Imminent Silver Correction

[Jonflyfish]

We added long at 28.68

[68Camaro]

What is it gonna take before the dow and pm's stop mirroring each others moves?

(They aren't mirroring proportionally, rather trending same direction. Unfortunately the commodities have a higher amplitude of reaction than USD or Dow. Oil is doing the same thing.)

Yes, JFF, it is a great market for paper PM trading.

And another good buying op for physcial, if you can find it near spot.

[Rodebaugh]

Nice to see longs being added JFF.

[Jonflyfish]

Long gold GC contracts @ 1569.20

[schockergd]

What is your 1mo and 3mo outlook JFF?

I was hoping it would stay $31-$34 for a while, I don't like seeing my investments get close to unprofitability (I'm at around $25/oz on average).

[NHsorter]

What is it gonna take before the dow and pm's stop mirroring each others moves?

(They aren't mirroring proportionally, rather trending same direction. Unfortunately the commodities have a higher amplitude of reaction than USD or Dow. Oil is doing the same thing.)

Yes, JFF, it is a great market for paper PM trading.

And another good buying op for physcial, if you can find it near spot.

I just fear some more bad news and the market pops down to 10900 or something.. what will that mean for silver, low 20's? ouch. There has to be a disconnect at some point, right?

[68Camaro]

Paper and physical will disconnect at the time when most people insist on delivery. Or the existing futures markets will die and be replaced by new exchanges with different rules and closer scrutiny (a new US exchange is being suggested, along with the planned Chinese exchange opening in 2012).

[Jonflyfish]

In the meantime more paper means more physical. I won't be updating any more here but will get back to the questions asked a bit later.

Cheers!

[68Camaro]

In the meantime, I bought paper at 28.88. Wasn't as quick as Jon, but I did have meetings all morning.

[Jonflyfish]

Liquidated on rallies and reloaded just now at 28.57. Won't liquidate this one so fast and won't be able to keep up here.
Cheers

[Jonflyfish]

Changing from net seller to net buy today was a nice paradigm shift.

Cheers!

[Country]

Bought some CEF at $19.60/share.

Looks like the weak hands are being flushed out today.

[beauanderos]

Bought some CEF at $19.60/share.

Looks like the weak hands are being flushed out today.

My thoughts were along the same lines as flushed. "Crap!!!"

[silverflake]

Added some IAU. Now I just have to climb the new wall of worry that the PM ETFs have all the gold and silver they say and keep solvent. Adding when it's low is cool but man, I'd like to see an extended rally some day...

Keep stacking gang.

[fb101]

We just bought some silver @ 28.89

You have no idea how happy it makes me to hear you're buying............

[JJM]

JFF can address this better than I can, but I believe this thread has more to do with the short to mid term machinations of the paper silver market - which may or may not be relevant to holders of the physical metal itself. To wit, I know he's stated that he isn't selling his core physical holdings, regardless of the price swings.

So if you are concerned with the value of your physical holdings, I wouldn't take his last post to mean we've reached a bottom yet either. I'm confident we'll have even better buying points, if not in the weeks ahead, certainly the months.

[68Camaro]

This is all about paper folks. Though if some of this affects physical it can be good if it is actually available and you have the FRNs to buy.

I'm anticipating an intermediate bounce (a possible sell point) followed by (possibly, but not certainly) a further dip (another buy). We'll have to see how the market reacts, what the Euro does to the dollar, and what further bad news (or good news) comes along.

[Jonflyfish]

Many great posts here. I promise to reply soon. One point about paper vs physical etc- In terms of price, the physical is the paper is the physical.
If you don't believe that, call a large, or primary dealer and ask what the price is to buy their physical and how they derived with the quote. Aside from $100 mm+ transactions quoted off the London noon fix, you'll get a quote based off of Comex with a basis. You won't have any of the large dealers tell you "Umm...silver is undervalued. I believe the real value for this fungible commodity ought to be like $130 oz so that's what we are offering". Sure you can imagine TSHTF and postulate what you believe the non-existent future pricing scheme would be but we are here in the NOW with real equity at risk. I'll stick with what the market uses since, after all, a market is an auction. You can believe in manipulation or not. The bids and offers are posted (I post mine just like anyone else)along with the trades crossing.

Cheers!

[Jonflyfish]

Gold : selling pressure will increase again when EUR/USD is trading below the Critical Point at 1.2950. The supporting barrier at 1490.0 // 1515.8 is likely to be challenged.

Cheers!

[TXBullion]

Many great posts here. I promise to reply soon. One point about paper vs physical etc- In terms of price, the physical is the paper is the physical.
If you don't believe that, call a large, or primary dealer and ask what the price is to buy their physical and how they derived with the quote. Aside from $100 mm+ transactions quoted off the London noon fix, you'll get a quote based off of Comex with a basis. You won't have any of the large dealers tell you "Umm...silver is undervalued. I believe the real value for this fungible commodity ought to be like $130 oz so that's what we are offering". Sure you can imagine TSHTF and postulate what you believe the non-existent future pricing scheme would be but we are here in the NOW with real equity at risk. I'll stick with what the market uses since, after all, a market is an auction. You can believe in manipulation or not. The bids and offers are posted (I post mine just like anyone else)along with the trades crossing.

Cheers!

Great post

[TXBullion]

Gold : selling pressure will increase again when EUR/USD is trading below the Critical Point at 1.2950. The supporting barrier at 1490.0 // 1515.8 is likely to be challenged.

Cheers!

Which this comment came a few hours earlier

Oh well, another shot on another day, thanks for keeping us updated with your intel

[Jonflyfish]

Gold : selling pressure will increase again when EUR/USD is trading below the Critical Point at 1.2950. The supporting barrier at 1490.0 // 1515.8 is likely to be challenged.

Cheers!

Which this comment came a few hours earlier

Oh well, another shot on another day, thanks for keeping us updated with your intel

The message was sent long ago friend.

[Jonflyfish]

Added some more silver here at 29.07

[Jonflyfish]

JFF can address this better than I can, but I believe this thread has more to do with the short to mid term machinations of the paper silver market - which may or may not be relevant to holders of the physical metal itself. To wit, I know he's stated that he isn't selling his core physical holdings, regardless of the price swings.

So if you are concerned with the value of your physical holdings, I wouldn't take his last post to mean we've reached a bottom yet either. I'm confident we'll have even better buying points, if not in the weeks ahead, certainly the months.

Yes JJM friend. This is basically correct. Since my professional background is risk management, the natural focus is to do what I know- a physical hedge at primary risk points and converting the hedge effectiveness into additional physical holdings where risk on makes sense.

Cheers!

[Jonflyfish]

We just bought some silver @ 28.89

You have no idea how happy it makes me to hear you're buying............

You are too kind fb101. Best trades to you.
Cheers!