they could whip out 1909-S VDBs like it was nothing. Is it really that hard to make a very high resolution copy of a BU 1909-S VDB and then transfer that image onto a steel die? I am sure people on this forum even have the capacity to do it, not to mention the “master engraver” in the video. It seems like most of the fakes are coming out of crude operations in China, but even with limited resources they are producing some quality fakes in many respects. If it weren’t for this issue I would gladly embrace numismatics more openly, but it is because of this that I feel so much safer in PMs.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oRAO5blPxw8

When it comes down to it, if fakes eventually ruin the market, people will be left with a 1909-S VDB worth 3 cents of copper. A 100 oz silver bar can be faked, but the silver content can never be “re-created”, so if you have the real thing you will forever be safe. With any investment comes risk, but I am not sure what to think of this issue. Please enlighten me with your numismatic knowledge and opinions, and sorry to be a downer on the issue of numismatics!

[ed_vantage17]

I've thought the same thing. I saw a clip on counterfeit Morgans a while back and the "give away" was that they weren't made of silver, but they LOOKED real good. If "they" made them out of 90% silver blanks instead of whatever they used they could've turned quite a profit.

[barrytrot]

Just buy coins that are certified by PCGS or NGC.

Make sure you verify the certification number first and you are golden.


Fakes will ruin the *raw* market, and probably already do. Although studs like Rodebaugh use that to cherry pick profits of course


Fakes will never have a significant impact on the certified market since even though you can copy the "case" you can't also copy the real certification number for the coin.

[Market Harmony]

There is also a flip side to this. Coins that have a provenance, "official" photo (for comparison), or additional anti-counterfeiting measures (like RFID's in the slab, or electronic "fingerprinting") should be of significant value because their authenticity is 99.99% certain. These coins should hold their value better than anything else. And these coins are typically the best out there, costing tens or hundreds of thousands to million+ dollars each. These are the true rarities and the ultimate numismatist's goal.

As far as the raw coin market goes, I doubt that counterfeiting would have any major or even significant market impact. Many coins trade as a slight premium to melt value. Perhaps this premium could change, but doubtfully. The pros, like Rodegrader, will confidently buy raw coins and then send them off to be authenticated and professionally grade-verified. He'll make money because of his knowledge. That's what is truly valuable... knowledge. It is why the pros always tell you, "buy the book before the coin"

The fakes are out there, but they are not perfect. A knowledgeable mind, and a trained eye will find the majority of these counterfeits. And the rest that make it through... well, if nobody can tell it is a fake, then doesn't that make it real?

[Rodebaugh]

The pros, like Rodegrader, will confidently buy raw coins and then send them off to be authenticated and professionally grade-verified. He'll make money because of his knowledge.

All hail King Rodebaugh.....

With that said.....I do have something to come clean on.

I lost an arm wresteling match with Market Harmony this past weekend. I had a couple IPA's in me telling me I was tough.....I was talking trash.....and he was kind enough to put me back into my place with fair amount of ease......and yes there was a witness


As for the Numi worries.....shake it off.....buy what you like....it will be fine.

[No82s]

Numi coins are great as long as there is a market. However if its WTSHF you worry, in the the end scenario they will only be worth bullion.