Where is the inflation?

[SilverEye]

Was anyone here alive during the inflation years of the late 70's and early 80's? What prices went up that you remember? I mean specifically what do you remember saying "Hey this was way cheaper last year when I bought it." I can only think of extremely seasonal goods like umbrellas and swimsuits, stuff you would only buy once per year. Cars and houses are bought too infrequently to really have a personal experience with noticing prices. Food we buy so often that if it goes up a penny per pound we don't really notice, what with all the coupons and instore sales and clubcard specials (or green stamps back in the day).

I'm trying to relate where prices are actually going up now to what went up the last time we had double digit inflation. All of us that invest in PM's know that inflation is coming, but what exactly do we look at to notice when it hits? Housing went way up, but then crashed. Gold and silver have gone up, come down a bit, and hovered for a while. Gasoline went way up, came way down, now is going back up. I don't do the grocery shopping in my house so I have no idea what food costs, but I do know that beer is going up. The price of borrowing money is at an all time historical low (as in the prime rate and mortgage rates). The exact same flatscreen TV we bought 2 years ago is now 30% less at Costco, plus it comes with an internet hookup, so the price of electronics are way down.

The US gov't is borrowing like crazy because we are spending like crazy. Everybody knows that we are going to have to crank up the printing presses to pay this all back someday. But it ain't here yet. How will we know when the great inflation has arrived? What prices go up first? What's the canary in the coalmine?

Basically.. Where is the inflation?

[silverflake]

My wife and I do our grocery shopping once every 2 weeks (for the BIG trip). In between we just 'run to the store' for a couple of things. If you do not believe inflation is here, you haven't been shopping. What we have noticed is increased prices on lots of things. BUT here's the kicker. Some things haven't gone up in price per package because they have shrunk the product or package size. So my receipt shows I have paid the same price I always have while the box size is less product. An example? My 2 boys eat granola bars like there's no tomorrow. THE BARS ARE NOW TINY - but, same number of bars in the box for the same price = inflation. Cereal is another perfect example. Hamburger - holy cow (no pun intended) - hamburger is waaAAAAaayy up. Anyhow, anyone else with anecdotal evedence, go ahead and post.

Don't forget GASOLINE...

[mbailey1234]

We use a bunch of corn oil to make kettle corn. Get it in 48 oz containers for easy use. Last year at this time it was $1.69 and now it's $2.99 due to the price of corn. Fryer oil (canola based) for 35# jug has went from $28 to $43. Tires for our 2010 Chrysler van were right at $600 last month. I bought tires 2 years ago for our pickup which are a lot heavier for $480. All beef has went through the roof. The whole ethanol thing is a farce. Using our food supply to make a fuel source that has too be subsidized to make it pencil out. Biodiesel is worse. Corn price went up, and people around here sold the cows to plant crops, then the drought hit down south last summer and finished off the cattle supply. Choice ribeye "on sale" last week for $10.99 at our local grocery store and 2 years ago would have been $4.99 on sale.

Sugar in 25# bags has went from $11.80 a year ago to $16.20 last week.

Utilities, property taxes and food costs have went up and the amount of business has went down at local restaurants so they have all raised their prices. Can't take the family out to eat for under $50 anymore no matter where you go. Not too mention the gas price getting there.

Surcharges on most of the freight we receive have stayed very high.

Health care, insurance and medicine....need I say more about this??

Satellite TV, phone and internet services, our water bill, electric rates have all went up 3%-10% in the last year.

It's not just the grocery stores, check the prices at your local convenience store. Beer, cigarettes, sodas, ice cream everything has went way up.

Lumber has stayed flat or lower for the most part (probably due to depressed housing market) but has anyone bought concrete, rebar, copper wiring, shingles, siding, paint or most other building products besides lumber lately? I use a 2 part macro epoxy from Sherwin Williams quite a bit. 2 gallon kit in 2009 cost $62 and last fall I got another one for $138!

I don't think you have too look to far to see inflation is on the rise rather quickly.

There are some people that still don't get it. One of the guys I used to work with was smiling ear to ear last month when he told me he got a 1.5% raise. Thought it was great. He was making more money than ever now. He did mention how the out of pocket insurance premium cost just went up about 12% and how it used to be a $1500 family deductible but now it's $1500 for EACH family member. Not an issue for him though "since he never goes to the doctor." Thanks, Obama care

[reddirtcoins]

I remember it. I was there and it is worse now. Everything back then was going up unlike today where everything and I mean everything is getting smaller. Sugar 5lbs, HA, It's 3lbs. Coffee, chips, etc..etc.. All of the packages are getting smaller and the price is the same or increasing. Soon we'll have a $10 Happy Meal. I remember pricing because I was in IT working retail in the 80's and 90s', I maintained the pricing. We keep a household budget and the two MAIN things are energy and food. That is what I see killing my household budget. Also have you seen the price of a car lately? I mean what the HECK!@!!@... In the 40's- maybe 80's cars use to cost about a 1/4 of the yearly income. Now they are the yearly income plus. Now a used 100,000 + car is well, way more than I would pay for one.
My Rules----
Rule #1. Do not get into any kind of debt other than a house maybe and I'm starting to question that. Do not hold CC as that is only a means of letting THEM into your pocket. Build a reserve of PM and maybe a little fiat and spread it around. Build food storage and eat out of it.
Rule #2. Refer to rule #1.
Rule #3. Refer to rule #2.
Get the drift? If you have interest on payments you will never have any money. It takes years to save and when you get to a point you want to buy it doesn't seem that interesting anymore.
--off rant..

[inflationhawk]

Over the last year some of highest inflation has been seen in items like gasoline, Peanut butter, Coffee, bacon, lamb, beef...

http://myinflationrate.com/inflation_rate_rankings.php

[Z00]

From Grandpappy's 1 year food supply list:

The original retail price for each food item was established at the beginning of the year 2008 on January 9, 2008. The Total Retail Cost for the entire one-year emergency food supply on January 9, 2008 was $1,385 in the Southeastern United States.


1.Year 2008 Inflation: The total cost of the one-year emergency food supply increased in price by 15.3% or $212 in twelve-months from January 9, 2008 ($1,385) to January 3, 2009 ($1,597).


2.Year 2009 Inflation: The total cost of the one-year emergency food supply increased in price by 6.1% or $97 in twelve-months from January 3, 2009 ($1,597) to January 4, 2010 ($1,694).


3.Year 2010 Deflation: The total cost of the one-year emergency food supply decreased in price by -1.4% or $-23 in twelve-months from January 4, 2010 ($1,694) to January 3, 2011 ($1,671).


4.Year 2011 Inflation: The total cost of the one-year emergency food supply increased in price by 9.3% or $165 in twelve-months from January 3, 2011 ($1,768) to January 2, 2012 ($1,933).


Combined Four Year Inflation: Over the entire four year period beginning on January 9, 2008 and ending on January 2, 2012 the total combined impact of inflation on the One-Year Emergency Food Supply has been 32.6%. In other words, in the United States of America we are paying approximately 33% more for our food every week than we were four years ago. This is significant because most of us in the United States, myself included, have not received any type of pay increase over that same four year period. Although my pay has not changed for four years I still consider myself extremely fortunate because I still have a job and I know that an overwhelming number of people cannot find work of any kind.--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

http://www.grandpappy.info/hfood1yr.htm

[fansubs_ca]

I mean what the HECK!@!!@... In the 40's- maybe 80's cars use to cost about a 1/4 of the yearly income. Now they are the yearly income plus.

I think that's been the case even in the early 90s. That's why there was a downturn in the
car business, the product was so expensive because the industry was so out of sync with
the rest of the economy (the wage differential between a unionized auto worker and most
other workers in other businesses was huge) that only a minority could afford the product.
(Primarily people with government jobs or quasi-government jobs.) Somewhere along the
way debt filled the gap for those willing to use it, which was most people. But now that's
run it's course.

When people saw me using a bicycle and would ask me if I could afford a car I would usually
answer:

I can afford a car, it's the gas and insurance I can't afford.

It's those ongoing expenses that do you in. Though really even buying the car it's self
would represent using a bigger chunk of savings than I can justify at the current slow
"re-building rate". The creeping up of costs and lack of control over how many hours
I get at work means I don't throw off the same amount of surplus as I used to. I'm
rather amazed that I've been able to hold the line so far and not dip into capital.

Back to the original topic the regular price of peanut butter this week was up 32% from
the last time I looked. It gets a bit complicated with sale prices though so I'm unsure if
the impact in overall average price paid will be more or less than that.

[Diggin4copper]

In the 70s and 80s, prices were not bar coded.. a sticker had to be placed on each item. I remember items with 5 or 6 price stickers layered on each other... people would carefully peel the top sticker to get it a cheaper price from an unsuspecting cashier... I remember savings accounts paying 15% interest in the early 80s

[SilverEye]

Good stuff. I'm not seeing all that much in the news about this. Maybe there are articles in the mainstream press on inflation, but they aren't coming across my newsfeed. Just the smaller specialty boards like this one that I'm on.

[franklin]

They won't cover it until it bites them in the butt. They're too busy covering Zimmerman, Prince William, the Kardashians and other non-essentials.

[Treetop]

They won't cover it until it bites them in the butt. They're too busy covering Zimmerman, Prince William, the Kardashians and other non-essentials.

Ive heard of zimmerman from a political forum Im on. never heard of the other two.

I find it weird so many on another forum I am on think inflation isnt happening... oh well.

[SilverEye]

I just saw this article.

http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/breakout ... 20478.html

I'm not the only one that isn't seeing inflation everywhere but knows it's coming.

[franklin]

Go buy some tires for your car/truck. I was in line yesterday to get a replacement for a trailer tire which had peeled and the little lady in front of me was faced with having to make a decision on replacing all of her car's rubber. Cheapest 4 tires for her low profile rims was over $800. She just started crying in line and had to go sit down before making a decision.
Speaking of vehicles: batteries, oil and grease has skyrocketed around here.

[fb101]

this is what I'm seeing myself;
durable goods - ie: appliances
food-- no make that FOOD!
paper goods, clothing, jewelry (no surprise there....)

I was remembering when I was a kid I would snow shovel someones driveway and walkway for 2 bucks.
Which would get me a trip to the movies (50c) popcorn(75c) soda at the soda fountain(15c) 4 comic books(12c ea) and some "penny candies".
I wonder what that would cost today?

Circa 1964/65

[Engineer]

I was remembering when I was a kid I would snow shovel someones driveway and walkway for 2 bucks.
Which would get me a trip to the movies (50c) popcorn(75c) soda at the soda fountain(15c) 4 comic books(12c ea) and some "penny candies".
I wonder what that would cost today?

Circa 1964/65

$2.00 face 90% today is $44. Grown men would be fighting over $44 shoveling jobs today, and you could probably buy the same stuff for those two dollars in real money.

[franklin]

Just got a notice that my internet fee will increase 14.6%.

[justoneguy]

The last time that I bought "Ramen" noodle soup, It was a dime a package. maybe 3 years ago.
yesterday it was 49 cents. ouch

[Treetop]

http://www.businessinsider.com/everythi ... p-prices-1

priced in gold we are facing deflation.