Silver Charts

[mbailey1234]

Not really a firm believer in the technical's on silver but if nothing else is happening in the market they do usually pull some weight. If we could get spot down to around $28-$29 and hold support it makes a really nice inverted head and shoulders pattern. May be a change to snag a few bucks on pop. I went ahead and snagged a few more eagles today just in case this is it so guess we will see.

[SoFa]

I agree the pattern might be forming.

But it may or may not be a good idea to buy silver or an equity as it begins to form the right shoulder though because you're generally looking for a breakout on volume from the neckline. That is what confirms the downtrend is reversed and it's a higher probability trade. But at least you're buying cheaper.

From a technical standpoint, one could also watch for a break above the upper trend line (from Apr/May 2011 to present) to confirm a breakout from the downward channel. Of course, silver could also test the lower line of this channel where the target would be in the low 20s.

[Cu Penny Hoarder]

Technical analysis has it's merits, but the markets are so rigged/manipulated now, TA is much less reliable that it used to be. For those who still use TA, there is strong support at $25-26, which is where I believe Ag is headed.

I cost average in and buy on dips... it's very simple and effective. Keep powder dry in case prices drop even further. Large dips should be viewed as major buying opportunities. Manipulation can be a good thing if you are there to take advantage of it.

[Jonflyfish]

Technical analysis is terrific. I use it exclusively. Seems to have worked out well
Price is the ultimate indicator. Rigged, un-rigged or re-rigged, it's all reflected in price.
Truth in price.
Cheers!

[avidbrandy]

I agree. TA usually is very reliable. What's completely unreliable for the last year with Gold and Silver is News trading. I've noticed the same goes for Forex. currency trading is manipulated just as Gold and Silver are, and both of these, when an announcement like QE in japan or Europe has been made recently, they trade exact opposite of what they should.

TA seems to be one of the few things still keeping gold and silver moving at a rate other than off a cliff usually. even the manipulators follow it still a lot more than common sense.

[Engineer]

Get ready for another smackdown, or if you're the betting sort you can wager your life savings that its already baked in...Bernacke is scheduled to speak today at 2:15.

(I'm expecting a bit of a pop, but that's just based on my gut feelings)

[mbailey1234]

Get ready for another smackdown, or if you're the betting sort you can wager your life savings that its already baked in...Bernacke is scheduled to speak today at 2:15.

(I'm expecting a bit of a pop, but that's just based on my gut feelings)

A pop as in up or a Bernacne pop as in down? And I'm not about to wager my life savings on it. You know how many miles I walked to pick up all of those "pop" cans?

[beauanderos]

Get ready for another smackdown, or if you're the betting sort you can wager your life savings that its already baked in...Bernacke is scheduled to speak today at 2:15.

(I'm expecting a bit of a pop, but that's just based on my gut feelings)

If they feel the "news" would be "gold positive" they will pull the market down first, so that it has a lower base to launch from, if they think the news will be gold negative, they will let the precious metals rise until the announcement, at which time they will crush the prices, telegraphing to the media that "the public" perceives the news to be negative.

[Cu Penny Hoarder]

Get ready for another smackdown, or if you're the betting sort you can wager your life savings that its already baked in...Bernacke is scheduled to speak today at 2:15.

(I'm expecting a bit of a pop, but that's just based on my gut feelings)

If they feel the "news" would be "gold positive" they will pull the market down first, so that it has a lower base to launch from, if they think the news will be gold negative, they will let the precious metals rise until the announcement, at which time they will crush the prices, telegraphing to the media that "the public" perceives the news to be negative.

Very observant and true.

[SoFa]

Get ready for another smackdown, or if you're the betting sort you can wager your life savings that its already baked in...Bernacke is scheduled to speak today at 2:15.

(I'm expecting a bit of a pop, but that's just based on my gut feelings)

If they feel the "news" would be "gold positive" they will pull the market down first, so that it has a lower base to launch from, if they think the news will be gold negative, they will let the precious metals rise until the announcement, at which time they will crush the prices, telegraphing to the media that "the public" perceives the news to be negative.

Looks like they let metals down before and after the bad news.

Or is it good news?

Whatever, it sounds bad for shiny metals.

Fed thinks growth will pick up down the road and that there is some inflation. Not much of a case for QE3.

The bullion dealers said QE3 was in the bag last year.

[beauanderos]

we already have QE3... they just aren't calling it that. Who do you think is backdoor funding the ECB? I'll give you a clue. The Fed already funded 16 trillion to various banks that they didn't want to admit to, the amount now is likely multiples of that. We will pay the price with hyperinflation, sooner or later(sooner). We will have QE to infinity or the entire system collapses, and even unlimited easy money has only a poor chance of keeping things afloat. It's all about kicking the can down the road until the current administration in various countries can survive their terms. The only thing the Fed can do is jawbone. They can't raise rates or the National Debt increases even faster and housing sinks even deeper.

[68Camaro]

Roger that!

How obvious does it have to be to people that we're existing in an economic total house of cards? It's been in the making (sorry for what might seem like a condescending attitude, but the evidence is obvoius) for decades. The end point has been in view for 10 years. The only question has been how long and how fast can they juggle? The politicians and central banks and other power brokers have been masterful at keeping the ponzi scheme going, no doubt about it. And there are certainly people that have been fooled into actually believing that one can make something (money) out of nothing (a printing press, spreadsheet edits). But lacking a fall into a dictatorship (a different fall altogether), I look for don't give it more than 6 more months to (maybe) 3 years tops before we see such obvious signs of economic collapse that even the MSM will acknowledge that we've hit the end.

Why has it taken so long? They are (mostly) on the rule-making side and those that make the rules, win! At least for awhile - until no one else wants to play the game. As soon as enough sovereign governments, major institutions, or even individual investors, decide they are done with the game, it will collapse. So fast that it will be beyond belief. So broad that virtually no one will be unaffected. In fact, now that I bring that up, it's about time for me to doing some other preps.

[Editorial update for clarity, initial post was rushed, finally got back to it.]

[Jonflyfish]

I thought this topic of "silver charts" wouldn't be replete without at least one chart.
This is a simple COMEX futures chart using some technical analysis which shows how to game "The great manipulation conspiracy"
It's fairly simple so it should be self explanatory. The time scale is GMT
Cheers!

[68Camaro]

More power to you Jon. I had mild success (up 20%-ish) last year at working the larger oscillations, until the fall, when I lost the thread and stopped. The smaller ones I can't personally deal with - it's beyond both my available time as well as talent. And I'm increasingly skittish about the market. So hats off to you. I'm largely back to just stockpiling physical.

[Jonflyfish]

Zoom in or zoom out, it's all fractalized and looks self similar, but without scale.
I just enjoy showing that it isn't all some big manipulated conspiracy to destroy he who participates in the markets and that there is opportunity for those who seek it.

Cheers!

[Jonflyfish]

More power to you Jon. I had mild success (up 20%-ish) last year at working the larger oscillations, until the fall, when I lost the thread and stopped. The smaller ones I can't personally deal with - it's beyond both my available time as well as talent. And I'm increasingly skittish about the market. So hats off to you. I'm largely back to just stockpiling physical.

Always glad to hear of a fellow RC'er having success.
Best to you.
Cheers!

[theo]

I'm not sure how your chart demonstrates the absence of a conpiracy. Honestly, I don't have the knowledge to prove manipulation to you or anybody else. I tend to look at it from the standpoint of motive, means and opportunity.

1. Do the banks have motive to suppress PMs? Absolutely, gold at $3000 and silver at $100 would cause many to question the viability of the dollar and the current system that banks profit from begins to fall apart.

2. What about the means? Isn't JPM the custodian of slv? Doesn't it hold a large concentated short position? Don't large traders in a relatively small market have the power to effect the spot price with their moves? Picture Micheal Moore doing cannon ball into a small above-ground swimming pool.

3. Then there's opportunity. Remember May 1st 2011, when several large orders hit the silver market at a time when silver was thinly-traded (8:00 pm I think)? The 15% spot price decline tripped thousands of program trading limits forcing more selling. This was then followed up by at least five margin increases over the next 10 days or so forcing even more selling. Not only did this force the price down by a total of more than 30%, it decimated the accounts of various speculators. I suppose one way to hold down price of a commodity is to make sure that parties who are inclined to take long positions have a lot less money.

[Jonflyfish]

Conspiracy, no conspiracy, who cares? The chart doesn't demonstrate that there is or isn't any conspiracy, which is the problem for those who say it can't be traded becasue of the seemingly invisible presence of such.
That's my point. Some use it as a punchline and others use it for an excuse.
I ignore the noise and rhetoric. None of that matters. I just trade the tape.

To answer-
1. I don't care. It is only speculation and none of the rumors are corroborated or tradeable.
2. I don't care. You don't know any bank's position, even though you may think you do because a blog told you so etc. If JPM was short a gazillion ounces, as has been spewed for almost two years in the blogosphere, when would they have been able to roll these positions without getting killed and if so visible why wouldn't they have been squeezed into oblivion as so many predicted they would be? I'm sure there are new excuses and reasons as to why this never happeend. All of which would have done zippo for trading and/or stacking.
3. What opportunity? Do you know in advance about margin increases or decreases and how you think speculators will react?

The simple truth is price. Price is all you need to know. Anything else is unknowable.
Or, if you think you know something the banks don't know, becasue most here seem to believe that they are stupid (LOL guess again), beware of dis and mis information and always DYOD.

Cheers!

[theo]

Conspiracy, no conspiracy, who cares? The chart doesn't demonstrate that there is or isn't any conspiracy, which is the problem for those who say it can't be traded becasue of the seemingly invisible presence of such.
That's my point. Some use it as a punchline and others use it for an excuse.
I ignore the noise and rhetoric. None of that matters. I just trade the tape.

To answer-
1. I don't care. It is only speculation and none of the rumors are corroborated or tradeable.
2. I don't care. You don't know any bank's position, even though you may think you do because a blog told you so etc. If JPM was short a gazillion ounces, as has been spewed for almost two years in the blogosphere, when would they have been able to roll these positions without getting killed and if so visible why wouldn't they have been squeezed into oblivion as so many predicted they would be? I'm sure there are new excuses and reasons as to why this never happeend. All of which would have done zippo for trading and/or stacking.
3. What opportunity? Do you know in advance about margin increases or decreases and how you think speculators will react?

The simple truth is price. Price is all you need to know. Anything else is unknowable.
Or, if you think you know something the banks don't know, becasue most here seem to believe that they are stupid (LOL guess again), beware of dis and mis information and always DYOD.

Cheers!

1. I disagree. Speculation or not; it is clear, logical motive. No viable argument can be made for banks wanting (or even being neutral towards) higher PM prices. As you say it is not completely "knowable" but if the probable motives of large players in any market isn't "tradable", then nothing is. Afterall business is a social discipline.

2. Clearly, I'm out of my depth here, but when has that stopped me? However, multiple sources including (I believe) one Bloomberg article have discussed JPM's short-position. If its wrong, its wrong. But "you pays your and you takes your chance". How can they maintain this position without getting squeezed? No idea. But, I'm sure last year's collapse was very helpful (or perhaps even life-saving) to them. Given the secretive nature of the Fed, can you guarantee that JPM and others were not the beneficiaries of a surruptitious bailout? That too is unknowable. Right?

3. Any idea why regulators would impose five margin increases on the heals of a severe price decline? I've always had the impression that margin level adjustments were imposed to reduce volatility not add to it.

[Treetop]

Personally i fail to see how silver or gold follow TA could ever tell us the markets are not manipulated. In fact, theres no doubt if there is manipulation that those doing it would know the TA stuff as well as anyone and keep that in mind with their machinations.

yeah yeah, I know... you could say Im simply justifying what I believe is true.... I do believe in manipulation... but the fact remains if you didnt want to make it TO obvious what you are doing following what many feel the charts tell us SHOULD happen would be key, would it not???

thats my take anyway...

[Jonflyfish]

Conspiracy, no conspiracy, who cares? The chart doesn't demonstrate that there is or isn't any conspiracy, which is the problem for those who say it can't be traded becasue of the seemingly invisible presence of such.
That's my point. Some use it as a punchline and others use it for an excuse.
I ignore the noise and rhetoric. None of that matters. I just trade the tape.

To answer-
1. I don't care. It is only speculation and none of the rumors are corroborated or tradeable.
2. I don't care. You don't know any bank's position, even though you may think you do because a blog told you so etc. If JPM was short a gazillion ounces, as has been spewed for almost two years in the blogosphere, when would they have been able to roll these positions without getting killed and if so visible why wouldn't they have been squeezed into oblivion as so many predicted they would be? I'm sure there are new excuses and reasons as to why this never happeend. All of which would have done zippo for trading and/or stacking.
3. What opportunity? Do you know in advance about margin increases or decreases and how you think speculators will react?

The simple truth is price. Price is all you need to know. Anything else is unknowable.
Or, if you think you know something the banks don't know, becasue most here seem to believe that they are stupid (LOL guess again), beware of dis and mis information and always DYOD.

Cheers!

1. I disagree. Speculation or not; it is clear, logical motive. No viable argument can be made for banks wanting (or even being neutral towards) higher PM prices. As you say it is not completely "knowable" but if the probable motives of large players in any market isn't "tradable", then nothing is. Afterall business is a social discipline.

2. Clearly, I'm out of my depth here, but when has that stopped me? However, multiple sources including (I believe) one Bloomberg article have discussed JPM's short-position. If its wrong, its wrong. But "you pays your and you takes your chance". How can they maintain this position without getting squeezed? No idea. But, I'm sure last year's collapse was very helpful (or perhaps even life-saving) to them. Given the secretive nature of the Fed, can you guarantee that JPM and others were not the beneficiaries of a surruptitious bailout? That too is unknowable. Right?

3. Any idea why regulators would impose five margin increases on the heals of a severe price decline? I've always had the impression that margin level adjustments were adjusted to reduce volatility not add to it.

1. It doesn't matter because it is unknowable.
2. It doesn't matter. No need to guarantee who was or wan't a beneficiary.
3. It doesn't matter. Volatility is cyclical. So are margin requirements.
None of this matters. Price matters. Trying to determine and describe price movements after they hapen is for the bobbleheads on bubblevision. The stories sound interesting but do nothing for helping to make informed decisions. You could explain away any previous price activity with any story or punchline that appeals to various audiences but it means nothing. The price trends occur regardless of any superstion, rumor or feel good story to support your position but it sure makes a man feel good when there is a positive outcome- like they just kicked the banking institution square between the legs. However, if the outcome is opposite, just chalk it up to the manipulators or conspiracy crew. They were out to get you. Or, you could simply trade the flows and trade with the trends where the big $ is made.

Cheers!

[mbailey1234]

Wow what did I start by commenting on a possible chart formation????

Manipulation or not, I really don't care..... unless.....

If they are playing dirty and get on the wrong side that's their problem, not ours, correct? Probably not. If it works out for them then they cash in but if not, they either go broke and steal away all of the innocent people's money that had their life savings entrusted to their care, or Mr. Bern-iky just prints them out some more dollars to bail them out making all of ours worth less and less so it taxes all of us!

If they play fair, game on. I sure don't get a win win on my investments though. If it goes bad and I played with my lunch money I don't eat!

I guess if it bothers me bad enough, I just stay out of this market. Personally I am in it for the long haul and am still stacking so I don't mind a little better buying opportunity. After I get it stacked, I will try to only check things a couple of times a year (not likely) and try not to lose any sleep over the ups and downs during the rest of the time.

[theo]

"Trying to determine and describe price movements after they hapen is for the bobbleheads on bubblevision."

Umm. . . isn't that the point of technical analysis using charts, like the one you posted earlier?

So if the previous considerations are irrelevant, what types of information drives your trades? Are you a TA guy or do you go with plain future supply and demand?

I've enjoyed this

[Jonflyfish]

"Trying to determine and describe price movements after they hapen is for the bobbleheads on bubblevision."

Umm. . . isn't that the point of technical analysis using charts, like the one you posted earlier?

So if the previous considerations are irrelevant, what types of information drives your trades? Are you a TA guy or do you go with plain future supply and demand?

I've enjoyed this

To answer your first question- No. Technical analysis is for making current decisions. The bobbleheads on TV create stories in attempt to explain market activity i.e. "profit taking" etc but notice how they never report "profit giving"
What drives my trades is price analysis tools that identify when market conditions have changed from one structure to another. I'm a TA guy. There is no such thing as future supply and demand. The future is nonexistent.
Cheers!

[SoFa]

I don't understand the chart at all. It's not self explanatory, especially with regards to gaming the great manipulation theory.
I would be most interested in a little more explanation.