Putting just gold and silver in one basket?

[50centsaver]

Everyone's heard the logic "Don't put all your eggs in one basket," meaning diversify just in case PM don't work out. Have some land, some cash, some PM, some survival supplies, etc.
It is my strong hunch that you won't go wrong if you do put just PM- gold, silver, copper, and nickel in one basket. Real wealth of worth, according to everyone on this forum is PM. I've read many places (inclu on this forum and elsewhere) that for many years to come, PM will continue to go up in value. Maybe they'll dip here and there, but continue to trend up for a long time. Thoughts?

[68Camaro]

Don't count on PMs to get you THROUGH a time of major crisis. Their major function is to protect wealth until you get to the OTHER SIDE of trouble, where you can then use it to re-purchase capital growth assets and means of production. That means that DURING any trouble you will need to already have food, water, shelter, protection, etc.

[50centsaver]

But couldn't some PM be used during times of crisis to cash in or even use directly to purchase goods like food, gas, essentials?

[68Camaro]

But couldn't some PM be used during times of crisis to cash in or even use directly to purchase goods like food, gas, essentials?

Sure, if someone will take them for a reasonable trade. But for a brief time of confusion, goods themselves will be worth more than PMs.

[Lemon Thrower]

i have some preps but i generally agree with you. but i disagree re copper and nickel - they are base metals. while real assets, they are not pm's.

[Treetop]

But couldn't some PM be used during times of crisis to cash in or even use directly to purchase goods like food, gas, essentials?

Sure, if someone will take them for a reasonable trade. But for a brief time of confusion, goods themselves will be worth more than PMs.

i will say you could easily be right on... however what makes you think it would be brief? We have a country with 300 million people whom all need food. We have a food system that wouldnt work in such times. You realize there isnt even remotely close to enough seed to grow food for all of us that doesnt rely on those HEAVY inputs? Crops selected for high irrigation and synthetic ferts. not that what we have wont grow, it just will have issues and isnt likely to produce as well. Even most gardeners dont save seed.

If we actually truly fall it will be generational. It wont be a year or three of ultra lean times, followed by a rebuild. Only 1 percetnt of this nations grows large amounts of food now. 10 percent have gardened at some level usually a handful of pepper or tomatoe plants. How many can garden without irrigation? How many can garden with low tech irrigation most would be reduced to? How many know how to keep fertility in line under such parameters being that most organic folks rely on outside inputs now???? Nationally we have like 2 months worht of food saved and can easily be outbid in a global market... many of us have stored some food, but how long would it be until a new food system arose? the base of any economy is food. It would be YEARS before even ost of those 30 million gardeners we have could feed themselves even if they all had great land, a range of animals and the right seed selections.

Heck how many know how to manage animals if their local feed store is out of commission????

Keep in mind most of these third world nations we read shtf stories from are WAY WAY closer to their food systems. Many multiples closer.

If we actually fall and our food system unravels, this will be generational. Make no mistake. YOU will have to produce your food. Stores of food extremely unlikely to last the 5-10 years it would take. (with a lot of folks having died in the meantime) unless your gold and silver is cast into bullets, if the food system actually unravels... your metals will be meaningless for a lot longer then you think. food and water will BE the economy. heck most have little understanding of what gold and silver are now. will they care later when 99plus percent of peple are hungry? martial law and food riots? After money just failed them? wearing their 5 year old coat, most of them owning coats designed to last 3=-4 years and be replaced....

Im not saying it WILL get this bad. this is more geared towards if our food system actually falls apart. We have a LOt of people. Much more then hunting or fishing can feed, and due to the nature of how we can grow food, much more then we could easily grow if our current model was yanked away.... with a low number who could still grow well without outside inpputs, or even raise animals for that matter.

[50centsaver]

If it gets that bad, people will be stealing the food out of my garden/others' gardens.
Animal agriculture takes lots more energy, feed, and water than plant agriculture. People will need to transition to a plant based agriculture, which is much healthier anyway.

[Treetop]

If it gets that bad, people will be stealing the food out of my garden/others' gardens.
Animal agriculture takes lots more energy, feed, and water than plant agriculture. People will need to transition to a plant based agriculture, which is much healthier anyway.

animal ag isnt harder. It doesnt take more energy, feed or water... I guess your thinking of the modern feed lot and animals raised on subsidized grain????

animals process plants that grow themselves and humans really dont eat.... They are key in a balanced soil, without much more work anyway, and methods most dont know how to maintain without outside inputs long term.....

who says plant based ag is healthier? Lots of things in animals you cant easily get from plants and I dont mean protein. there is a reason why oldschool farms all had animals. they round it out well. Eating scraps and plants that grow themselves, and giving us the fertility for next years crop thats easy to manage low tech. keep a soil fertile with plants alone, and no outside inputs would be a tricky endeavor.

[50centsaver]

"who says plant based ag is healthier?" There are many who have become informed.

"Lots of things in animals you cant easily get from plants and I dont mean protein." You are mistaken. You aren't alone in believing the protein myth.

We'll just have to agree to disagree. I could give you the links to the truth/facts based on science about human nutrition but this is a metals forum. Thank-you for taking the time to post your survival ideas. It was very much appreciated, and makes me think.

[Treetop]

"who says plant based ag is healthier?" There are many who have become informed.

"Lots of things in animals you cant easily get from plants and I dont mean protein." You are mistaken. You aren't alone in believing the protein myth.

We'll just have to agree to disagree. I could give you the links to the truth/facts based on science about human nutrition but this is a metals forum. Thank-you for taking the time to post your survival ideas. It was very much appreciated, and makes me think.

Well sorry to take your thread of track again then... but..

I know all about the claims of those who dont think humans should use animal products. I wasnt talking about protein, in fact I specifically had said I didnt mean protein because thats the one issue others point to they do address. I mean things like b12 and associated nutrients. there are a few. along with things that keep our hair and teeth stronger. We evolved on an animal AND plant diet. A few have crafted diets that cover most of humans nutritional needs, but those diets wouldnt be so easy to recreate low tech in all parts of the country. Besides you still miss a few things anyway. You realize youll pass on b12 (or other)deficiencies to your kids i some cases? again we evolved on meat. Its a big topic, and Im well versed in it. but as you said its a metals forum, so I will leave it there, I doubt Id convince you anyway, even with the supporting data .

But just back to ease of growing the food in general.... There are still free range animals in use, just not as common as it once was. it will in fact be much easier for people to get back to raising animals on a low outside input basis then it will be the rest of our foods. People are closer to that knowledge then growing plants without outside inputs.(productive levels) It will provide challenges for some parts of the country for sure though.

i was certainly right that maintaining fertility with low outside inputs is multiples easier with animals, then without. not that it cant be done without them. They certainly wont be going away. heck, any gardener could feed a few chickens throughout most of the year on scraps alone. Or a pig for that matter. anyone with a few acres could have a few goats munching on stuff you couldnt use yourself, while providing milk or meat.(its a bit better milk to be drinking as well, although any raw milk is better for you anyway presuming healthy animals and safe handling of the milk) Or with more land horses or cows and the like...

Im big on building food forests (agro forestry) or plains. Ive studied the full cycles of life through an eco system. the different ways the minerals cycle through them. Its a huge topic and not easy to distill, but what I meant to get at is that animals make farming much more efficient and multiples easier to manage long term. plants or animals alone throw it off balance some unless really well managed or outside inputs. Makes sense, these cycles have included plants evolving with animals for a long long time. There is a reason farms in most places had animals historically. Heck even rice growers have their carps swimming around the flooded fields. offering the addition of meat to the same field while also fertilizing the rice.

[beauanderos]

Tacking onto Zac's imput... if TSHTF in the breakdown of the food supply, it would no doubt be worsened by concurrent peak oil ramifications, which, if you haven't already, you need to stay abreast of via the Crash Course (among others) at chrismartenson.com. Peak oil is real, and the sheer dropoff in productivity that he envisions is imminent. Just in time inventory doesn't work without cheap transportation. Walmart has 12,000 mile long supply lines. If the food supply is threatened, I imagine that it wouldn't be too farfetched to see a mass die-off ensue. Food supply will have to be local, and yes, your home-grown gardens WILL be overrun by starving people scavenging whatever they can to survive. If you're weighing the wisdom of purchasing precious metals vs prepping... do so with a grain of salt. Don't go overboard in either direction, you need both, but it is likely that you will become more dependent upon others if you're begging for food. As Chris Martenson points out, the next twenty years will be unlike anything mankind has ever experienced. One final note, in TSHTF scenarios, we're unlikely to have the internet. Allowing for "the greater fool" theory... who are you going to sell your precious metals to when you attempt your exit strategy? Everything we plan bears largely upon a consistent state of normalcy, something I can guarantee we aren't going to have.

[IdahoCopper]

The 40-foot sailing yacht, a distant Pacific isle, and a diet of fish and coconuts is looking better everyday..........~~~~"There once was a mighty sailing man..."~~~

[68Camaro]

...
it wouldn't be too farfetched to see a mass die-off ensue.

Thus, my use of "brief". If things get that bad, I doubt it would be generational. 5 years is my near-worst case view. If it's worse than that, then we've regressed to the middle ages and all bets are off.

[Treetop]

i had a long post typed out on this topic but then my pc crashed. so i will keep it brief.

If the food system actually crashes with the dollar it will almost certainly be generational. I can explain in further detail if anyones interested....

to keep it simple if the country wanted to transfer to all onsite inputs now for some reason, as would be required if our system fell, it would STILL take atleast 4 years, probably more like 8. Its a whole different skillset then the bulk of our farmers know. you realize how few sections of the country even grow grains that would work well in such systems? the answer is few. You realize how many displaced people would head to areas they believe will be growing food whether they are or not? All these third world nations weve read about, they were WAY closer to their food systems, and knew how to grow without such systems. Heck even the bulk of organic growers deal with almost all offsite inputs.

I know scores of homesteaders... Most of them took 4-5 or more YEARS to get their food production online, and they had ready access to seeds, and other materials. Of those who could grow food well during such times and actually have ample supplies of the types of seeds needed, how many will be growing hordes extra for trade? when scavengers may be after visible fields? when their own survival is in question, what would make them willing to trade food for metal?

Obviously lots of variables. Perhaps our government will secure food in some way. Perhaps another nation would airlift it in. Impossible to guess, but if we are left on our own, and the food system falls, we will have a long long period of deep pain. There are many more details leading me to think this then I shared. Masses of dieing wont really speed up such a transition to much. It will just leave us room to grow from, meaning if you picture a 5 year crazy cycle... for most, it will be AFTER that five years the bulk of the food system is re established, and much longer for many other aspects of the economy beyond base needs. you realize how much effort it takes to make simple clothing without machines should we not have them? Other nations will fare better, but what will we offer in trade? (actually metals should work well in that case) Other areas will be different. Most areas simply do not grow a range of foods meeting dietary needs, let alone with systems that would survive a real crash.

[Treetop]

also Im not knocking metal ability at wealth preservation. Im simply making the case that we have issues that could easily make our issues much deeper and longer lasting then most believe, and that metals arent likely to be terribly valuable during that period should our food system actually unravel. Rather then expecting metals to help you produce something later, we will all be better off the more who are productive during such a cycle. Maybe setting up a pond for fish production. easy and cheap to do if you have a pond.... Or a whole lot of other potentials... dont wait for others to rebuilt the economy and for you to join it later. not if you have the choice.

[Sheikh_yer_Bu'Tay]

I am not near as educated on growing crops as Treetop. I have to agree with him on the point he made about how long it takes to get food production up and running. I have been gardening all my life and every time you move and start a new garden plot, it takes years to get the soil in good shape to grow things. The location I am at now has so much clay, I finally gave up and hauled in sandy loam on top of it! Now I have spent 2.5 years working all the organic compost into it I can. Good yields so far, but it isn't perfect yet!

Treetop, start a thread about what you know. Make it a sticky. I would love to read it! Hell, it may grow into a book!

50centsaver, my worst case SHTF scenario has the USA following the fall of the USSR 20 yrs. ago. Lots of people died while lots of other people became rich. You need to have everything prepped, but who can prep everything?! The most important item you need to survive is a well functioning brain.

[theo]

I don't know that an economic/currency collapse will lead to a long-term (generational) disruption of the food supply. I think it is more likely that we will see a series of regional to national disruptions lasting from weeks to months. Even though trillions in paper wealth will have been destroyed, most of the capital that feeds us(land, infrastructure and skills)will still be intact. Food will become more expensive but it will still be available. I agree that rioting may be widespread and destructive, but I don't view total anarchy as a foregone conclusion like Rawls does. Like best case scenarios, the worst case rarely occurs. Something, I like to call the "unexpected positive" occurs. A fortunate event, an inspirational leader, a positive movement will sometimes intervene when we least expect it. You can ascribe it to the grace of God or just dumb luck, but it has happened several times in our nation's history.

[Treetop]

I don't know that an economic/currency collapse will lead to a long-term (generational) disruption of the food supply.

just to be clear the type of things i was talking about, I wasnt saying WOULD happen. rather that it would be that bad IF the food system had toppled. It is indeed possible, its a fragile system in many ways. But its far from a given that it will fall though.

As far as land and skills being intact to feed us... That is dependent on oil. Skillsets based on tractors and chemical inputs bought from a supplier and trucked in. Along with the fact food is a global commodity. We can be outbid. Many other factors could disrupt the system, and if it was disrupted as in no oil coming in to make the chemicals we farm with, the skills you refer to are nearly meaningless.

If food is more expensive as you say what if we cant fund food stamps anymore? What happens? You see riots, are these food riots? Do they disrupt the last minute shipments of foods we have now? Do we have guards at grocery stores? If only 10 percent of those on food stamps couldnt feed themselves without them and we had to cut them what do we do with 4-5 million starving? What do they do?

Lots of other factors, but in a currency collapse its easy to think of many paths to a disruption of our food system, and if that occurred it wouldnt be pretty. Farming without synthetic inputs is MUCH different then farming with them, especially when you must produce your own inputs and dont have seed bred for such systems. If suddenly these social programs failed, it does indeed have the potential to topple our fragile food system. Millions of displaced people. Nothing to loose. It has happened in third world nations relatively often, they just have simpler systems so its not as catastrophic. In fact as far as I can tell food systems usually do fall apart to some degree for some time in many currency collapses historically. Most of the time though it is a much simpler system with WAY more people involved in growing with simpler systems. Obviously what the government does will have major impacts on how such events would play out. Im not anticipating wise decisions there myself.

[hejira11]

I am thinking about a short term scenario-and to that end, I have read that in past crashes in modern history, the nation's coins suffered the least amount of debasement and continued to be used as currency until a new system was in place. That is one reason I hold circulated, non PM coins. My PM's are set aside for the reason Camero stated above.

[Rosco]

It appears that it is [Time to get out of 'Dodge] an start growing your garden, fish pond, livestock herd. Home business that is local resource based now. But at 74 I'm softer than I was 20 years ago, Hoping one of the Sons will go for the move East with Me. All are working an approaching their prime earning years so it will be a very hard decision.
Peace to All!

[melhen26]

Don't forget an appropriate amount of milled steel and copper coated lead

[Mossy]

Back a few decades ago, beef was raised on grass or hay and fattened on human edible grains. That was during the early years when people were screaming about how it took so much grain to raise a beef from weaner to butchering, and they were counting all the wt of the critter. The grain (usually corn) for for fat, not for protein.

Even today, in times of drought, we see in the paper that people raising beef are having trouble finding enough hay to feed them, so we have evidence that that "meat animals are raised entirely on human edible food" is false.

Side note: Cows get little nutrient directly from the plants they eat. They have a HUGE stomach that acts as a fermenter tank that breaks down their food by microbal action, and they get nutrients from the ferment. Sort of like a filter feeder whale with it's own, internal, ocean. Some of those microbes might well be producing proteins the cow relies on, I would not know.